• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Models

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Statistical Analysis of Resistance of Rein forced Concrete Members (철근 콘크리트 부재강도의 확률적 특성 분석)

  • 김상효;배규웅;박흥석
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 1990.04a
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    • pp.90-95
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    • 1990
  • It is widely recognized that the strengths of reinforced concrete members have random characteristics due to the variability of the mechanical properties of concrete and steel, the dimensional error as well as incorrect placement of reinforcing bars. Statistical models of the variabilities of strengths of reinforced concrete members, therefore, need to be developed to evaluate the safety level implied in current practices. Based on the probabilistic models of basic factors affecting the R.C. member strengths, in this study, the probabilistic characteristics of member resistance have been studied through Monte Carlo simulation.

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Probabilistic Part-Of-Speech Determination for Efficient English-Korean Machine Translation (효율적 영한기계번역을 위한 확률적 품사결정)

  • Kim, Sung-Dong;Kim, Il-Min
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.17B no.6
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    • pp.459-466
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    • 2010
  • Natural language processing has several ambiguity problems, and English-Korean machine translation especially includes those problems to be solved in each translation step. This paper focuses on resolving part-of-speech ambiguity of English words in order to improve the efficiency of English analysis, which is in part of efforts for developing practical English-Korean machine translation system. In order to improve the efficiency of the English analysis, the part-of-speech determination must be fast and accurate for being integrated with machine translation system. This paper proposes the probabilistic models for part-of-speech determination. We use Penn Treebank corpus in building the probabilistic models. In experiment, we present the performance of the part-of-speech determination models and the efficiency improvement of the machine translation system by the proposed part-of-speech determination method.

Multistress Life Models of Epoxy Encapsulated Magnet wire under High Frequency Pulsating Voltage

  • Grzybowski, S.;Feilat, E.A.;Knight, P.
    • KIEE International Transactions on Electrophysics and Applications
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    • v.3C no.1
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    • pp.1-4
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents an attempt to develop probabilistic multistress life models to evaluate the lifetime characteristics of epoxy-encapsulated magnet wire with heavy build polyurethane enamel. A set of accelerated life tests were conducted over a wide range of pulsating voltages, temperatures, and frequencies. Samples of fine gauge twisted pairs of the encapsulated magnet wire were tested us-ing a pulse endurance dielectric test system. An electrical-thermal lifetime function was combined with the Weibull distribution of lifetimes. The parameters of the combined Weibull-electrical-thermal model were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation. Likewise, a generalized electrical-thermal-frequency life model was also developed. The parameters of this new model were estimated using multiple linear regression technique. It was found in this paper that lifetime estimates of the two proposed probabilistic multistress life models are good enough. This suggests the suitability of using the general electrical-thermal-frequency model to estimate the lifetime of the encapsulated magnet wire over a wide range of voltages, temperatures and pulsating frequencies.

Probabilistic evaluation of separation distance between two adjacent structures

  • Naeej, Mojtaba;Amiri, Javad Vaseghi;Jalali, Sayyed Ghasem
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.67 no.5
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    • pp.427-437
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    • 2018
  • Structural pounding is commonly observed phenomenon during major ground motion, which can cause both structural and architectural damages. To reduce the amount of damage from pounding, the best and effective way is to increase the separation distance. Generally, existing design procedures for determining the separation distance between adjacent buildings subjected to structural pounding are based on approximations of the buildings' peak relative displacement. These procedures are based on unknown safety levels. The aim of this research is to estimate probabilistic separation distance between adjacent structures by considering the variability in the system and uncertainties in the earthquakes characteristics through comprehensive numerical simulations. A large number of models were generated using a robust Monte-Carlo simulation. In total, 6.54 million time-history analyses were performed over the adopted models using an ensemble of 25 ground motions as seismic input within OpenSees software. The results show that a gap size of 50%, 70% and 100% of the considered design code for the structural periods in the range of 0.1-0.5 s, leads to have the probability of pounding about 41.5%, 18% and 5.8%, respectively. Finally, based on the results, two equations are developed for probabilistic determination of needed structural separation distance.

Informatics Network Representation Using Probabilistic Graphical Models of Network Genetics (유전자 네트워크에서 확률적 그래프 모델을 이용한 정보 네트워크 추론)

  • Ra Sang-Dong;Park Dong-Suk;Youn Young-Ji
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.1386-1392
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    • 2006
  • This study is a numerical representative modelling analysis for applying the process that unravels networks between cells in genetics to WWW of informatics. Using the probabilistic graphical model, the insight from the data describing biological networks is used for making a probabilistic function. Rather than a complex network of cells, we reconstruct a simple lower-stage model and show a genetic representation level from the genetic based network logic. We made probabilistic graphical models from genetic data and extends them to genetic representation data in the method of network modelling in informatics.

