• 제목/요약/키워드: Predictability

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The Influence of the Substituents for the Insecticidal Activity of N' -phenyl-N-methylformamidine Analogues against Two Spotted Spider Mite (Tetranychus urticae) (두 점박이 응애(Tetranychus urticae) 에 대한 N'-phenyl-N-methylformamidine 유도체의 살충활성에 미치는 치환기들의 영향)

  • Lee, Jae-Whang;Choi, Won-Seok;Lee, Dong-Guk;Chung, Kun-Hoe;Ko, Young-Kwan;Kim, Tae-Joon;Sung, Nack-Do
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.319-325
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    • 2010
  • To understand the influences of the substituents ($R_1{\sim}R_4$) on insecticidal activity of N'-phenyl-N-methylformamidine analogues (1~22) against two spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae), comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) model and comparative molecular similarity indices analysis (CoMSIA) model as three dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships (3D-QSARs) model were derived and discussed quantitatively. From the results, the correlativity and predictability ($r^2{_{cv.}}=0.575$ and $r^2{_{ncv.}}=0.945$) of the CoMFA 1 model were higher than those of the rest models. The the CoMFA 1 and CoMSIA 1 model with the sensitivity of the perturbation and the prediction produced ($d_q{^{2'}}/dr^2{_{yy}}=1.071{\sim}1.146$ & $q^2=0.545{\sim}0.626$) by a progressive scrambling analysis were not dependent on chance correlation. The insecticidal activities from the optimized CoMFA 1 model were depend upon the steric field (62.5%), electrostatic field (28.9%), and hydrophobic field (8.6%) of N'-phenyl-N-methylformamidine analogues. Therefore, the inhibitory activities with optimized CoMFA 1 model were dependent upon steric factor. From the contour maps of the optimized models, it is predicted that the structural distinctions that contribute to the insecticidal activity will be able to applied new potent insecticides design.

Three Dimensional Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship on the Fungicidal Activities of New Novel 2-Alkoxyphenyl-3-phenylthioisoindoline-1-one Derivatives Using the Comparative Molecular Field Analyses (CoMFA) Methodology Based on the Different Alignment Approaches (상이한 정렬에 따른 비교 분자장 분석(CoMFA) 방법을 이용한 새로운 2-Alkoxyphenyl-3-phenylthioisoindoline-1-one 유도체들의 살균활성에 관한 3차원적인 정량적 구조와 활성과의 관계)

  • Sung, Nack-Do;Yoon, Tae-Yong;Song, Jong-Hwan;Jung, Hoon-Sung
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.82-88
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    • 2005
  • 3D QSAR studies for the fungicidal activities against resistive phytophthora blight (RPC; 95CC7303) and sensitive phytophthora blight (Phytopthora capsici) (SPC; 95CC7105) by a series of new 2-alkoxyphenyl-3-phenylthioisoindoline-1-one derivatives (X: A=propynyl & B=2-chloropropenyl) were studied using comparative molecular field analyses (CoMFA) methodology. The CoMFA models were generated from the two different alignment, atom based fit (AF) alignment and field fit (FF) alignment. The atom based alignment exhibited a higher statistical results than that of field fit alignment. The best models, A3 and A7 using combination fields of H-bond field, standard field, LUMO and HOMO molecular orbital field as additional descriptors were selected to improve the statistic of the present CoMFA models. The statistical results of the two models showed the best predictability of the fungicidal activities based on the cross-validated value $q^2\;(r^2_{cv.}=RPC:\;0.625\;&\;SPC:\;0.834)$, non cross-validated value $(r^2_{ncv.}=RPC:\;0.894\;&\;SPC:\;0.915)$ and PRESS value (RPC: 0.105 & SPC: 0.103), respectively. Based on the findings, the predictive ability and fitness of the model for SPC was better than that of the model for RPC. The fugicidal activities exhibited a strong correlation with steric $(66.8{\sim}82.8%)$, electrostatic $(10.3{\sim}4.6%)$ and molecular orbital field (SPC: HOMO, 12.6% and RPC: LUMO, 22.9%) factors of the molecules. The novel selective character for fungicidal activity between two fungi depend on the positive charge of ortho, meta-positions on the N-phenyl ring and size of hydrophilicity of a substituents on the S-phenyl ring.

