• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive

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A Longitudinal Validation Study of the Korean Version of PCL-5(Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5) (PCL-5(DSM-5 기준 외상 후 스트레스 장애 체크리스트) 한국판 종단 타당화 연구)

  • Lee, DongHun;Lee, DeokHee;Kim, SungHyun;Jung, DaSong
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.187-217
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    • 2022
  • The aim of this study is to examine the psychometric properties of the Korean version of the Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5(PCL-5). For this purpose, online surveys were conducted for two times with a one year interval using the data from 1,077 Korean adults at time 1, and 563 Korean adults at time 2. First, from the result of the confirmatory factor analysis, comparing the model fit of the 1, 4, 6, and 7-factor model, the 4, 6, and 7-factor model showed a acceptable fit, and the best fit was seen in the order of the 7, 6, 4-factor model. Second, the internal consistency, omega coefficient, construct validity, average variance extracted, and test-retest reliability results were all satisfactory.. Third, a correlation analysis with the K-PC-PTSD-5 and the sub-factors of BSI-18 was conducted to check the validity of the Korean Version of PCL-5. As a result, a positive correlation was seen with both K-PC-PTSD-5 and BSI-18. Fourth, a hierarchical multiple regression was performed to examine whether the Korean Version of PCL-5 predicts future PTSD, depression, anxiety, and somatization. As a result, the Korean Version of PCL-5 measured at time 1 significantly predicted PTSD, depression, anxiety, and somatization symptoms at time 2. Fifth, by analyzing the ROC curve, the discriminant power of PCL-5 for screening PTSD symptom groups was confirmed, and the best cut-off score was suggested. As a result of the longitudinal validation of Korean version of PCL-5, it was found that this scale is a reliable and valid measure for Korean adults. By looking into the predictive validity of the scale, it was found that the Korean version of PCL-5 can predict not only PTSD symptoms but also PTSD-related symptoms such as depression, anxiety, and somatization. Also, this study differs from previous validation studies measuring PTSD symptoms in that it suggested a cut-off score to help differentiate PTSD symptom groups.

Factors Affecting Physicians who will be Vaccinated Every Year after Receiving the COVID-19 Vaccine in Healthcare Workers (의료종사자의 COVID-19 예방 백신 접종받은 후 향후 매년 예방접종 의향에 미치는 요인)

  • Hyeun-Woo Choi;Sung-Hwa Park;Eun-Kyung Cho;Chang-hyun Han;Jong-Min Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.257-265
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study was to vaccinate every year according to the general characteristics of COVID-19, whether to vaccinate every year according to the vaccination experience, whether to vaccinate every year according to knowledge/attitude about vaccination, and negative responses to the vaccinate every year In order to understand the factors affecting the vaccination physician every year by identifying the factors of Statistical analysis is based on general characteristics, variables based on vaccination experience, and knowledge/attitudes related to vaccination. The doctor calculates the frequency and percentage, A square test (-test) was performed, and if the chi-square test was significant but the expected frequency was less than 5 for 25% or more, a ratio difference test was performed with Fisher's exact test. Through multiple logistic regression analysis using variables that were significant in simple analysis, a predictive model for future vaccination and the effect size of each independent variable were estimated. As statistical analysis software, SAS 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) was used, and because the sample size was not large, the significance level was set at 10%, and when the p-value was less than 0.10, it was interpreted as statistically significant. In the simple logistic regression analysis, the reason why they answered that they would not be vaccinated every year was that they answered 'to prevent infection of family and hospital guests' rather than 'to prevent my infection' as the reason for the vaccination. It was 11.0 times higher and 3.67 times higher in the case of 'for the formation of collective immunity of the local community and the country'. The adverse reactions experienced after the 1st and 2nd vaccination were 8.42 times higher in those who did not experience pain at the injection site than those who did not, 4.00 times higher in those who experienced swelling or redness, and 5.69 times higher in those who experienced joint pain. There was a 5.57 times higher rate of absenteeism annually than those who did not. In addition, the more anxious they felt about vaccination, the more likely they were to not get the vaccine every year by 2.94 times.

