• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Technique

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Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Components of Gyeongancheon Watershed (기후변화가 경안천 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Min-Ji;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.33-50
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    • 2009
  • The impact on hydrologic components considering future potential climate, land use change and vegetation cover information was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated (1999 - 2000) and validated (2001 - 2002) for the upstream watershed ($260.4\;km^2$) of Gyeongancheon water level gauging station with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.77 to 0.60 and 0.79 to 0.60, respectively. Two GCMs (MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM) future weather data of high (A2), middle (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the data was corrected by 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model) and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. Three periods data of 2010 - 2039 (2020s), 2040 - 2069 (2050s), 2070 - 2099 (2080s) were prepared. To reduce the uncertainty of land surface conditions, future land use and vegetation canopy prediction were tried by CA-Markov technique and NOAA NDVI-Temperature relationship respectively. MIROC3.2 hires and ECHAM5-OM showed increase tendency in annual streamflow up to 21.4 % for 2080 A1B and 8.9 % for 2050 A1B scenario respectively. The portion of future predicted ET about precipitation increased up to 3 % in MIROC3.2 hires and 16 % in ECHAM5-OM respectively. The future soil moisture content slightly increased compared to 2002 soil moisture.

The Clinical Usefulness of Cephalometric Analysis in the Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (폐쇄성 수면 무호흡 증후군에서 두개골계측분석의 임상적 유용성)

  • Choi, Young-Mee;Lee, Sang-Haak;Kwon, Soon-Seog;Kim, Young-Kyoon;Kim, Kwan-Hyoung;Song, Jeong-Sup;Park, Sung-Hak;Moon, Hwa-Sik
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.218-230
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    • 1999
  • Background: Craniofacial anatomic abnormalities related to structural narrowing of the upper airway have been reported in patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. In this study, we evaluated the craniofacial anatomic characteristics of Korean patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, and the role of cephalometric analysis in the prediction of abnormal breathing during sleep. Methods: Thirty-nine patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome(OSAS), 39 simple snorers(simple snorers) and 20 controls(control) had cephalometric analysis using the technique of Riley et al, and underwent standardized polysomnographic recordings. Different variables, including sex, body mass index, cephalometric and polysomnographic data, were statistically analyzed. Results: Pm-UPW and V-LPW distances were significantly shorter in OSAS when compared with simple snorers or control. PAS in simple snorers was shorter than in control. ANS-Gn distance in OSAS was significantly longer than in control. PNS-P distance in OSAS or simple snorers was significantly longer than in control. MP-H distance in OSAS was significantly longer than in simple snorers or control and MP-H distance in simple snorers was also longer than in control. NL/Pm-P angle in OSAS was lesser than in control. MP-H distance in OSAS or in the combined groups of OSAS and simple snorers was significantly correlated with apneahypopnea index(AHI). PNS-P distance in the combined groups of OSAS and simple snorers was correlated with AHI. In male of all subjects, body mass index was significantly correlated with PNS-P or MP-H distance. Conclusion: Cephalometric analysis can be useful tool in determining the craniofacial anatomic abnormalities in patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Cephalometric parameters, especially MP-H distance, can be useful for predicting frequency of narrowing or obstruction of upper airway during sleep.

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DEVELOPMENT OF SAFETY-BASED LEVEL-OF-SERVICE CRITERIA FOR ISOLATED SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS (독립신호 교차로에서의 교통안전을 위한 서비스수준 결정방법의 개발)

