• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.267-279
• /
• 2004

This paper presents an improved Monte Carlo simulation for the probabilistic determination of initial cable forces of cable-stayed bridges under dead loads using the response surfaces method. A response surface (i.e. a quadratic response surface without cross-terms) is used to approximate structural response. The use of the response surface eliminates the need to perform a deterministic analysis in each simulation loop. In addition, use of the response surface requires fewer simulation loops than conventional Monte Carlo simulation. Thereby, the computation time is saved significantly. The statistics (e.g. mean value, standard deviation) of the structural response are calculated through conventional Monte Carlo simulation method. By using Monte Carlo simulation, it is possible to use the existing deterministic finite element code without modifying it. Probabilistic analysis of a truss demonstrates the proposed method' efficiency and accuracy; probabilistic determination of initial cable forces of a cable-stayed bridge under dead loads verifies the method's applicability.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.4 no.5
• /
• pp.527-555
• /
• 2013

This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
• /
• v.19 no.spc1
• /
• pp.350-356
• /
• 2005

A method of dynamic analysis of mechanical systems considering probabilistic properties is proposed in this paper. Probabilistic properties that result from manufacturing tolerances can be represented by means and standard deviations (or variances). The probabilistic characteristics of dynamic responses of constrained multi-body systems are obtained by two ways : the proposed analytical approach and the Monte Carlo simulation. The formerpaper, necessitates sensitivity information to calculate the standard deviations. In this a direct differentiation method is employed to find the sensitivities of constrained multi-body systems. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, numerical examples are solved and the results obtained by using the proposed method are compared to those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.8 no.6
• /
• pp.1605-1614
• /
• 2013

This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for small signal stability analysis of power system with correlated wind sources. The approach considers not only the stochastic characteristics of wind speeds which are treated as random variables with Weibull distributions, while also the wind speed spatial correlations which are characterized by a correlation matrix. The approach based on the 2m+1 point estimate method and Cornish Fisher expansion, the orthogonal transformation technique is used to deal with the correlation of wind farms. A case study is carried out on IEEE New England system and the probabilistic indexes for eigenvalue analysis are computed from the statistical processing of the obtained results. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are confirmed by comparing with the results of Monte Carlo simulation. The numerical results indicate that the proposed method can actually capture the probabilistic characteristics of mode properties of the power systems with correlated wind sources and the consideration of spatial correlation has influence on the probability of system small signal stability.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.9 no.6
• /
• pp.1832-1842
• /
• 2014

A novel probabilistic small signal stability analysis (PSSSA) method considering load correlation is proposed in this paper. The superiority Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique combined with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is utilized to investigate the probabilistic small signal stability of power system in presence of load correlation. LHS helps to reduce the sampling size, meanwhile guarantees the accuracy and robustness of the solutions. The correlation coefficient matrix is adopted to represent the correlations between loads. Simulation results of the two-area, four-machine system prove that the proposed method is an efficient and robust sampling method. Simulation results of the 16-machine, 68-bus test system indicate that load correlation has a significant impact on the probabilistic analysis result of the critical oscillation mode under a certain degree of load uncertainty.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.221-230
• /
• 2017

One of the important phases of probabilistic performance-based methodology is establishing appropriate probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs). These demand models relate ground motion intensity measures (IMs) to demand measures (DMs). The objective of this paper is selection of the optimal IMs in probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) of the RC high-rise buildings. In selection process features such as: efficiency, practically, proficiency and sufficiency are considered. RC high-rise buildings with core wall structural system are selected as a case study building class with the three characteristic heights: 20-storey, 30-storey and 40-storey. In order to determine the most optimal IMs, 720 nonlinear time-history analyses are conducted for 60 ground motion records with a wide range of magnitudes and distances to source, and for various soil types, thus taking into account uncertainties during ground motion selection. The non-linear 3D models of the case study buildings are constructed. A detailed regression analysis and statistical processing of results are performed and appropriate PSDMs for the RC high-rise building are derived. Analyzing a large number of results it are adopted conclusions on the optimality of individual ground motion IMs for the RC high-rise building.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2022

