• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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• pp.268-272
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• 2010

The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.162-175
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• 2021

Recently, due to global warming, the average temperature of the earth has risen, and the glaciers in the Antarctic and Arctic melt, leading to a rise in sea level, which is accompanied by powerful natural disasters such as strong typhoons and tsunamis around the world. Accordingly, a precipitation in summer in Korea also increased, and changes in the form of precipitation were showed with the increase. Compared to the past, the frequency of localized heavy rain is increasing, and the damage from flooding and flooding is increasing day by day. In this study, based on the precipitation data measured in hours from May to September from 2016 to 2021 according to the change in the precipitation form, according to the nature of the torrential rain investigated the change in the summer precipitation form. In addition, the trend of localized heavy rain from 2016 to 2021 was confirmed by classifying them into two types: localized heavy rains caused by cyclones and weather front, and by typhoons and large-scale cyclones. Through this, the change in precipitation due to the climate crisis should not be viewed as a single phenomenon, it should be reflected and discussed on our life focused on scientific and technological development, and it should be used as a stepping stone for realizing a humanistic.

• Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.86-94
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• 2023

Climate change is more rapid in the Arctic than elsewhere in the world, and increased precipitation and warming are expected cause changes in biogeochemical processes due to altered microbial communities and activities. It is crucial to investigate microbial responses to climate change to understand changes in carbon and nitrogen dynamics. We investigated the effects of increased temperature and precipitation on microbial biomass and community structure in dry tundra using two depths of soil samples (organic and mineral layers) under four treatments (control, warming, increased precipitation, and warming with increased precipitation) during the growing season (June-September) in Cambridge Bay, Canada (69°N, 105°W). A phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis method was applied to detect active microorganisms and distinguish major functional groups (e.g., fungi and bacteria) with different roles in organic matter decomposition. The soil layers featured different biomass and community structure; ratios of fungal/bacterial and gram-positive/-negative bacteria were higher in the mineral layer, possibly connected to low substrate quality. Increased temperature and precipitation had no effect in either layer, possibly due to the relatively short treatment period (seven years) or the ecosystem type. Mostly, sampling times did not affect PLFAs in the organic layer, but June mineral soil samples showed higher contents of total PLFAs and PLFA biomarkers for bacteria and fungi than those in other months. Despite the lack of response found in this investigation, long-term monitoring of these communities should be maintained because of the slow response times of vegetation and other parameters in high-Arctic ecosystems.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.725-740
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• 2008

In this study a multi-site daily precipitation generator which generates the precipitation with similar spatial correlation, and at the same time, with conserving statistical properties of the observed data is developed. The proposed generator is intended to be a tool for down-scaling the data obtained from GCMs or RCMs into local scales. The occurrences of precipitation are simultaneously modeled in multi-sites by 2-parameter first-order Markov chain using random variables of spatially correlated while temporally independent, and then, the amount of precipitation is simulated by 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function that resolves the issue of maintaining intermittence of precipitation field. This approach is applied to the Nakdong river basin and the observed data are daily precipitation data of 19 locations. The results show that spatial correlations of precipitation series are relatively well simulated and statistical properties of observed precipitation series are simulated properly.

• 한국제4기학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.9-27
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• 2006

이 연구는 동아시아 (중국, 한국, 그리고 일본) 여름몬순과 그 변동성을 MME (multi-model ensemble)을 이용하여 IPCC AR4 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report) 실험의22개 접합 기후모델 결과 자료로 분석하였다. 결과자료들은 사용 가능한 모든 모델의 평균값을 이용하였다. 여름 몬순 기간 동안 최대 강수를 가지는 연주기는 모델에 의해 모의되었으나 장마(Meiyu-Changma-Baiu) 강수밴드의 이동(북쪽)과 연관되어 7월에 나타나는 최소값은 모의하지 못했다. MME 강수 패턴은 북태평양아열대 고기압과 장마전선대의 위치와 연관된 강수의 공간적 분포를 잘 나타내었다. 그러나 중국, 한반도, 그리고 일본의 동해와 인근 해역의 강수는 과소 예측되었다. 마지막으로 $CO_2$ 농도 배증시나리오의 복사 강제에 대한 미래예측을 분석하였다. MME는 $CO_2$ 농도가 배증될 때 동아시아지역에서 강수는 평균 7.8%로 나타났고, $5{\sim}10%$의 변화폭을 보였다. 그러나 이러한 강수의 증가는 통계적으로 한반도와 일본, 그리고 인근 북중국 지역에서만 중요한 의미를 가진다. 강수 예측에서 나타난 변화는 아열대 고기압의 강도 변화에 비례하는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 봄에서 초가을까지 여름 몬순의 지속기간이 길어짐을 확인하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.234-234
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• 2015

The global patterns of annual and extreme precipitation are projected to be altered by climate change. There are various weather systems which bring precipitation (e.g. tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone, etc.). It is possible in some regions that multiple weather systems affect the changes of precipitation. However, previous studies have assessed only the changes of precipitation associated with individual weather systems. The relative contributions of the weather systems to the changes of precipitation have not been quantified yet. Also, the changes of the relative importance of weather systems have not been assessed. This study present the quantitative estimates of 1) the relative contributions of weather systems (tropical cyclone (TC), extratropical cyclone (ExC), and "others") to the future changes of annual and extreme precipitation and 2) the changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system in annual and extreme precipitation based on CMIP5 generation GCM outputs. Weather systems are objectively detected from twelve GCM outputs and six models are selected for further analysis considering the reproducibility of weather systems. In general, the weather system which is dominant in terms of producing precipitation in the present climate contributes the most to the changes of annual and extreme precipitation in each region. However, there are exceptions for the tendency. In East Asia, "others", which ranks the second in the proportion of annual precipitation in present climate, has the largest contribution to the increase of annual precipitation. It was found that the increase of the "others" annual precipitation in East Asia is mainly explained by the changes of that in summer season (JJA), most of which can be regarded as the summer monsoon precipitation. In Southeast Asia, "others" precipitation, the second dominant system in the present climate, has the largest contribution to the changes of very heavy precipitation (>99.9 percentile daily precipitation of historical period). Notable changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system are found mainly in subtropics, which can be regarded as the "hotspot" of the precipitation regime shift.