  • Dr. Tae-Jun Ha
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.3-32
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    • 1995
  • The Highway Capacity Manual specifies procedures for evaluating intersection performance in terms of delay per vehicle. What is lacking in the current methodology is a comparable quantitative procedure for ass~ssing the safety-based level of service provided to motorists. The objective of the research described herein was to develop a computational procedure for evaluating the safety-based level of service of signalized intersections based on the relative hazard of alternative intersection designs and signal timing plans. Conflict opportunity models were developed for those crossing, diverging, and stopping maneuvers which are associated with left-turn and rear-end accidents. Safety¬based level-of-service criteria were then developed based on the distribution of conflict opportunities computed from the developed models. A case study evaluation of the level of service analysis methodology revealed that the developed safety-based criteria were not as sensitive to changes in prevailing traffic, roadway, and signal timing conditions as the traditional delay-based measure. However, the methodology did permit a quantitative assessment of the trade-off between delay reduction and safety improvement. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) specifies procedures for evaluating intersection performance in terms of a wide variety of prevailing conditions such as traffic composition, intersection geometry, traffic volumes, and signal timing (1). At the present time, however, performance is only measured in terms of delay per vehicle. This is a parameter which is widely accepted as a meaningful and useful indicator of the efficiency with which an intersection is serving traffic needs. What is lacking in the current methodology is a comparable quantitative procedure for assessing the safety-based level of service provided to motorists. For example, it is well¬known that the change from permissive to protected left-turn phasing can reduce left-turn accident frequency. However, the HCM only permits a quantitative assessment of the impact of this alternative phasing arrangement on vehicle delay. It is left to the engineer or planner to subjectively judge the level of safety benefits, and to evaluate the trade-off between the efficiency and safety consequences of the alternative phasing plans. Numerous examples of other geometric design and signal timing improvements could also be given. At present, the principal methods available to the practitioner for evaluating the relative safety at signalized intersections are: a) the application of engineering judgement, b) accident analyses, and c) traffic conflicts analysis. Reliance on engineering judgement has obvious limitations, especially when placed in the context of the elaborate HCM procedures for calculating delay. Accident analyses generally require some type of before-after comparison, either for the case study intersection or for a large set of similar intersections. In e.ither situation, there are problems associated with compensating for regression-to-the-mean phenomena (2), as well as obtaining an adequate sample size. Research has also pointed to potential bias caused by the way in which exposure to accidents is measured (3, 4). Because of the problems associated with traditional accident analyses, some have promoted the use of tqe traffic conflicts technique (5). However, this procedure also has shortcomings in that it.requires extensive field data collection and trained observers to identify the different types of conflicts occurring in the field. The objective of the research described herein was to develop a computational procedure for evaluating the safety-based level of service of signalized intersections that would be compatible and consistent with that presently found in the HCM for evaluating efficiency-based level of service as measured by delay per vehicle (6). The intent was not to develop a new set of accident prediction models, but to design a methodology to quantitatively predict the relative hazard of alternative intersection designs and signal timing plans.

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Measurement of Turbulence Properties at the Time of Flow Reversal Under High Wave Conditions in Hujeong Beach (후정해변 고파랑 조건하에서 파랑유속 방향전환점에서 발생하는 난류성분의 측정)

  • Chang, Yeon S.;Do, Jong Dae;Kim, Sun-Sin;Ahn, Kyungmo;Jin, Jae-Youll
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.206-216
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    • 2017
  • The temporal distribution of the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and the vertical component of Reynolds stresses ($-{\bar{u^{\prime}w^{\prime}}}$) was measured during one wave period under high wave energy conditions. The wave data were obtained at Hujeong Beach in the east coast of Korea at January 14~18 of 2017 when an extratropical cyclone was developed in the East Sea. Among the whole thousands of waves measured during the period, hundreds of regular waves that had with similar pattern were selected for the analysis in order to give three representing mean wave patterns using the ensemble average technique. The turbulence properties were then estimated based on the selected wave data. It is interesting to find out that $-{\bar{u^{\prime}w^{\prime}}}$ has one clear peak near the time of flow reversal while TKE has two peaks at the corresponding times of maximum cross-shore velocity magnitudes. The distinguished pattern of Reynolds stress indicates that vertical fluxes of such properties as suspended sediments may be enhanced at the time when the horizontal flow direction is reversed to disturb the flows, supporting the turbulence convection process proposed by Nielsen (1992). The characteristic patterns of turbulence properties are examined using the CADMAS-SURF Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model. Although the model can reasonably simulate the distribution of TKE pattern, it fails to produce the $-{\bar{u^{\prime}w^{\prime}}}$ peak at the time of flow reversal, which indicates that the application of RANS model is limited in the prediction of some turbulence properties such as Reynolds stresses.