The Analysis for the Regulation related to Chinese Online Game Review -Focused on NHN Chinese Game- (중국 온라인 게임 심의에 관한 규제 분석 -중국 NHN 게임을 중심으로-)

  • Song, Seung-Keun;Kim, Chee-Yong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.11
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to uncover the standard and procedure of the review for the online game to export to China and try to find a plan how to solve a problem such as regulation for the online game imported into China depending on a protective policy for homemade game. The literatures related to the policy of China online game industry and the present condition of the wholistic restriction are reviewed and the standard and procedure of the review of China online game which is veiled was able to find definitely by using the case study on Korean company which was a great success as localization in China. As a result of this study, we found that the key factor on the review standard of China online game is the anti-social personality, such as 'the overthrow of Chinese socialist system', 'the territorial issue as the eviction of Hong Kong or the acknowledgment of Taiwan government', 'independence problem of the minorities', and 'damage to property as national treasure', et cetera. While the review of the homemade game in China takes about a month through just two steps in review process on online game, that of foreign game is required over at least three months through four steps in it. Moreover, it is difficult for foreign games to obtain the license due to total amount regulation for online game by 'General Administration of Press and Publication of the People's the Republic of China'. In the case of the joint-venture company, it is most important to the smooth communication between Korean company and Chinese company in order to overcome these strong regulation for online game review in China. Furthermore, as Chinese company in outward appearance it is need to be positioned absolutely in Chinese marketplace. The definite positioning strategy enables foreign companies to avoid the strong regulation about the foreign game in China. To understand, finally, deeply politics, society, and culture presented in Chinese ethics textbook permits the foreign companies to predict the exact standard of the review for online game. Therefore, this study is concluded with key implications to sustain guidelines on the deliberation for foreign companies which want to export online game to China to improve the predictability and accountableness about the review of the online game in China.

A RESEARCH ON RISK FACTORS OF ADOLESCENT SEXUAL BEHAVIORS (청소년의 성행동 위험요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, In-Seon;Baek, Yeon-Ok;Han, In-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2001
  • The focus of the research was on identifying the risk factors that may result in unprepared intercourse among the adolescent from an ecological systems prospective. A survey questionnaire was conducted from September through December 1999 to 2326 youths, ages from 13-18 years old. After eliminating thirty respondents from Unwed Mother's Home we found that 8.8% of the remaining respondents had experienced sexual intercourse. Of those, 5% of the female and 13.4% of male adolescents has had sexual intercourse, showing 2.7 times more for the male sample population. Broken down to age groups, 3.2% of the thirteen years old group and 19.2% of the eighteen years old group had experienced intercourse, an almost six fold increase in the older age group. To find out the differences between those who had and not had experienced intercourse the group was then divided into two comparative groups by same sex and age variables. Findings from comparative analysis identified five ecological system risk factors among the youth sample that had intercourse;First, individual factor:adolescents who thought less of themselves or didn't consider their potentials, those more exposed other risk behaviors such as drinking, smoking, drugs, runaway and come in contact with pornography, those who thought they knew more about sex and etc. Second, family factor:those who thought family was less important, had less supportive family, higher or lower income family and etc. Third, peer factor:Both groups thought friends were important and had their support. The group with intercourse experience seems to be think that more peers are experiencing other risk behavior. Fourth, school factor:Those in the group who had experienced intercourse seems to think school is less important and with lower academic achievements. Fifth, community factor:There were no statistical significant differences found between the two groups. The overall results from this study implies that if we want to prevent our youths from having unprepared intercourse during adolescence the significance of having meaningful emerging self, family relationship and school experience is important. This study identified the risk factors leading to adolescent sexual intercourse but further research is necessary in finding out about their predictability.

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Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

Study on the Interpretation of the Features Affacting to the N-supplying Capability of Field Soils to Corn in Pennsylvania (Pennsylvania주 옥수수재배지(栽培地) 토양(土壤)의 질소공급능력(窒素供給能力)에 영향(影響)을 미치는 요인분석(要因分析))

  • Hong, Soon-Dal
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.26-37
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    • 1992
  • Fifty-five field experiments were conducted in order to find out some useful indices for the prediction of N-supplying capability(NSC) of soils under cultivation of corn in Pennsylvania over 3 years from 1986. Contents of $NO_3-N$, absorbance at 200 nm of the extract from soil with 0.01M $NaHCO_3$ were identified to be used as indices before planting. Methods for the estimation of organic nitrogen available later in the growing season(KCLA-N, PBBA-N, UV260 nm absorbance of $NaHCO_3$ extract) were not to be used as good indices individually, but when those are combined together with inorganic $NO_3-N$ showed a highly significant correlationship with the NSC. The year of an even distribution of rainfall, 1987, gave the highest significant correlationship between NSC and the indices. For soils of the same texture with slightly different physical properties, combined indices obtained from physico-chemical factors improved the degree of predictability when the grades of soil slope, depth of Ap were considered at the same time. More futher researches such as this need to be done before any conclusive result can be drawn.

