• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.565-578
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• 2016

A probabilistic based systems approach is addressed in this study for the reliability prediction of solid rocket motors (SRM). To achieve this goal, quantitative Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) approach is employed to determine the reliability of components, which are integrated into the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to obtain the system reliability. The quantitative FMECA is implemented by burden and capability approach when they are available. Otherwise, the semi-quantitative FMECA is taken using the failure rate handbook. Among the many failure modes in the SRM, four most important problems are chosen to illustrate the burden and capability approach, which are the rupture, fracture of the case, and leak due to the jointed bolt and O-ring seal failure. Four algorithms are employed to determine the failure probability of these problems, and compared with those by the Monte Carlo Simulation as well as the commercial code NESSUS for verification. Overall, the study offers a comprehensive treatment of the reliability practice for the SRM development, and may be useful across the wide range of propulsion systems in the aerospace community.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.101-109
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• 2004

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.101-115
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• 2013

This paper examines the application of structural reliability analysis to submarine pressure hulls to clarify the merits of probabilistic approach in respect thereof. Ultimate strength prediction methods which take the inelastic behavior of ring-stiffened cylindrical shells and hemi-spherical shells into account are reviewed. The modeling uncertainties in terms of bias and coefficient of variation for failure prediction methods in current design guidelines are defined by evaluating the compiled experimental data. A simple ultimate strength formulation for ring-stiffened cylinders taking into account the interaction between local and global failure modes and an ultimate strength formula for hemispherical shells which have better accuracy and reliability than current design codes are taken as basis for reliability analysis. The effects of randomness of geometrical and material properties on failure are assessed by a prelimnary study on reference models. By evaluation of sensitivity factors important variables are determined and comparesons are made with conclusions of previous reliability studies.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제71권6호
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• pp.739-749
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• 2019

This article deals with the application of reliability analysis for determining the safety of simply supported beam under the uniformly distributed load. The uncertainties of the existing methods were taken into account and hence reliability analysis has been adopted. To accomplish this aim, Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) models are developed. Reliability analysis is the probabilistic style to determine the possibility of failure free operation of a structure. The application of probabilistic mathematics into the quantitative aspects of a structure and improve the qualitative aspects of a structure. In order to construct the GRNN, ELM and GPR models, the dataset contains Modulus of Elasticity (E), Load intensity (w) and performance function (${\delta}$) in which E and w are inputs and ${\delta}$ is the output. The achievement of the developed models was weighed by various statistical parameters; one among the most primitive parameter is Coefficient of Determination ($R^2$) which has 0.998 for training and 0.989 for testing. The GRNN outperforms the other ELM and GPR models. Other different statistical computations have been carried out, which speaks out the errors and prediction performance in order to justify the capability of the developed models.

• 대기
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.405-420
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• 2020

In this study, we investigate the predictability of intraseasonal monthly temperature and precipitation variations using hindcast datasets from eight global circulation models participating in the operational multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center for the 1983~2010 period. These intraseasonal monthly variations are defined by categorical deterministic analysis. The monthly temperature and precipitation are categorized into above normal (AN), near normal (NN), and below normal (BN) based on the σ-value ± 0.43 after standardization. The nine patterns of intraseasonal monthly variation are defined by considering the changing pattern of the monthly categories for the three consecutive months. A deterministic and a probabilistic analysis are used to define intraseasonal monthly variation for the multi-model consisting of numerous ensemble members. The results show that a pattern (pattern 7), which has the same monthly categories in three consecutive months, is the most frequently occurring pattern in observation regardless of the seasons and variables. Meanwhile, the patterns (e.g., patterns 8 and 9) that have consistently increasing or decreasing trends in three consecutive months, such as BN-NN-AN or AN-NN-BN, occur rarely in observation. The MME and eight individual models generally capture pattern 7 well but rarely capture patterns 8 and 9.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.469-479
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• 2023

A probabilistic seismic damage analysis is an essential procedure to identify seismically vulnerable structures, prioritize the seismic retrofit, and ultimately minimize the overall seismic risk. To assess the seismic risk of multiple structures within a region, a large number of nonlinear time-history structural analyses must be conducted and studied. As a result, each assessment requires high computing resources. To overcome this limitation, we explore a deep learning-based metamodel to enable the prediction of the mean and the standard deviation of the seismic damage distribution of track-on steel-plate girder railway bridges in Korea considering the geometric variation. For machine learning training, nonlinear dynamic time-history analyses are performed to generate 800 high-fidelity datasets on the seismic response. Through intensive trial and error, the study is concentrated on developing an optimal machine learning architecture with the pre-identified variables of the physical configuration of the bridge. Additionally, the prediction performance of the proposed method is compared with a previous, well-defined, response surface model. Finally, the statistical testing results indicate that the overall performance of the deep-learning model is improved compared to the response surface model, as its errors are reduced by as much as 61%. In conclusion, the model proposed in this study can be effectively deployed for the seismic fragility and risk assessment of a region with a large number of structures.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.217-229
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• 1994

Lade의 Double surface와 Single surface 구성모델의 변형을 예측의 정도를 비교평가하기 위하여 백마강모래로 두 구성식의 토질매개변수를 다수 구하고 각 변수의 통계치를 분석하였다. 이 통계치를 이용하여 일반함수의 변동계수를 산정하는 1계근사법으로 두 구성모델의 변형율에 대한 변동계수를 해석하였다. 그 결과 각 토질매개변수의 결정에는 Single surface 구성모델의 변수가 Double surface 구성모델의 변수보다 변동계수가 작게 나타나므로 매개변수결정에 일관성이 있는 반면 확률론으로 해석한 축 변형율의 변동계수는 Double surface 구성모텔에서 안정된 값을 나타내고 있으며, 체적 변형율에서는 두 구성모델 모두 안정된 해석결과를 보인다. 이는 두 구성모델의 특성을 비교한 다른 연구 결과와 일치하는 경향으로서 확률론에 의한 구성식의 평가가 효과적인 수단임을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.13-21
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• 2016

