• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제50권8호
• /
• pp.1217-1233
• /
• 2018

Following a surge of interest in multi-unit risk in the last few years, many recent studies have suggested methods for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (MUPSA) and addressed several related aspects. Most of the existing studies though focused on two-unit nuclear power plant (NPP) sites or used rather simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models to demonstrate the proposed approaches. When considering an NPP site with three or more units, some approaches are inapplicable or yield very conservative results. Since the number of such sites is increasing, there is a strong need to develop and validate practical approaches to the related MUPSA. This article provides several detailed approaches that are applicable to multi-unit Level 1 PSA for sites with up to six or more reactor units. To validate the approaches, a multi-unit Level 1 PSA model is developed and the site core damage frequency is estimated for each of four representative multi-unit initiators, as well as for the case of a simultaneous occurrence of independent single-unit initiators in multiple units. For this purpose, an NPP site with six identical OPR-1000 units is considered, with full-scale Level 1 PSA models for a specific OPR-1000 plant used as the base single-unit models.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.197-197
• /
• 2016

Forecasting future drought events in a region plays a major role in water management and risk assessment of drought occurrences. The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought's effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, a new probabilistic scheme is proposed to forecast droughts, in which a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) is used aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess the drought severity over the selected five stations in South Kore. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used for inference on the model parameters which includes several hidden states and the state specific parameters. We perform an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to derive a probabilistic forecast that considers uncertainties. Results showed that the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, are much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times over the study sites. In addition, the probabilistic forecast verification technique, which includes the ranked probability skill score and the relative operating characteristic, is performed on the proposed model to check the performance. It is found that the HMM-RCP provides a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought severity categories, even with a long lead time. The overall results indicate that the proposed HMM-RCP shows a powerful skill for probabilistic drought forecasting.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• 제38권4호
• /
• pp.309-323
• /
• 2024

The gust factor and turbulence intensity are two crucial parameters that characterize the properties of turbulence. In tropical cyclones (TCs), these parameters exhibit significant variability, yet there is a lack of established formulas to account for their probabilistic characteristics with consideration of their inherent connection. On this condition, a probabilistic analysis of gust factors and turbulence intensities of TCs is conducted based on fourteen sets of wind data collected at the Sutong Cable-stayed Bridge site. Initially, the turbulence intensities and gust factors of recorded data are computed, followed by an analysis of their probability densities across different ranges categorized by mean wind speed. The Gaussian, lognormal, and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions are employed to fit the measured probability densities, with subsequent evaluation of their effectiveness. The Gumbel distribution, which is a specific instance of the GEV distribution, has been identified as an optimal choice for probabilistic characterizations of turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. The corresponding empirical models are then established through curve fitting. By utilizing the Gumbel distribution as a template, the nexus between the probability density functions of turbulence intensity and gust factor is built, leading to the development of a generalized probabilistic model that statistically describe turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. Finally, these empirical models are validated using measured data and compared with suggestions recommended by specifications.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제17권1호
• /
• pp.91-99
• /
• 2019

Fragility analysis is an effective tool that is frequently used for seismic risk assessment of bridges. There are three different approaches to derive a fragility curve: experimental, empirical and analytical. Both experimental and empirical methods to derive fragility curve are based on past earthquake reports and expert opinions which are not suitable for all bridges. Therefore, analytical fragility analysis becomes important. Nonlinear time history analysis is commonly used which is the most reliable method for determining probabilistic demand models. In this study, to determine the probabilistic demand models of bridges, time history analyses were performed considering both material and geometrical nonlinearities. Serviceability limit states for three different service velocities were considered as a performance goal. Also, support displacements, component yielding and collapse limits were taken into account. Both serviceability and component fragility were derived by using maximum likely hood methods. Finally, the seismic performance and critical members of the bridge were probabilistically determined and clearly presented.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제44권8호
• /
• pp.961-970
• /
• 2012

Often, probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) approaches have been adopted to quantify the failure probabilities of Ni-base alloy components, especially due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC), in a primary piping system of pressurized water reactors. In this paper, the key features of an advanced PFM code, PINEP-PWSCC (Probabilistic INtegrity Evaluation for nuclear Piping-PWSCC) for such purpose, are described. In developing the code, we adopted most recent research results and advanced models in calculation modules such as PWSCC crack initiation and growth models, a performance-based probability of detection (POD) model for Ni-base alloy welds, and so on. To verify the code, the failure probabilities for various Alloy 182 welds locations were evaluated and compared with field experience and other PFM codes. Finally, the effects of pre-existing crack, weld repair, and POD models on failure probability were evaluated to demonstrate the applicability of PINEP-PWSCC.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
• /
• 대한원격탐사학회 2004년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2004
• /
• pp.622-625
• /
• 2004

