• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction accuracy

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Numerical Prediction for Fluidized Bed Chlorination Reaction of Ilmenite Ore (일메나이트광의 유동층 염화반응에 대한 수치적 예측)

  • Chung, Dong-Kyu;Jung, Eun-Jin;Lee, Mi Sun;Kim, Jinyoung;Song, Duk-Yong
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2019
  • Numerical model that considered the shrinking core model and elutriation and degradation of particles was developed to predict selective chlorination of ilmenite and carbo-chlorination of $TiO_2$ in a two stage fluidized bed chlorination furnace. It is possible to analyze the fluidized bed chlorination reaction to be able to reflect particle distribution for mass balances and the chlorination reaction. The numerical model showed an accuracy with error less than 6% compared with fluidized bed experiments. The chlorination degree with particle size change was greater with a smaller particle size, and there was a 100 min difference to obtain a chlorination degree of 1 between $75{\mu}m$ and $275{\mu}m$. This was not shown to such a great extent with variation of temperature ($800{\sim}1000^{\circ}C$), and there was only a 10 min difference to obtain a chlorination degree of 0.9. In the first selective chlorination process, the mass reduction rate approached to the theoretical value of 0.4735 after 180 min, and chlorination changed the Fe component into $FeCl_2$ or $FeCl_3$ and showed nearly 1. In the second carbo-chlorination process, the chlorination degree of $TiO_2$ approached 0.98 and the mass fraction reached 0.02 with conversion into $TiCl_4$. In the first selective chlorination process, 98% of $TiO_2$ was produced at 180 min, and this was changed into 99% of $TiCl_4$ after an additional 90 min. Also the mass reduction rate of $TiO_2$ was reduced to 99% in the second continuous carbo-chlorination process.

Prediction of Energy Requirements for Maintenance and Growth of Female Korean Black Goats (번식용 교잡 흑염소의 유지와 성장을 위한 대사에너지 요구량 추정)

  • Lee, Jinwook;Kim, Kwan Woo;Lee, Sung Soo;Ko, Yeoung Gyu;Lee, Yong Jae;Kim, Sung Woo;Jeon, Da Yeon;Roh, Hee Jong;Yun, Yeong Sik;Kim, Do Hyung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2019
  • This study was conducted to predict the energy requirements for maintenance and growth of female Korean black goats during their growth and pregnancy phases. Fifty female goats ($18.7{\pm}0.27kg$) in their growth phase with an average age of 5 months were stratified by weight and randomly assigned into 5 groups. They were fed 5 diets varying in metabolic energy (ME) [2.32 (G1), 2.49 (G2), 2.74 (G3), 2.99 (G4), and 3.24 (G5) Mcal/kg] until they were 9-month-old. After natural breeding, 50 female goats ($30.7{\pm}0.59kg$) were stratified by weight and randomly assigned into 5 groups. They were fed 5 diets varying in ME [2.32 (P1), 2.43 (P2), 2.55 (P3), 2.66 (P4), and 2.78 (P5) Mcal/kg]. The average feed intake ranged between 1.5 and 2.0% of the body weight (BW), and there was no significant difference between the treatment groups with goats in growth or pregnancy phases. Average daily gain (ADG) in diet demand during the growth phase increased with an increasing ME density and ranged from 46 to 69 g/d (p<0.01). Feed conversion ratio (FCR) improved with the ME density during the growth phase (p<0.01). The intercept of the regression equation between ME intake and ADG indicated that energy requirement for maintenance of goats during growth and pregnancy phases was $103.53kcal/BW^{0.75}$ and $102.7kcal/BW^{0.75}$, respectively. These results may serve as a basis for the establishment of goat feeding standards in Korea. Further studies are required to assess the nutrient requirement of goats using various methods for improving accuracy.