주수급자 역할을 하는 건설기업의 부실화는 발주자에게 공사계약 미이행에 따른 피해를 초래할 수 있고, 전문건설업체 및 자재공급업체의 재무건전성에 악영향을 줄 수 있다. 건설업은 프로젝트를 수주하고 진도에 따라 기성을 받는 현금흐름의 재무적 특성이 존재하고, 사업 진행 중의 부실화는 투입한 자금의 손실로 이어질 수 있으므로 건설업체의 부실화 예측은 중요하다. 국내 건설업체의 부실화 예측은 90년도 초 미국에서 개발된 KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek)사의 KMV모형으로 수행되는 경우도 있지만, 이 모형은 일반적인 기업 및 은행의 신용위험 평가에 개발되어져 건설기업 예측력에는 부족함이 있다. 또한, KMV값의 부도확률 예측력에 대해서는 분석대상의 기업수 및 데이터의 부족으로 의문점이 지속적으로 제기되고 있다. 따라서 이러한 의문점을 해결하기 위해 기존 부도예측확률모형에 베이지안 확률적 접근법(Bayesian Probabilistic Approach)을 접목하고자 한다. 베이즈 통계학의 사전확률(Prior Probability)만 적절하게 예측가능하다면 적은 정보라도 증거에 대한 조건부 획득으로 신뢰성 있는 사후확률(Posterior Probability)을 예측할 수 있기 때문이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기존 부도예측확률모형에 베이지안 확률적 접근법을 활용하여 예상부도확률(Expected Default Frequency, EDF)을 측정하고, 기존 모형의 예상부도확률과 비교하여 정확성을 예측하고자 한다.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:컴퓨팅의 실제 및 레터
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.299-308
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• 2004

최근 단백질 및 도메인과 관련된 방대한 양의 데이타들이 인터넷상에 공표되고 축적됨에 따라, 단백질간의 상호작용에 대한 예측 시스템의 필요성이 제기되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 데이타를 이용하여 계산적으로 도메인 조합 쌍에 기반하여 단백질의 상호작용 확률을 예측하는 새로운 단백질 상호작용 예측 시스템을 제안한다. 제안된 예측 시스템에서는 기존의 도메인 쌍(domain pair)의 제약성을 극복하기 위하여 도메인 조합(domain combination)과 도메인 조합 쌍(domain combination pair)의 개념이 새롭게 도입하였다. 그리고 도메인 조합 쌍(domain combination pair 또는 dc-pair)을 단백질 상호작용의 기본 단위로 간주하고 예측을 시도한다. 예측 시스템은 크게 예측 준비 과정과 서비스 과정으로 구성되어 있다. 예측 준비 과정에서는 상호작용이 있는 것으로 알려진 단백질 쌍 집합과 상호작용이 없는 것으로 추정되는 단백질 도메인 쌍 집합으로부터 각각 도메인 조합 정보와 그 출현 빈도를 추출한다. 추출된 정보들은 출현 확률 배열(Appearance Probability Matrix 또는 AP matrix)로 불리는 배열 구조에 저장된다. 논문에서는 출현 확률 배열에 기반을 두어, 단백질-단백질 상호작용을 예측하는 확률식 PIP(Primary Interaction Probability)를 고안하고, 고안된 확률식을 이용하여, 상호작용이 있는 것으로 알려진 단백질 쌍 집합과 상호작용이 없는 것으로 추정되는 단백질 도메인 쌍 집합의 확률 값 분포를 생성시킨다. 예측서비스 과정에서는 예측 준비 과정에서 얻어진 분포와 확률식을 이용하여 임의의 단백질 쌍의 상호작용 확률을 계산한다. 예측 모델의 유효성은 효모(yeast)에서 상호작용이 있는 것으로 보고된 단백질 쌍 집합과 상호작용이 없는 것으로 추정되는 단백질 쌍 집합을 이용하여 검증하였다. DIP(Database of Inter-acting Proteins)의 상호작용이 있는 것으로 알려진 효모 단백질 쌍 집합의 80%를 학습 집단으로 사용했을 때, 86%의 sensitivity와 56%의 specificity를 나타내어, 도메인을 기반으로 한 기존의 예측 시스템에 비해서 우월한 예측 정확도를 보여주었다. 이와 같은 예측 정확도의 개선은 본 예측 시스템이 상호작용의 기본 단위로 dc-pair를 채택한 점과 분류를 위하여 새롭게 고안하여 사용한 PIP식이 유효했던 것으로 판단된다.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.124-131
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• 2012

This paper provides prediction of ultimate longitudinal strengths of hull girder of a VLCC considering probabilistic damage extents due to collision and grounding accidents based on IMO Guideline(2003). The probability density functions of damage extents are expressed as a function of nondimensional damage variables. The accumulated probability levels of 10%, 30%, 50%, and 70% are taken into account for the damage extent estimation. The ultimate strengths have been calculated using in-house software UMADS (Ultimate Moment Analysis of Damaged Ships) which is based on the progressive collapse method. Damage indices are provided for all heeling angles due to any possible flooding of compartments from $0^{\circ}$ to $180^{\circ}$ which represent from sagging to hogging conditions, respectively. The analysis results reveal that minimum damage indices show different values according to heeling angles and damage levels.