This paper presents multi-source spatial data integration models based on probability theory for landslide hazard assessment. Four probabilistic models such as empirical likelihood ratio estimation, logistic regression, generalized additive and predictive discriminant models are proposed and applied. The models proposed here are theoretically based on statistical relationships between landslide occurrences and input spatial data sets. Those models especially have the advantage of direct use of continuous data without any information loss. A case study from the Gangneung area, Korea was carried out to quantitatively assess those four models and to discuss operational issues.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• 제49권1호
• /
• pp.109-123
• /
• 2023

Headed studs welded to steel beams and embedded within the concrete of deck slabs are vital components of modern composite floor systems, where safety and economy depend on the accurate predictions of the stud shear resistance. The multitude of existing deck profiles and the complex behavior of studs in deck slab ribs makes developing accurate and reliable mechanical or empirical design models challenging. The paper addresses this issue by presenting a machine learning (ML) model developed from the natural gradient boosting (NGBoost) algorithm capable of producing probabilistic predictions and a database of 464 push-out tests, which is considerably larger than the databases used for developing existing design models. The proposed model outperforms models based on other ML algorithms and existing descriptive equations, including those in EC4 and AISC 360, while offering probabilistic predictions unavailable from other models and producing higher shear resistances for many cases. The present study also showed that the stud shear resistance is insensitive to the concrete elastic modulus, stud welding type, location of slab reinforcement, and other parameters considered important by existing models. The NGBoost model was interpreted by evaluating the feature importance and dependence determined with the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The model was calibrated via reliability analyses in accordance with the Eurocodes to ensure that its predictions meet the required reliability level and facilitate its use in design. An interactive open-source web application was created and deployed to the cloud to allow for convenient and rapid stud shear resistance predictions with the developed model.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• 제15권4호
• /
• pp.324-334
• /
• 2016

Manufacturers and retailers are interested in how prices, promotions, discounts and other marketing variables can influence the sales and shares of the products that they produce or sell. Therefore, many models have been developed to predict the brand share. Since the customer choice models are usually used to predict the market share, here we use hybrid model of Probabilistic Neural Network and Artificial Bee colony Algorithm (PNN-ABC) that we have introduced to model consumer choice to predict brand share. The evaluation process is carried out using the same data set that we have used for modeling individual consumer choices in a retail coffee market. Then, to show good performance of this model we compare it with Artificial Neural Network with one hidden layer, Artificial Neural Network with two hidden layer, Artificial Neural Network trained with genetic algorithms (ANN-GA), and Probabilistic Neural Network. The evaluated results show that the offered model is outperforms better than other previous models, so it can be use as an effective tool for modeling consumer choice and predicting market share.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Broadcast Engineers Conference
• /
• 한국방송공학회 2009년도 IWAIT
• /
• pp.128-135
• /
• 2009

In this paper, we proposed an interactive GUI (Graphical User Interface) system to model buildings with an editable script. Our system also provides probabilistic finite-state machine (PFSM) to define the relationships of sub-models with transformation matrices and transition probabilities for constructing new novel building models automatically. User can not only get various building models by PFSM but also adjust the probabilities of sub-models from PFSM to get desired building models. As shown in the results, the various and vivid building models can be constructed easily and quickly for non-expert users. Besides, user can also edit the script file which is provided by our system to modify the properties directly.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제19권5호
• /
• pp.379-393
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this study is to first evaluate the seismic behavior of ageing arch bridges by using the Intensity Measure - based demand and DCFD format, which is referred to as the fragility-hazard format. Then, an investigation is performed for their seismic vulnerability. Analytical models are created for bridges concerning different features and these models are subjected to Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) analysis using a set of 22 earthquake records. The hazard curve and results of IDA analysis are employed to evaluate the return period of exceeding the limit states in the IM-based probabilistic performance-based context. Subsequently, the fragility-hazard format is used to assess factored demand, factored capacity, and the ratio of the factored demand to the factored capacity of the models with respect to different performance objectives. Finally, the vulnerability curves are obtained for the investigated bridges in terms of the loss ratio. The results revealed that decreasing the span length of the unreinforced arch bridges leads to the increase in the return period of exceeding various limit states and factored capacity and decrease in the displacement demand, the probability of failure, the factored demand, as well as the factored demand to factored capacity ratios, loss ratio, and seismic vulnerability. Finally, it is derived that the probability of the need for rehabilitation increases by an increase in the span length of the models.