• Title/Summary/Keyword: Price index

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Determinants of Inflation Expectations of South Korean Consumers (한국 소비자의 기대 인플레이션 결정요인)

  • Young-Bin Ahn
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.413-429
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of consumers' inflation expectations using consumers' inflation perceptions and the sub-components of consumer price index (CPI) basket in South Korea based on a consumer survey conducted by the Bank of Korea (BOK). Design/methodology/approach - Using Carroll's (2003) epidemiological model, we analyzed data from January 2013 to January 2023, resulting in a data set of 121 observations for both inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. This study focuses only on aggregate inflation expectations and perceptions because of data availability from the BOK. Findings - Professionals' forecasts play a major role in forming consumers' inflation expectations, whereas the actual headline CPI and consumers' inflation perceptions do not. These results remain robust when including the sub-components of the CPI basket in the analysis. Research implications or Originality - It would be the most efficient way to suppress professionals' expected inflation in fighting against a substantial spike in consumers' inflation expectations. To guide consumers' inflation expectations based on BOK's inflation targeting, the bank needs to consider professionals' forecasts in devising monetary policies.

Predicting Stock Price Index using the Wavelet Transform and Temporal Fusion Transformer Model (웨이블릿 변환과 Temporal Fusion Transformer 모델을 활용한 주가지수 예측)

  • Useong Choe;Hyoengoh Son;Byeongseok Ryu;YoungGyun Kim
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2024.10a
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    • pp.401-404
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    • 2024
  • 정보기술의 발전으로 여러 분야에 머신러닝 기법이 적용되고 있는 중, 금융·경제 분야는 낮은 신호 대 잡음 비, 머신러닝의 낮은 설명 가능성으로 인하여 머신러닝 활용의 확산이 더디게 일어나고 있다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하고자 웨이블릿 변환을 이용하여 금융데이터의 노이즈를 제거하고 설명 가능성을 높인 딥러닝 모델인 Temporal Fusion Transformer를 활용하여 금융·경제 분야 내 머신러닝 적용의 한계를 극복하는데 기여하고자 한다.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Study on Lead-Lag Relationship between Individual Spot and Futures of Communication Service Industries: Focused on KT and SK Telecom (통신서비스 업종 개별주식 현물과 선물 간 선도-지연 효과: 한국통신과 SK텔레콤을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Joo Il
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2015
  • We examine the information transmission between the KT Spot and the KT Futures Index, the SK Telecom Spot and the SK Telecom Futures Index, based on the returns data offered by the Korea Exchange. The data includes daily return data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2014. Utilizing a dynamic analytical tool-the VAR model, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition have been implemented. The results of the analysis are as follows. Firstly, results of Granger Causality test suggests the existence of mutual causality the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index precede and have explanatory power the KT Spot and the SK Telecom Spot However the results also identified a greater causality and explanatory power of the KT Spot and the SK Telecom Spot over the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. Secondly, the results of impulse response function suggest that the KT Futures Index show immediate response to the KT Spot and are influenced by till time 4. From time 2, the impact gradually disappears. Also the SKT Futures Index show immediate response to the SKT Spot and are influenced by till time 4. From time 2, the impact gradually disappears. Lastly, the variance decomposition analysis shows that the changes of return of the KT Spot and SKT Spot are dependent on those of the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. This implies that returns on the KT Spot and SKT Spot have a significant influence over returns on the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. It contributes to the understanding of market price formation function through analysis of detached the KT Spot and the KT Futures Index, the SK Telecom Spot and the SK Telecom Futures Index.

A Multiple Planting in a Hole for Producing an Aromatic Tobacco Variety, Sohyang(Nicotiana tabacum L.) (향끽미품종담배의 식혈간 거리와 식혈당 주수가 수량 및 품질에 미치는 영향)

