• 제목/요약/키워드: Prediction accuracy

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The Accuracy of Prediction Models in Burn Patients (화상환자에서 사망예측모델의 성능 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Jaeyeon;Kym, Dohern
    • Journal of the Korean Burn Society
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of four prediction models in adult burn patients. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted on 696 adult burn patients who were treated at burn intensive care unit (BICU) of Hallym University Hangang Sacred Heart Hospital from January 2017 to December 2019. The models are ABSI, APACHE IV, rBaux and Hangang score. Results: The discrimination of each prediction model was analyzed as AUC of ROC curve. AUC value was the highest with Hangang score of 0.931 (0.908~0.954), followed by rBaux 0.896 (0.867~0.924), ABSI 0.883 (0.853~0.913) and APACHE IV 0.851 (0.818~0.884). Conclusion: The results of evaluating the accuracy of the four models, Hangang score showed the highest prediction. But it is necessary to apply the appropriate prediction model according to characteristics of the burn center.

Framework for improving the prediction rate with respect to outdoor thermal comfort using machine learning

  • Jeong, Jaemin;Jeong, Jaewook;Lee, Minsu;Lee, Jaehyun
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2022
  • Most of the construction works are conducted outdoors, so the construction workers are affected by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, and wind velocity which can be evaluated the thermal comfort as environmental factors. In our previous researches, it was found that construction accidents are usually occurred in the discomfort ranges. The safety management, therefore, should be planned in consideration of the thermal comfort and measured by a specialized simulation tool. However, it is very complex, time-consuming, and difficult to model. To address this issue, this study is aimed to develop a framework of a prediction model for improving the prediction accuracy about outdoor thermal comfort considering environmental factors using machine learning algorithms with hyperparameter tuning. This study is done in four steps: i) Establishment of database, ii) Selection of variables to develop prediction model, iii) Development of prediction model; iv) Conducting of hyperparameter tuning. The tree type algorithm is used to develop the prediction model. The results of this study are as follows. First, considering three variables related to environmental factor, the prediction accuracy was 85.74%. Second, the prediction accuracy was 86.55% when considering four environmental factors. Third, after conducting hyperparameter tuning, the prediction accuracy was increased up to 87.28%. This study has several contributions. First, using this prediction model, the thermal comfort can be calculated easily and quickly. Second, using this prediction model, the safety management can be utilized to manage the construction accident considering weather conditions.

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Improvement in Prediction Accuracy of Springback for Stamping CAE considering Tool Deformation (금형변형을 고려한 성형 CAE에서의 스프링백 예측정확도 향상)

  • Park, J.S.;Choi, H.J.;Kim, S.H.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.380-385
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    • 2014
  • An analysis procedure is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of springback as well as to evaluate the structural stability of the tooling used for fabricating a side sill part from UHSS. The analysis couples the stamping analysis and the subsequent analysis of the tool structural. The deformation and stress results for the tool structure are obtained from the proposed analysis procedure. The results show that the amount of deformation and stresses are so high that the tool structure must be reinforced and the tooling design must consider structural stability. Springback is predicted with CAE in order to compare the prediction accuracy between the given tool geometry and the geometry from the structural analysis. The simulation results with the deformed tool can predict the experimental springback tendency accurately.

Prediction and Accuracy Analysis of Photovoltaic Module Temperature based on Predictive Models in Summer (예측모델에 따른 태양광발전시스템의 하절기 모듈온도 예측 및 정확도 분석)

  • Lee, Yea-Ji;Kim, Yong-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2017
  • Climate change and environmental pollution are becoming serious due to the use of fossil energy. For this reason, renewable energy systems are increasing, especially photovoltaic systems being more popular. The photovoltaic system has characteristics that are affected by ambient weather conditions such as insolation, outside temperature, wind speed. Particularly, it has been confirmed that the performance of the photovoltaic system decreases as the module temperature increases. In order to grasp the influence of the module temperature in advance, several researchers have proposed the prediction models on the module temperature. In this paper, we predicted the module temperature using the aforementioned prediction model on the basis of the weather conditions in Incheon, South Korea during July and August. The influence of weather conditions (i.e. insolation, outside temperature, and wind speed) on the accuracy of the prediction models was also evaluated using the standard statistical metrics such as RMSE, MAD, and MAPE. The results show that the prediction accuracy is reduced by 3.9 times and 1.9 times as the insolation and outside temperature increased respectively. On the other hand, the accuracy increased by 6.3 times as the wind speed increased.

Reviving GOR method in protein secondary structure prediction: Effective usage of evolutionary information

  • Lee, Byung-Chul;Lee, Chang-Jun;Kim, Dong-Sup
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Bioinformatics Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.133-138
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    • 2003
  • The prediction of protein secondary structure has been an important bioinformatics tool that is an essential component of the template-based protein tertiary structure prediction process. It has been known that the predicted secondary structure information improves both the fold recognition performance and the alignment accuracy. In this paper, we describe several novel ideas that may improve the prediction accuracy. The main idea is motivated by an observation that the protein's structural information, especially when it is combined with the evolutionary information, significantly improves the accuracy of the predicted tertiary structure. From the non-redundant set of protein structures, we derive the 'potential' parameters for the protein secondary structure prediction that contains the structural information of proteins, by following the procedure similar to the way to derive the directional information table of GOR method. Those potential parameters are combined with the frequency matrices obtained by running PSI-BLAST to construct the feature vectors that are used to train the support vector machines (SVM) to build the secondary structure classifiers. Moreover, the problem of huge model file size, which is one of the known shortcomings of SVM, is partially overcome by reducing the size of training data by filtering out the redundancy not only at the protein level but also at the feature vector level. A preliminary result measured by the average three-state prediction accuracy is encouraging.

