• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Analysis

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Probabilistic analysis of seismically isolated elevated liquid storage tank using multi-phase friction bearing

  • Moeindarbari, Hesamaldin;Malekzadeh, Masoud;Taghikhany, Touraj
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.111-125
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    • 2014
  • Multiple level performance of seismically isolated elevated storage tank isolated with multi-phase friction pendulum bearing is investigated under totally 60 records developed for multiple level seismic hazard analysis (SLE, DBE and MCE). Mathematical formulations involving complex time history analysis have been proposed for analysis of typical storage tank by multi-phase friction pendulum bearing. Multi-phase friction pendulum bearing represent a new generation of adaptive friction isolation system to control super-structure demand in different hazard levels. This isolator incorporates four concave surfaces and three independent pendulum mechanisms. Pendulum stages can be set to address specific response criteria for moderate, severe and very severe events. The advantages of a Triple Pendulum Bearing for seismic isolation of elevated storage tanks are explored. To study seismic performance of isolated elevated storage tank with multi-phase friction pendulum, analytical simulations were performed with different friction coefficients, pendulum radii and slider displacement capacities.

A stochastic adaptive pushover procedure for seismic assessment of buildings

  • Jafari, Mohammad;Soltani, Masoud
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.477-492
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the adaptive nonlinear static analysis method has been widely used in the field of performance based earthquake engineering. However, the proposed methods are almost deterministic and cannot directly consider the seismic record uncertainties. In the current study an innovative Stochastic Adaptive Pushover Analysis, called "SAPA", based on equivalent hysteresis system responses is developed to consider the earthquake record to record uncertainties. The methodology offers a direct stochastic analysis which estimates the seismic demands of the structure in a probabilistic manner. In this procedure by using a stochastic linearization technique in each step, the equivalent hysteresis system is analyzed and the probabilistic characteristics of the result are obtained by which the lateral force pattern is extracted and the actual structure is pushed. To compare the results, three different types of analysis have been considered; conventional pushover methods, incremental dynamic analysis, IDA, and the SAPA method. The result shows an admirable accuracy in predicting the structure responses.

SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF KOREAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES: CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE

  • Baek, Won-Pil;Yang, Joon-Eon;Ha, Jae-Joo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.391-402
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces the development of safety assessment technology in Korea, focusing on the activities of the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute in the areas of system thermal hydraulics, severe accidents and probabilistic safety assessment. In the 1970s and 1980s, safety analysis codes and methodologies were introduced from the United States, France, Canada and other developed countries along with technology related to the construction and operation of nuclear power plants. The main focus was on understanding and utilizing computer codes that were sourced from abroad up to the early 1990s, when efforts to develop domestic safety analysis codes and methodologies became active. Remarkable achievements have been made over the last 15 years in the development and application of safety analysis technologies. In addition, significant experimental work has been performed to verify the safety characteristics of reactors and fuels as well as to support the development and validation of analysis methods.

1D Probabilistic Ground Response Analysis (지반 구조의 불확실성이 고려된 1차원 확률론적 지반응답해석)

  • Hwang, Hea Jin;Park, Hyung Choon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, the stochastic 1D site response analysis method using Monte Carlo simulation and considering thespatial variation of shear wave velocity profile isproposed. To consider thespatial variation of shear wave velocity profile for 1D site response analysis, the proposed method generates random shear wave velocity profiles representing the target site, and Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate theprobability distribution of the site response analysis results such as thepeak ground acceleration. Through the field application, The applicability of the proposed method is verified through field application.

Architectural model driven dependability analysis of computer based safety system in nuclear power plant

  • Wakankar, Amol;Kabra, Ashutosh;Bhattacharjee, A.K.;Karmakar, Gopinath
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.463-478
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    • 2019
  • The most important non-functional requirements for dependability of any Embedded Real-Time Safety Systems are safety, availability and reliability requirements. System architecture plays the primary role in achieving these requirements. Compliance with these non-functional requirements should be ensured early in the development cycle with appropriate considerations during architectural design. In this paper, we present an application of system architecture modeling for quantitative assessment of system dependability. We use probabilistic model checker (PRISM), for dependability analysis of the DTMC model derived from system architecture model. In general, the model checking techniques do not scale well for analyzing large systems, because of prohibitively large state space. It limits the use of model checking techniques in analyzing the systems of practical interest. We propose abstraction based compositional analysis methodology to circumvent this limitation. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been demonstrated using the case study involving the dependability analysis of safety system of a large Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR).