  • 정기택;변주섭
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Tobacco Science
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.58-65
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    • 1981
  • This study was carried out to investigate the influence of distance of planting holes (51, 45, and 40 cm) and number of plants per a hole(4, 5, 6 plants) on agronomic characteristics, yield, and quality of an aromatic tobacco, Sohyang. The results are as follows: 1. Relative light intensity increased by widening the distance of holes. 2. Leaf area per a plant or per a leaf, and leaf length and width increased by widening the distance of holes and decreased by increasing the number of plants per a hole. But L. A. 1. increased by increasing the number of plants per a hole. Leaf shape index (Leaf length/Leaf width) showed little differences among treatments. 3. Dry weight of leaf, root, and stem per a plant decreased by increasing the number of plants per a hole. 4. Total nitrogen decreased by increasing number of plants per a hole and in the case of narrow distance of holes, but nicotine, reducing sugar, ether-extract and ash showed little differences. 5. Yield per 10a decreased by widening the distance of holes. 6. Quality(price per kg) was improved by increasing the number of plants per a hole at the Plot of 51m distance of holes. But there was no variation at the Plot of 45cm. And quality was decreased at the plot of 40cm distance of holes by increasing the number of Plants per a hole. 7. Price per 10a was highest in the plot of which plant spacing was $90\times$40cm and the number of plants per a hole was 4 (11112 plant/10a).

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A Study on Environment and Perception of CAD by Undergraduate Students in the Dept. of Architecture - Case study on Undergraduate Students - (대학(大學) 건축학과(建築學科) 재학생(在學生)의 CAD 환경(環境) 및 인식(認識)에 관한 연구(硏究) - 사례대학의 재학생을 대상으로 -)

  • Yoo, Chang-Geun;Park, Sung-Ha
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.24-30
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    • 2001
  • This study conducts a questionnaire with undergraduate students in the Dept. of Architecture who will lead the architectural field in future, examines environment and perception of CAD in their home and universities and aims at supplying the data required for setting CAD educational index and building its use environment, and it could obtain the following results. Individual CAD environment of undergraduate students in the Dept. of Architecture reach a considerable level in hardware part, but they don't have the same level in software part as the hardware and use illegal copy programs. It is shown that they spend their time in using CAD for five to eight hours a week and its main purposes are to perform a project related to architectural design or make report requiring drawing. Major places using CAD are CAD room in university or public PC room equipped with CAD compared to their own houses and most of them have a negative recognition of the convenience of its use. Their satisfaction with CAD use is considerably high and when they submitted their assignments of architectural design project by means of CAD, they had a positive evaluation from their professors and they have such hopes that 'Korean Support Strengthening', 'lowering price through version supply for students' and 'diversification of design symbol' in CAD S/W, and especially, most of respondents have an intention to purchase the original goods when version only for students will be marketed in future. Accordingly, for a qualitative improvement of CAD environment for undergraduate students in the Dept. of Architecture, universities must be equipped with the various types of CAD S/W and Applications and students' opportunity to access them should be increased. In addition, a method which can enhance using convenience of CAD room and PC room is required and CAD related S/W developers must market the version for students which consider the reality of undergraduates in Korea properly with an appropriate price level in order to settle a sound S/W culture.

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A Study on the Purchasing Practice and Size Fitness of Ready-made Clothes for Male College Students according to Body Types (한국 남자대학생의 체형에 따른 기성복 구매실태 및 치수적합도 조사)

  • Lim, Jiyoung
    • The Korean Fashion and Textile Research Journal
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.942-949
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    • 2013
  • This study was performed to investigate purchasing practice and size satisfaction in order to offer basic data to establish marketing strategy and produce ready-made clothes for the male college students according to their body type. For data analysis, crosstabs, factor analysis and one-way ANOVA were used. Results were as follows; first, this study considered the somatotype distribution of male college students. The results showed that inverted triangle -shaped torso was the ideal somatotype in all the classified four actual somatotypes. Second, people in standard body types significantly considered price and appearance such as design, color, pattern and price while people in triangle-shaped torso placed the most importance in the practicality and wearability. People with inverted triangle-shaped torso was found to significantly consider the perceptual quality such as brand, a/s and fashion. Third, this study considered the wearing satisfaction of ready-to-wear. The respondents placed more emphasis on the practicality and wearability as their actual somatotypes were not ideal for them. Fourth, the examination of the difference in size fitness depending on clothing by somatotype when wearing ready-to-wear showed that breast on the top was small when wearing it in the remaining somatotypes except for standard somatotype. The upper body showed better size fitness in triangle-shaped torso. There is a difference in fitness according to somatotypes classified by the form factors even though they have the same body mass index.

