• 국제학술발표논문집
• /
• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
• /
• pp.534-541
• /
• 2011

Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

• ETRI Journal
• /
• 제36권5호
• /
• pp.714-720
• /
• 2014

In this paper, we propose the use of data-driven probabilistic utterance-level decision logic to improve Weighted Finite State Transducer (WFST)-based endpoint detection. In general, endpoint detection is dealt with using two cascaded decision processes. The first process is frame-level speech/non-speech classification based on statistical hypothesis testing, and the second process is a heuristic-knowledge-based utterance-level speech boundary decision. To handle these two processes within a unified framework, we propose a WFST-based approach. However, a WFST-based approach has the same limitations as conventional approaches in that the utterance-level decision is based on heuristic knowledge and the decision parameters are tuned sequentially. Therefore, to obtain decision knowledge from a speech corpus and optimize the parameters at the same time, we propose the use of data-driven probabilistic utterance-level decision logic. The proposed method reduces the average detection failure rate by about 14% for various noisy-speech corpora collected for an endpoint detection evaluation.

• 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국해양공학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.232-237
• /
• 2001

The evaluation of specimen thickness effect of fatigue crack growth life by the simulation of probabilistic fatigue crack growth is presented. In this paper, the material resistance to fatigue crack growth is treated as a spatial stochastic process, which varies randomly on the crack surface. Using the previous experimental data, the non-Gaussian(eventually Weibull, in this report) random fields simulation method is applied. This method is useful to estimate the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and the variability due to specimen thickness by simulating material resistance to fatigue crack growth along a crack path.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한기계학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
• /
• pp.154-159
• /
• 2004

In this study, in order to perform more efficiently reliability design and integrity assessment of structural members, the relational database management program on the engineering plastics was constructed. This program contained 476 grades for 14 kinds of the engineering plastics and was developed using MS-access and MS-visualbasic. This program consists of 3 modules; search condition, probabilistic characteristics of material property, evaluation of P-S-N curve. We perform fatigue test for probabilistic durability analysis and this results input the database program to estimate P-S-N.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한전기학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
• /
• pp.173-175
• /
• 2007

This paper introduces the characteristics of relationship between probabilistic reliability (LOLE; Loss of Load Expectation) and deterministic reliability (SRR; supply reserve rate) for 2008 year in Korea power system. Korea power system has been using the LOLE criterion to determine the adequacy of installed capacity (ICAP) requirement. The criterion is that load shall not exceed the avaliable capacity, on the average, more than five day in ten years. The probabilistic reliability evaluation and production cost simulation program which is called PPHFHT was used in order to obtain the relationship in this paper.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제51권9호
• /
• pp.425-432
• /
• 2002

This Paper illustrates a method for evaluating nodal probabilistic production cost using the CMELDC. A new method for constructing CMELDC(CoMposite Power System Equivalent Load Duration Curve) has been developed by authors. The CMELDC can be obtained by convolution integral processing between the probability distribution functions of the fictitious generators outage capacity and the load duration curves at each load point. In general, if complex operating conditions are involved and/or the number of severe events is relatively large, Monte Carlo methods are more efficient. Because of that reason, Monte Carlo Methods are applied for the construction of CMELDC in this study. And IEEE-RTS 24 buses model is used as our case study with satisfactory results.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한기계학회 2001년도 추계학술대회논문집A
• /
• pp.155-160
• /
• 2001

This paper describes a probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, it is necessary to perform the PFM analyses based on statistical consideration of flaw generation time. A depth and an aspect ratio of initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value, delayed hydride cracking (DHC) velocity, and flaw generation time are assumed to be probabilistic variables. In all the analyses, degradation of fracture toughness due to neutron irradiation is considered. Also, the failure criteria considered are plastic collapse, unstable fracture and crack penetration. For the crack growth by DHC, the failure probability was evaluated in due consideration of flaw generation time.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제24권8호
• /
• pp.2115-2122
• /
• 2000

The understanding of impact-induced delamination is important in safety and reliability of composite structure. In this study, a model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models, experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work factor used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior can be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. A variation of arrest toughness increases with specimen thickness.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산구조공학회 2006년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.473-480
• /
• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types of infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard curves. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, the there are a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity, therefore the probabilistic approach is more promising. Two types of probabilistic approach are introduced including (1) failure probability for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk of liquefaction of soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using risk analysis method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제44권8호
• /
• pp.961-970
• /
• 2012

Often, probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) approaches have been adopted to quantify the failure probabilities of Ni-base alloy components, especially due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC), in a primary piping system of pressurized water reactors. In this paper, the key features of an advanced PFM code, PINEP-PWSCC (Probabilistic INtegrity Evaluation for nuclear Piping-PWSCC) for such purpose, are described. In developing the code, we adopted most recent research results and advanced models in calculation modules such as PWSCC crack initiation and growth models, a performance-based probability of detection (POD) model for Ni-base alloy welds, and so on. To verify the code, the failure probabilities for various Alloy 182 welds locations were evaluated and compared with field experience and other PFM codes. Finally, the effects of pre-existing crack, weld repair, and POD models on failure probability were evaluated to demonstrate the applicability of PINEP-PWSCC.