Several aspects influence corrosive processes in reinforced concrete (RC) structures such as environmental conditions, structural geometry and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate description of the corrosive phenomena. Besides, the definition of limit states in the reliability assessment requires a proper mechanical model. In this context, this study proposes a straightforward methodology for the mechanical-probabilistic modelling of RC structures subjected to reinforcements' corrosion. An improved damage approach is proposed to define the limit states for the probabilistic modelling, considering three main degradation phenomena: concrete cracking, rebar yielding and rebar corrosion caused either by chloride or carbonation mechanisms. The stochastic analysis is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation method due to the computational efficiency of the Lumped Damage Model for Corrosion (LDMC). The proposed mechanical-probabilistic methodology is implemented in a computational framework and applied to the analysis of a simply supported RC beam and a 2D RC frame. Curves illustrate the probability of failure evolution over a service life of 50 years. Moreover, the proposed model allows drawing the probability of failure map and then identifying the critical failure path for progressive collapse analysis. Collapse path changes caused by the corrosion phenomena are observed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
• /
• 2003.11a
• /
• pp.406-411
• /
• 2003

One of the trends on information storage device is focused on the development of micro-optical devices with OFH (Optical Flying Head). Many different types of sliders for OFH and optical component systems have been introduced in the literature. However, the important issue on the mechanical system, which consists of suspension, swing arm and VCM (Voice Coil Motor) part has not been discussed up to date. In this research, we analyses the suspension, which is used for the small form factor MO drive. The analysis is in process two ways. One is probabilistic analysis, another is dynamic shock analysis. Probabilistic analysis is a technique you can use to assess the effect of uncertain input parameters and assumptions on your analysis model. Using a probabilistic analysis you can and out how much the results of a finite elements analysis are affected by uncertainties in the model. Dynamic shock analysis is used for the mobile applications. The mechanical robustness of the suspension simulating the shock responses of a disk-suspension is proposed in this paper.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.60 no.3
• /
• pp.63-70
• /
• 2018

In this study, a simple probabilistic approach using equivalent coefficient of consolidation ($c_e$) was proposed to consider the spatial variability of coefficient of vertical consolidation ($c_v$), and the effect of the probability distribution of coefficient of consolidation on degree of consolidation in heterogeneous soil was investigated. The statistical characteristics of consolidation coefficient were estimated from 1,226 field data, and four probability distributions (Normal, Log-normal, Gamma, and Weibull) were applied to consider the effect of probability distribution. The random fields of coefficient of consolidation were generated based on Karhunen-Loeve expansion. Then, the equivalent coefficient of consolidation was calculated from the random field and used as the input value of consolidation analysis. As a result, the probabilistic analysis can be performed effectively by separating random field and numerical analysis, and probabilistic analysis was performed using a Latin hypercube Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the statistical properties of $c_e$ were changed by the probability distribution and spatial variability of $c_v$, and the probability distribution of $c_v$ has considerable effects on the probabilistic results. There was a large difference of failure probability depend on the probability distribution when the autocorrelation distance was small (i.e., highly heterogeneous soil). Therefore, the selection of a suitable probability distribution of $c_v$ is very important for reliable probabilistic analysis of consolidation.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.76-86
• /
• 2007

Construction development work invents profit as those finalize object, and a make or break success of project depends on correct analysis and forecast business feasibility at project early. Business feasibility study would be decision-making under precarious situation because is connoting uncertainty that is future. estimate at present visual point essentially. Under uncertainty, a decision-making method is based on probability theory of statistics, but business feasibility study had applied with not feasibility study by probabilistic decision method but it by determinism derision method so far. Therefore in this study doing decision-making by a probability theory method for successful project at early business feasibility study, it present a probabilistic study method that use simulation that can supply a little more correct and reliable data to decision-maker As result, a probabilistic study method is more suitable than deterministic study method as technique for a financial feasibility study of construction development work. Making good use of this probabilistic study method at important business or careful decision-making, because efficient Judgment that is based accuracy and authoritativeness may become available.