Development and Testing of a RIVPACS-type Model to Assess the Ecosystem Health in Korean Streams: A Preliminary Study (저서성 대형무척추동물을 이용한 RIVPACS 유형의 하천생태계 건강성 평가법 국내 하천 적용성)

  • Da-Yeong Lee;Dae-Seong Lee;Joong-Hyuk Min;Young-Seuk Park
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2023
  • In stream ecosystem assessment, RIVPACS, which makes a simple but clear evaluation based on macroinvertebrate community, is widely used. In this study, a preliminary study was conducted to develop a RIVPACS-type model suitable for Korean streams nationwide. Reference streams were classified into two types(upstream and downstream), and a prediction model for macroinvertebrates was developed based on each family. A model for upstream was divided into 7 (train): 3 (test), and that for downstream was made using a leave-one-out method. Variables for the models were selected by non-metric multidimensional scaling, and seven variables were chosen, including elevation, slope, annual average temperature, stream width, forest ratio in land use, riffle ratio in hydrological characteristics, and boulder ratio in substrate composition. Stream order classified 3,224 sites as upstream and downstream, and community compositions of sites were predicted. The prediction was conducted for 30 macroinvertebrate families. Expected (E) and observed fauna (O) were compared using an ASPT biotic index, which is computed by dividing the BMWPK score into the number of families in a community. EQR values (i.e. O/E) for ASPT were used to assess stream condition. Lastly, we compared EQR to BMI, an index that is commonly used in the assessment. In the results, the average observed ASPT was 4.82 (±2.04 SD) and the expected one was 6.30 (±0.79 SD), and the expected ASPT was higher than the observed one. In the comparison between EQR and BMI index, EQR generally showed a higher value than the BMI index.

A study on solar radiation prediction using medium-range weather forecasts (중기예보를 이용한 태양광 일사량 예측 연구)

  • Sujin Park;Hyojeoung Kim;Sahm Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2023
  • Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

A stratified random sampling design for paddy fields: Optimized stratification and sample allocation for effective spatial modeling and mapping of the impact of climate changes on agricultural system in Korea (농지 공간격자 자료의 층화랜덤샘플링: 농업시스템 기후변화 영향 공간모델링을 위한 국내 농지 최적 층화 및 샘플 수 최적화 연구)

  • Minyoung Lee;Yongeun Kim;Jinsol Hong;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.526-535
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    • 2021
  • Spatial sampling design plays an important role in GIS-based modeling studies because it increases modeling efficiency while reducing the cost of sampling. In the field of agricultural systems, research demand for high-resolution spatial databased modeling to predict and evaluate climate change impacts is growing rapidly. Accordingly, the need and importance of spatial sampling design are increasing. The purpose of this study was to design spatial sampling of paddy fields (11,386 grids with 1 km spatial resolution) in Korea for use in agricultural spatial modeling. A stratified random sampling design was developed and applied in 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s under two RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5. Twenty-five weather and four soil characteristics were used as stratification variables. Stratification and sample allocation were optimized to ensure minimum sample size under given precision constraints for 16 target variables such as crop yield, greenhouse gas emission, and pest distribution. Precision and accuracy of the sampling were evaluated through sampling simulations based on coefficient of variation (CV) and relative bias, respectively. As a result, the paddy field could be optimized in the range of 5 to 21 strata and 46 to 69 samples. Evaluation results showed that target variables were within precision constraints (CV<0.05 except for crop yield) with low bias values (below 3%). These results can contribute to reducing sampling cost and computation time while having high predictive power. It is expected to be widely used as a representative sample grid in various agriculture spatial modeling studies.

Success Factor in the K-Pop Music Industry: focusing on the mediated effect of Internet Memes (대중음악 흥행 요인에 대한 연구: 인터넷 밈(Internet Meme)의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • YuJeong Sim;Minsoo Shin
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.48-62
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    • 2023
  • As seen in the recent K-pop craze, the size and influence of the Korean music industry is growing even bigger. At least 6,000 songs are released a year in the Korean music market, but not many can be said to have been successful. Many studies and attempts are being made to identify the factors that make the hit music. Commercial factors such as media exposure and promotion as well as the quality of music play an important role in the commercial success of music. Recently, there have been many marketing campaigns using Internet memes in the pop music industry, and Internet memes are activities or trends that spread in various forms, such as images and videos, as cultural units that spread among people. Depending on the Internet environment and the characteristics of digital communication, contents are expanded and reproduced in the form of various memes, which causes a greater response to consumers. Previously, the phenomenon of Internet memes has occurred naturally, but artists who are aware of the marketing effects have recently used it as an element of marketing. In this paper, the mediated effect of Internet memes in relation to the success factors of popular music was analyzed, and a prediction model reflecting them was proposed. As a result of the analysis, the factors with the mediated effect of 'cover effect' and 'challenge effect' were the same. Among the internal success factors, there were mediated effects in "Singer Recognition," the genres of "POP, Dance, Ballad, Trot and Electronica," and among the external success factors, mediated effects in "Planning Company Capacity," "The Number of Music Broadcasting Programs," and "The Number of News Articles." Predictive models reflecting cover effects and challenge effects showed F1-score at 0.6889 and 0.7692, respectively. This study is meaningful in that it has collected and analyzed actual chart data and presented commercial directions that can be used in practice, and found that there are many success factors of popular music and the mediating effects of Internet memes.

