• 제목/요약/키워드: Prediction risk

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A Study on Improving the Storm and Wind Damage Management System of Coastal Cities (연안도시 풍수해 관리체계 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sang-Baeg;Lee, Han-Seok
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.209-218
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    • 2019
  • Coastal cities suffer a great deal of storm and wind damage. The storm and wind characteristics vary between cities. Therefore, a storm and wind damage management system suited for specific characteristics is required for each coastal city. In this study, we analyze the current situation and establish the problem of storm and wind damage management system in regards to urban management, coastal management and disaster management. We also review the storm and wind damage management system for the USA and Japan. We consequently propose a plan to improve the storm and wind damage management system. As a result of the study, in terms of city management, we recommend the compulsory identification of disaster prevention districts, implementation of the integrated coastal city management plan, designation of natural disaster risk mitigation area as disaster prevention district, the division of disaster prevention district into wind damage prevention district, storm damage prevention district, erosion damage prevention district, the building of restrictions at the disaster prevention district by ordinance, etc. In regards to coastal management, we suggest the delegation of authority to delegate coastal erosion management area to the local government, the subdivision of coastal erosion management area into erosion serious area, erosion progress area, erosion concern area, the building restrictions at coastal erosion management area by ordinance, development of erosion prediction chart, etc. In relation to disaster management, we recommend the integration of "countermeasures against natural disasters act" and "disasters and safety management basic act", the local government-led disaster prevention system, the local disaster management network, and the customized local disaster prevention plan, etc.

A Study on the Urban Inundation Flooding Forecasting According to the Water Level Conditions (내수위 조건에 따른 도시내수침수 예보에 관한 연구)

  • Choo, Tai-ho;Choo, Yean-moon;Jeon, Hae-seong;Gwon, Chang-heon;Lee, Jae-gyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.545-550
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    • 2019
  • The frequency of natural disasters and the scale of damage are increasing due to the abnormal weather phenomenon occurring all over the world. As a result, as the hydrological aspect of the urban watershed changes, the increase in impervious area leads to serious domestic flood damage due to increased rainfall. In order to minimize the damage of life and property, domestic flooding prediction system is needed. In this study, we developed a flood nomogram capable of predicting flooding only by rainfall intensity and duration. This study suggests a method to set the internal water immersion alarm criterion by analyzing the characteristics of the flooding damage in the flooded area in the metropolitan area where flooding is highly possible and the risk of flooding is high. In addition, based on the manhole and the pipe, the water level was set as follows under the four conditions. 1) When manhole overflows, 2) when manhole is full, 3) when 70% of the pipe is reached, and 4) when 60% of the pipe is reached. Therefore, it can be used as a criterion and a predictive measure to cope with the pre-preparation before the flooding starts, through the rainfall that causes the flooding and the flooding damage.

Classify the Acute Drug Intoxication Patients with Poisoning Severity Score(PSS) and Calculate the Optimal Cutoff Value of PSS, PSSsum to Predict Poor Prognosis (급성 약물 중독 환자에서 Poisoning Severity Score (PSS)를 이용한 중증도 분류와 중증도 분류에 있어 PSS 값과 PSSsum 값의 Optimal Cutoff Value)

