• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.309-314
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• 2010

In this work, the helicopter price estimation formula from Harris & Scully is revised and updated for more accurate prediction of the current prices of helicopters which can be applied in the preliminary design stage. As many as 74 helicopter price and sizing data after the year 1997 are newly included to the out-dated coefficients in the cost estimation formula. In addition, the updated price estimation formula is added to Tishchenko's preliminary sizing method for price consideration in the preliminary design stage. Sikorsky's S-76C+ helicopter is used along with other various helicopters for comparison and validation of the sizing code as well as the new updated price estimation formula.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.13D no.5 s.108
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• pp.717-724
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• 2006

The cost estimation of software is getting more important as the portion of software is increasing in acquiring weapon systems. However, the cost estimation of embedded software in a weapon system follows the cost estimation method for general purpose softwares and uses the PRICE S model as a tool. However, any validation result of the estimated cost through an evaluated software size is not well known. Hence, we propose an approach to estimate the cost through evaluating the embedded software site in weapon systems. In order to achieve our research goal, we evaluate the software size of using the line of codes and function points which are produced by the PRICE S model. Finally, we compare the estimated cost data the actual cost data provided by the production company. As a result, we propose an approach to estimate the size and the cost of embedded software in weapon systems which are not easy to estimate objectively. We also expect that the Proposed approach is used for the cost validation and negotiation in the acquisition of weapon systems in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.55-63
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• 2015

The need for estimating the real transaction price of land is increasing in order to build foundation for transparent land transaction and fair taxation. This study looked into the applicability of cokriging combining real transaction price of land, altitude and gradient for effective price estimation on the points where the real transaction does not take place in the course of using the real transaction price of land. The real transaction price of land have been estimated using the real transaction materials of Yeongcheon, Gyeongsangbuk-do from January 2012 to June 2014, and the results have been compared with the estimation results of ordinary kriging. As a result of analyzing the mean error and root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimated price and 2,575 verification points, it was found that compared to ordinary kriging, cokriging results were more effective in terms of the real transaction price estimation and actualization. The reason that cokriging is more effective in the real transaction price estimation is because it takes account of altitude and gradient which are the forces influencing the land value.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.157-167
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• 2006

Estimating the effects of price increase on a company's sales is important task faced by managers. If consumer has prior information on price increase or expects it, there would be stockpiling and subsequent drops in sales. In addition, consumer can suppress demand in the short run. These factors make the sales dynamic and unstable. In this paper we develop a time series model to evaluate the sales patterns with stockpiling and short-term suppression of demand and also propose a forecasting procedure. For estimation, we use panel data and extend the model to Bayesian hierarchical structure. By borrowing strength across cross-sectional units, this estimation scheme gives more robust and reasonable result than one from the individual estimation. Furthermore, the proposed scheme yields improved predictive power in the forecasting of hold-out sample periods.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.133-143
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• 2021

In government procurement programs, cost estimation and analysis support funding decisions and are the basis for other major decisions, too. Such estimating and analyzing the cost of the weapon systems are crucial in execution of the defense budget. However, existing cost estimations and analyses have focused on domestic R&D projects, thus those are not valid in application to foreign weapon acquisitions. This study aims at foreign weapon systems that are acquired from Direct Commercial Sales. Because the data for price estimation of a foreign weapon is usually not available, we suggest a price estimation model based on performance factors of the weapon. In this study, the proper price of the weapon system is estimated using the parametric cost estimating model. Using the data of helicopter-launched anti-tank guided missiles worldwide, we analyze the effect of each performance factor on the weapon system price by regression analysis, and use step-wise and ridge regression analysis to remove multi-collinearity. This study hopefully contributes to more reasonable decision making on proper price of weapons.

