• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predict infectious diseases

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Time Series Modeling Pipeline for Urban Behavioral Demand Prediction under Uncertainty (COVID-19 사례를 통한 도시 내 비정상적 수요 예측을 위한 시계열 모형 파이프라인 개발 연구)

  • Minsoo Jin;Dongwoo Lee;Youngrok Kim;Hyunsoo Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.80-92
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    • 2023
  • As cities are becoming densely populated, previously unexpected events such as crimes, accidents, and infectious diseases are bound to affect user demands. With a time-series prediction of demand using information with uncertainty, it is impossible to derive reliable results. In particular, the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020 caused changes in abnormal travel patterns and made it difficult to predict demand for time series. A methodology that accurately predicts demand by detecting and reflecting these changes is, therefore, required. The current study suggests a time series modeling pipeline that automatically detects and predicts abnormal events caused by COVID-19. We expect its wide application in various situations where there is a change in demand due to irregular and abnormal events.

Knowledge based Genetic Algorithm for the Prediction of Peptides binding to HLA alleles common in Koreans (지식기반 유전자알고리즘을 이용한 한국인 빈발 HLA 대립유전자에 대한 결합 펩타이드 예측)

  • Cho, Yeon-Jin;Oh, Heung-Bum;Kim, Hyeon-Cheol
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2012
  • T cells induce immune responses and thereby eliminate infected micro-organisms when peptides from the microbial proteins are bound to HLAs in the host cell surfaces, It is known that the more stable the binding of peptide to HLA is, the stronger the T cell response gets to remove more effectively the source of infection. Accordingly, if peptides (HLA binder) which can be bound stably to a certain HLA are found, those peptieds are utilized to the development of peptide vaccine to prevent infectious diseases or even to cancer. However, HLA is highly polymorphic so that HLA has a large number of alleles with some frequencies even in one population. Therefore, it is very inefficient to find the peptides stably bound to a number of HLAs by testing random possible peptides for all the various alleles frequent in the population. In order to solve this problem, computational methods have recently been developed to predict peptides which are stably bound to a certain HLA. These methods could markedly decrease the number of candidate peptides to be examined by biological experiments. Accordingly, this paper not only introduces a method of machine learning to predict peptides binding to an HLA, but also suggests a new prediction model so called 'knowledge-based genetic algorithm' that has never been tried for HLA binding peptide prediction. Although based on genetic algorithm (GA). it showed more enhanced performance than GA by incorporating expert knowledge in the process of the algorithm. Furthermore, it could extract rules predicting the binding peptide of the HLA alleles common in Koreans.

Diagnostic Significance of the Delta Neutrophil Index and Other Conventional Parameters in Neonatal Bacteremia (신생아 균혈증에서 Delta Neutrophil Index의 진단적 의의)

  • Koh, Il Doo;Jeon, Ihn Soo;Kim, Hwang Min
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: We investigated the effectiveness of the delta neutrophil index (DNI) for the prediction of neonatal bacteremia and compared it to other indices. Methods: A total of 146 pediatric patients, aged less than 31 days, admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Wonju Severance Christian Hospital with fever before or during hospitalization were enrolled in this study. We divided the patients into two groups based on the existence of neonatal bacteremia and performed blood culture tests on both groups. We examined white blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, DNI, platelet count, and C-reactive protein (CRP) test. We used a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate their diagnostic significance. Results: Seventy-seven patients were diagnosed with neonatal bacteremia. The mean gestational age was 38.74 weeks and the mean birth weight was 3.20 kg. The mean gestational age of the control group was 33.34 weeks and the mean birth weight was 2.20 kg. Causative organisms of bacteremia included Staphylococcus aureus (n=22), Staphylococcus epidermidis (n=18), and Streptococcus agalactiae (n=8). Both DNI and CRP were significantly associated with neonatal bacteremia after adjusting for gestational age and birth weight. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for DNI (0.70) was higher than that for CRP (0.68). Conclusions: The DNI can be used to effectively predict neonatal bacteremia. The prediction will be more accurate if DNI is used in conjunction with other indices. In future, it will be useful to compare DNI with other indices and investigate its relationship with prognosis.