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Interpretation of the Umbrella Clause in Investment Treaties (국제투자조약상 포괄적 보호조항(Umbrella Clauses)의 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Jo, Hee-Moon
    • Journal of Arbitration Studies
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.95-126
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    • 2009
  • One of the controversial issues in investor-state investment arbitration is the interpretation of "umbrella clause" that is found in most BIT and FTAs. This treaty clause requires on Contracting State of treaty to observe all investment obligations entered into with foreign investors from the other Contracting State. This clause did not receive in-depth attention until SGS v. Pakistan and SGS v. Philippines cases produced starkly different conclusions on the relations about treaty-based jurisdiction and contract-based jurisdiction. More recent decisions by other arbitral tribunals continue to show different approaches in their interpretation of umbrella clauses. Following the SGS v. Philippines decision, some recent decisions understand that all contracts are covered by umbrella clause, for example, in Siemens A.G. v. Argentina, LG&E Energy Corp. v. Argentina, Sempra Energy Int'l v. Argentina and Enron Corp. V. Argentina. However, other recent decisions have found a different approach that only certain kinds of public contracts are covered by umbrella clauses, for example, in El Paso Energy Int'l Co. v. Argentina, Pan American Energy LLC v. Argentina and CMS Gas Transmission Co. v. Argentina. With relation to the exhaustion of domestic remedies, most of tribunals have the position that the contractual remedy should not affect the jurisdiction of BIT tribunal. Even some tribunals considered that there is no need to exhaust contract remedies before bringing BIT arbitration, provoking suspicion of the validity of sanctity of contract in front of treaty obligation. The decision of the Annulment Committee In CMS case in 2007 was an extraordinarily surprising one and poured oil on the debate. The Committee composed of the three respected international lawyers, Gilbert Guillaume and Nabil Elaraby, both from the ICJ, and professor James Crawford, the Rapportuer of the International Law Commission on the Draft Articles on the Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts, observed that the arbitral tribunal made critical errors of law, however, noting that it has limited power to review and overturn the award. The position of the Committee was a direct attack on ICSID system showing as an internal recognition of ICSID itself that the current system of investor-state arbitration is problematic. States are coming to limit the scope of umbrella clauses. For example, the 2004 U.S. Model BIT detailed definition of the type of contracts for which breach of contract claims may be submitted to arbitration, to increase certainty and predictability. Latin American countries, in particular, Argentina, are feeling collectively victims of these pro-investor interpretations of the ICSID tribunals. In fact, BIT between developed and developing countries are negotiated to protect foreign investment from developing countries. This general characteristic of BIT reflects naturally on the provisions making them extremely protective for foreign investors. Naturally, developing countries seek to interpret restrictively BIT provisions, whereas developed countries try to interpret more expansively. As most of cases arising out of alleged violation of BIT are administered in the ICSID, a forum under the auspices of the World Bank, these Latin American countries have been raising the legitimacy deficit of the ICSID. The Argentine cases have been provoking many legal issues of international law, predicting crisis almost coming in actual investor-state arbitration system. Some Latin American countries, such as Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina, already showed their dissatisfaction with the ICSID system considering withdrawing from it to minimize the eventual investor-state dispute. Thus the disagreement over umbrella clauses in their interpretation is becoming interpreted as an historical reflection on the continued tension between developing and developed countries on foreign investment. There is an academic and political discussion on the possible return of the Calvo Doctrine in Latin America. The paper will comment on these problems related to the interpretation of umbrella clause. The paper analyses ICSID cases involving principally Latin American countries to identify the critical legal issues arising between developing and developed countries. And the paper discusses alternatives in improving actual investor-State investment arbitration; inter alia, the introduction of an appellate system and treaty interpretation rules.

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Development and Evaluation of a Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST) for Hospitalized Patients (입원환자의 영양불량위험 검색도구의 개발 및 평가)

