• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Error estimate

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Impact parameter prediction of a simulated metallic loose part using convolutional neural network

  • Moon, Seongin;Han, Seongjin;Kang, To;Han, Soonwoo;Kim, Kyungmo;Yu, Yongkyun;Eom, Joseph
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.1199-1209
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    • 2021
  • The detection of unexpected loose parts in the primary coolant system in a nuclear power plant remains an extremely important issue. It is essential to develop a methodology for the localization and mass estimation of loose parts owing to the high prediction error of conventional methods. An effective approach is presented for the localization and mass estimation of a loose part using machine-learning and deep-learning algorithms. First, a methodology was developed to estimate both the impact location and the mass of a loose part at the same times in a real structure in which geometric changes exist. Second, an impact database was constructed through a series of impact finite-element analyses (FEAs). Then, impact parameter prediction modes were generated for localization and mass estimation of a simulated metallic loose part using machine-learning algorithms (artificial neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector machine) and a deep-learning algorithm (convolutional neural network). The usefulness of the methodology was validated through blind tests, and the noise effect of the training data was also investigated. The high performance obtained in this study shows that the proposed methodology using an FEA-based database and deep learning is useful for localization and mass estimation of loose parts on site.

Estimation of lightweight aggregate concrete characteristics using a novel stacking ensemble approach

  • Kaloop, Mosbeh R.;Bardhan, Abidhan;Hu, Jong Wan;Abd-Elrahman, Mohamed
    • Advances in nano research
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.499-512
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the efficiency of ensemble machine learning for predicting the lightweight-aggregate concrete (LWC) characteristics. A stacking ensemble (STEN) approach was proposed to estimate the dry density (DD) and 28 days compressive strength (Fc-28) of LWC using two meta-models called random forest regressor (RFR) and extra tree regressor (ETR), and two novel ensemble models called STEN-RFR and STEN-ETR, were constructed. Four standalone machine learning models including artificial neural network, gradient boosting regression, K neighbor regression, and support vector regression were used to compare the performance of the proposed models. For this purpose, a sum of 140 LWC mixtures with 21 influencing parameters for producing LWC with a density less than 1000 kg/m3, were used. Based on the experimental results with multiple performance criteria, it can be concluded that the proposed STEN-ETR model can be used to estimate the DD and Fc-28 of LWC. Moreover, the STEN-ETR approach was found to be a significant technique in prediction DD and Fc-28 of LWC with minimal prediction error. In the validation phase, the accuracy of the proposed STEN-ETR model in predicting DD and Fc-28 was found to be 96.79% and 81.50%, respectively. In addition, the significance of cement, water-cement ratio, silica fume, and aggregate with expanded glass variables is efficient in modeling DD and Fc-28 of LWC.

Traffic Emission Modelling Using LiDAR Derived Parameters and Integrated Geospatial Model

  • Azeez, Omer Saud;Pradhan, Biswajeet;Jena, Ratiranjan;Jung, Hyung-Sup;Ahmed, Ahmed Abdulkareem
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.137-149
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    • 2019
  • Traffic emissions are the main cause of environmental pollution in cities and respiratory problems amongst people. This study developed a model based on an integration of support vector regression (SVR) algorithm and geographic information system (GIS) to map traffic carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations and produce prediction maps from micro level to macro level at a particular time gap in a day in a very densely populated area (Utara-Selatan Expressway-NKVE, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia). The proposed model comprised two models: the first model was implemented to estimate traffic CO concentrations using the SVR model, and the second model was applied to create prediction maps at different times a day using the GIS approach. The parameters for analysis were collected from field survey and remote sensing data sources such as very-high-resolution aerial photos and light detection and ranging point clouds. The correlation coefficient was 0.97, the mean absolute error was 1.401 ppm and the root mean square error was 2.45 ppm. The proposed models can be effectively implemented as decision-making tools to find a suitable solution for mitigating traffic jams near tollgates, highways and road networks.

Experiment on Multi-Dimensioned IMM Filter for Estimating the Launch Point of a High-Speed Vehicle (초고속 비행체의 발사원점 추정을 위한 다중 IMM 필터 실험)

  • Kim, Yoon-Yeong;Kim, Hyemi;Moon, Il-Chul
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2020
  • In order to estimate the launch point of a high-speed vehicle, predicting the various characteristics of the vehicle's movement, such as drag and thrust, must be preceded by the estimation. To predict the various parameters regarding the vehicle's characteristics, we build the IMM filter specialized in predicting the parameters of the post-launch phase based on flight dynamics. Then we estimate the launch point of the high-speed vehicle using Inverse Dynamics. In addition, we assume the arbitrary error level of the radar for accuracy of the prediction. We organize multiple-dimensioned IMM structures, and figure out the optimal value of parameters by comparing the various IMM structures. After deriving the optimal value of parameters, we verify the launch point estimation error under certain error level.

Hydrologic Response Estimation Using Mallows' $C_L$ Statistics (Mallows의 $C_L$ 통계량을 이용한 수문응답 추정)

  • Seong, Gi-Won;Sim, Myeong-Pil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.437-445
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    • 1999
  • The present paper describes the problem of hydrologic response estimation using non-parametric ridge regression method. The method adapted in this work is based on the minimization of the $C_L$ statistics, which is an estimate of the mean square prediction error. For this method, effects of using both the identity matrix and the Laplacian matrix were considered. In addition, we evaluated methods for estimating the error variance of the impulse response. As a result of analyzing synthetic and real data, a good estimation was made when the Laplacian matrix for the weighting matrix and the bias corrected estimate for the error variance were used. The method and procedure presented in present paper will play a robust and effective role on separating hydrologic response.

