• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction-Based

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Warm Season Hydro-Meteorological Variability in South Korea Due to SSTA Pattern Changes in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Region (열대 태평양 SSTA 패턴 변화에 따른 우리나라 여름철 수문 변동 분석)

  • Yoon, Sun-kwon;Kim, Jong-Suk;Lee, Tae-Sam;Moon, Young-IL
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-63
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional hydrologic variability during warm season (June-September) in South Korea due to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) pattern changes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). We performed composite analysis (CA) and statistical significance test by Student's t-test using observed hydrologic data (such as, precipitation and streamflow) in the 113 sub-watershed areas over the 5-Major River basin, in South Korea. As a result of this study, during the warm-pool (WP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year shows a significant increasing tendency than normal years. Particularly, during the cold-tongue (CT) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ decaying years clearly decreasing tendency compared to the normal years was appeared. In addition, the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years tended to show a slightly increasing tendency and maintain the average year state. In addition, from the result of scatter plot of the percentage anomaly of hydrologic variables during warm season, it is possible to identify the linear increasing tendency. Also the center of the scatter plot shows during the WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year (+17.93%, +26.99%), the CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (-8.20%, -15.73%), and the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (+8.89%, +15.85%), respectively. This result shows a methodology of the tele-connection based long-range water resources prediction for reducing climate forecasting uncertainty, when occurs the abnormal SSTA (such as, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$) phenomenon in the TPO region. Furthermore, it can be a useful data for water managers and end-users to support long-range water-related policy making.

Prediction of Nitrate Contamination of Groundwater in the Northern Nonsan area Using Multiple Regression Analysis (다중 회귀 분석을 이용한 논산 북부 지역 지하수의 질산성 질소 오염 예측)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Koh, Dong-Chan;Ko, Kyung-Seok;Yeo, In-Wook
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.57-73
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    • 2008
  • Nitrate concentrations were measured up to 49 mg/L (as $NO_3$-N) and 22% of the samples exceeded drinking water standard in shallow and bedrock groundwater of the northern Nonsan area. Nitrate concentrations showed a significant difference among land use groups. To predict nitrate concentration in groundwater, multiple regression analysis was carried out using hydrogeologic parameters of soil media, topography and land use which were categorized as several groups, well depth and altitude, and field parameters of temperature, pH, DO and EC. Hydrogeologic parameters were quantified as area proportions of each category within circular buffers centering at wells. Regression was performed to all the combination of variables and the most relevant model was selected based on adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. $R^2$). Regression using hydrogelogic parameters with varying buffer radii show highest Adj. $R^2$ at 50m and 300m for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively. Shallow groundwater has higher Adj. $R^2$ than bedrock groundwater indicating higher susceptibility to hydrogeologic properties of surface environment near the well. Land use and soil media was major explanatory variables for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively and residential area was a major variable in both shallow and bedrock groundwater. Regression involving hydrogeologic parameters and field parameters showed that EC, paddy and pH were major variables in shallow groundwater whereas DO, EC and natural area were in bedrock groundwater. Field parameters have much higher explanatory power over the hydrogeologic parameters suggesting field parameters which are routinely measured can provide important information on each well in assessment of nitrate contamination. The most relevant buffer radii can be applied to estimation of travel time of contaminants in surface environment to wells.

The Impact of Milk Production Level on Profit Traits of Holstein Dairy Cattle in Korea (국내 Holstein종 젖소의 생산수준이 젖소의 수익형질에 미치는 효과)

  • Do, Changhee;Park, Suhun;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Yunho;Choi, Taejeong;Park, Byungho;Yun, Hobaek;Lee, Donghee
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.343-349
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    • 2013
  • Data including 1,372,050 milk records pertaining to 438,019 cows from 1983 to 2011 collected during performance tests conducted by the National Livestock Cooperative Dairy Improvement Center were used to calculate milk income and profit of individuals and investigate the effects of production levels of early lactation (parity 1 and 2, respectively). Individuals with a moderate level of early lactation stayed longer in herds. Among parity 1, the 9,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactations than the overall mean of 3.13. The 7,000 kg or lower and 10,000 kg or higher groups had lower mean life time milking days than the overall mean of 1,076.8 days. Standard deviations of lifetime traits tended to decrease as production levels increased. For parity 2, the 11,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactation than the overall mean of 3.43. The lifetime milking days was highest in the 12,000 kg group (1,212.0 days), and generally smaller in the lower groups. Profit increased as the production level of groups increased for both parity 1 and 2. In groups with low production levels, profit of parity 1 was higher than that of parity 2, while the reverse was true in groups with high production levels. These results suggest that individuals in the low production groups had a greater likelihood to be culled due to reproductive or other problems. Furthermore, the accuracy of the prediction of lifetime profit of individuals with a milk yield of 305 days seems to be higher for parity 2 than parity 1; therefore, it is desirable to predict lifetime profit using the 305d milk yield of parity 2. In conclusion, breeding goals are based on many factors in functions for the estimation of profit; however, production levels during early lactation (parity 1 and 2) can be used as indicators of profit to extend profitability.