Quantification of Protein and Amylose Contents by Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy in Aroma Rice (근적외선 분광분석법을 이용한 향미벼의 아밀로스 및 단백질 정량분석)

  • Kim, Jeong-Soon;Song, Mi-Hee;Choi, Jae-Eul;Lee, Hee-Bong;Ahn, Sang-Nag
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.603-610
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    • 2008
  • The principal objective of current study was to evaluate the potential of near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) as a non-destructive method for the prediction of the amylose and protein contents of un-hulled and brown rice in broad-based calibration models. The average amylose and protein content of 75 rice accessions were 20.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Additionally, the range of amylose and protein content were 16.6-24.5% and 3.8-9.3%, respectively. In total, 79 rice germplasms representing a wide range of chemical characteristics, variable physical properties, and origins were scanned via NIRS for calibration and validation equations. The un-hulled and brown rice samples evidenced distinctly different patterns in a wavelength range from 1,440 nm to 2,400 nm in the original NIR spectra. The optimal performance calibration model could be obtained by MPLS (modified partial least squares) using the first derivative method (1:4:4:1) for un-hulled rice and the second derivative method (2:4:4:1) for brown rice. The correlation coefficients $(r^2)$ and standard error of calibration (SEC) of protein and amylose contents for the un-hulled rice were 0.86, 2.48, and 0.84, 1.13, respectively. The $r^2$ and SEC of protein and amylose content for brown rice were 0.95, 1.09 and 0.94, 0.42, respectively. The results of this study suggest that the NIRS technique could be utilized as a routine procedure for the quantification of protein and amylose contents in large accessions of un-hulled rice germplasms.

Analysis and Prediction of Sewage Components of Urban Wastewater Treatment Plant Using Neural Network (대도시 하수종말처리장 유입 하수의 성상 평가와 인공신경망을 이용한 구성성분 농도 예측)

  • Jeong, Hyeong-Seok;Lee, Sang-Hyung;Shin, Hang-Sik;Song, Eui-Yeol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.308-315
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    • 2006
  • Since sewage characteristics are the most important factors that can affect the biological reactions in wastewater treatment plants, a detailed understanding on the characteristics and on-line measurement techniques of the influent sewage would play an important role in determining the appropriate control strategies. In this study, samples were taken at two hour intervals during 51 days from $1^{st}$ October to $21^{st}$ November 2005 from the influent gate of sewage treatment plant. Then the characteristics of sewage were investigated. It was found that the daily values of flow rate and concentrations of sewage components showed a defined profile. The highest and lowest peak values were observed during $11:00{\sim}13:00$ hours and $05:00{\sim}07:00$ hours, respectively. Also, it was shown that the concentrations of sewage components were strongly correlated with the absorbance measured at 300 nm of UV. Therefore, the objective of the paper is to develop on-line estimation technique of the concentration of each component in the sewage using accumulated profiles of sewage, absorbance, and flow rate which can be measured in real time. As a first step, regression analysis was performed using the absorbance and component concentration data. Then a neural network trained with the input of influent flow rate, absorbance, and inflow duration was used. Both methods showed remarkable accuracy in predicting the resulting concentrations of the individual components of the sewage. In case of using the neural network, the predicted value md of the measurement were 19.3 and 14.4 for TSS, 26.7 and 25.1 for TCOD, 5.4 and 4.1 for TN, and for TP, 0.45 to 0.39, respectively.

Research about feature selection that use heuristic function (휴리스틱 함수를 이용한 feature selection에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seok-Mi;Jung, Kyung-Sook;Chung, Tae-Choong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.3
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2003
  • A large number of features are collected for problem solving in real life, but to utilize ail the features collected would be difficult. It is not so easy to collect of correct data about all features. In case it takes advantage of all collected data to learn, complicated learning model is created and good performance result can't get. Also exist interrelationships or hierarchical relations among the features. We can reduce feature's number analyzing relation among the features using heuristic knowledge or statistical method. Heuristic technique refers to learning through repetitive trial and errors and experience. Experts can approach to relevant problem domain through opinion collection process by experience. These properties can be utilized to reduce the number of feature used in learning. Experts generate a new feature (highly abstract) using raw data. This paper describes machine learning model that reduce the number of features used in learning using heuristic function and use abstracted feature by neural network's input value. We have applied this model to the win/lose prediction in pro-baseball games. The result shows the model mixing two techniques not only reduces the complexity of the neural network model but also significantly improves the classification accuracy than when neural network and heuristic model are used separately.