A Study on Particulate Matter Forecasting Improvement by using Asian Dust Emissions in East Asia (황사배출량을 적용한 동아시아 미세먼지 예보 개선 연구)

  • Choi, Daeryun;Yun, Huiyoung;Chang, Limseok;Lee, Jaebum;Lee, Younghee;Myoung, Jisu;Kim, Taehee;Koo, Younseo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.531-546
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    • 2018
  • Air quality forecasting system with Asian dust emissions was developed in East Asia, and $PM_{10}$ forecasting performance of chemical transport model with Asian dust emissions was validated and evaluated. The chemical transport model (CTM) with Asian dust emission was found to supplement $PM_{10}$ concentrations that had been under-estimated in China regions and improved statistics for performance of CTM, although the model were overestimated during some periods in China. In Korea, the prediction model adequately simulated inflow of Asian dust events on February 22~24 and March 16~17, but the model is found to be overestimated during no Asian dust event periods on April. However, the model supplemented $PM_{10}$ concentrations, which was underestimated in most regions in Korea and the statistics for performance of the models were improved. The $PM_{10}$ forecasting performance of air quality forecasting model with Asian dust emissions tends to improve POD (Probability of Detection) compared to basic model without Asian dust emissions, but A (Accuracy) has shown similar or decreased, and FAR (False Alarms) have increased during 2017.Therefore, the developed air quality forecasting model with Asian dust emission was not proposed as a representative $PM_{10}$ forecast model in South Korea.

Development of Stand Yield Table Based on Current Growth Characteristics of Chamaecyparis obtusa Stands (현실임분 생장특성에 의한 편백 임분수확표 개발)

  • Jung, Su Young;Lee, Kwang Soo;Lee, Ho Sang;Ji Bae, Eun;Park, Jun Hyung;Ko, Chi-Ung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.109 no.4
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    • pp.477-483
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    • 2020
  • We constructed a stand yield table for Chamaecyparis obtusa based on data from an actual forest. The previous stand yield table had a number of disadvantages because it was based on actual forest information. In the present study we used data from more than 200 sampling plots in a stand of Chamaecyparis obtusa. The analysis included theestimation, recovery and prediction of the distribution of values for diameter at breast height (DBH), and the result is a valuable process for the preparation ofstand yield tables. The DBH distribution model uses a Weibull function, and the site index (base age: 30 years), the standard for assessing forest productivity, was derived using the Chapman-Richards formula. Several estimation formulas for the preparation of the stand yield table were considered for the fitness index, and the optimal formula was chosen. The analysis shows that the site index is in the range of 10 to 18 in the Chamaecyparis obtusa stand. The estimated stand volume of each sample plot was found to have an accuracy of 62%. According to the residuals analysis, the stands showed even distribution around zero, which indicates that the results are useful in the field. Comparing the table constructed in this study to the existing stand yield table, we found that our table yielded comparatively higher values for growth. This is probably because the existing analysis data used a small amount of research data that did not properly reflect. We hope that the stand yield table of Chamaecyparis obtusa, a representative species of southern regions, will be widely used for forest management. As these forests stabilize and growth progresses, we plan to construct an additional yield table applicable to the production of developed stands.

Smart farm development strategy suitable for domestic situation -Focusing on ICT technical characteristics for the development of the industry6.0- (국내 실정에 적합한 스마트팜 개발 전략 -6차산업의 발전을 위한 ICT 기술적 특성을 중심으로-)

