• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predicting situation

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Factors predicting pilots' performance in routine and non-routine situations (정상 상황과 비정상 상황에서 조종사의 수행을 예측하는 요인)

  • Lee, Kyung-Soo;Sohn, Young-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.92-99
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    • 2010
  • This study aimed to provide empirical evidence about expert performance approach in aviation field and the results suggested that the amount of experience(e.g. total flight hour) is necessary but not sufficient index of a pilot's expertise or superior performance. 43 pilots participated and completed a spatial span task and SA (situation awareness) tasks. To explore the factors predicting the performance in routine and non-routine situations, discriminant analysis was conducted. The results of discriminant analysis indicated that different variables are related with the performance in routine and non-routine situation. The factors predicting performance in routine situation were the spatial span scores and total flight hours. On the other hand, the factors predicting performance in non-routine situation were age and the qualification for instrument flying. In real world, total flight time which represents the quantity of experience has been frequently used to predict flight abilities and as an important index of expertise. The results of this study suggest that these kinds of factors have to be used cautiously to predict the performance in abnormal situation.

Expert-Novice Differences in Reading and Predicting Visual Information in Air Traffic Control (항공관제 전문성 수준에 따른 시각정보 판독과 미래정보 예측 차이)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2015
  • Many studies have shown that having perception of spatial information is important for air traffic control officer (ATCO) since it helps them understand the current situation and predict the situation it leads to. However, little or no research has been done to investigate if there is any difference at the levels of expertise in perceiving spatial information and predicting a prospective situation. This study investigates the difference between expert and novice ATCO groups in how accurately each group of ATCO perceive spatial information such as position, altitude, speed, and flying direction, and predicting such information they will encounter shortly. In completing a task to watch the movement of airplanes displayed on the computer monitor as a blip, the participants were asked to predict the position, speed, and the altitude of the aircraft in a minute by marking on the sector map. The results show that the expert group performed better in accuracy and had tendency to overestimate on position and altitude; however, no significant difference was found between the two groups in terms of reading a flying direction. Therefore reading a flying direction may not be a reliable indicator to judge expertise of ATCO. But the expert group shows better predicting performance by perceiving spatial information such as airplane's position and altitude with feeling on time. The study suggests that it is important to enhance perceptive skills in ATCO training in improving their expertise in predicting accuracy traffic situation, preventing from air collision, and improving productivity for more efficient air traffic flow. A further study on the relationship between the perception of spatial information and the sense of time in predicting future information and effectiveness as an independent factor would contribute to providing more insights into expertise of ATCOs.

ANN-based Evaluation Model of Combat Situation to predict the Progress of Simulated Combat Training

  • Yoon, Soungwoong;Lee, Sang-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2017
  • There are lots of combined battlefield elements which complete the war. It looks problematic when collecting and analyzing these elements and then predicting the situation of war. Commander's experience and military power assessment have widely been used to come up with these problems, then simulated combat training program recently supplements the war-game models through recording real-time simulated combat data. Nevertheless, there are challenges to assess winning factors of combat. In this paper, we characterize the combat element (ce) by clustering simulated combat data, and then suggest multi-layered artificial neural network (ANN) model, which can comprehend non-linear, cross-connected effects among ces to assess mission completion degree (MCD). Through our ANN model, we have the chance of analyzing and predicting winning factors. Experimental results show that our ANN model can explain MCDs through networking ces which overperform multiple linear regression model. Moreover, sensitivity analysis of ces will be the basis of predicting combat situation.

An Impact Analysis and Prediction of Disaster on Forest Fire

  • Kim, Youn Su;Lee, Yeong Ju;Chang, In Hong
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.34-40
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to create a model for predicting the number of extinguishment manpower to put out forest fires by taking into account the climate, the situation, and the extent of the damage at the time of the forest fires. Past research has been approached to determine the cause of the forest fire or to predict the occurrence of a forest fire. How to deal with forest fires is also a very important part of how to deal with them, so predicting the number of extinguishment manpower is important. Therefore predicting the number of extinguishment manpower that have been put into the forest fire is something that can be presented as a new perspective. This study presents a model for predicting the number of extinguishment manpower inputs considering the scale of the damage with forest fire on a scale bigger than 0.1 ha as data based on the forest fire annual report(Korea Forest Service; KFS) from 2015 to 2018 using the moderated multiple regression analysis. As a result, weather factors and extinguished time considering the damage show that affect forest fire extinguishment manpower.

An Analysis of the Factors Influencing Smoking Behavior of Korean Female College Students (한국 여자대학생의 흡연행동 원인분석)

  • 홍경의
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.13-34
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    • 2002
  • This study examined smoking behavior of Korean female college students by applying the Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behavior, and tried to uncover the factors influencing smoking behavior. The main findings are as follows: First, the attitude toward smoking behavior and the perceived behavioral control were statistically significant in predicting smoking intention. The smoking intention was also significant in predicting smoking behavior. Thus, in order to promote to stop smoking, smoking prevention education emphasizing to reduce smoking intention, to lower the positive attitude toward smoking behavior and to enhance the capacity for perceived behavioral control seems to be helpful. Second, the smoking intention influenced significantly over the smoking behavior in all situations. But the influences of the attitude toward smoking behavior, the subjective norms, and the perceived behavioral control over the smoking intention varied from not significant in one situation to significant in the other situation. Thus, different prevention programs according to the characteristics of individuals need to be developed. Third, in a path analysis, the grade and the degree of satisfaction with college life had the indirect influence, and the growth place had the direct influence over the attitude toward smoking behavior and smoking intention. Thus the smoking prevention program focusing on the students who are the first grade, less satisfied with college life, and growing up in small cities should be developed.

