• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction#4

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Prediction of Isothermal and Reacting Flows in Widely-Spaced Coaxial Jet, Diffusion-Flame Combustor (큰 지름비를 가지는 동축제트 확산화염 연소기내의 등온 및 연소 유동장의 예측)

  • O, Gun-Seop;An, Guk-Yeong;Kim, Yong-Mo;Lee, Chang-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.2386-2396
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    • 1996
  • A numerical simulation has been performed for isothermal and reacting flows in an exisymmetric, bluff-body research combustor. The present formulation is based on the density-weighted averaged Navier-Stokes equations together with a k-epsilon. turbulence model and a modified eddy-breakup combustion model. The PISO algorithm is employed for solution of thel Navier-Stokes system. Comparison between measurements and predictions are made for a centerline axial velocities, location of stagnation points, strength of recirculation zone, and temperature profile. Even though the numerical simulation gives acceptable agreement with experimental data in many respects, the present model is defictient in predicting the recoveryt rate of a central near-wake region, the non-isotropic turbulence effects, and variation of turbulent Schmidt number. Several possible explanations for these discrepancies have been discussed.

An Effect of the Self-Regulation Program for Hypertensives -Synthesis & testing of Orem and Bandura's theory- (본태성 고혈압 환자의 자가간호증진을 위한 자기조절 프로그램 효과 -Orem이론과 Bandura이론의 합성과 검증-)

  • Park, Young-Im;Hong, Yeo-Shin
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.109-129
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    • 1994
  • Chronic health problems has become a major concern and challenge to the health care professionals today. Especially hypertension, one of the leading primary cause of death in Korea, is a typical chronic disease requiring adequate and continuous management. Though these hypertensives need to maintain desirable health practice by themselves for their life time, many previous studies indicated that most of the essential hypertensives have no specific symptoms and thus, reluctant to follow appropriate medical regimens causing the condition further aggravated and complicated. Self-care is an essential factor that keeps chronic patients in control of their health and wellness. Thus this study was conducted to identify the effect of the comprehensive self-regulation program as a nursing intervention on the promotion self-care performance and improvement in physical parameters of hypertensives. For this purpose, a one group quasi-experimental research with pre and post test design was used. The subjects of the study was consisted of thirty persons with mild or moderate essential hypertension from two companies in Cheong-ju city. The whole program was carried out from October, 1993 to February, 1994. The self-regulation program was consisted with group education on hypertension and self-care, self-regulation including the blood pressure self-monitoring and recording, recording of daily self-care activities, and encouraging and reinforcing self-efficacy through verbal persuation and enactive attainment. The subjects were asked to measure their own blood pressure by themselves twice per day and to record blood pressure and the daily self-care performance according to the instructions provided during the whole period of 9 weeks. The instruments used for data collection in this study were as follows : 1) Instruments used for measuring the knowledge about hypertension, multiple health locus of control, and perceived benifits and barriers were adapted from previous studies and modified by author to be fit for the subjects. 2) Self-efficacy scale and self-care performance record were developed by the author. 3) Physiological parameters included systolic / diastolic blood pressure, body weight, level of blood cholesterol, and 24hour ambulatory blood pressure. The post-experimental Cronbach's Alpha as the reliability test of scales were 0.703-0.897, an appropriate level of confidence. The effect of the program was analyzed by experimental stages ; the first week, the fifth week, and the ninth week since the experimental imput began. Data were analyzed by the SPSS PC+ program with paired t-test and t-test, repeated measure ANOVA, and pearson's correlation to de termine the effect of program. The results were as follows : 1) After the self-regulation program, scores on knowledge(t=-2.41, p=.011), perceived self-efficacy (F=5.60, p=.001), self-care performance(F=22.31, p=.0001) were significantly higher than those before the program. 2) After the program, both systolic and diastolic blood pressure were significantly lower than those before the program(F=10.89 -13.11, p=.0001). However in 24hour ambulatory blood pressure, systolic mean pressure was nearly significantly lower, but not in diastolic mean pressure. 3) After the program, the body weight was significant decresed(t=5.53, p=.0001), but the blood cholesterol level was not decreased significantly except in those cases with higher cholesterol level. 4) There were significant relationships between changes in self-care performance and diastolic pressure at 1st week (r=.3389, p=.033) and changes in self-care performance and systolic pressure at 9th week(r=.3651, p=.024). 5) There were significant relationship between perceived self-efficacy and self-care performance at 5th week(r=.5313, p=.001) and 9th week (r=.3026, p=.052). 6) After the program, internal health locus of control and perceived benefits did not show significant change, but perceived barriers was significantly lower than those before the program (t=3.57, p=.0001). From the above results, it can be concluded that 1) The self-regulation program is an effective nursing strategy to promote self-care performance of hypertensives and to lower the blood pressure. Thus this program can be recommended in the management of the hypertensives in workplaces and community settings. 2) The synthesis of Orem's self-care theory and Bandura's self-regulation & self-efficacy theory in this study was proved to enhance explanation and prediction of the change of self-care behavior. Thus the result of the study would contribute in development of the self-care theory and an expansion of practice-theory.

