• 제목/요약/키워드: Prior Probability

검색결과 287건 처리시간 0.026초

Vertebral compression fractures after spine irradiation using conventional fractionation in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

  • Rhee, Woo Joong;Kim, Kyung Hwan;Chang, Jee Suk;Kim, Hyun Ju;Choi, Seohee;Koom, Woong Sub
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: To evaluate the risk of vertebral compression fracture (VCF) after conventional radiotherapy (RT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) with spine metastasis and to identify risk factors for VCF in metastatic and non-metastatic irradiated spines. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 68 spinal segments in 16 patients who received conventional RT between 2009 and 2012. Fracture was defined as a newly developed VCF or progression of an existing fracture. The target volume included all metastatic spinal segments and one additional non-metastatic vertebra adjacent to the tumor-involved spines. Results: The median follow-up was 7.8 months. Among all 68 spinal segments, there were six fracture events (8.8%) including three new VCFs and three fracture progressions. Observed VCF rates in vertebral segments with prior irradiation or pre-existing compression fracture were 30.0% and 75.0% respectively, compared with 5.2% and 4.7% for segments without prior irradiation or pre-existing compression fracture, respectively (both p < 0.05). The 1-year fracture-free probability was 87.8% (95% CI, 78.2-97.4). On multivariate analysis, prior irradiation (HR, 7.30; 95% CI, 1.31-40.86) and pre-existing compression fracture (HR, 18.45; 95% CI, 3.42-99.52) were independent risk factors for VCF. Conclusion: The incidence of VCF following conventional RT to the spine is not particularly high, regardless of metastatic tumor involvement. Spines that received irradiation and/or have pre-existing compression fracture before RT have an increased risk of VCF and require close observation.

경사제 피복재의 유지관리를 위한 추계학적 Markov 확률모형의 개발 (Development of Stochastic Markov Process Model for Maintenance of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters)

  • 이철응
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2013
  • 경사제 피복재의 시간에 따른 파괴확률을 산정할 수 있는 추계학적 Markov 확률모형을 개발하였다. 하중발생에 대한 CP/RP 해석과 누적피해사건에 대한 DP 해석을 결합하여 수학적 모형을 수립하고 경사제 피복재에 적용하였다. 피복재의 피해수준에 대한 정의와 MCS 기법을 이용하여 이행확률을 산정하고 분석하였다. 산정된 이행확률들은 확률적으로나 물리적으로 만족해야하는 제약조건들을 잘 충족한다. 또한 경사제 피복재의 설계와 관련하여 중요한 변수로 생각되는 재현기간 및 안전율의 변화에 따른 시간 의존 파괴확률을 산정하여 그 거동 특성을 자세히 비교 분석하였다. 특히 시간 의존 파괴확률이 이전단계의 피해수준에 의해 어떻게 달라지는지를 정량적으로 해석할 수 있었다. 마지막으로 유지관리에서 가장 중요한 보수보강 시점을 결정할 수 있는 두 가지 접근방법을 제시하고 경제성 분석을 포함한 다양한 해석이 수행되었다.

위성영상 종류에 따른 분리도 특성 (Class Separability according to the different Type of Satellite Images)

  • 손경숙;최현;김시년;강인준
    • 한국측량학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국측량학회 2004년도 춘계학술발표회논문집
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    • pp.245-250
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    • 2004
  • The classification of the satellite images is basic part in Remote sensing. In classification of the satellite images, class separability feature is very effective accuracy of the images classified. For improving classification accuracy, It is necessary to study classification methode than analysis of class separability feature deciding classification probability. In this study, IKONOS, SPOT 5, Landsat TM, were resampled to sizes 1m grid. Above images were calculated the class separability prior to the step for classification of pixels. The results of the study were valued necessary process in geometric information building. This study help to improve accuracy of classification as feature of class separability in the class through optimizing previous classification steps.

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Interference Minimization Using Cognitive Spectrum Decision for LED-ID Network

  • Saha, Nirzhar;Le, Nam Tuan;Jang, Yeong Min
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제38B권2호
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2013
  • LED-ID (Light Emitting Diode-Identification) network is envisioned to be the next generation indoor wireless communication medium by which simultaneously high speed data transmission, identification, and illumination are possible. In spite of being extremely promising, it suffers from much impairment. Signals having different propagation paths can suffer from delays, and phase shifts which will eventually result interference. The probability of interference is also increased when communication links are established between a tag and several readers. Therefore it is necessary to reduce the interference in LED-ID network to ensure quality of service. It is possible to avoid interference by knowing the information about readers prior to assign the available spectrum. In this paper, we have proposed dynamic spectrum decision using cognitive radio concept. The simulation results justify that the proposed scheme is better than the conventional scheme.