  • Han, Jin-Soon;Lee, Song-Mi;Chung, Hye-Kyung;Ahn, Hong-Seok;Lee, Seung-Min
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2009
  • Malnutrition of hospitalized patients can adversely affect clinical outcomes and cost. Several nutritional screening tools have been developed to identify patients with malnutrition risk. However, many of those possess practical pitfalls of requiring much time and labor to administer and may not be highly applicable to a Korean population. This study sought to develop and evaluate a Nutrition Risk Screening Tool (NRST) which is simple and quick to administer and widely applicable to Korean hospitalized patients with various diseases. The study was also designed to generate a screening tool predictable of various clinical outcomes and to validate it against the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002). Electronic medical records of 424 patients hospitalized at a general hospital in Seoul during a 14-month period were abstracted for anthropometric, medical, biochemical, and clinical outcome variables. The study employed a 4-step process consisting of selecting NRST components, searching a scoring scheme, validating against a reference tool, and confirming clinical outcome predictability. NRST components were selected by stepwise multiple regression analysis of each clinical outcome (i.e., hospitalization period, complication, disease progress, and death) on several readily available patient characteristics. Age and serum levels of albumin, hematocrit (Hct), and total lymphocyte count (TLC) remained in the last model for any of 4 dependent variables were decided as NRST components. Odds ratios of malnutrition risk based on NRS 2002 according to levels of the selected components were utilized to frame a scoring scheme of NRST. A NRST score higher than 3.5 was set as a cut-off score for malnutrition risk based on sensitivity and specificity levels against NRS 2002. Lastly differences in clinical outcomes by patients' NRST results were examined. The results showed that the NRST can significantly predict the in-hospital clinical outcomes. It is concluded that the NRST can be useful to simply and quickly screen patients at high-nutritional risk in relation to prospective clinical outcomes.

Sensitivity Analysis of Meteorology-based Wildfire Risk Indices and Satellite-based Surface Dryness Indices against Wildfire Cases in South Korea (기상기반 산불위험지수와 위성기반 지면건조지수의 우리나라 산불발생에 대한 민감도분석)

  • Kong, Inhak;Kim, Kwangjin;Lee, Yangwon
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2017
  • There are many wildfire risk indices worldwide, but objective comparisons between such various wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices have not been conducted for the wildfire cases in Korea. This paper describes a sensitivity analysis on the wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices for Korea using LDAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) meteorological dataset on a 1.5-km grid and MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite images on a 1-km grid. We analyzed the meteorology-based wildfire risk indices such as the Australian FFDI(forest fire danger index), the Canadian FFMC(fine fuel moisture code), the American HI(Haines index), and the academically presented MNI(modified Nesterov index). Also we examined the satellite-based surface dryness indices such as NDDI(normalized difference drought index) and TVDI(temperature vegetation dryness index). As a result of the comparisons between the six indices regarding 120 wildfire cases with the area damaged over 1ha during the period between January 2013 and May 2017, we found that the FFDI and FFMC showed a good predictability for most wildfire cases but the MNI and TVDI were not suitable for Korea. The NDDI can be used as a proxy parameter for wildfire risk because its average CDF(cumulative distribution function) scores were stably high irrespective of fire size. The indices tested in this paper should be carefully chosen and used in an integrated way so that they can contribute to wildfire forecasting in Korea.

Predictive Value for Vesicoureteral Reflux in Children with Urinary Tract Infection (요로감염 환아에서 방광요관 역류를 예측할 수 있는 인자에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Hyun;Noh, Sung-Hoon;Oh, Jeung-Eun;Kim, Min-Sun;Lee, Dae-Yeol
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The most concerning issue in children with urinary tract infection(UTI) is the probability of underlying genitourinary anomalies and vesicoureteral reflux (VUR), which is frequently associated with renal scarring and eventually end-stage renal disease. Therefore, voiding cystourethrography(VCUG) is usually recommended at the earliest convenient time for children with UTI. However, VCUG is an invasive procedure that requires catheterization and exposure to X-ray. In this study, we aimed to determine the predictability of clinical, laboratory and imaging parameters for VUR in children with UTI. Methods: Data of children with bacteriologically proven UTI who underwent VCUG were evaluated retrospectively for clinical(age, gender, fever), laboratory(leukocytosis, ESR, CRP, pyuria, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine) and imaging(renal ultrasound and DMSA renal scan) findings. First, children with UTI were divided into two groups according to the presence of VUR as non-VUR group and with VUR group, and clinical, laboratory variables were compared between these groups. Second, patients who had VUR were reclassified as low-grade VUR(grade I-II) group and high-grade(grade III-V) VUR group according to grading of VUR, and clinical, laboratory and imaging variables were compared between these groups. Results: Among 410 children with UTI, 137 had VUR and 78 high-grade VUR. Fever, leukocytosis, ESR, CRP, pyuria were associated with VUR. In addition, abnormal findings of ultrasonography and DMSA renal scan were closely related to VUR. However, these clinical and laboratory variable in patients with high grade VUR were not different significantly, compared to those with low-grade VUR group. Conclusion: Fever, leukocytosis, ESR, CRP seems to be potentially useful predictors of VUR in pediatric patients with UTI. In addition, renal ultrasonography and DMSA renal scan findings supported the presence of VUR. Further study of these findings could limit unnecessary VCUG in patients with UTI.

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