Development of simple tools for algal bloom diagnosis in agricultural lakes (농업용 호소의 조류 발생 진단을 위한 간편 도구의 개발)

  • Nam, Gui-Sook;Lee, Seung-Heon;Jo, Hyun-Jung;Park, Joo-Hyun;Cho, Young-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.433-445
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    • 2019
  • This study was designed to develop simple tools to easily and efficiently predict the occurrence of algal bloom in agricultural lakes. Physicochemical water quality parameters were examined to reflect the phytoplankton productivity in 182 samples collected from 15 agricultural lakes from April to October 2018. Total phytoplankton abundance was significantly correlated with chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) (r=0.666) and Secchi depth (SD) (r= -0.351). The abundances of cyanobacteria and harmful cyanobacteria were also correlated with Chl-a (r=0.664, r=0.353) and SD (r= -0.340, r= -0.338), respectively, but not with total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). The Chl-a concentration was correlated with SD (r= -0.434), showing a higher similarity than phytoplankton abundance. Therefore, Chl-a and SD were selected as diagnostic factors for algal bloom prediction, instead of analyzing the standing crop of harmful cyanobacteria used in algae alarm systems. Specifically, accurate diagnoses were made using realtime SD measurements. The algal bloom diagnostic tool is an inverse cone-shaped container with an algal bloom diagnosis chart that modified SD and turbidity measurement methods. Lake water was collected to observe the number of rings visible in the container or the number indicated in each ring, depending on the degree of algal bloom,and to determine the final stage of algal blooming by comparison to the colorimetric level on the diagnosis chart. For an accurate diagnosis, we presented 4-step diagnostic criteria based on the concentration of Chl-a and the number of rings and a fan-shaped algal bloom diagnosis chart with Hexa code names. This tool eliminated the variables and errors of previous methods and the results were easily interpreted. This study is expected to facilitate the diagnosis of algal bloom in agricultural lakes and the establishment of an efficient algal bloom management plan.

The Study on the Confidence Building for Evaluation Methods of a Fracture System and Its Hydraulic Conductivity (단열체계 및 수리전도도의 해석신뢰도 향상을 위한 평가방법 연구)

  • Cho Sung-Il;Kim Chun-Soo;Bae Dae-Seok;Kim Kyung-Su;Song Moo-Young
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.15 no.2 s.42
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    • pp.213-227
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    • 2005
  • This study aims to assess the problems with investigation method and to suggest the complementary solutions by comparing the predicted data from surface investigation with the outcome data from underground cavern. In the study area, one(NE-1) of 6 fracture zones predicted during the surface investigation was only confirmed in underground caverns. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the confidence level for prediction. In this study, the fracture classification criteria was quantitatively suggested on the basis of the BHTV images of NE-1 fracture zone. The major orientation of background fractures in rock mass was changed at the depth of the storage cavern, the length and intensity were decreased. These characteristics result in the deviation of predieted predicted fracture properties and generate the investigation bias depending on the bore hole directions and investigated scales. The evaluation of hydraulic connectivity in the surface investigation stage needs to be analyze by the groundwater pressures and hydrochemical properties from the monitoring bore hole(s) equipped with a double completion or multi-packer system during the test bore hole is pumping or injecting. The hydraulic conductivities in geometric mean measured in the underground caverns are 2-3 times lower than those from the surface and furthermore the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in geometric mean is six times lower than the vertical one. To improve confidence level of the hydraulic conductivity, the orientation of test hole should be considered during the analysis of the hydraulic conductivity and the methodology of hydro-testing and interpretation should be based on the characteristics of rock mass and investigation purposes.