Estimation of the exponentiated half-logistic distribution based on multiply Type-I hybrid censoring

  • Jeon, Young Eun;Kang, Suk-Bok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.47-64
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we derive some estimators of the scale parameter of the exponentiated half-logistic distribution based on the multiply Type-I hybrid censoring scheme. We assume that the shape parameter λ is known. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter σ. The scale parameter is estimated by approximating the given likelihood function using two different Taylor series expansions since the likelihood equation is not explicitly solved. We also obtain Bayes estimators using prior distribution. To obtain the Bayes estimators, we use the squared error loss function and general entropy loss function (shape parameter q = -0.5, 1.0). We also derive interval estimation such as the asymptotic confidence interval, the credible interval, and the highest posterior density interval. Finally, we compare the proposed estimators in the sense of the mean squared error through Monte Carlo simulation. The average length of 95% intervals and the corresponding coverage probability are also obtained.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model을 이용한 GCMs 의 최적 Multi-Model Ensemble 모형 구축 (Optimal Multi-Model Ensemble Model Development Using Hierarchical Bayesian Model Based)

  • 권현한;민영미
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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    • pp.1147-1151
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    • 2009
  • In this study, we address the problem of producing probability forecasts of summer seasonal rainfall, on the basis of Hindcast experiments from a ensemble of GCMs(cwb, gcps, gdaps, metri, msc_gem, msc_gm2, msc_gm3, msc_sef and ncep). An advanced Hierarchical Bayesian weighting scheme is developed and used to combine nine GCMs seasonal hindcast ensembles. Hindcast period is 23 years from 1981 to 2003. The simplest approach for combining GCM forecasts is to weight each model equally, and this approach is referred to as pooled ensemble. This study proposes a more complex approach which weights the models spatially and seasonally based on past model performance for rainfall. The Bayesian approach to multi-model combination of GCMs determines the relative weights of each GCM with climatology as the prior. The weights are chosen to maximize the likelihood score of the posterior probabilities. The individual GCM ensembles, simple poolings of three and six models, and the optimally combined multimodel ensemble are compared.

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FEASIBILITY MAPPING OF GROUND WATER YIELD CHARACTERISTICS USING WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE TECHNIQUE: A CASE STUDY

  • Heo, Seon-Hee;Lee, Ki-Won
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2005년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2005
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    • pp.430-433
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    • 2005
  • In this study, weight of evidence(WOE) technique based on the bayesian method was applied to estimate the groundwater yield characteristics in the Pocheon area in Kyungki-do. The ground water preservation depends on many hydrogeologic factors that include hydrologic data, landuse data, topographic data, geological map and other natural materials, even with man-made things. All these data can be digitally collected and managed by GIS database. In the applied technique of WOE, The prior probabilities were estimated as the factors that affect the yield on lineament, geology, drainage pattern or river system density, landuse and soil. We calculated the value of the Weight W+, W- of each factor and estimated the contrast value of it. Results by the ground water yield characteristic calculations were presented in the form of posterior probability map to the consideration of in-situ samples. It is concluded that this technique is regarded as one of the effective technique for the feasibility mapping related to detection of groundwater bearing zones and its spatial pattern.

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상대적(相對的) 위험(危險)과 추계적(推計的)-통계적(統計的) 우세법칙(優勢法則) (Relative Risk Aversion and Stochastic-Statistical Dominance)

  • 이대주
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 1989
  • This paper presents stochastic-statistical dominance rules which eliminate dominated alternatives thereby reduce the number of satisficing alternatives to a manageable size so that the decision maker can choose the best alternative among them when neither the utility function nor the probability distribution of outcomes is exactly known. Specifically, it is assumed that only the characteristics of the utility function and the value function are known. Also, it is assumed that prior probabilities of the mutually exclusive states of nature are not known, but their relative bounds are known. First, the notion of relative risk aversion is used to describe the decision maker's attitude toward risk, which is defined with the acknowledgement that the utility function of the decision maker is a composite function of a cardinal value function and a utility function with-respect to the value function. Then, stochastic-statistical dominance rules are developed to screen out dominated alternatives according to the decision maker's attitude toward risk represented in the form of the measure of relative risk aversion.

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Confidence Intervals for a Proportion in Finite Population Sampling

  • Lee, Seung-Chun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.501-509
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    • 2009
  • Recently the interval estimation of binomial proportions is revisited in various literatures. This is mainly due to the erratic behavior of the coverage probability of the well-known Wald confidence interval. Various alternatives have been proposed. Among them, the Agresti-Coull confidence interval, the Wilson confidence interval and the Bayes confidence interval resulting from the noninformative Jefferys prior were recommended by Brown et al. (2001). However, unlike the binomial distribution case, little is known about the properties of the confidence intervals in finite population sampling. In this note, the property of confidence intervals is investigated in anile population sampling.

Determination of Noise Threshold from Signal Histogram in the Wavelet Domain

  • Kim, Eunseo;Lee, Kamin;Yang, Sejung;Lee, Byung-Uk
    • 전자공학회논문지
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    • 제51권2호
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    • pp.156-160
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    • 2014
  • Thresholding in frequency domain is a simple and effective noise reduction technique. Determination of the threshold is critical to the image quality. The optimal threshold minimizing the Mean Square Error (MSE) is chosen adaptively in the wavelet domain; we utilize an equation of the MSE for the soft-thresholded signal and the histogram of wavelet coefficients of the original image and noisy image. The histogram of the original signal is estimated through the deconvolution assuming that the probability density functions (pdfs) of the original signal and the noise are statistically independent. The proposed method is quite general in that it does not assume any prior for the source pdf.