• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic reliability evaluation

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A Study on the Analytic Technique Combination and Evaluation of Development Process for Software Safety (S/W 안전성을 위한 분석기법 조합과 개발 프로세스 평가에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Soo;Ahn, Jin;Ha, Seung-Tea;Cho, Woo-Sik;Han, Chan-Hee
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2006.11b
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    • pp.1468-1476
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    • 2006
  • The goal of this thesis is to support safety and reliability characteristics of software intensive critical systems. The verification method developed is innovative from current state of the art in what concerns the verification viewpoint adopted: focusing on software faults, and not, like many other approaches purely on fulfilling functional requirements. As a first step and based on a number of well defined criteria a comparison was made of available literature in the area of static non formal non probabilistic software fault removal techniques. But, None of the techniques evaluated fulfilled all criteria set in isolation. Therefore a new technique was developed based on a combination of two existing techniques: the FMEA and FTA. These two techniques complement each other very well. It is possible to integrate both techniques with commonly used techniques at system level. The resulting new technique can be shown to combine nearly all aspects of existing fault removal techniques.

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Seismic fragility assessment of isolated structures by using stochastic response database

  • Eem, Seung-Hyun;Jung, Hyung-Jo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2018
  • The seismic isolation system makes a structure isolated from ground motions to protect the structure from seismic events. Seismic isolation techniques have been implemented in full-scale buildings and bridges because of their simplicity, economic effectiveness, inherent stability and reliability. As for the responses of an isolated structure due to seismic events, it is well known that the most uncertain aspects are the seismic loading itself and structural properties. Due to the randomness of earthquakes and uncertainty of structures, seismic response distributions of an isolated structure are needed when evaluating the seismic fragility assessment (or probabilistic seismic safety assessment) of an isolated structure. Seismic response time histories are useful and often essential elements in its design or evaluation stage. Thus, a large number of non-linear dynamic analyses should be performed to evaluate the seismic performance of an isolated structure. However, it is a monumental task to gather the design or evaluation information of the isolated structure from too many seismic analyses, which is impractical. In this paper, a new methodology that can evaluate the seismic fragility assessment of an isolated structure is proposed by using stochastic response database, which is a device that can estimate the seismic response distributions of an isolated structure without any seismic response analyses. The seismic fragility assessment of the isolated nuclear power plant is performed using the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology is able to evaluate the seismic performance of isolated structures effectively and reduce the computational efforts tremendously.

Evaluation of Dorim-Goh bridge using ambient trucks through short-period structural health monitoring system

  • Kaloop, Mosbeh R.;Hwang, Won Sup;Elbeltagi, Emad;Beshr, Ashraf;Hu, Jong Wan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.69 no.3
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    • pp.347-359
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    • 2019
  • This paper aims to evaluate the behavior of Dorim-Goh bridge in Seoul, Korea, under static and dynamic loads effects by ambient trucks. The prestressed concrete (PSC) girders and reinforcement concrete (RC) slab of the bridge are evaluated and assessed. A short period monitoring system is designed which comprises displacement, strain and accelerometer sensors to measure the bridge performance under static and dynamic trucks loads. The statistical analysis is used to assess the static behavior of the bridge and the wavelet analysis and probabilistic using Weibull distribution are used to evaluate the frequency and reliability of the dynamic behavior of the bridge. The results show that the bridge is safe under static and dynamic loading cases. In the static evaluation, the measured neutral axis position of the girders is deviated within 5% from its theoretical position. The dynamic amplification factor of the bridge girder and slab are lower than the design value of that factor. The Weibull shape parameters are decreased, it which means that the bridge performance decreases under dynamic loads effect. The bridge girder and slab's frequencies are higher than the design values and constant under different truck speeds.

Development of Profitability-forecasting Model for Apartment Reconstruction Projects using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도 분석 모형을 이용한 아파트 재건축사업의 수익성예측모델 개발)

  • Woo, Kwang-Min;Lee, Hak-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.54-59
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    • 2007
  • Recently, Apartment Reconstruction Projects are performing only with the basis of profitability without establishing either certain criteria or standard guideline. In addition, the profitability information contained in a disposal plan tends to be considered as a fixed value, and it is frequently changeable because reconstruction projects have such a long time to complete and many participants with respective interests. As mentioned above, the new approach needs to be developed which covers the limitation of the unvaried one. Consequently, this study focuses on the probability approach considering not only variances that affect the profit, but the relationship between profit and risk, and then is modeling. This study is anticipated to improve the reliability and accuracy of expected value as well as apply to the decision making criteria quantitively about potentially hidden risks in that projects.

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Constructing Database and Probabilistic Analysis for Ultimate Bearing Capacity of Aggregate Pier (쇄석다짐말뚝의 극한지지력 데이터베이스 구축 및 통계학적 분석)

  • Park, Joon-Mo;Kim, Bum-Joo;Jang, Yeon-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.8
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 2014
  • In load and resistance factor design (LRFD) method, resistance factors are typically calibrated using resistance bias factors obtained from either only the data within ${\pm}2{\sigma}$ or the data except the tail values of an assumed probability distribution to increase the reliability of the database. However, the data selection approach has a shortcoming that any low-quality data inadvertently included in the database may not be removed. In this study, a data quality evaluation method, developed based on the quality of static load test results, the engineering characteristics of in-situ soil, and the dimension of aggregate piers, is proposed for use in constructing database. For the evaluation of the method, a total 65 static load test results collected from various literatures, including static load test reports, were analyzed. Depending on the quality of the database, the comparison between bias factors, coefficients of variation, and resistance factors showed that uncertainty in estimating bias factors can be reduced by using the proposed data quality evaluation method when constructing database.

