• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Process Prediction Process

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An intercomparison study between optimization algorithms for parameter estimation of microphysics in Unified model : Micro-genetic algorithm and Harmony search algorithm (통합모델의 강수물리과정 모수 최적화를 위한 알고리즘 비교 연구 : 마이크로 유전알고리즘과 하모니 탐색 알고리즘)

  • Jang, Jiyeon;Lee, Yong Hee;Joo, Sangwon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2017
  • The microphysical processes of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model cover the following : fall speed, accretion, autoconversion, droplet size distribution, etc. However, the microphysical processes and parameters have a significant degree of uncertainty. Parameter estimation was generally used to reduce errors in NWP models associated with uncertainty. In this study, the micro- genetic algorithm and harmony search algorithm were used as an optimization algorithm for estimating parameters. And we estimate parameters of microphysics for the Unified model in the case of precipitation in Korea. The differences which occurred during the optimization process were due to different characteristics of the two algorithms. The micro-genetic algorithm converged to about 1.033 after 440 times. The harmony search algorithm converged to about 1.031 after 60 times. It shows that the harmony search algorithm estimated optimal parameters more quickly than the micro-genetic algorithm. Therefore, if you need to search for the optimal parameter within a faster time in the NWP model optimization problem with large calculation cost, the harmony search algorithm is more suitable.

Applying Spitz Trace Interpolation Algorithm for Seismic Data (탄성파 자료를 이용한 Spitz 보간 알고리즘의 적용)

  • Yang Jung Ah;Suh Jung-Hee
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2003
  • In land and marine seismic survey, we generally set receivers with equal interval suppose that sampling interval Is too narrow. But the cost of seismic data acquisition and that of data processing are much higher, therefore we should design proper receiver interval. Spatial aliasing can be occurred on seismic data when sampling interval is too coarse. If we Process spatial aliasing data, we can not obtain a good imaging result. Trace interpolation is used to improve the quality of multichannel seismic data processing. In this study, we applied the Spitz algorithm which is widely used in seismic data processing. This algorithm works well regardless of dip information of the complex underground structure. Using prediction filter and original traces with linear event we interpolated in f-x domain. We confirm our algorithm by examining for some synthetic data and marine data. After interpolation, we could find that receiver intervals get more narrow and the number of receiver is increased. We also could see that continuity of traces is more linear than before Applying this interpolation algorithm on seismic data with spatial aliasing, we may obtain a better migration imaging.

A Comparative Model Study on the Intermittent Demand Forecast of Air Cargo - Focusing on Croston and Holts models - (항공화물의 간헐적 수요예측에 대한 비교 모형 연구 - Croston모형과 Holts모형을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Byung-Cheol;Park, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • A variety of methods have been proposed through a number of studies on sophisticated demand forecasting models that can reduce logistics costs. These studies mainly determine the applicable demand forecasting model based on the pattern of demand quantity and try to judge the accuracy of the model through statistical verification. Demand patterns can be broadly divided into regularity and irregularity. A regular pattern means that the order is regular and the order quantity is constant. In this case, predicting demand mainly through regression model or time series model was used. However, this demand is called "intermittent demand" when irregular and fluctuating amount of order quantity is large, and there is a high possibility of error in demand prediction with existing regression model or time series model. For items that show intermittent demand, predicting demand is mainly done using Croston or HOLTS. In this study, we analyze the demand patterns of various items of air cargo with intermittent patterns and apply the most appropriate model to predict and verify the demand. In this process, intermittent optimal demand forecasting model of air cargo is proposed by analyzing the fit of various models of air cargo by item and region.

A Study on the Structural Reinforcement for the Reduction of Transverse Vibration by Ship's Main Engine (선박 주기관에 의한 횡진동 저감을 위한 구조보강 연구)

  • Shin, Sang-Hoon;Ko, Dae-Eun;Im, Hong-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.279-285
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    • 2019
  • Transverse vibrations of a ship's aft end and deckhouse are mainly induced by transverse exciting forces from the main engine. Resonance should be avoided in the initial design stages when there is a prediction of resonance between the main engine and transverse modes of the deckhouse. Estimates of frequencies for resonance avoidance are possible from the specifications of the main engine and propeller, but the inherent vibration frequency of the structure around the engine room is not easy to estimate due to the variation in the shape. Experience-oriented vibration design is also carried out, which results in many problems, such as process delay, over-injection of on-site personnel, and iterative performance of the design. For the flexible design of 8,600 TEU container vessels, this study addressed the resonance problem caused by the transverse vibration of the main engine when only the main engine was changed from 12 cylinders to 10 cylinders without modification of the hull structure layout. Efficient structural reinforcement design guidelines are presented for avoiding resonances with the main engine lateral vibration and the structure around the engine room. The guidelines are expected to be used as practical design guidelines at design sites.