Informatics Network Representation Between Cells Using Probabilistic Graphical Models (확률적 그래프 모델을 이용한 세포 간 정보 네트워크 추론)

  • Ra, Sang-Dong;Shin, Hyun-Jae;Cha, Wol-Suk
    • KSBB Journal
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.231-235
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    • 2006
  • This study is a numerical representative modeling analysis for the application of the process that unravels networks between cells in genetics to web of informatics. Using the probabilistic graphical model, the insight from the data describing biological networks is used for making a probabilistic function. Rather than a complex network of cells, we reconstruct a simple lower-stage model and show a genetic representation level from the genetic based network logic. We made probabilistic graphical models from genetic data and extends them to genetic representation data in the method of network modeling in informatics

Bayesian demand model based seismic vulnerability assessment of a concrete girder bridge

  • Bayat, M.;Kia, M.;Soltangharaei, V.;Ahmadi, H.R.;Ziehl, P.
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.337-343
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    • 2020
  • In the present study, by employing fragility analysis, the seismic vulnerability of a concrete girder bridge, one of the most common existing structural bridge systems, has been performed. To this end, drift demand model as a fundamental ingredient of any probabilistic decision-making analyses is initially developed in terms of the two most common intensity measures, i.e., PGA and Sa (T1). Developing a probabilistic demand model requires a reliable database that is established in this paper by performing incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) under a set of 20 ground motion records. Next, by employing Bayesian statistical inference drift demand models are developed based on pre-collapse data obtained from IDA. Then, the accuracy and reasonability of the developed models are investigated by plotting diagnosis graphs. This graphical analysis demonstrates probabilistic demand model developed in terms of PGA is more reliable. Afterward, fragility curves according to PGA based-demand model are developed.

Probabilistic models for curvature ductility and moment redistribution of RC beams

  • Baji, Hassan;Ronagh, Hamid Reza
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.191-207
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    • 2015
  • It is generally accepted that, in the interest of safety, it is essential to provide a minimum level of flexural ductility, which will allow energy dissipation and moment redistribution as required. If one wishes to be uniformly conservative across all of the design variables, curvature ductility and moment redistribution factor should be calculated using a probabilistic method, as is the case for other design parameters in reinforced concrete mechanics. In this study, simple expressions are derived for the evaluation of curvature ductility and moment redistribution factor, based on the concept of demand and capacity rotation. Probabilistic models are then derived for both the curvature ductility and the moment redistribution factor, by means of central limit theorem and through taking advantage of the specific behaviour of moment redistribution factor as a function of curvature ductility and plastic hinge length. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method is used to check and verify the results of the proposed method. Although some minor simplifications are made in the proposed method, there is a very good agreement between the MCS and the proposed method. The proposed method could be used in any future probabilistic evaluation of curvature ductility and moment redistribution factors.

Insights gained from applying negate-down during quantification for seismic probabilistic safety assessment

  • Kim, Ji Suk;Kim, Man Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.8
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    • pp.2933-2940
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    • 2022
  • Approximations such as the delete-term approximation, rare event approximation, and minimal cutset upper bound (MCUB) need to be prudently applied for the quantification of a seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model. Important characteristics of seismic PSA models indicate that preserving the success branches in a primary seismic event tree is necessary. Based on the authors' experience in modeling and quantifying plant-level seismic PSA models, the effects of applying negate-down to the success branches in primary seismic event trees on the quantification results are summarized along with the following three insights gained: (1) there are two competing effects on the MCUB-based quantification results: one tending to increase and the other tending to decrease; (2) the binary decision diagram does not always provide exact quantification results; and (3) it is identified when the exact results will be obtained, and which combination provides more conservative results compared to the others. Complicated interactions occur in Boolean variable manipulation, approximation, and the quantification of a seismic PSA model. The insights presented herein can assist PSA analysts to better understand the important theoretical principles associated with the quantification of seismic PSA models.

Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization

  • Ayoub, Ali;Kroger, Wolfgang;Sornette, Didier
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.8
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    • pp.2924-2932
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    • 2022
  • Motivated by learning from experience and exploiting existing knowledge in civil nuclear operations, we have developed in-house generic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models for pressurized and boiling water reactors. The models are computationally light, handy, transparent, user-friendly, and easily adaptable to account for major plant-specific differences. They cover the common internal initiating events, frontline and support systems reliability and dependencies, human-factors, common-cause failures, and account for new factors typically overlooked in many PSAs. For quantification, the models use generic US reliability data, precursor analysis reports, the ETHZ Curated Nuclear Events Database, and experts' opinions. Moreover, uncertainties in the most influential basic events are addressed. The generated results show good agreement with assessments available in the literature with detailed PSAs. We envision the models as an unbiased framework to measure nuclear operational risk with the same "ruler", and hence support inter-plant risk comparisons that are usually not possible due to differences in plant-specific PSA assumptions and scopes. The models can be used for initial risk screening, order-of-magnitude precursor analysis, and other research/pedagogic applications especially when no plant-specific PSAs are available. Finally, we are using the generic models for large-scale precursor analysis that will generate big picture trends, lessons, and insights.