Sensitivity of Aerosol Optical Parameters on the Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate (에어로졸 광학변수가 대기복사가열률 산정에 미치는 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Woo;Choi, In-Jin;Yoon, Soon-Chang;Kim, Yumi
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2013
  • We estimate atmospheric radiative heating effect of aerosols, based on AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and lidar observations and radiative transfer calculations. The column radiation model (CRM) is modified to ingest the AERONET measured variables (aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric parameter) and subsequently calculate the optical parameters at the 19 bands from the data obtained at four wavelengths. The aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere, and atmospheric absorption on pollution (April 15, 2001) and dust (April 17~18, 2001) days are 3~4 times greater than those on clear-sky days (April 14 and 16, 2001). The atmospheric radiative heating rate (${\Delta}H$) and heating rate by aerosols (${\Delta}H_{aerosol}$) are estimated to be about $3\;K\;day^{-1}$ and $1{\sim}3\;K\;day^{-1}$ for pollution and dust aerosol layers. The sensitivity test showed that a 10% uncertainty in the single scattering albedo results in 30% uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere and 60% uncertainties in atmospheric forcing, thereby translated to about 35% uncertainties in ${\Delta}H$. This result suggests that atmospheric radiative heating is largely determined by the amount of light-absorbing aerosols.

Prediction of Forest Fire Danger Rating over the Korean Peninsula with the Digital Forecast Data and Daily Weather Index (DWI) Model (디지털예보자료와 Daily Weather Index (DWI) 모델을 적용한 한반도의 산불발생위험 예측)

  • Won, Myoung-Soo;Lee, Myung-Bo;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Yoon, Suk-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2012
  • Digital Forecast of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) represents 5 km gridded weather forecast over the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding oceanic regions in Korean territory. Digital Forecast provides 12 weather forecast elements such as three-hour interval temperature, sky condition, wind direction, wind speed, relative humidity, wave height, probability of precipitation, 12 hour accumulated rain and snow, as well as daily minimum and maximum temperatures. These forecast elements are updated every three-hour for the next 48 hours regularly. The objective of this study was to construct Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems on the Korean Peninsula (FFDRS_KORP) based on the daily weather index (DWI) and to improve the accuracy using the digital forecast data. We produced the thematic maps of temperature, humidity, and wind speed over the Korean Peninsula to analyze DWI. To calculate DWI of the Korean Peninsula it was applied forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression analysis, i.e. $[1+{\exp}\{-(2.494+(0.004{\times}T_{max})-(0.008{\times}EF))\}]^{-1}$. The result of verification test among the real-time observatory data, digital forecast and RDAPS data showed that predicting values of the digital forecast advanced more than those of RDAPS data. The results of the comparison with the average forest fire danger rating index (sampled at 233 administrative districts) and those with the digital weather showed higher relative accuracy than those with the RDAPS data. The coefficient of determination of forest fire danger rating was shown as $R^2$=0.854. There was a difference of 0.5 between the national mean fire danger rating index (70) with the application of the real-time observatory data and that with the digital forecast (70.5).

Prediction of Dietary Protein-Energy Balance by Milk Urea Nitrogen and Protein Contents in Dairy Cow (젖소의 우유 중 단백질과 요소태질소 측정에 의한 사료의 에너지와 단백질 균형 상태 예측)

  • Moon, J.S.;Joo, Y.S.;Kang, H.M.;Jang, G.C.;Kim, J.M.;Lee, B.K.;Park, Y.H.;Son, C.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.573-584
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    • 2002
  • Milk urea nitrogen (MUN) and Milk protein (MP) are being used as indicators of the protein-energy balance and for actual farm feeding practices. The purpose of this study was to investigate the MUN and MP concentrations of individual cows and bulk tank milk to evaluate the dietary protein-energy balance from lactating Holstein cows. Mean MUN and MP concentrations in the milk samples obtained from 132,636 cows of 4,856 herd during Jan. 1999 to Dec. 2001 were 16.2 5.2mg/dl and 3.30 0.35%, respectively. The highest values were found during summer and lowest valued during winter in MUN. But, the average contents of MP were the highest during winter and the lowest during summer. In order to evaluate protein-energy balance for feeding, we set the level of recommended MP range of 2.90${\sim}$3.29% in early lactation considering a negative energy balance. The recommended level of MP in mid-lactation and late lactation were set as 3.10${\sim}$3.49%, and 3.30${\sim}$3.69%, respectively. Recommended MUN range of 12${\sim}$18 mg/dl was determined through the whole lactation period. Individual cows milk were analyzed by the 9 types based on this levels of MP and MUN in this study. Among the total cows investigated, 26.8%, 25.8%, and 22.2% have shown the recommended criteria of MP and MUN values, respectively. Also, of total herds surveyed, 11.6% had MUN values lower than 12.0 mg/dl and 32.9% had values higher than 18.0 mg/dl and 44.5% of total herd have not met with the recommended criteria of MP values in bulk tank milk. In case of MP, out of the total herd surveyed, 26.0% had MP values lower than 3.10% and 24.0% had values higher than 3.30% and 50.0% had MP values outside the recommended interval (3.1${\sim}$3.3%). This study has indicates that many dairy farms are under improper feeding management practice of the dietary protein-energy balance.