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Feature Selection with Ensemble Learning for Prostate Cancer Prediction from Gene Expression

  • Abass, Yusuf Aleshinloye;Adeshina, Steve A.
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.12spc
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    • pp.526-538
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    • 2021
  • Machine and deep learning-based models are emerging techniques that are being used to address prediction problems in biomedical data analysis. DNA sequence prediction is a critical problem that has attracted a great deal of attention in the biomedical domain. Machine and deep learning-based models have been shown to provide more accurate results when compared to conventional regression-based models. The prediction of the gene sequence that leads to cancerous diseases, such as prostate cancer, is crucial. Identifying the most important features in a gene sequence is a challenging task. Extracting the components of the gene sequence that can provide an insight into the types of mutation in the gene is of great importance as it will lead to effective drug design and the promotion of the new concept of personalised medicine. In this work, we extracted the exons in the prostate gene sequences that were used in the experiment. We built a Deep Neural Network (DNN) and Bi-directional Long-Short Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model using a k-mer encoding for the DNA sequence and one-hot encoding for the class label. The models were evaluated using different classification metrics. Our experimental results show that DNN model prediction offers a training accuracy of 99 percent and validation accuracy of 96 percent. The bi-LSTM model also has a training accuracy of 95 percent and validation accuracy of 91 percent.

Comparison of prediction accuracy for genomic estimated breeding value using the reference pig population of single-breed and admixed-breed

  • Lee, Soo Hyun;Seo, Dongwon;Lee, Doo Ho;Kang, Ji Min;Kim, Yeong Kuk;Lee, Kyung Tai;Kim, Tae Hun;Choi, Bong Hwan;Lee, Seung Hwan
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.438-448
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to increase the accuracy of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) predictions for domestic pigs using single-breed and admixed reference populations (single-breed of Berkshire pigs [BS] with cross breed of Korean native pigs and Landrace pigs [CB]). The principal component analysis (PCA), linkage disequilibrium (LD), and genome-wide association study (GWAS) were performed to analyze the population structure prior to genomic prediction. Reference and test population data sets were randomly sampled 10 times each and precision accuracy was analyzed according to the size of the reference population (100, 200, 300, or 400 animals). For the BS population, prediction accuracy was higher for all economically important traits with larger reference population size. Prediction accuracy was ranged from -0.05 to 0.003, for all traits except carcass weight (CWT), when CB was used as the reference population and BS as the test. The accuracy of CB for backfat thickness (BF) and shear force (SF) using admixed population as reference increased with reference population size, while the results for CWT and muscle pH at 24 hours after slaughter (pH) were equivocal with respect to the relationship between accuracy and reference population size, although overall accuracy was similar to that using the BS as the reference.

Development of the Plywood Demand Prediction Model

  • Kim, Dong-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.97 no.2
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    • pp.140-143
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    • 2008
  • This study compared the plywood demand prediction accuracy of econometric and vector autoregressive models using Korean data. The econometric model of plywood demand was specified with three explanatory variables; own price, construction permit area, dummy. The vector autoregressive model was specified with lagged endogenous variable, own price, construction permit area and dummy. The dummy variable reflected the abrupt decrease in plywood consumption in the late 1990's. The prediction accuracy was estimated on the basis of Residual Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Theil's Inequality Coefficient. The results showed that the plywood demand prediction can be performed more accurately by econometric model than by vector autoregressive model.

Sequence driven features for prediction of subcellular localization of proteins

  • Kim, Jong-Kyoung;Bang, Sung-Yang;Choi, Seung-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Bioinformatics Conference
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    • 2005.09a
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    • pp.237-242
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    • 2005
  • Predicting the cellular location of an unknown protein gives a valuable information for inferring the possible function of the protein. For more accurate prediction system, we need a good feature extraction method that transforms the raw sequence data into the numerical feature vector, minimizing information loss. In this paper, we propose new methods of extracting underlying features only from the sequence data by computing pairwise sequence alignment scores. In addition, we use composition based features to improve prediction accuracy. To construct an SVM ensemble from separately trained SVM classifiers, we propose specificity based weighted majority voting. The overall prediction accuracy evaluated by the 5-fold cross-validation reached 88.53% for the eukaryotic animal data set. By comparing the prediction accuracy of various feature extraction methods, we could get the biological insight on the location of targeting information. Our numerical experiments confirm that our new feature extraction methods are very useful for predicting subcellular localization of proteins.

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Prediction of Eggshell Ultrastructure via Some Non-destructive and Destructive Measurements in Fayoumi Breed

  • Radwan, Lamiaa M.;Galal, A.;Shemeis, A.R.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.993-998
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    • 2015
  • Possibilities of predicting eggshell ultrastructure from direct non-destructive and destructive measurements were examined using 120 Fayoumi eggs collected from the flock at 45 weeks of age. The non-destructive measurements included weight, length and width of the egg. The destructive measurements were breaking strength and shell thickness. The eggshell ultrastructure traits involved the total thickness of eggshell layer, thickness of palisade layer, cone layer and total score. Prediction of total thickness of eggshell layer based on non-destructive measurements individually or simultaneously was not possible ($R^2=0.01$ to 0.16). The destructive measurements were far more accurate than the non-destructive in predicting total thickness of eggshell layer. Prediction based on breaking strength alone was more accurate ($R^2=0.85$) than that based on shell thickness alone ($R^2=0.72$). Adding shell thickness to breaking strength (the best predictor) increased the accuracy of prediction by 5%. The results obtained indicated that both non-destructive and destructive measurements were not useful in predicting the cone layer ($R^2$ not exceeded 18%). The maximum accuracy of prediction of total score ($R^2=0.48$) was obtained from prediction based on breaking strength alone. Combining shell thicknesses and breaking strength into one equation was no help in improving the accuracy of prediction.