Correlation between Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of the Additive Manufactured H13 Tool Steel (적층 제조된 H13 공구강의 미세조직과 기계적 특성간의 상관관계)

  • An, Woojin;Park, Junhyeok;Lee, Jungsub;Choe, Jungho;Jung, Im Doo;Yu, Ji-Hun;Kim, Sangshik;Sung, Hyokyung
    • Korean Journal of Materials Research
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    • v.28 no.11
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    • pp.663-670
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    • 2018
  • H13 tool steels are widely used as metallic mold materials due to their high hardness and thermal stability. Recently, many studies are undertaken to satisfy the demands for manufacturing the complex shape of the mold using a 3D printing technique. It is reported that the mechanical properties of 3D printed materials are lower than those of commercial forged alloys owing to micropores. In this study, we investigate the effect of microstructures and defects on mechanical properties in the 3D printed H13 tool steels. H13 tool steel is fabricated using a selective laser melting(SLM) process with a scan speed of 200 mm/s and a layer thickness of $25{\mu}m$. Microstructures are observed and porosities are measured by optical and scanning electron microscopy in the X-, Y-, and Z-directions with various the build heights. Tiny keyhole type pores are observed with a porosity of 0.4 %, which shows the lowest porosity in the center region. The measured Vickers hardness is around 550 HV and the yield and tensile strength are 1400 and 1700 MPa, respectively. The tensile properties are predicted using two empirical equations through the measured values of the Vickers hardness. The prediction of tensile strength has high accuracy with the experimental data of the 3D printed H13 tool steel. The effects of porosities and unmelted powders on mechanical properties are also elucidated by the metallic fractography analysis to understand tensile and fracture behavior.

Prediction of itching diagnostic marker through RNA sequencing of contact hypersensitivity and skin scratching stimulation mice models

  • Kim, Young-Won;Zhou, Tong;Ko, Eun-A;Kim, Seongtae;Lee, Donghee;Seo, Yelim;Kwon, Nahee;Choi, Taeyeon;Lim, Heejung;Cho, Sungvin;Bae, Gwanhui;Hwang, Yuseong;Kim, Dojin;Park, Hyewon;Lee, Minjae;Jang, Eunkyung;Choi, Jeongyoon;Bae, Hyemi;Lim, Inja;Bang, Hyoweon;Ko, Jae-Hong
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.151-159
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    • 2019
  • Pruritus (itching) is classically defined as an unpleasant cutaneous sensation that leads to scratching behavior. Although the scientific criteria of classification for pruritic diseases are not clear, it can be divided as acute or chronic by duration of symptoms. In this study, we investigated whether skin injury caused by chemical (contact hypersensitivity, CHS) or physical (skin-scratching stimulation, SSS) stimuli causes initial pruritus and analyzed gene expression profiles systemically to determine how changes in skin gene expression in the affected area are related to itching. In both CHS and SSS, we ranked the Gene Ontology Biological Process terms that are generally associated with changes. The factors associated with upregulation were keratinization, inflammatory response and neutrophil chemotaxis. The Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway shows the difference of immune system, cell growth and death, signaling molecules and interactions, and signal transduction pathways. Il1a, Il1b and Il22 were upregulated in the CHS, and Tnf, Tnfrsf1b, Il1b, Il1r1 and Il6 were upregulated in the SSS. Trpc1 channel genes were observed in representative itching-related candidate genes. By comparing and analyzing RNA-sequencing data obtained from the skin tissue of each animal model in these characteristic stages, it is possible to find useful diagnostic markers for the treatment of itching, to diagnose itching causes and to apply customized treatment.