Moderating effects of perceived behavioral control on the relationships among exhibition sales promotions and purchase intention (전시회 판매촉진 활동이 지각된 행동통제의 조절효과와 구매의도에 미치는 영향연구)

  • Kim, Hyun Su;Kim, Mi So;Kim, Chul Won
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.31
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of study is to examine the effectiveness of exhibition sales promotions and purchase intention for reasonable visitors. Perceived behavior control determining moderating effects on the relationship among their sales promotions and purchase intention is used as a predictive variable of unexpected impulsive purchases or negative purchase intention contrary to business intention. A total of 315 visitors who experienced the sales promotions of G-Star 2016 in Busan respond to the questionnaire and 259 forms are used to analyze the data. The main results of this study were as follows. First, except to value-added sales promotion, all of sales promotions positively impact on visitors' purchase intention. Second, as a result of analyzing the moderating effects of the perceived behavioral control consisting of control belief and perceived power on the relationships among the sales promotions and purchase intention, the control belief moderated the sales promotions such as price-off and education on purchase intention. In addition, the perceived power moderated the sales promotions such as escape and entertainment on purchase intention. In a nutshell, the degree of perceived behavior control makes critically impact on the effectiveness of exhibition sales promotions. Based on this results, it yields new insights into the way of developing various sales promotion strategies according to different features of visitors.

1-month Prediction on Rice Harvest Date in South Korea Based on Dynamically Downscaled Temperature (역학적 규모축소 기온을 이용한 남한지역 벼 수확일 1개월 예측)

  • Jina Hur;Eun-Soon Im;Subin Ha;Yong-Seok Kim;Eung-Sup Kim;Joonlee Lee;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Min-Gu Kang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2023
  • This study predicted rice harvest date in South Korea using 11-year (2012-2022) hindcasts based on dynamically downscaled 2m air temperature at subseasonal (1-month lead) timescale. To obtain high (5 km) resolution meteorological information over South Korea, global prediction obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) double-nested modeling system. To estimate rice harvest date, the growing degree days (GDD) is used, which accumulated the daily temperature from the seeding date (1 Jan.) to the reference temperature (1400℃ + 55 days) for harvest. In terms of the maximum (minimum) temperatures, the hindcasts tends to have a cold bias of about 1. 2℃ (0. 1℃) for the rice growth period (May to October) compared to the observation. The harvest date derived from hindcasts (DOY 289) well simulates one from observation (DOY 280), despite a margin of 9 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the detailed predictive information for rice harvest date over South Korea based on the dynamical downscaling method.

Factors influencing happiness among Korean adolescents: With specific focus on the influence of psychological, relational and financial resources and academic achievement (한국 청소년의 행복: 심리적, 관계적, 경제적 자원과 학업성취의 영향)

  • Youngshin Park;Uichol Kim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.399-429
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this research examines the factors that influence happiness among Korean adolescents by focusing on psychological resource (as measured by self-efficacy), relational resource (as measured by social support) and financial resource (as measured by family's monthly income). In addition, the influence of academic achievement on happiness is examined. To examine the influence of socio-economic status and family's monthly income, adolescents living in three different districts in Seoul (from working to middle to upper class districts) were randomly selected and interviewed in their home. A total of 190 elementary school, middle school, high school and university students (male=83, female=107) completed the resiliency of efficacy scale developed by Bandura (1995) and emotional support and happiness scale developed by the present researchers, in addition to background information. The results of the path analysis are as follows. First, the most important predictor of happiness among Korean adolescents is relational resources. In other words, emotional support received from significant others was most predictive of happiness; more than 60 times the effect of family's monthly income, three times the effect of academic achievement, and two times the effect of resiliency of efficacy. The second most important factor that predicted the happiness of Korean adolescents was psychological resource (i.e., resiliency of efficacy), which had 30 times the effect of family's monthly income. In addition resiliency of efficacy played a mediating role between emotional support on one hand and happiness on the other. Third, those respondents who had higher academic achievement reported higher levels of happiness, which had 20 times the effect of family's monthly income. Fourth, family monthly income did not predict happiness among Korean adolescents. Fifth, socio-economic status and school level did not have direct influence on happiness but had mediating influence through their influence on emotional support. In other words, those respondents with higher socio-economic status and elementary school students were more likely to receive social support from significant others, which in turn increased their happiness. These results indicate that the most important predictor of happiness among Korean adolescents is emotional support, followed by resiliency of effic acy and academic achievement, indicating that those adolescents from wealthy families are not necessarily happier.

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Prediction of Species Distribution Changes for Key Fish Species in Fishing Activity Protected Areas in Korea (국내 어업활동보호구역 주요 어종의 종분포 변화 예측)

  • Hyeong Ju Seok;Chang Hun Lee;Choul-Hee Hwang;Young Ryun Kim;Daesun Kim;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.802-811
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    • 2023
  • Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.