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Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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정지궤도 통신해양기상위성의 기상분야 요구사항에 관하여

  • Ahn, Myung-Hwan;Kim, Kum-Lan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.20-42
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    • 2002
  • Based on the "Mid to Long Term Plan for Space Development", a project to launch COMeS (Communication, Oceanography, and Meteorological Satellite) into the geostationary orbit is undergoing. Accordingly, KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has defined the meteorological missions and prepared the user requirements to fulfill the missions. To make a realistic user requirements, we prepared a first draft based on the ideal meteorological products derivable from a geostationary platform and sent the RFI (request for information) to the sensor manufacturers. Based on the responses to the RFI and other considerations, we revised the user requirement to be a realistic plan for the 2008 launch of the satellite. This manuscript introduces the revised user requirements briefly. The major mission defined in the revised user requirement is the augmentation of the detection and prediction ability of the severe weather phenomena, especially around the Korean Peninsula. The required payload is an enhanced Imager, which includes the major observation channels of the current geostationary sounder. To derive the required meteorological products from the Imager, at least 12 channels are required with the optimum of 16 channels. The minimum 12 channels are 6 wavelength bands used for current geostationary satellite, and additional channels in two visible bands, a near infrared band, two water vapor bands and one ozone absorption band. From these enhanced channel observation, we are going to derive and utilize the information of water vapor, stability index, wind field, and analysis of special weather phenomena such as the yellow sand event in addition to the standard derived products from the current geostationary Imager data. For a better temporal coverage, the Imager is required to acquire the full disk data within 15 minutes and to have the rapid scan mode for the limited area coverage. The required thresholds of spatial resolutions are 1 km and 2 km for visible and infrared channels, respectively, while the target resolutions are 0.5 km and 1 km.

Predictors of Clinically Non Specific Bacterial Infection in Febrile Children Less than 3 Years of Age : WBC, ESR and CRP (비특이적 소견을 보이는 3세 이하의 발열 환아에서 세균성 감염의 예측 인자 : 백혈구 수, 적혈구 침강 속도, C-반응성 단백질)