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Creep-Life Prediction and Standard Error Analysis of Type 316LN Stainless Steel (Type 316LN 스테인리스 강의 크리프 수명 예측과 표준오차 분석)

  • Yun S.N.;Kim W.G.;Liu W.S.;Yi W.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.1406-1411
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    • 2005
  • The creep rupture data for type 316LN stainless steels were collected through literature survey or experimental data produced in KAERI. Using these data, polynomial equations for predicting creep life were obtained by Larson-Miller (L-M), Orr-Sherby-Dorn (O-S-D) and Manson-Haferd (M-H) etc. time-temperature parametric (TTP) methods. Standard error of estimate (SEE) values for the each parameter was obtained with different temperatures through the statistical process of the creep data. The results of L-M, O-S-D and M-H methods showed good creep-life prediction, but M-H method showed better agreement than L-M and O-S-D methods. Especially, it was found that SEE values of M-H method at $700^{\circ}C$ were lower than that of L-M and O-S-D methods.

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Prediction of Relative Deformation between Cutting Tool and Workpiece by Cutting Force [$1^{st}$ paper] (절삭력에 의한 공구와 공작물의 상대적 변형량 예측 [1])

  • Hwang, Young-Kug;Lee, Choon-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.27 no.9
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    • pp.86-93
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    • 2010
  • Any relative deformation between the cutting tool and the workpiece at the machining point, results directly in form and dimensional errors. The source of relative deformations between the cutting tool and the workpiece at the contact point may be due to thermal, weight, and cutting forces. Thermal and weight deformations can be measured at various positions of the machine tool and stored in the compensation registers of the CNC unit and compensated the errors during machining. However, the cutting force induced errors are difficult to compensate because estimation of cutting forces are difficult. To minimize the error induced by cutting forces, it is important to improve the machining accuracy. This paper presents the pre-calculated method of form error induced by cutting forces. In order to estimate cutting forces, Isakov method is used and the method is verified by comparing with the experimental results. In order to this, a cylindrical-outer-diameter turning experiments are carried out according to cutting conditions.

Creep-Life Prediction and Standard Error Analysis of Type 316LN Stainless Steel by Time-Temperature Parametric Methods (시간-온도 파라미터 방법에 의한 Type 316LN 강의 크리프 수명 예측과 표준오차 분석)

  • Yoon Song Nam;Ryu Woo Seog;Yi Won;Kim Woo Gon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.29 no.1 s.232
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    • pp.74-80
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    • 2005
  • A number of creep rupture data for type 316LN stainless steels were collected through literature survey or experimental data produced in KAERI. Using these data, polynomial equations for predicting creep life were obtained by Larson-Miller (L-M), Orr-Sherby-Dorn (O-S-D) and Manson-Haferd (M-H) parameters using time-temperature parametric (TTP) methods. Standard error of estimate (SEE) values for the each parameter was obtained with different temperatures through the statistical process of the creep data. The results of L-M, O-S-D and M-H methods showed good creep-life prediction, but M-H method showed better agreement than L-M and O-S-D methods. Especially, it was found that SEE values of M-H method at $700^{\circ}C$ were lower than that of L-M and O-S-D methods.

A Study on A Multi-Pulse Linear Predictive Filtering And Likelihood Ratio Test with Adaptive Threshold (멀티 펄스에 의한 선형 예측 필터링과 적응 임계값을 갖는 LRT의 연구)

  • Lee, Ki-Yong;Lee, Joo-Hun;Song, Iick-Ho;Ann, Sou-Guil
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.20-29
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    • 1991
  • A fundamental assumption in conventional linear predictive coding (LPC) analysis procedure is that the input to an all-pole vocal tract filter is white process. In the case of periodic inputs, however, a pitch bias error is introduced into the conventional LP coefficient. Multi-pulse (MP) LP analysis can reduce this bias, provided that an estimate of the excitation is available. Since the prediction error of conventional LP analysis can be modeled as the sum of an MP excitation sequence and a random noise sequence, we can view extracting MP sequences from the prediction error as a classical detection and estimation problem. In this paper, we propose an algorithm in which the locations and amplitudes of the MP sequences are first obtained by applying a likelihood ratio test (LRT) to the prediction error, and LP coefficients free of pitch bias are then obtained from the MP sequences. To verify the performance enhancement, we iterate the above procedure with adaptive threshold at each step.

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Slope stability prediction using ANFIS models optimized with metaheuristic science

  • Gu, Yu-tian;Xu, Yong-xuan;Moayedi, Hossein;Zhao, Jian-wei;Le, Binh Nguyen
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.339-352
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    • 2022
  • Studying slope stability is an important branch of civil engineering. In this way, engineers have employed machine learning models, due to their high efficiency in complex calculations. This paper examines the robustness of various novel optimization schemes, namely equilibrium optimizer (EO), Harris hawks optimization (HHO), water cycle algorithm (WCA), biogeography-based optimization (BBO), dragonfly algorithm (DA), grey wolf optimization (GWO), and teaching learning-based optimization (TLBO) for enhancing the performance of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in slope stability prediction. The hybrid models estimate the factor of safety (FS) of a cohesive soil-footing system. The role of these algorithms lies in finding the optimal parameters of the membership function in the fuzzy system. By examining the convergence proceeding of the proposed hybrids, the best population sizes are selected, and the corresponding results are compared to the typical ANFIS. Accuracy assessments via root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and Pearson correlation coefficient showed that all models can reliably understand and reproduce the FS behavior. Moreover, applying the WCA, EO, GWO, and TLBO resulted in reducing both learning and prediction error of the ANFIS. Also, an efficiency comparison demonstrated the WCA-ANFIS as the most accurate hybrid, while the GWO-ANFIS was the fastest promising model. Overall, the findings of this research professed the suitability of improved intelligent models for practical slope stability evaluations.