Research on Surface Contamination Analysis of Radiology Examination Equipment in Medical Institutions (의료기관 내 영상의학 검사 장비의 표면 오염도 분석 연구)

  • Shin-Woo Lee;Da-eun Kim;Chae-won Mun;Gap-Jung Kim;Sang-Ha Kim;Hye-mi Park;Se-Jong Yoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.171-177
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    • 2024
  • In this study, two general X-ray device, CT, and MRI inspection devices were selected from general hospitals in the Daejeon area and an experiment was conducted to predict the level of infection by measuring the surface contamination of the inspection devices at different times and to use it as basic data for infection prevention. As a result, the surface contamination level by time zone for general X-ray devices and MRI examination devices was in the order of 13H > 8H > 16H, and for CT examination devices, it was 13H > 16H > 8H, which appeared to be influenced by the number of tests. In addition, the surface contamination results for each part of the test device showed that the highest ATP contamination value was found on the stand bucky handle for the general X-ray device, the headrest for the CT examination device, and the operation switch for the MRI examination device, which was closely related to the number of contacts. As a result of comparing before and after disinfection, all devices showed a significant decrease after disinfection. Based on the results of the experiment, it is believed that it can be used as basic data to identify the level of contamination in radiology laboratories and prevent infectious diseases.

Dependence Potential of the Synthetic Cannabinoids JWH-073, JWH-081, and JWH-210: In Vivo and In Vitro Approaches

  • Cha, Hye Jin;Lee, Kwang-Wook;Song, Min-Ji;Hyeon, Yang-Jin;Hwang, Ji-Young;Jang, Choon-Gon;Ahn, Joon-Ik;Jeon, Seol-Hee;Kim, Hyun-Uk;Kim, Young-Hoon;Seong, Won-Keun;Kang, Hoil;Yoo, Han Sang;Jeong, Ho-Sang
    • Biomolecules & Therapeutics
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.363-369
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    • 2014
  • Synthetic cannabinoids (CBs) such as the JWH series have caused social problems concerning their abuse liability. Because the JWH series produces euphoric and hallucinogenic effects, they have been distributed illegally under street names such as "Spice" and "Smoke". Many countries including Korea have started to schedule some of the JWH series compounds as controlled substances, but there are a number of JWH series chemicals that remain uncontrolled by law. In this study, three synthetic CBs with different binding affinities to the $CB_1$ receptor (JWH-073, 081, and 210) and ${\Delta}^9$-tetrahydrocannabinol (${\Delta}^9$-THC) were evaluated for their potential for psychological dependence. The conditioned place preference test (unbiased method) and self-administration test (fixed ratio of 1) using rodents were conducted. $K_i$ values of the three synthetic cannabinoids were calculated as supplementary data using a receptor binding assay and overexpressed $CB_1$ protein membranes to compare dependence potential with $CB_1$ receptor binding affinity. All mice administered JWH-073, 081, or 210 showed significantly increased time spent at unpreferred space in a dose-dependence manner in the conditioned place preference test. In contrast, all tested substances except ${\Delta}^9$-THC showed aversion phenomenon at high doses in the conditioned place preference test. The order of affinity to the $CB_1$ receptor in the receptor binding assay was JWH-210 > JWH-081 >> JWH-073, which was in agreement with the results from the conditioned place preference test. However, no change in self-administration was observed. These findings suggest the possibility to predict dependence potential of synthetic CBs through a receptor binding assay at the screening level.