  • Nho, Jeong A;Rho, Young Il;Yang, Eun Seuk;Kim, Eun Young;Park, Yeong Bong;Moon, Kyung Rye
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.758-762
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Our examination was designed to determine the diagnostic properties of the cutoff point for the prediction of bacteremia in febrile children less than 3 years of age. Cutoff point is the value that simultaneously maximizes both sensitivity and specificity. Methods : We conducted a retrospective study of febrile children, less than 3 years of age, who clinically have no identifiable source of fever. Peripheral blood leukocyte count(WBC), absolute neutrophil count(ANC), erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR) and C-reactive protein(CRP) were measured at the same time. All patients received blood culture, urine culture and/or CSF culture. Bacterial infection was defined as single pathogen isolated from the CSF or blood or a urinary tract infection (UTI). Patients were dichotomized into two groups : those with bacterial infection and no bacterial infection. We analyzed the characteristics of the children in the two groups. Results : Seventy-one patients(44 males; 27 females) were enrolled in the study. Twenty patients (28%) had a serious bacterial infection(twelve urinary tract infection, five bacteremia, three meningitis) and fifty-one(72%) had no serious bacterial infection. WBC, ESR and CRP were significantly different between the two groups(P<0.05). The cutoff point of WBC, ESR and CRP were $20,000/mm^3$, 30 mm/hr and 3.0 mg/dL, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of each cutoff point were WBC(75%, 75%), ESR(79%, 68%) and CRP(83%, 77%), respectively. Conclusion : These data show the ability of predictors to identify febrile children less than 3 years of age with bacterial infection. Febrile children who reach the cutoff point must be treated intensively and those who do not reach the cutoff point can be carefully managed without administering antimicrobial agents.

Prediction of Forest Fire Danger Rating over the Korean Peninsula with the Digital Forecast Data and Daily Weather Index (DWI) Model (디지털예보자료와 Daily Weather Index (DWI) 모델을 적용한 한반도의 산불발생위험 예측)

  • Won, Myoung-Soo;Lee, Myung-Bo;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Yoon, Suk-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2012
  • Digital Forecast of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) represents 5 km gridded weather forecast over the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding oceanic regions in Korean territory. Digital Forecast provides 12 weather forecast elements such as three-hour interval temperature, sky condition, wind direction, wind speed, relative humidity, wave height, probability of precipitation, 12 hour accumulated rain and snow, as well as daily minimum and maximum temperatures. These forecast elements are updated every three-hour for the next 48 hours regularly. The objective of this study was to construct Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems on the Korean Peninsula (FFDRS_KORP) based on the daily weather index (DWI) and to improve the accuracy using the digital forecast data. We produced the thematic maps of temperature, humidity, and wind speed over the Korean Peninsula to analyze DWI. To calculate DWI of the Korean Peninsula it was applied forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression analysis, i.e. $[1+{\exp}\{-(2.494+(0.004{\times}T_{max})-(0.008{\times}EF))\}]^{-1}$. The result of verification test among the real-time observatory data, digital forecast and RDAPS data showed that predicting values of the digital forecast advanced more than those of RDAPS data. The results of the comparison with the average forest fire danger rating index (sampled at 233 administrative districts) and those with the digital weather showed higher relative accuracy than those with the RDAPS data. The coefficient of determination of forest fire danger rating was shown as $R^2$=0.854. There was a difference of 0.5 between the national mean fire danger rating index (70) with the application of the real-time observatory data and that with the digital forecast (70.5).

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

The Simulation of Pore Size Distribution from Unsaturated Hydraulic Conductivity Data Using the Hydraulic Functions (토양 수리학적 함수를 이용한 불포화 수리전도도로부터 공극크기분포의 모사)

  • Yoon, Young-Man;Kim, Jeong-Gyu;Shin, Kook-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.407-414
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    • 2010
  • Until now, the pore size distribution, PSD, of soil profile has been calculated from soil moisture characteristic data by water release method or mercury porosimetry using the capillary rise equation. But the current methods are often difficult to use and time consuming. Thus, in this work, theoretical framework for an easy and fast technique was suggested to estimate the PSD from unsaturated hydraulic conductivity data in an undisturbed field soil profile. In this study, unsaturated hydraulic conductivity data were collected and simulated by the variation of soil parameters in the given boundary conditions (Brooks and Corey soil parameters, ${\alpha}_{BC}=1-5L^{-1}$, b = 1 - 10; van Genuchten soil parameters, ${\alpha}_{VG}=0.001-1.0L^{-1}$, m = 0.1 - 0.9). Then, $K_s$ (1.0 cm $h^{-1})$ was used as the fixed input parameter for the simulation of each models. The PSDs were estimated from the collected K(h) data by model simulation. In the simulation of Brooks-Corey parameter, the saturated hydraulic conductivity, $K_s$, played a role of scaling factor for unsaturated hydraulic conductivity, K(h) Changes of parameter b explained the shape of PSD curve of soil intimately, and a ${\alpha}_{BC}$ affected on the sensitivity of PSD curve. In the case of van Genuchten model, $K_s$ and ${\alpha}_{VG}$ played the role of scaling factor for a vertical axis and a horizontal axis, respectively. Parameter m described the shape of PSD curve and K(h) systematically. This study suggests that the new theoretical technique can be applied to the in situ prediction of PSD in undisturbed field soil.