A Study on Predicting Behavioral Intention of Breastfeeding among Primigravida (계획적 행동이론에 의한 초임 여성의 모유수유 실천의도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • 김지은;박동연
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.331-339
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to examine the predicting factors for the intention of breastfeeding with The Theory of Planned Behavior. The questionnaires were distributed to 131 primigravidas who were in their third trimester of pregnancy in Seoul, Kyonggido, Kyongsangbukdo, and Kyongsnagnamdo. Descriptive statistics, Pearsons Correlation and Multiple Regression were used to analyse the data. The subjects showed strong intention of breastfeeding. The subjects showed favorable attitudes toward breastfeeding. This fact showed significant correlation with the belief that their breastfeeding intention was due to the advantage of breast milk for the infant with regard to allergy prevention, disease protection, contribution to intellectual development, psychological closeness between mother and infant, convenience, cost, and the reduction of breast cancer risk and weight of the mother. No item of outcome evaluation did showed significant correlation with behavioral intension. The subjects were influenced about breastfeeding by their referents such as siblings and friends with breastfeeding experience, their mothers and husbands, and mothers-in-law. Most items of the control beliefs had a significant influence on the intention of breastfeeding. The subjects felt they could not control the situation ie. "when I have to breastfeed in public". However they felt they could control the situation ie. "when I suffer from mastitis", "when I have to cut down on coffee, alcohol, and smoking", "when I have Caesarean section", "when I need to maintain breast condition", and "when the infant hates to suck my nipple". Regression analysis revealed that control beliefs and attitudes toward breastfeeding could predict the behavioral intention of breastfeeding. Control beliefs were the most important factor in predicting behavioral intention. Therefore, nutrition education is needed to enhance the ability to cope with difficult situations while breastfeeding and increase faborable attitudes toward breastfeeding.eding and increase faborable attitudes toward breastfeeding.

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Utilization of Planned Routes and Dead Reckoning Positions to Improve Situation Awareness at Sea

  • Kim, Joo-Sung;Jeong, Jung Sik;Park, Gyei-Kark
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.288-294
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    • 2014
  • Understanding a ship's present position has been one of the most important tasks during a ship's voyage, in both ancient and modern times. Particularly, a ship's dead reckoning (DR) has been used for predicting traffic situations and collision avoidance actions. However, the current system that uses the traditional method of calculating DR employs the received position and speed data only. Therefore, it is not applicable for predicting navigation within the harbor limits, owing to the frequent changes in the ship's course and speed in this region. In this study, planned routes were applied for improving the reliability of the proposed system and predicting the traffic patterns in advance. The proposed method of determining the dead reckoning position (DRP) uses not only the ships' received data but also the navigational patterns and tracking data in harbor limits. The Mercator sailing formulas were used for calculating the ships' DRPs and planned routes. The data on the traffic patterns were collected from the automatic identification system and analyzed using MATLAB. Two randomly chosen ships were analyzed for simulating their tracks and comparing the DR method during the timeframes of the ships' movement. The proposed method of calculating DR, combined with the information on planned routes and DRPs, is expected to contribute towards improving the decision-making abilities of operators.

Soil Stress Analysis Using Discrete Element Method for Plate-Sinkage Tests (DEM 모델을 이용한 평판재하시험의 토양 수직응력 해석)

  • Jang, Gichan;Lee, Soojin;Lee, Kyu-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.230-237
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    • 2015
  • Soil deformation on the off-load ground is significantly affected by soil conditions, such as soil type, water content, and etc. Thus, the soil characteristics should be estimated for predicting vehicle movements on the off-load conditions. The plate-sinkage test, a widely-used experimental test for predicting the wheel-soil interaction, provides the soil characteristic parameters from the relationship between soil stress and plate sinkage. In this study, soil stress under the plate-sinkage situation is calculated by the DEM (Discrete Element Method) model. We developed a virtual soil bin with DEM to obtain the vertical reaction forces under the plate pressing the soil surface. Also parametric studies to investigate effects of DEM model parameters, such as, particle density, Young's modulus, dynamic friction, rolling friction, and adhesion, on the characteristic soil parameters were performed.

A Study on the Storage Reliability Determination Model for One-shot System (일회성 시스템의 저장신뢰도 결정 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Kyu;Kang, Wun-Seok;Kang, Sung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2013
  • Some systems such as missiles and ammunitions are used only one time in combat or emergency situation. Predicting correct storage reliability is very important for those systems which are inspected periodically. Many researches have been done for predicting the storage reliability using generally exponential or Weibull failure distribution. However, recent studies show the hazard functions follow various types of failure distributions. So in this paper, we proposed a generalized model that measures the storage reliability regardless of type of failure distributions. And this model reflects inspection error and failures that might be occurred during periodical check and within storage term as well.

A Design for Medical Information System of Emergency Situation Prediction using Body Signal (생체신호를 이용한 응급상황 예측 의료정보 시스템의 설계)

  • Park, Sun;Kim, Chul Won
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we proposes a emergency medical information system for predicting emergency situation by using the body's vital signs. Main research of existing emergency system has focused on body sensor networks. The problem of these studies have a delay of the emergency first aid since occurring of an emergency situation send a message of emergency situation to user. In the serious situation, patients of these problem can lead to death. To solve this problem, it need to the prediction of emergency situation for doing quickly the First Aid with identify signs of a pre-emergency situations until an emergency occurs. In this paper, the sensor network technology, the security technology, the internet information retrieval techniques, data mining technology, and medical information are studied for the convergence of medical information systems of the prediction of emergency situations.

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