The Clinical Aspects of Regional Lymphadenitis following BCG Vaccination (BCG 접종 후 국소 림프절염의 임상양상)

  • Bae, Sun Young;Park, Yang Joon;Kim, Jong-Hyun;Oh, Jin Hee;Koh, Dae Kyun;Kang, Jin Han
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2006
  • Purpose : A regional lymphadenitis is the most frequent adverse reaction of BCG. In order to find out developmental factors and establish a strategy of management, we investigated the clinical courses of children with lymphadenitis following BCG on the aspect of BCG strains, suppurative rates according to the sizes of lymph node and the clinical difference with or without treatment. Methods : From January 1997 to June 2004, 52 children less than 24 month-age-old diagnosed as BCG lymphadenitis in Department of Pediatrics, St. Vincent's Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea were enrolled. The type of BCG strain, place of vaccination, location and size of lymphadenitis were assessed with medical records, retrospectively. Finally, we analysed the correlations between BCG strains or the sizes of lymph node and natural remission or suppuration. Results : The first detected mean age of BCG lymphadenitis was 5.5 month-age. The larger of the measurement was at the first visiting, the younger of age that was first presented. The most frequent location was the same sided axillary region of BCG injection. Among 52 subjects, 46 cases(88.5%) were vaccinated with intradermal Pastuer strain, and only 5 cases(9.6%) were done with percutaneous multipunctured Tokyo strain. Twenty eight cases(53.8%) were regressed naturally, otherwise 24 cases(46.2%) were suppurated. The larger those were sized, the higher freqeuncies those were suppurated on, significantly. Treatment with medications could not prevent the suppuration and could not shorten the healing periods. Conclusion : We predict that there are differences between the occurrent rate of BCG lymphadenitis and BCG strains or methods. Treatment with medication is not recommended owing to its ineffectiveness. Especially, in case of non-suppurative lymphadenitis should be onlyless influence on the tuberculin skin test, cause less adverse reactions, and is inexpensive. observed without treatment, because it could be regressed naturally. An ideal BCG makes a scar, We should make an effort to choose the best BCG strain that can fulfill such requirements.

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Antibiotics Susceptability of Streptococcus pneumoniae Isolated from Pharynx in Healthy Korean Children and Choice of Proper Empirical Oral Antibiotics Using Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics Model (국내의 소아에서 분리된 폐구균의 항생제 감수성 양상 및 약력동학 모델을 이용한 적절한 항생제의 선택)

  • Paik, Ji Yeun;Choi, Jae Hong;Cho, Eun Young;Oh, Chi Eun;Lee, Jina;Choi, Eun Hwa;Lee, Hoan Jong
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2011
  • Purpose : Pneumococcus is one of the most important causes of invasive infection through the childhood period. In January 2008, the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) published revised penicillin breakpoints for Streptococcus pneumoniae and penicillin susceptibility rates of S. pneumoniae increased in Korea. This study was performed to determine the probability of oral amoxicillin for the empirical treatment achieving bactericidal exposure against pneumococcus using pharmacodynamics model. Methods : Twenty-three isolates of pneumococci were subjected to determine minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) for ${\beta}$-lactams and macrolide. For the ${\beta}$-lactams, exposure of fT >MIC (time that free drug concentrations remain above the MIC) for 50% of the administration interval have determined the probability of target attainment (PTA), and regimens that had a PTA >90% were considered optimal. An analysis was performed by applying MIC of 23 isolates to a 5000-patient Monte Carlo simulation model. Results : Among 23 isolates from healthy children, 7 (30.4%) isolates were MIC ${\leq}$1.0 ${\mu}g$/mL and 19 (82.6%) were MIC ${\leq}$2 ${\mu}g$/mL for amoxicillin. Amoxicillin 40 mg/kg/day achieved PTA >90% at MIC ${\leq}$1.0 ${\mu}g$/mL but PTA decreased to 52% at MIC 2 ${\mu}g$/mL, whereas amoxicillin 90 mg/kg/day can predict 97% of PTA at MIC 2 ${\mu}g$/mL. Overall, oral amoxicillin 90 mg/ kg/day for the empirical treatment against pneumococcus can expect more successful response in Korean children. Conclusion : Considering the resistantce pattern of pneumococci in Korean children, we estimate that oral amoxicillin 90 mg/kg/day will provide a pharmacodynamic advantage for the empirical treatment against pneumococcus. And low dose amoxicillin or macrolide are expected to have higher chance of treatment failure than high dose oral amoxicillin.