A Study on the Long-term Settlement Characteristics of Thick Clay Deposits Using Field Monitoring (대심도 연약지반의 현장계측을 이용한 장기침하거동특성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Wook;Im, Jong-Chul;Chang, Ji-Gun;Kang, Sang-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2018
  • Despite a number of studies on consolidation behavior that have been carried out in the Nakdong River estuary in Busan, these are focused on the prediction of final settlement during ground improvement process, and there is almost no research on the long-term settlement occurring after that. For the practical study on the long-term settlement, the field monitored settlement data that measured over 10 years in the Busan new port facilities area were used, and the final settlement and predicted time-settlement line were constituted by hyperbolic function. As a result, the measured settlements depend on the thickness of clayey soils, and the pattern were similar to each other and good agreement with the predicted time-settlement line using hyperbolic method. Also, the settlement in the lower non-improved layer occupied 62-76% of total settlement. Information about above results would be quite helpful to understand the long-term settlement behaviors as well as the non-improved layer's settlement is more careful consideration needed at design phase.

Development of Risk Assesment Index for Construction Safety Using Statistical Data (통계자료를 활용한 건설안전 위험도 평가지수 개발)

  • Park, Hwan-Pyo;Han, Jae-Goo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.361-371
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    • 2019
  • In 2017, the ratio of the number of victims and deaths in the construction industry was the highest with 25.2% and 29.6%, respectively. Especially, as safety accidents at construction sites continue to increase, the economic loss is greatly increased too. Therefore, in order to prevent safety accidents in the construction work, the safety risk assessment index by type of construction was developed, and the main results of this study are as follows. First, 17 factors related to safety accidents at construction sites were derived through survey and interview survey, and this study suggested 9 items(process, type of construction, progress rate, contract amount, number of floors, safety education, working days and weather) throughout the expert advisory meeting. Second, the risk assessment index for safety accidents was developed based on the ratio and intensity of safety accidents. Third, to verify the risk assessment model, the construction safety risk assessment index by type of construction was derived by surveying and analyzing the statistics of the construction accident. In addition, the risk strength was calculated by dividing human damage caused by construction safety accidents into those killed and injured. The risk assessment index based on the frequency and intensity of safety accidents by type of construction is expected to be utilized as basic data when assessing the risk of similar projects in the future.

Development of maintenance cost estimation method considering bridge performance changes (교량 성능변화를 고려한 유지관리비용 추계분석 방법 개발)

  • Sun, Jong-Wan;Lee, Huseok;Park, Kyung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.717-724
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    • 2018
  • To prepare for the explosive increase in maintenance costs of bridges according to the aging of infrastructure, future maintenance costs of bridges should be predicted. For this purpose, the management status of bridges was investigated and modeled as the upper limit of the performance level and the target management level according to the life cycle. This paper proposes methodologies and procedures for estimating the bridge maintenance costs using two models and existing cost and performance prediction models that consist of unit repair cost model according to the safety score, performance degradation model of bridges, unit reconstruction cost, and average reconstruction time. To verify the applicability, future maintenance costs can be forecasted for specific management agency considering the number of bridges, degree of aging, and current management status. As a result, it is possible to obtain the maintenance cost and safety level of an individual bridge level for each year. In addition, by summing them up to the agency level, the average safety score, ratio of the safety level, inspection costs, repair costs, and reconstruction costs can be obtained. In a further study, the changes in maintenance costs can be analyzed according to the changes in the target management levels using the developed method. The optimal management level can be suggested by reviewing the results.

An Analysis of the Relationship between the Achievement of Intellectual Property Education and Its Factors of College Students (대학생의 지식재산 교육 성취와 그 영향요인간의 관계 분석)

  • CHEE, Seonkoo;SUL, In Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.227-233
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    • 2021
  • To obtain a fruitful outcome in intellectual property (IP) education in colleges, it is essential to identify the affecting factors. The relationships between the factors were to be analyzed as a structural equation model. The IP education achievement was measured by the IP total score. The students' characteristics (input factor) were measured by defining the characteristics, parents' expectations, and IP interest. The characteristics after highschool (process factor) were observed as college satisfaction and learning attitude. Students with excellent defining characteristics have not only high college satisfaction but also an excellent learning attitude, so they have a high IP total score. Using indirect effects analysis, the path through which the defining characteristics indirectly affects the IP total score through college satisfaction and learning attitude was identified. This is consistent with the prediction that self-directed students will have high participation in IP classes and achieve excellent results. The IP interest was found to have no significant effect on the IP total score. This contradicts the belief that students with high IP interest will actively participate in IP classes and earn high scores, which is because it overlooks the possibility that participation in IP activities in high school is semi-forced.