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http://dx.doi.org/10.12815/kits.2021.20.6.203

Development of Time-based Safety Performance Function for Freeways  

Kang, Kawon (Dept. of Smart City Eng., Univ. of Hanyang)
Park, Juneyoung (Dept. of Transportation and Logistics Eng., Smart City Eng., Univ. of Hanyang)
Lee, Kiyoung (Korea Expressway Corporation)
Park, Joonggyu (Korea Expressway Corporation)
Song, Changjun (Korea Expressway Corporation)
Publication Information
The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems / v.20, no.6, 2021 , pp. 203-213 More about this Journal
Abstract
A vehicle crash occurs due to various factors such as the geometry of the road section, traffic, and driver characteristics. A safety performance function has been used in many studies to estimate the relationship between vehicle crash and road factors statistically. And depends on the purpose of the analysis, various characteristic variables have been used. And various characteristic variables have been used in the studies depending on the purpose of analysis. The existing domestic studies generally reflect the average characteristics of the sections by quantifying the traffic volume in macro aggregate units such as the ADT, but this has a limitation that it cannot reflect the real-time changing traffic characteristics. Therefore, the need for research on effective aggregation units that can flexibly reflect the characteristics of the traffic environment arises. In this paper, we develop a safety performance function that can reflect the traffic characteristics in detail with an aggregate unit for one hour in addition to the daily model used in the previous studies. As part of the present study, we also perform a comparison and evaluation between models. The safety performance function for daily and hourly units is developed using a negative binomial regression model with the number of accidents as a dependent variable. In addition, the optimal negative binomial regression model for each of the hourly and daily models was selected, and their prediction performances were compared. The model and evaluation results presented in this paper can be used to determine the risk factors for accidents in the highway section considering the dynamic characteristics. In addition, the model and evaluation results can also be used as the basis for evaluating the availability and transferability of the hourly model.
Keywords
Safety analysis; Annual average daily traffic; Average hourly traffic; Safety performance function; Negative binomial regression;
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