• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.97-104
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• 2010

The materials failure relation $\ddot{\Omega}=A{(\dot{\Omega})}^\alpha$ where $\Omega$ is a measurable quantity such as displacement and the dot superscript is the time derivative, may be used to analyze the accelerating creep of materials. Coefficients, A and $\alpha$, are determined by fitting given data sets. In this study, it is tried to predict the failure time of tunnel using the materials failure relation. Four fitting techniques of applying the materials failure relation are attempted to forecast a failure time. Log velocity versus log acceleration technique, log time versus log velocity technique, inverse velocity technique are based on the linear least squares fits and non-linear least squares technique utilizes the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Since the log velocity versus log acceleration technique utilizes a logarithmic representation of the materials failure relation, it indicates the suitability of the materials failure relation applied to predict a failure time of tunnel. A linear correlation between log velocity and log acceleration appears satisfactory(R=0.84) and this represents that the materials failure relation is a suitable model for predicting a failure time of tunnel. Through comparing the real failure time of tunnel with the predicted failure times from four curve fittings, it is shown that the log time versus log velocity technique results in the best prediction.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.283-290
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• 2014

In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.9
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• pp.1281-1286
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• 2010

Power plants have many components and equipment. It is difficult for operators to know the time of failure or the equipment that fails. Plants incur heavy economic losses due to unexpected failure. The equipment in power plants is constantly monitored by various sensors and instruments. However, prevention of failure is very difficult. Therefore, engineers are developing many types of failure-alarm systems that can detect the abnormal functioning of equipment. Such failure-alarm systems inform only about the abnormal functioning of equipment and do not indicate the cause of failure or the parts that have failed. In this study, we have developed a failure-prediction system that can provide details on the cause of trouble and the maintenance method.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.19-24
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• 2011

Software failure time presented in the literature exhibit either constant monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing, For data analysis of software reliability model, data scale tools of trend analysis are developed. The methods of trend analysis are arithmetic mean test and Laplace trend test. Trend analysis only offer information of outline content. In this paper, we discuss forecasting failure time case of failure time censoring. In this study, time series analys is used in the simple moving average and weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing method for predict the future failure times, Empirical analysis used interval failure time for the prediction of this model. Model selection using the mean square error was presented for effective comparison.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.11
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• pp.476-484
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• 2006

The failure prediction and preventive maintenance for the equipment of nuclear power plant area using reliability-centered maintenance have been grown. On the other hand, the maintenance for power distribution system consists of time-based maintenance mainly. In this paper, the new maintenance algorithms for power distribution system are developed considering reliability indices. First of all, Time-varying failure rates are extracted from data accumulated at KEPCO using exponential distribution function and weibull distribution function. Next, based on the extracted failure rate, reliability for real power distribution system is evaluated for applying the effective maintenance algorithm which is the analytic method deciding the maintenance point of time and searching the feeder affecting the specific customer. Also the algorithm deciding the maintenance priority order are presented based on sensitivity analysis and equipment investment plan are analyzed through the presented algorithm at real power distribution system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.873-876
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• 2002

This paper presents the effect of internal corrosion, external corrosion, material properties, operation condition, earthquake, traffic load and design thickness in pipeline on the failure prediction using a failure probability model. A nonlinear corrosion is used to represent the loss of pipe wall thickness with time. The effects of environmental, operational, and design random variables such as a pipe diameter, earthquake, fluid pressure, a corrosion rate, a material yield stress and a pipe thickness on the failure probability are systematically investigated using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2002.06a
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• pp.403-410
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• 2002

This paper presents the effect of internal corrosion, external corrosion, material properties, operation condition, earthquake, traffic load and design thickness in pipeline on the failure prediction using a failure probability model. A nonlinear corrosion is used to represent the loss of pipe wall thickness with time. The effects of environmental, operational, and design random variables such as a pipe diameter, earthquake, fluid pressure, a corrosion rate, a material yield stress and a pipe thickness on the failure probability are systematically investigated using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

• International journal of steel structures
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.1384-1396
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• 2018

One of the failure modes observed in steel yield energy dissipating devices (SYEDs) excited by a strong earthquake would be the low-cycle fatigue failure. Fatigue cracks of a SYED are prone to initiate at the notch areas where stress concentration is usually occurred, which is demonstrated by the cyclic tests and analyses carried out for this study. Since the fatigue failure of SYEDs dramatically deteriorates their structural capacities, the thorough investigation on their fatigue life is usually required. To do this, sophisticated modeling with considering a time-consuming and complicate fracture mechanism is generally needed. This study makes an effort to investigate the low-cycle fatigue life of SYEDs predicted by a simplified method utilizing damage indices and fatigue prediction equations that are based on the plastic strain amplitudes obtained from typical finite element analyses. This study shows that the low-cycle fatigue failure of SYEDs predicted by the simplified method can be conservatively in good agreement with the test results of SYED specimens prepared for experimental validation.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.557-568
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• 2000

As time-variant reliability approaches become increasingly used for service life prediction of the aging infrastructure, the demand for computer solution methods continues to increase. Effcient computer techniques have become well established for the reliability analysis of structural systems. Thus far, however, this is largely limited to time-invariant reliability problems. Therefore, the requirements for time-variant reliability prediction of deteriorating structural systems under time-variant loads have remained incomplete. This study presents a computer program for $\underline{REL}$iability of $\underline{T}$ime-Variant $\underline{SYS}$tems, RELTSYS. This program uses a combined technique of adaptive importance sampling, numerical integration, and fault tree analysis to compute time-variant reliabilities of individual components and systems. Time-invariant quantities are generated using Monte Carlo simulation, whereas time-variant quantities are evaluated using numerical integration. Load distribution and post-failure redistribution are considered using fault tree analysis. The strengths and limitations of RELTSYS are presented via a numerical example.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.244-250
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• 1997

The mean time to failure (MTTF) expressing the mean value of the system life is a measure of system effectiveness. To estimate the remaining life of component and/or system, the dynamic mean time to failure concept is suggested. It is the time-dependent Property depending on the status of components. The Kalman filter is used to estimate the reliability of components using the on-line information (directly measured sensor output or device-specific diagnostics in the intelligent sensor) in form of the numerical value (state factor). This factor considers the persistency of the fault condition and confidence level in measurement. If there is a complex system with many components, each calculated reliability's or components are combined, which results in the dynamic MTTF or system. The illustrative examples are discussed. The results show that the dynamic MTTF can well express the component and system failure behaviour whether any kinds of failure are occurred or not.