• Smart Media Journal
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.54-61
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• 2023

Pricing, as one of the most important aspects of a business, should be taken seriously. Whatever affects a company's pricing system tends to affect its profits and losses as well. Currently, many manufacturing companies fix product prices manually by members of an organization's management team. However, due to the imperfect nature of humans, an extremely low or high price may be fixed, which is detrimental to the company in either case. This paper proposes the development of a fuzzy-based price expert system (Expert Fuzzy Price (EFP)) for manufacturing companies. This system will be able to recommend appropriate prices for products in manufacturing companies based on four major pricing strategic goals, namely: Product Demand, Price Skimming, Competition Price, and Target population.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.29-38
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• 2010

In Korea weapon system acquisition processes, it's required a cost estimation report obtained from a commercial cost model. The PRICE model is generally used as a cost estimation model in Korea. However, the model uses American historical R&D data and it's output cost component is different from our cost component of defense accounting system. Also, we found that estimating results show about 10% of difference when we comparing with actual costs in 44 finished weapon acquisition projects. There are some limitations in calibration to increase an accuracy of the PRICE model because it's difficult obtain good real input data, detailed cost and technical data in low level WBS. So, only 8% of the defense R&D projects are calibrated and validation of calibration results is more difficult. Therefore, we studied the standard calibration process and performed the calibration about the MCPLXS/E parameters of the PRICE model based on actual cost data. In order to obtain a good calculation result, we collected the actual material costs from the defense industry companies. Our results can be used for an reference in similar weapon system R&D and production cost estimation cases.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.44-61
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• 1999

Cost estimation has posed a significant challenge to estimators, planners, and managers in both government and military. Considerable historical evidence shows that accurate cost estimation has been difficult to achieve across a wide range of projects, including weapon systems. This paper introduces new cost estimating concept, CAIV(Cost As an Independent Variable) and a cost estimating case study using PRICE model, computer aided parametric estimating models(CAPE) for K1 tank cost estimate. CAIV concept is to set realistic but aggressive cost objectives easily in each acquisition program and to achieve cost, schedule, and performance objectives considering various managing risks with a project manager and industry teams. The Price model is one of computer aided cost estimating models and widely used in U.S. defense system analysis as a tool for CAIV. We analyze theories, inputs, outputs of the PRICE model and present a case study for K1 tank to estimate costs in requirement and concept phase, program and budgeting phase, and life cycle phase. Finally we obtain results that the Price model can be used in various phases of PPBEES depending upon available data and time.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.12D no.5 s.101
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• pp.737-744
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• 2005

As the portion of software cost in construction of the system related to the national defence is getting higher, the required accuracy of cost estimation on defense software in development is also getting higher. The PRICE S is used to estimate the software cost at the first stage in the development of software promptly. However, the PRICE S is appropriate for the American environment not for the Korean circumstances. Thus, we will present a method to compensate the PRICE S with comparing with the model of Korea Software Industry Association. Moreover, we also present another method to estimate software cost based on function point with backfiring approach, which will be used for the software projects planned. Finally, we expect that our works will provide a solution for applying the function point in the future and will increase the accuracy of cost estimation in software development.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.97-110
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• 1998

This paper tries to estimate Korea's import demand function for fisheries using cointegration analysis. The estimation function consists of one dependent variable-import quantity of fisheries(FTIW) and two independent variables-relative price(RP) between importable and domestic products and real income(GDP). As it has been empirically found out that almost all of time series of macro-variables such as GDP, price index are nonstationary, existing studies which ignore this fact need to be reexamined. Conventional econometric method can not analyze nonstationary time series in level. To perform the analysis, time series should be differenciated until stationarity is guaranteed. Unfortunately, the difference method removes the long run element of data, and so leads to difficulties of interpretation. But according to new developed econometric theory, cointegration approach could solve these problems. Therefore this paper proceeds the estimation on the basis of cointegration analysis, because the quartly variables from 1988 to 1997 used in the model is found out to be nonstationary. The estimation results show that all of the variables are statistically significant. Therefore Korea's import demand for fisheries has been strongly affected by the variation of real income and the relative price.