Leaching and mobility prediction of butachlor, ethoprophos, iprobenfos, isoprothiolane and procymidone in soils (Butachlor, ethoprophos, iprobenfos, isoprothiolane 및 procymidone의 토양 중 용탈과 이동성 예측)

  • Kim, Chan-Sub;Park, Kyung-Hun;Kim, Jin-Bae;Choi, Ju-Hyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.300-308
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to investigate the downward mobility of pesticides using soil colunms and to compare the experimental results with predicted values from Convective mobility test model. Five pesticides including ethoprophos, procymidone, iprobenfos, isoprothiolane, and butachlor were subjected to soil column leaching test for three types of cultivation soils. The concentrations of ethoprophos, iprobenfos, procymidone, isoprothiolane and butachlor leached from soil column of 30 cm depth ranged $0.74{\sim}3.61mg/mL,\;0.36{\sim}1.67mg/L,\;0.16{\sim}0.84mg/L,\;0.16{\sim}0.67mg/L$ and lower than 0.15 mg/L, respectively. Elution volume to reach the peak of ethoprophos, iprobenfos, procymidone, isoprothiolane and butachlor in the leachate ranged $2{\sim}4PV,\;3{\sim}10PV,\;5{\sim}13PV,\;4{\sim}14PV\;and\;19{\sim}61PV$, respectively. Convection times predicted by Convective mobility test model at standard conditions were $9{\sim}18$ days for ethoprophos, $17{\sim}35$ days for iprobenfos, $24{\sim}54$ days for isoprothiolane, $21{\sim}65$ days for procymidone and $105{\sim}279$ days for butachlor. Based on these convection times, ethoprophos was classified as mobile or most mobile, isoprothiolane and procymidone as moderately mobile or mobile and butachlor as slightly mobile. On the same conditions, convection times from the model were coincided with those from soil column test in most of the soil-pesticide combinations applied. Therefore, Convective mobility test model could be applied to predict convection times of pesticides.

Dissipation Pattern of Boscalid in Cucumber under Greenhouse Condition (시설 내 오이 재배 중 살균제 Boscalid의 잔류특성)

  • Lee, Jong-Hwa;Park, Hee-Won;Keum, Young-Soo;Kwon, Chan-Hyeok;Lee, Young-Deuk;Kim, Jeong-Han
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2008
  • The dissipation patterns of a boscalid in cucumber under greenhouse condition was investigated to establish pre-harvest residue limit (PHRL) and biological half-life. Initial concentration of boscalid in cucumber at standard application rate was $7.29\;mg\;kg^{-1}$ and decreased to $0.04\;mg\;kg^{-1}$ after 15 days with half-life of 1.9 day, while the initial concentration was $14.69\;mg\;kg^{-1}$ and decreased to $0.11\;mg\;kg^{-1}$ after same period with half lift of 2.0 day at double application rate. PHRL was suggested by prediction curve derived from the decay curve of boscalid at double rate treatment. For example, $10.39\;mg\;kg^{-1}$ was calculated for 10 days before harvest, and $1.73\;mg\;kg^{-1}$ for 5 days. Dilution effect was major factor far the decrease of boscalid residue due to fast increasement of weight of cucumber during cultivation. Final residues level of boscalid was predicted based on the dissipation curve and guideline on safe use, when boscalid was used to control powdery mildew and gray mold. At standard rate application, $1.26\;mg\;kg^{-1}$ and $1.33\;mg\;kg^{-1}$ were calculated as final residue levels for control powdery mildew and gray mold, respectively, which are above the MRL(Meximum Residue Limit).