Purification and Biological Characterization of Wild-type and Mutants of a Levan Fructotransferase from Microbacterium sp. AL-210 (Microbacterium sp. A-210이 생성하는 Levan fructotransferase의 정제 및 생물학적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Eun-Young;Jeong, Mi-Suk;Cha, Jae-Ho;Jang, Se-Bok
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.1218-1225
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    • 2009
  • Difractose anhydrides (DFAs) is studied as a sweetener for diabetics because of its structural property. DFAs have four types: DFA I, III, IV (degradation of levan) and V (degradation of inulin). Especially, DFA IV has been shown to enhance the absorption of calcium in experiments using rats. Levan fructotransferase is an enzyme for producing di-d-fructose-2,6':6,2-dianhydride (DFA IV). To identify structural characterization, we purified wild-type and mutants (D63A, D195N and N85S) of levan fructotransferase (LFTase) from Microbacterium sp. AL-210. These proteins were purified to apparent homogeneity by Ni-NTA affinity column, Q-sepharose ion exchange and gel filtration chromatography and detected by SDS-PAGE. They were also analyzed by circular dichroism (CD) measurements, JNET secondary structure prediction, activity measurements at various temperatures, and pH analysis. The optimum pH for the enzyme-catalyzed reaction was pH 7.5 and optimum temperature was observed at $55^{\circ}C$. Along with wild-type LFTase, mutants were analyzed by CD measurement, fluorescence analysis and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). N85S showed less $\alpha$-helix and more $\beta$ strand than others. Also, N85S showed almost the same curve as wild-type in their steady-state fluorescence spectra, whereas mutant D63A and D195N showed higher intensity than wild-type. The amino acid sequence of wild-type LFTase was compared to the sequences of exo-inulinase from Aspergillus awamori, a plant fructan 1-exohydrolase from Cichorium intybus, and Thermotogo maritime (Tm) invertase and showed a high identity with Exo-inulinase from Aspergillus awamori.

Clinical Availability of Serum Procalcitonin in Children with Bacterical Infection (소아 세균감염증에서 혈청 procalcitonin의 임상적 유용성)

  • Noe, Eun-Jung;Lee, So-Yeon;Lee, Kyu-Man;Kim, Kwang-Nam
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.108-113
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : The aim of this study was to identify clinical availability of serum procalcitonin (PCT) compared with C-reactive protein (CRP) in prediction of bacterial infection in children. Methods : A retrospective study was conducted with children who had been admitted to the Department of Pediatrics with bacterial and viral infection between April 2008 and March 2009 and children who were admitted with Juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (JRA) between August 2007 and July 2009. Serum PCT levels were measured using an enzyme-linked fluorescent assay. Results : The study population included 10 patients with bacterial infection (group I), 69 with viral infection (group II), and 35 with JRA (group III). Mean PCT levels were significantly higher in group I than in group II or group III (P<0.05). Mean CRP levels were significantly higher in group I than in group II (P<0.05); however, mean CRP levels were not significantly higher in group I than in group III (P>0.05). Using a cutoff of 0.5 ng/mL for PCT and 8 mg/L for CRP, sensitivity and specificity in distinguishing between group I and the other groups were 60.0% and 92.3% for PCT and 60.0% and 40.1% for CRP, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 42.9% and 96.0% for PCT and 10.0% and 92.6% for CRP, respectively. Conclusion : Measurement of PCT concentrations appears to be more useful than CRP for distinguishing between bacterial infection and non-bacterial diseases in children.