A Study on Calibration of PRICE Model Using Historical Cost Data

실적자료를 활용한 PRICE 모델의 보정방안 연구

  • 정태균 (육군) ;
  • 이용복 (국방대학교 관리대학원 운영분석학과) ;
  • 강성진 (국방대학교 관리대학원 운영분석학과)
  • Received : 2010.02.10
  • Accepted : 2010.04.13
  • Published : 2010.04.30

Abstract

In Korea weapon system acquisition processes, it's required a cost estimation report obtained from a commercial cost model. The PRICE model is generally used as a cost estimation model in Korea. However, the model uses American historical R&D data and it's output cost component is different from our cost component of defense accounting system. Also, we found that estimating results show about 10% of difference when we comparing with actual costs in 44 finished weapon acquisition projects. There are some limitations in calibration to increase an accuracy of the PRICE model because it's difficult obtain good real input data, detailed cost and technical data in low level WBS. So, only 8% of the defense R&D projects are calibrated and validation of calibration results is more difficult. Therefore, we studied the standard calibration process and performed the calibration about the MCPLXS/E parameters of the PRICE model based on actual cost data. In order to obtain a good calculation result, we collected the actual material costs from the defense industry companies. Our results can be used for an reference in similar weapon system R&D and production cost estimation cases.

Keywords

References

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