  • Park, Hyun Woo;Park, Ha Young;Kim, Han Byeol;Park, Keon Woo;Lee, Sang Hun;Lee, Hyun Wook;Lee, Je Won;Hwang, Tae Sik
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study examined the Poisoning Severity Score (PSS) from acute poisoning patients, to determine the relationships among the PSS, PSSsum, the primary outcome (prolonged stay at the ER over 24 hours, general ward and ICU admission and the application of intubation and mechanical ventilator, and the administration of inotropes). Methods: A retrospective study was conducted through the EMR for 15 months. The PSS grade was classified according to the evidence of symptoms and signs. The differences in the primary outcomes between the PSS of when a single organ was damaged, and the PSS, PSSsum combined with the grade of when multiple organs were damaged, were studied. The cutoff value was calculated using the receiving operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Results: Of the 284 patients; 85 (29.9%) were men with a mean age of 48.8 years, and their average arrival time to the ER was $4.4{\pm}6.7\;hours$. The most frequently used drug was hypnotics. The number of patients with PSS grade 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 was 17, 129, 122, 24, and one, respectively. No ICU admissions, application of intubation and mechanical ventilators, administration of inotropes were observed among the patients with PSS grades 0 and 1 but only on patients with PSS grades 2 to 4. At PSS, when separating the patients according to the number of damaged organs, 17 had no symptoms, 133 had one organ damaged, 75 had two organs damaged, 36 had three organs damaged, and 23 had four organs damaged. Significant differences were observed between increasing number of damaged organs and the primary outcome. Conclusion: Among the acute poisoning patients, the PSS was higher in severity when the grade was higher. The number of damaged organs and the primary outcome showed meaningful statistical differences. This study confirmed that when the patients' PSS>2 and PSSsum>5, the frequency of ICU admission was higher, and they were considered to be severe with an increased prescription risk of application of intubation and mechanical ventilator, and the administration of inotropes.

Comparison of Liquefaction Assessment Results with regard to Geotechnical Information DB Construction Method for Geostatistical Analyses (지반 보간을 위한 지반정보DB 구축 방법에 따른 액상화 평가 결과 비교)

  • Kang, Byeong-Ju;Hwang, Bum-Sik;Bang, Tea-Wan;Cho, Wan-Jei
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2022
  • There is a growing interest in evaluating earthquake damage and determining disaster prevention measures due to the magnitude 5.8 earthquake in Pohang, Korea. Since the liquefaction phenomena occurred extensively in the residential area as a result of the earthquake, there was a demand for research on liquefaction phenomenon evaluation and liquefaction disaster prediction. Liquefaction is defined as a phenomenon where the strength of the ground is completely lost due to a sudden increase in excess pore water pressure caused due to large dynamic stress, such as an earthquake, acting on loose sand particles in a short period of time. The liquefaction potential index, which can identify the occurrence of liquefaction and predict the risk of liquefaction in a targeted area, can be used to create a liquefaction hazard map. However, since liquefaction assessment using existing field testing is predicated on a single borehole liquefaction assessment, there has been a representative issue for the whole targeted area. Spatial interpolation and geographic information systems can help to solve this issue to some extent. Therefore, in order to solve the representative problem of geotechnical information, this research uses the kriging method, one of the geostatistical spatial interpolation techniques, and constructs a geotechnical information database for liquefaction and spatial interpolation. Additionally, the liquefaction hazard map was created for each return period using the constructed geotechnical information database. Cross validation was used to confirm the accuracy of this liquefaction hazard map.

Development of Time-based Safety Performance Function for Freeways (세부 집계단위별 교통 특성을 반영한 고속도로 안전성능함수 개발)

  • Kang, Kawon;Park, Juneyoung;Lee, Kiyoung;Park, Joonggyu;Song, Changjun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.203-213
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    • 2021
  • A vehicle crash occurs due to various factors such as the geometry of the road section, traffic, and driver characteristics. A safety performance function has been used in many studies to estimate the relationship between vehicle crash and road factors statistically. And depends on the purpose of the analysis, various characteristic variables have been used. And various characteristic variables have been used in the studies depending on the purpose of analysis. The existing domestic studies generally reflect the average characteristics of the sections by quantifying the traffic volume in macro aggregate units such as the ADT, but this has a limitation that it cannot reflect the real-time changing traffic characteristics. Therefore, the need for research on effective aggregation units that can flexibly reflect the characteristics of the traffic environment arises. In this paper, we develop a safety performance function that can reflect the traffic characteristics in detail with an aggregate unit for one hour in addition to the daily model used in the previous studies. As part of the present study, we also perform a comparison and evaluation between models. The safety performance function for daily and hourly units is developed using a negative binomial regression model with the number of accidents as a dependent variable. In addition, the optimal negative binomial regression model for each of the hourly and daily models was selected, and their prediction performances were compared. The model and evaluation results presented in this paper can be used to determine the risk factors for accidents in the highway section considering the dynamic characteristics. In addition, the model and evaluation results can also be used as the basis for evaluating the availability and transferability of the hourly model.