An Improved Reliability-Based Design Optimization using Moving Least Squares Approximation (이동최소자승근사법을 이용한 개선된 신뢰도 기반 최적설계)

  • Kang, Soo-Chang;Koh, Hyun-Moo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.1A
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2009
  • In conventional structural design, deterministic optimization which satisfies codified constraints is performed to ensure safety and maximize economical efficiency. However, uncertainties are inevitable due to the stochastic nature of structural materials and applied loads. Thus, deterministic optimization without considering these uncertainties could lead to unreliable design. Recently, there has been much research in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) taking into consideration both the reliability and optimization. RBDO involves the evaluation of probabilistic constraint that can be estimated using the RIA (Reliability Index Approach) and the PMA(Performance Measure Approach). It is generally known that PMA is more stable and efficient than RIA. Despite the significant advancement in PMA, RBDO still requires large computation time for large-scale applications. In this paper, A new reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) method is presented to achieve the more stable and efficient algorithm. The idea of the new method is to integrate a response surface method (RSM) with PMA. For the approximation of a limit state equation, the moving least squares (MLS) method is used. Through a mathematical example and ten-bar truss problem, the proposed method shows better convergence and efficiency than other approaches.

The Development of Probabilistic Power Quality Evaluation Method for Electrical Distribution System (배전시스템 전기설비 구성에 따른 확률론적 전력품질의 정량적 평가기법 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Ha;Lee, Sung-Jun;Woo, Sung-Min;Lim, Hyun-Sung;Son, Seung-Ki;Ku, Min-Seo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.34-43
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a methodology on the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) to calculate unified power quality index which provide an overall assessment of the distribution system performance. To obtain the unified power quality index. we propose the use of the AHP model and consider contingency using Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method is especially useful and effective for planning. We have applied the proposed method to an actual relatively large system.

Reliable Gossip Zone for Real-Time Communications in Wireless Sensor Networks

  • Li, Bijun;Kim, Ki-Il
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.244-250
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    • 2011
  • Gossip is a well-known protocol which was proposed to implement broadcast service with a high reliability in an arbitrarily connected network of sensor nodes. The probabilistic techniques employed in gossip have been used to address many challenges which are caused by flooding in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, very little work has yet been done on real-time wireless sensor networks which require not only highly reliable packets reception but also strict time constraint of each packet. Moreover, the unique energy constraining feature of sensor makes existing solutions unsuitable. Combined with unreliable links, redundant messages overhead in real-time wireless sensor networks is a new challenging issue. In this paper, we introduce a Reliable Gossip Zone, a novel fine-tailored mechanism for real-time wireless sensor networks with unreliable wireless links and low packet redundancy. The key idea is the proposed forwarding probability algorithm, which makes forwarding decisions after the realtime flooding zone is set. Evaluation shows that as an oracle broadcast service design, our mechanism achieves significantly less message overhead than traditional flooding and gossip protocols.

Development of a Computer Code for Low-and Intermediate-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Safety Assessment

  • Park, J.W.;Kim, C.L.;Lee, E.Y.;Lee, Y.M.;Kang, C.H.;Zhou, W.;Kozak, M.W.
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2004
  • A safety assessment code, called SAGE (Safety Assessment Groundwater Evaluation), has been developed to describe post-closure radionuclide releases and potential radiological doses for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) disposal in an engineered vault facility in Korea. The conceptual model implemented in the code is focused on the release of radionuclide from a gradually degrading engineered barrier system to an underlying unsaturated zone, thence to a saturated groundwater zone. The radionuclide transport equations are solved by spatially discretizing the disposal system into a series of compartments. Mass transfer between compartments is by diffusion/dispersion and advection. In all compartments, radionuclides ate decayed either as a single-member chain or as multi-member chains. The biosphere is represented as a set of steady-state, radionuclide-specific pathway dose conversion factors that are multiplied by the appropriate release rate from the far field for each pathway. The code has the capability to treat input parameters either deterministically or probabilistically. Parameter input is achieved through a user-friendly Graphical User Interface. An application is presented, which is compared against safety assessment results from the other computer codes, to benchmark the reliability of system-level conceptual modeling of the code.

THE APPLICATION OF PSA TECHNIQUES TO THE VITAL AREA IDENTIFICATION OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • HA JAEJOO;JUNG WOO SIK;PARK CHANG-KUE
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.259-264
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a vital area identification (VAI) method based on the current fault tree analysis (FTA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) techniques for the physical protection of nuclear power plants. A structured framework of a top event prevention set analysis (TEPA) application to the VAI of nuclear power plants is also delineated. One of the important processes for physical protection in a nuclear power plant is VAI that is a process for identifying areas containing nuclear materials, structures, systems or components (SSCs) to be protected from sabotage, which could directly or indirectly lead to core damage and unacceptable radiological consequences. A software VIP (Vital area Identification Package based on the PSA method) is being developed by KAERI for the VAI of nuclear power plants. Furthermore, the KAERI fault tree solver FTREX (Fault Tree Reliability Evaluation eXpert) is specialized for the VIP to generate the candidates of the vital areas. FTREX can generate numerous MCSs for a huge fault tree with the lowest truncation limit and all possible prevention sets.