• 대기
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.257-271
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• 2011

The aim of this study is to examine weather modification by urbanization and human activities. The characteristics of the urban heat island (UHI) and precipitation in Seoul metropolitan area of Korea are investigated to demonstrate that cities can change or modify local and nearby weather and climate, and to confirm that cities can initiate convection, change the behavior of convective precipitation, and enhance downstream precipitation. The data used in this study are surface meteorological station data observed in Seoul and its nearby 5 cities for the period of 1960 to 2009, and 162 Automatic Weather System stations data observed in the Seoul metropolitan area from 1998 to 2009. Air temperature and precipitation amount tend to increase with time, and relative humidity decreases because of urbanization. Similar to previous studies for other cities, the average maximum UHI is weakest in summer and is strong in autumn and winter, and the maximum UHI intensity is more frequently observed in the nighttime than in the daytime, decreases with increasing wind speed, and is enhanced for clear skies. Relatively warm regions extend in the east-west direction and relatively cold regions are located near the northern and southern mountains inside Seoul. The satellite cities in the outskirts of Seoul have been rapidly built up in recent years, thus exhibiting increases in near-surface air temperature. The yearly precipitation amount during the last 50 years is increased with time but rainy days are decreased. The heavy rainfall events of more than $20mm\;hr^{-1}$ increases with time. The substantial changes observed in precipitation in Seoul seem to be linked with the accelerated increase in the urban sprawl in recent decades which in turn has induced an intensification of the UHI effect and enhanced downstream precipitation. We also found that the frequency of intense rain showers has increased in Seoul metropolitan area.

• 대기
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.229-241
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• 2011

The continuous urbanizations by a rapid economic growth and a steady increase in population are expected to have a possible impact on meteorology in the downwind region. Long-term (1972~2007) trends of precipitation have been examined in the mid-Korean peninsula for the westerly condition only, along with the sensitivity simulations for a golden day (11 February 2009). During the long-term period, both precipitation amount (PA) and frequency (PF) in the downwind region (Chuncheon, Wonju, Hongcheon) of urban area significantly increased for the westerly and light precipitation ($PA{\leq}1mm\;d^{-1}$) cases, whereas PA and PF in the mountainous region (Daegwallyeong) decreased. The enhancement ratio of PA and PF for the downwind region vs. urban region remarkably increased, which implies a possible urbanization effect on downwind precipitation. In addition, the WRF simulation applied for one golden day demonstrates enhanced updraft and its associated convergence in the downwind area (about 60 km), leading to an increase in the cloud mixing ratio. The sensitivity experiments with the change in surface roughness demonstrates a slight increase in cloud water mixing ratio but a negligible effect on precipitation in the upwind region, whereas those with the change in heat source represents the distinctive convergence and its associated updraft in the downwind region but a decrease in liquid water, which may be attributable to the evaporation of cloud droplet by atmospheric heating induced by an increase in an anthropogenic heat. In spite of limitations in the observation-based analysis and one-day simulation, the current result could provide an evidence of the effect of urbanization on the light precipitation in the downwind region.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.111-121
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• 2004

For the long-term strategic water resources planning, forecasting the future streamflow change is important to meet the demand of a growing society. The streamflow variation to the decade-long precipitation was investigated for the two major stage gauging stations in Korea. Precipitation and runoff characteristics have been analyzed at Yongwol stream stage in the Han River as well as Sutong stream stage in the Kum River for the future water resources management strategies. Monte Carlo method has been applied to estimate the future precipitation and runoff. Based on the trend line of 10-year moving average of runoff depth for the historical runoff records, the relation between runoff and the time variation was examined in more detail using regression analysis. This study showed that the surface flows have been significantly decreased while precipitation has been stable in these basins. Decreasing in runoff reflects the regional watershed characteristics such as forest cover changes. The findings of this study could contribute to the planning and development for the efficient water resources utilization.

• 한국재료학회지
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• 제31권11호
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• pp.642-648
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• 2021

The precipitation effect of Al-6%Si-0.4%Mg-0.9%Cu-(Ti) alloy (in wt.%) after various heat treatments was studied using a laser flash device (LFA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Solid solution treatment was performed at 535 ℃ for 6 h, followed by water cooling, and samples were artificially aged in air at 180 ℃ and 220 ℃ for 5 h. The titanium-free alloy Al-6%Si-0.4%Mg-0.9%Cu showed higher thermal diffusivity than did the Al-6%Si-0.4%Mg-0.9%Cu-0.2%Ti alloy over the entire temperature range. In the temperature ranges below 200 ℃ and above 300 ℃, the value of thermal diffusivity decreased with increasing temperature. As the sample temperature increased between 200 ℃ and 400 ℃, phase precipitation occurred. From the results of DSC analysis, the temperature dependence of the change in thermal diffusivity in the temperature range between 200 ℃ and 400 ℃ was strongly influenced by the precipitation of θ'-Al₂Cu, β'-Mg₂Si, and Si phases. The most important factor in the temperature dependence of thermal diffusivity was Si precipitation.