New record and prediction of the potential distribution of the invasive alien species Brassica tournefortii (Brassicaceae) in Korea (국내 침입외래식물 사막갓(Brassica tournefortii; Brassicaceae)의 보고 및 잠재 분포 예측)

  • KANG, Eun Su;KIM, Han Gyeol;NAM, Myoung Ja;CHOI, Mi Jung;SON, Dong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.184-195
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    • 2022
  • The invasive alien species Brassica tournefortii Gouan (Brassicaceae) is herein reported for the first time in Korea, from Gunsan-si, Gochang-gun, and Jeju-si. Brassica tournefortii can easily be distinguished from B. juncea and B. napus by its dense stiff hairs at the base of the stem and leaves, basally and distally branched stems, partially dehiscent fruits, and seeds that become mucilaginous in the presence of moisture. Although some taxonomists have classified this species as belonging to Coincya Rouy based on its fruit and seed characteristics, the existence of one vein on the fruit valves and our maximum likelihood analysis using internal transcribed spacer sequences placed it in Brassica. Distribution data, photographs, and a description of B. tournefortii are presented herein. Moreover, potential changes in the distribution of B. tournefortii were predicted under different climate scenarios, but our analysis showed that the probability of the spreading of this species is low. Nevertheless, continuous monitoring is necessary for an accurate assessment. The results of the present study can be used to conduct an invasion risk assessment and can assist with the effective management of this invasive alien species.

The Mediating Effect of Depression in the Relationship between Knee Pain and Cognitive Functions in Older Adults: Focusing on Group differences by Gender, Age, and Educational Attainment (노인의 무릎통증과 인지기능 간 영향관계에서 우울의 매개효과 -성별, 연령, 학력에 따른 집단별 차이를 중심으로-)

  • Ju, Mee-Ra;Kang, Chang-Hyun;Youk, Kyoung-Soo
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.207-218
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    • 2022
  • This study, to confirm the mediating effect of knee pain on cognitive functions and depression in older adults, and as an interdisciplinary research between the physical and psychological mechanisms, confirmed the identifying group differences by gender, age, and educational attainment of older adults, and aimed to research the improvement of cognitive functions, which is a main factor of dementia's risk prediction. The analysis data was from the 8th Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA) in 2020, and the research model was verified using Process macro and model #4. The main analysis results are as follows. First, depression partially mediation effect of knee pain on cognitive functions. Second, the mediation effect of depression by gender was significant, but the direct effect in the male older adults group was twice that in the female older adults; the indirect effect did not vary significantly based on gender. Third, the mediating effect of depression by age was relatively greater in the old-old aged group than in the young-old aged one. Fourth, as for the mediating effect of depression according to the classification of educational attainment, the mediating effect was not significant in the group with a college degree or higher education but was significant in the remaining three sub-groups. Based on the results, this study makes implications for the need for active intervention strategies to improve cognitive functions, focusing on group differences by gender, age, and educational attainment in the management of knee pain and depression.

Analysis of Relative Settlement Behavior of Retaining Wall Backside Ground Using Clustering (군집분류를 이용한 흙막이 벽체 배면 지반의 상대적 침하거동 분석)

  • Young-Jun Kwack;Heui-Soo Han
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2023
  • As urbanization and industrialization increase development in downtown areas, damage due to ground settlement continues to occur. Building collapse in urban has a high risk of leading to large-scale damage to life and property. However, there has rarely been studied on measurement data analysis methods when uneven loads are applied to the excavated ground and no prior knowledge of the ground. Accordingly, it was attempted to analyze the relative settlement behavior and correlation by processing the time-series surface settlement of construction sites in the urban. In this paper, the average index of difference in settlement and average of relative difference in settlement are defined and calculated, then plotted in the coordinate system to analyze the relative settlement behavior over time. In addition, since there was no prior knowledge of the ground, a standard to classify the clusters was needed, and the observation points were classified into using k-means clustering and Dunn Index. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that all the clusters moved to the stable region as the settlement amount converges. The clusters were segmented. Based on the analysis results, it was possible to distinguish between the independent displacement area and same behavior area by analyzing the correlation between measurement points. If possible to analyze the relative settlement behavior between the stations and classify the behavior areas, it can be helpful in settlement and stability management, such as uplift of the surrounding area, prediction of ground failure area, and prevention of activity failure.