  • Han, Sang-Ho;Joo, Hyung-Kun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2022
  • This study tried to propose a smart farm technology strategy suitable for the domestic situation, focusing on the differentiation suitable for the domestic situation of ICT technology. In the case of advanced countries in the overseas agricultural industry, it was confirmed that they focused on the development of a specific stage that reflected the geographical characteristics of each country, the characteristics of the agricultural industry, and the characteristics of the people's demand. Confirmed that no enemy development is being performed. Therefore, in response to problems such as a rapid decrease in the domestic rural population, aging population, loss of agricultural price competitiveness, increase in fallow land, and decrease in use rate of arable land, this study aims to develop smart farm ICT technology in the future to create quality agricultural products and have price competitiveness. It was suggested that the smart farm should be promoted by paying attention to the excellent performance, ease of use due to the aging of the labor force, and economic feasibility suitable for a small business scale. First, in terms of economic feasibility, the ICT technology is configured by selecting only the functions necessary for the small farm household (primary) business environment, and the smooth communication system with these is applied to the ICT technology to gradually update the functions required by the actual farmhouse. suggested that it may contribute to the reduction. Second, in terms of performance, it is suggested that the operation accuracy can be increased if attention is paid to improving the communication function of ICT, such as adjusting the difficulty of big data suitable for the aging population in Korea, using a language suitable for them, and setting an algorithm that reflects their prediction tendencies. Third, the level of ease of use. Smart farms based on ICT technology for the development of the Industry6.0 (1.0(Agriculture, Forestry) + 2.0(Agricultural and Water & Water Processing) + 3.0 (Service, Rural Experience, SCM)) perform operations according to specific commands, finally suggested that ease of use can be promoted by presetting and standardizing devices based on big data configuration customized for each regional environment.

Extraction of Water Body Area using Micro Satellite SAR: A Case Study of the Daecheng Dam of South korea (초소형 SAR 위성을 활용한 수체면적 추출: 대청댐 유역 대상)

  • PARK, Jongsoo;KANG, Ki-Mook;HWANG, Eui-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 2021
  • It is very essential to estimate the water body area using remote exploration for water resource management, analysis and prediction of water disaster damage. Hydrophysical detection using satellites has been mainly performed on large satellites equipped with optical and SAR sensors. However, due to the long repeat cycle, there is a limitation that timely utilization is impossible in the event of a disaster/disaster. With the recent active development of Micro satellites, it has served as an opportunity to overcome the limitations of time resolution centered on existing large satellites. The Micro satellites currently in active operation are ICEYE in Finland and Capella satellites in the United States, and are operated in the form of clusters for earth observation purposes. Due to clustering operation, it has a short revisit cycle and high resolution and has the advantage of being able to observe regardless of weather or day and night with the SAR sensor mounted. In this study, the operation status and characteristics of micro satellites were described, and the water area estimation technology optimized for micro SAR satellite images was applied to the Daecheong Dam basin on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, accuracy verification was performed based on the reference value of the water generated from the optical satellite Sentinel-2 satellite as a reference. In the case of the Capella satellite, the smallest difference in area was shown, and it was confirmed that all three images showed high correlation. Through the results of this study, it was confirmed that despite the low NESZ of Micro satellites, it is possible to estimate the water area, and it is believed that the limitations of water resource/water disaster monitoring using existing large SAR satellites can be overcome.

Observation of Ice Gradient in Cheonji, Baekdu Mountain Using Modified U-Net from Landsat -5/-7/-8 Images (Landsat 위성 영상으로부터 Modified U-Net을 이용한 백두산 천지 얼음변화도 관측)

  • Lee, Eu-Ru;Lee, Ha-Seong;Park, Sun-Cheon;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_2
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    • pp.1691-1707
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    • 2022
  • Cheonji Lake, the caldera of Baekdu Mountain, located on the border of the Korean Peninsula and China, alternates between melting and freezing seasonally. There is a magma chamber beneath Cheonji, and variations in the magma chamber cause volcanic antecedents such as changes in the temperature and water pressure of hot spring water. Consequently, there is an abnormal region in Cheonji where ice melts quicker than in other areas, freezes late even during the freezing period, and has a high-temperature water surface. The abnormal area is a discharge region for hot spring water, and its ice gradient may be used to monitor volcanic activity. However, due to geographical, political and spatial issues, periodic observation of abnormal regions of Cheonji is limited. In this study, the degree of ice change in the optimal region was quantified using a Landsat -5/-7/-8 optical satellite image and a Modified U-Net regression model. From January 22, 1985 to December 8, 2020, the Visible and Near Infrared (VNIR) band of 83 Landsat images including anomalous regions was utilized. Using the relative spectral reflectance of water and ice in the VNIR band, unique data were generated for quantitative ice variability monitoring. To preserve as much information as possible from the visible and near-infrared bands, ice gradient was noticed by applying it to U-Net with two encoders, achieving good prediction accuracy with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 140 and a correlation value of 0.9968. Since the ice change value can be seen with high precision from Landsat images using Modified U-Net in the future may be utilized as one of the methods to monitor Baekdu Mountain's volcanic activity, and a more specific volcano monitoring system can be built.

Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

A study on the derivation and evaluation of flow duration curve (FDC) using deep learning with a long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and soil water assessment tool (SWAT) (LSTM Networks 딥러닝 기법과 SWAT을 이용한 유량지속곡선 도출 및 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Ryel;An, Sung-Wook;Choi, Jin-Young;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1107-1118
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    • 2021
  • Climate change brought on by global warming increased the frequency of flood and drought on the Korean Peninsula, along with the casualties and physical damage resulting therefrom. Preparation and response to these water disasters requires national-level planning for water resource management. In addition, watershed-level management of water resources requires flow duration curves (FDC) derived from continuous data based on long-term observations. Traditionally, in water resource studies, physical rainfall-runoff models are widely used to generate duration curves. However, a number of recent studies explored the use of data-based deep learning techniques for runoff prediction. Physical models produce hydraulically and hydrologically reliable results. However, these models require a high level of understanding and may also take longer to operate. On the other hand, data-based deep-learning techniques offer the benefit if less input data requirement and shorter operation time. However, the relationship between input and output data is processed in a black box, making it impossible to consider hydraulic and hydrological characteristics. This study chose one from each category. For the physical model, this study calculated long-term data without missing data using parameter calibration of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physical model tested for its applicability in Korea and other countries. The data was used as training data for the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) data-based deep learning technique. An anlysis of the time-series data fond that, during the calibration period (2017-18), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the determinanation coefficient for fit comparison were high at 0.04 and 0.03, respectively, indicating that the SWAT results are superior to the LSTM results. In addition, the annual time-series data from the models were sorted in the descending order, and the resulting flow duration curves were compared with the duration curves based on the observed flow, and the NSE for the SWAT and the LSTM models were 0.95 and 0.91, respectively, and the determination coefficients were 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The findings indicate that both models yield good performance. Even though the LSTM requires improved simulation accuracy in the low flow sections, the LSTM appears to be widely applicable to calculating flow duration curves for large basins that require longer time for model development and operation due to vast data input, and non-measured basins with insufficient input data.

A Study on Intelligent Skin Image Identification From Social media big data

  • Kim, Hyung-Hoon;Cho, Jeong-Ran
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.27 no.9
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    • pp.191-203
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we developed a system that intelligently identifies skin image data from big data collected from social media Instagram and extracts standardized skin sample data for skin condition diagnosis and management. The system proposed in this paper consists of big data collection and analysis stage, skin image analysis stage, training data preparation stage, artificial neural network training stage, and skin image identification stage. In the big data collection and analysis stage, big data is collected from Instagram and image information for skin condition diagnosis and management is stored as an analysis result. In the skin image analysis stage, the evaluation and analysis results of the skin image are obtained using a traditional image processing technique. In the training data preparation stage, the training data were prepared by extracting the skin sample data from the skin image analysis result. And in the artificial neural network training stage, an artificial neural network AnnSampleSkin that intelligently predicts the skin image type using this training data was built up, and the model was completed through training. In the skin image identification step, skin samples are extracted from images collected from social media, and the image type prediction results of the trained artificial neural network AnnSampleSkin are integrated to intelligently identify the final skin image type. The skin image identification method proposed in this paper shows explain high skin image identification accuracy of about 92% or more, and can provide standardized skin sample image big data. The extracted skin sample set is expected to be used as standardized skin image data that is very efficient and useful for diagnosing and managing skin conditions.