Probabilistic damage detection of structures with uncertainties under unknown excitations based on Parametric Kalman filter with unknown Input

  • Liu, Lijun;Su, Han;Lei, Ying
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.63 no.6
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    • pp.779-788
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    • 2017
  • System identification and damage detection for structural health monitoring have received considerable attention. Various time domain analysis methodologies based on measured vibration data of structures have been proposed. Among them, recursive least-squares estimation of structural parameters which is also known as parametric Kalman filter (PKF) approach has been studied. However, the conventional PKF requires that all the external excitations (inputs) be available. On the other hand, structural uncertainties are inevitable for civil infrastructures, it is necessary to develop approaches for probabilistic damage detection of structures. In this paper, a parametric Kalman filter with unknown inputs (PKF-UI) is proposed for the simultaneous identification of structural parameters and the unmeasured external inputs. Analytical recursive formulations of the proposed PKF-UI are derived based on the conventional PKF. Two scenarios of linear observation equations and nonlinear observation equations are discussed, respectively. Such a straightforward derivation of PKF-UI is not available in the literature. Then, the proposed PKF-UI is utilized for probabilistic damage detection of structures by considering the uncertainties of structural parameters. Structural damage index and the damage probability are derived from the statistical values of the identified structural parameters of intact and damaged structure. Some numerical examples are used to validate the proposed method.

Probabilistic evaluation of separation distance between two adjacent structures

  • Naeej, Mojtaba;Amiri, Javad Vaseghi;Jalali, Sayyed Ghasem
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.67 no.5
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    • pp.427-437
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    • 2018
  • Structural pounding is commonly observed phenomenon during major ground motion, which can cause both structural and architectural damages. To reduce the amount of damage from pounding, the best and effective way is to increase the separation distance. Generally, existing design procedures for determining the separation distance between adjacent buildings subjected to structural pounding are based on approximations of the buildings' peak relative displacement. These procedures are based on unknown safety levels. The aim of this research is to estimate probabilistic separation distance between adjacent structures by considering the variability in the system and uncertainties in the earthquakes characteristics through comprehensive numerical simulations. A large number of models were generated using a robust Monte-Carlo simulation. In total, 6.54 million time-history analyses were performed over the adopted models using an ensemble of 25 ground motions as seismic input within OpenSees software. The results show that a gap size of 50%, 70% and 100% of the considered design code for the structural periods in the range of 0.1-0.5 s, leads to have the probability of pounding about 41.5%, 18% and 5.8%, respectively. Finally, based on the results, two equations are developed for probabilistic determination of needed structural separation distance.

Informatics Network Representation Using Probabilistic Graphical Models of Network Genetics (유전자 네트워크에서 확률적 그래프 모델을 이용한 정보 네트워크 추론)

  • Ra Sang-Dong;Park Dong-Suk;Youn Young-Ji
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.1386-1392
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    • 2006
  • This study is a numerical representative modelling analysis for applying the process that unravels networks between cells in genetics to WWW of informatics. Using the probabilistic graphical model, the insight from the data describing biological networks is used for making a probabilistic function. Rather than a complex network of cells, we reconstruct a simple lower-stage model and show a genetic representation level from the genetic based network logic. We made probabilistic graphical models from genetic data and extends them to genetic representation data in the method of network modelling in informatics.

Reliability-based Shape Optimization Using Growth Strain Method (성장-변형률법을 이용한 신뢰성 기반 형상 최적화)

  • Oh, Young-Kyu;Park, Jae-Yong;Im, Min-Gyu;Park, Jae-Yong;Han, Seog-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.637-644
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents a reliability-based shape optimization (RBSO) using the growth-strain method. An actual design involves uncertain conditions such as material property, operational load, Poisson's ratio and dimensional variation. The purpose of the RBSO is to consider the variations of probabilistic constraint and performances caused by uncertainties. In this study, the growth-strain method was applied to shape optimization of reliability analysis. Even though many papers for reliability-based shape optimization in mathematical programming method and ESO (Evolutionary Structural Optimization) were published, the paper for the reliability-based shape optimization using the growth-strain method has not been applied yet. Growth-strain method is applied to performance measure approach (PMA), which has probabilistic constraints that are formulated in terms of the reliability index, is adopted to evaluate the probabilistic constraints in the change of average mises stress. Numerical examples are presented to compare the DO with the RBSO. The results of design example show that the RBSO model is more reliable than deterministic optimization. It was verified that the reliability-based shape optimization using growth-strain method are very effective for general structure. The purpose of this study is to improve structure's safety considering probabilistic variable.

Analysis of Users' Satisfaction Utility for Precipitation Probabilistic Forecast Using Collective Value Score (그룹 가치스코어 모형을 활용한 강수확률예보의 사용자 만족도 효용 분석)

  • Yoon, Seung Chul;Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.97-108
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    • 2015
  • This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.