Estimation of Precipitable Water from the GMS-5 Split Window Data (GMS-5 Split Window 자료를 이용한 가강수량 산출)

  • 손승희;정효상;김금란;이정환
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 1998
  • Observation of hydrometeors' behavior in the atmosphere is important to understand weather and climate. By conventional observations, we can get the distribution of water vapor at limited number of points on the earth. In this study, the precipitable water has been estimated from the split window channel data on GMS-5 based upon the technique developed by Chesters et al.(1983). To retrieve the precipitable water, water vapor absorption parameter depending on filter function of sensor has been derived using the regression analysis between the split window channel data and the radiosonde data observed at Osan, Pohang, Kwangiu and Cheju staions for 4 months. The air temperature of 700 hPa from the Global Spectral Model of Korea Meteorological Administration (GSM/KMA) has been used as mean air temperature for single layer radiation model. The retrieved precipitable water for the period from August 1996 through December 1996 are compared to radiosonde data. It is shown that the root mean square differences between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals range from 0.65 g/$cm^2$ to 1.09 g/$cm^2$ with correlation coefficient of 0.46 on hourly basis. The monthly distribution of precipitable water from GMS-5 shows almost good representation in large scale. Precipitable water is produced 4 times a day at Korea Meteorological Administration in the form of grid point data with 0.5 degree lat./lon. resolution. The data can be used in the objective analysis for numerical weather prediction and to increase the accuracy of humidity analysis especially under clear sky condition. And also, the data is a useful complement to existing data set for climatological research. But it is necessary to get higher correlation between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals for operational applications.

Comparison of Wind Vectors Derived from GK2A with Aeolus/ALADIN (위성기반 GK2A의 대기운동벡터와 Aeolus/ALADIN 바람 비교)

  • Shin, Hyemin;Ahn, Myoung-Hwan;KIM, Jisoo;Lee, Sihye;Lee, Byung-Il
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_1
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    • pp.1631-1645
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    • 2021
  • This research aims to provide the characteristics of the world's first active lidar sensor Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) wind data and Geostationary Korea Multi Purpose Satellite 2A (GK2A) Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) data by comparing two wind data. As a result of comparing the data from September 2019 to August 1, 2020, The total number of collocated data for the AMV (using IR channel) and Mie channel ALADIN data is 177,681 which gives the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.73 m/s and the correlation coefficient is 0.98. For a more detailed analysis, Comparison result considering altitude and latitude, the Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) is 0.2-0.3 at most latitude bands. However, the upper and middle layers in the lower latitudes and the lower layer in the southern hemispheric are larger than 0.4 at specific latitudes. These results are the same for the water vapor channel and the visible channel regardless of the season, and the channel-specific and seasonal characteristics do not appear prominently. Furthermore, as a result of analyzing the distribution of clouds in the latitude band with a large difference between the two wind data, Cirrus or cumulus clouds, which can lower the accuracy of height assignment of AMV, are distributed more than at other latitude bands. Accordingly, it is suggested that ALADIN wind data in the southern hemisphere and low latitude band, where the error of the AMV is large, can have a positive effect on the numerical forecast model.

Water Digital Twin for High-tech Electronics Industrial Wastewater Treatment System (I): e-ASM Development and Digital Simulation Implementation (첨단 전자산업 폐수처리시설의 Water Digital Twin(I): e-ASM 모델 개발과 Digital Simulation 구현)

  • Shim, Yerim;Lee, Nahui;Jeong, Chanhyeok;Heo, SungKu;Kim, SangYoon;Nam, KiJeon;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.63-78
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    • 2022
  • Electronics industrial wastewater treatment facilities release organic wastewaters containing high concentrations of organic pollutants and more than 20 toxic non-biodegradable pollutants. One of the major challenges of the fourth industrial revolution era for the electronics industry is how to treat electronics industrial wastewater efficiently. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an electronics industrial wastewater modeling technique that can evaluate the removal efficiency of organic pollutants, such as chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorous (TP), and tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH), by digital twinning an electronics industrial organic wastewater treatment facility in a cyber physical system (CPS). In this study, an electronics industrial wastewater activated sludge model (e-ASM) was developed based on the theoretical reaction rates for the removal mechanisms of electronics industrial wastewater considering the growth and decay of micro-organisms. The developed e-ASM can model complex biological removal mechanisms, such as the inhibition of nitrification micro-organisms by non-biodegradable organic pollutants including TMAH, as well as the oxidation, nitrification, and denitrification processes. The proposed e-ASM can be implemented as a Water Digital Twin for real electronics industrial wastewater treatment systems and be utilized for process modeling, effluent quality prediction, process selection, and design efficiency across varying influent characteristics on a CPS.