Application of Artificial Intelligence Technology for Dam-Reservoir Operation in Long-Term Solution to Flood and Drought in Upper Mun River Basin

  • Areeya Rittima;JidapaKraisangka;WudhichartSawangphol;YutthanaPhankamolsil;Allan Sriratana Tabucanon;YutthanaTalaluxmana;VarawootVudhivanich
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.30-30
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to establish the multi-reservoir operation system model in the Upper Mun River Basin which includes 5 main dams namely, Mun Bon (MB), Lamchae (LC), Lam Takhong (LTK), Lam Phraphoeng (LPP), and Lower Lam Chiengkrai (LLCK) Dams. The knowledge and AI technology were applied aiming to develop innovative prototype for SMART dam-reservoir operation in future. Two different sorts of reservoir operation system model namely, Fuzzy Logic (FL) and Constraint Programming (CP) as well as the development of rainfall and reservoir inflow prediction models using Machine Learning (ML) technique were made to help specify the right amount of daily reservoir releases for the Royal Irrigation Department (RID). The model could also provide the essential information particularly for the Office of National Water Resource of Thailand (ONWR) to determine the short-term and long-term water resource management plan and strengthen water security against flood and drought in this region. The simulated results of base case scenario for reservoir operation in the Upper Mun from 2008 to 2021 indicated that in the same circumstances, FL and CP models could specify the new release schemes to increase the reservoir water storages at the beginning of dry season of approximately 125.25 and 142.20 MCM per year. This means that supplying the agricultural water to farmers in dry season could be well managed. In other words, water scarcity problem could substantially be moderated at some extent in case of incapability to control the expansion of cultivated area size properly. Moreover, using AI technology to determine the new reservoir release schemes plays important role in reducing the actual volume of water shortfall in the basin although the drought situation at LTK and LLCK Dams were still existed in some periods of time. Meanwhile, considering the predicted inflow and hydrologic factors downstream of 5 main dams by FL model and minimizing the flood volume by CP model could ensure that flood risk was considerably minimized as a result of new release schemes.

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Clinical Effect of Transverse Process Hook with K-Means Clustering-Based Stratification of Computed Tomography Hounsfield Unit at Upper Instrumented Vertebra Level in Adult Spinal Deformity Patients

  • Jongwon, Cho;Seungjun, Ryu;Hyun-Jun, Jang;Jeong-Yoon, Park;Yoon, Ha;Sung-Uk, Kuh;Dong-Kyu, Chin;Keun-Su, Kim;Yong-Eun, Cho;Kyung-Hyun, Kim
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2023
  • Objective : This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of transverse process (TP) hook system at the upper instrumented vertebra (UIV) for preventing screw pullout in adult spinal deformity surgery using the pedicle Hounsfield unit (HU) stratification based on K-means clustering. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed 74 patients who underwent deformity correction surgery between 2011 and 2020 and were followed up for >12 months. Pre- and post-operative data were used to determine the incidence of screw pullout, UIV TP hook implementation, vertebral body HU, pedicle HU, and patient outcomes. Data was then statistically analyzed for assessment of efficacy and risk prediction using stratified HU at UIV level alongside the effect of the TP hook system. Results : The screw pullout rate was 36.4% (27/74). Perioperative radiographic parameters were not significantly different between the pullout and non-pullout groups. The vertebral body HU and pedicle HU were significantly lower in the pullout group. K-means clustering stratified the vertebral body HU ≥205.3, <137.2, and pedicle HU ≥243.43, <156.03. The pullout rate significantly decreases in patients receiving the hook system when the pedicle HU was from ≥156.03 to < 243.43 (p<0.05), but the difference was not statistically significant in the vertebra HU stratified groups and when pedicle HU was ≥243.43 or <156.03. The postoperative clinical outcomes improved significantly with the implementation of the hook system. Conclusion : The UIV hook provides better clinical outcomes and can be considered a preventative strategy for screw-pullout in the certain pedicle HU range.