Estimation and Comparison of Regional Environmental Kuznets Curves for CO2 emissions in Korea (국내 지역별 이산화탄소 배출에 대한 환경 쿠즈네츠 곡선 추정 및 비교)

  • Lee, Gwang Hoon
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.53-76
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    • 2010
  • This paper attempts to estimate and compare environmental Kuznets curves (EKC) for$CO_2$ emissions of five regions constituting South Korea. For this, panel data of $CO_2$ emission for these regions are constucted for the period 1990 - 2007. Close inter-dependency among these five regions is considered by using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model. In addition to real per-capita income, price index of energy sources and population dens ity are included as control variables. Results of estimates show the robust existence of EKC's in all these regions. EKC turning points of five regions range between 13.7 and 21.6 million Korean Won, showing a large variation. This difference among regions should be conisidered for the effective implementation of policies targeting the reduction of $CO_2$ emmission. In addition, the increase of energy price is found help reduce the $CO_2$ emmision while the rise of population density seems to lead to the increase of $CO_2$ emission.

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Empirical Analysis for Evaluation Index of Quality Competitiveness Excellent Companies (품질경쟁력 우수기업의 평가지표에 대한 실증적 분석)

  • Park, Dong Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2016
  • Quality has been a key issue to manufacturers. Many distinguished scholars have defined quality with profound insight. Korean firms struggle to make better products to fulfil requirements and satisfy customers. Korean industries have implemented quality management from Japan in early 70s. Statistical quality control, QCC (Quality Control Circle), and total quality management have also been introduced in succession. Chief executive officers, managers, and field employees have been aware of the importance of quality since then. This quality movement force workers to improve quality. They have to maintain the quality of products and compete with foreign products. Korean industries were able to compete with foreign industries in price. However, Korean firms now have to compete in quality as well as price. ISO (International Organization for Standardization) was established and industries around world have started to implement standardized systems depending on their need. ISO 9000 has continuously been revised and firms around world started to register a ISO 9000 certificate. Today's quality competitiveness gets more deeply involved. KSA (Korean Standard Association) have launched QCAS (Quality Competitiveness Assessment System) since 1997. Up until now recent status of QCAS have been reported but the characteristics of QCAS results have not been analyzed. In this article we examine the QCAS results of 41 firms in 2014. QCAS consisted of 13 subsections : strategy and management system, organization culture and development of human resource, information management, quality system, customer satisfaction, management achievement, TPM, logistics, product development and technology, PL, QCC, SQC/SPC, and reliability. We performed one way ANOVA to discover the difference among the levels of firm size, business type, and quality hall of fame using the total scores of 13 subsections resulted from QCAS. We also analyzed the scores of 13 individual subsections of QCAS to see if there is any differences based on firm size and business type. We interpret the results and implication of analysis and finally draw a conclusion.

Evaluation of Tobacco Control Policy in Korea: Development and Application of the Korean Tobacco Index for Policy Monitoring and Evaluation (한국 담배규제 정책의 평가: 담배규제정책 전문가 의견 조사를 토대로)

  • Hwang, Ji-Eun;Oh, Yu-Mi
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.342-348
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    • 2014
  • Background: Due to lack of regular and systematic evaluation tool, Korea's tobacco control policy has not been examined its overall process of implementation including efficiency and adequacy of the policies. This study developed policy monitoring and evaluation model to assess policy implementation and effectiveness of tobacco control in Korea. Methods: Based on World Health Organization operational manual for assessment, MPOWER (monitor tobacco use and prevention policies, protect from tobacco smoke, offer help to quit tobacco use, warn about the dangers of tobacco, enforce bans on tobacco advertising promotion and sponsorship, and raise taxes on tobacco) related policies were reviewed by rating policy efforts, programme management, people (human resources and their development), provision of organization, provision of fund and partnerships (range, 0 to 5). Results: As a result of the experts' assessment, overall Korean tobacco control policies scored 2.61 points, which is poor. In relation to each 'MPOWER' policies, 'W' scored the highest points (2.93), followed by 'O' (2.91), 'M' (2.87), 'P' (2.86), and 'E' (2.23). 'R' scored the lowest points of 1.87, meaning government efforts in tobacco price policy is insufficient. Conclusion: This study concludes that Korean tobacco control policy should strengthen tax and price measures, while programme infrastructure, people, and funds for policy enforcement should be secured. Furthermore, rather than focusing on one specific measure, a balanced approach reflecting various aspects of tobacco controls should be considered in order to decrease smoking rates and prevent smoking initiation.