• Title/Summary/Keyword: Power demand prediction

Search Result 112, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

전기자동차 운행을 위한 태양광발전소 수요 예측 (Prediction of Demand for Photovoltaic Power Plants for Electric Vehicle Operation)

  • 최회균
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
    • /
    • 제40권4호
    • /
    • pp.35-44
    • /
    • 2020
  • Currently, various policies regarding ecofriendly vehicles are being proposed to reduce carbon emissions. In this study, the required areas for charging electric vehicle (EV) batteries using electricity produced by photovoltaic (PV) power plants were estimated. First, approximately 2.4 million battery EVs, which represented 10% of the total number of vehicles, consume approximately 404 GWh. Second, the power required for charging batteries is approximately 0.3 GW, and the site area of the PV power plant is 4.62 ㎢, which accounts for 0.005% of the national territory. Third, from the available sites of buildings based on the region, Jeju alone consumes approximately 0.2%, while the rest of the region requires approximately 0.1%. Fourth, Seoul, which has the smallest available area of mountains and farmlands, utilizes 0.34% of the site for PV power plants, while the other parts of the region use less than 0.1%. The results of this study confirmed that the area of the PV power plant site for producing battery-charging power generated through the supply of EVs is very small. Therefore, it is desirable to analyze and implement more specific plans, such as efficient land use, forest damage minimization, and safe maintenance, to expand renewable energy, including PV power.

Hourly Steel Industry Energy Consumption Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms

  • Sathishkumar, VE;Lee, Myeong-Bae;Lim, Jong-Hyun;Shin, Chang-Sun;Park, Chang-Woo;Cho, Yong Yun
    • 한국정보처리학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국정보처리학회 2019년도 추계학술발표대회
    • /
    • pp.585-588
    • /
    • 2019
  • Predictions of Energy Consumption for Industries gain an important place in energy management and control system, as there are dynamic and seasonal changes in the demand and supply of energy. This paper presents and discusses the predictive models for energy consumption of the steel industry. Data used includes lagging and leading current reactive power, lagging and leading current power factor, carbon dioxide (tCO2) emission and load type. In the test set, four statistical models are trained and evaluated: (a) Linear regression (LR), (b) Support Vector Machine with radial kernel (SVM RBF), (c) Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), (d) random forest (RF). Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used to measure the prediction efficiency of regression designs. When using all the predictors, the best model RF can provide RMSE value 7.33 in the test set.

AMR 데이터에서의 전력 부하 패턴 분류 (Power Load Pattern Classification from AMR Data)

  • ;박진형;이헌규;신진호;류근호
    • 한국정보처리학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국정보처리학회 2008년도 춘계학술발표대회
    • /
    • pp.231-234
    • /
    • 2008
  • Currently an automated methodology based on data mining techniques is presented for the prediction of customer load patterns in load demand data. The main aim of our work is to forecast customers' contract information from capacity of daily power consumption patterns. According to the result, we try to evaluate the contract information's suitability. The proposed our approach consists of three stages: (i) data preprocessing: noise or outlier is detected and removed (ii) cluster analysis: SOMs clustering is used to create load patterns and the representative load profiles and (iii) classification: we applied the K-NNs classifier in order to predict the customers' contract information base on power consumption patterns. According to the our proposed methodology, power load measured from AMR(automatic meter reading) system, as well as customer indexes, were used as inputs. The output was the classification of representative load profiles (or classes). Lastly, in order to evaluate KNN classification technique, the proposed methodology was applied on a set of high voltage customers of the Korea power system and the results of our experiments was presented.

Improved ensemble machine learning framework for seismic fragility analysis of concrete shear wall system

  • Sangwoo Lee;Shinyoung Kwag;Bu-seog Ju
    • Computers and Concrete
    • /
    • 제32권3호
    • /
    • pp.313-326
    • /
    • 2023
  • The seismic safety of the shear wall structure can be assessed through seismic fragility analysis, which requires high computational costs in estimating seismic demands. Accordingly, machine learning methods have been applied to such fragility analyses in recent years to reduce the numerical analysis cost, but it still remains a challenging task. Therefore, this study uses the ensemble machine learning method to present an improved framework for developing a more accurate seismic demand model than the existing ones. To this end, a rank-based selection method that enables determining an excellent model among several single machine learning models is presented. In addition, an index that can evaluate the degree of overfitting/underfitting of each model for the selection of an excellent single model is suggested. Furthermore, based on the selected single machine learning model, we propose a method to derive a more accurate ensemble model based on the bagging method. As a result, the seismic demand model for which the proposed framework is applied shows about 3-17% better prediction performance than the existing single machine learning models. Finally, the seismic fragility obtained from the proposed framework shows better accuracy than the existing fragility methods.

부하예측 및 태양광 발전예측을 통한 ESS 운영방안(Guide-line) 연구 (Through load prediction and solar power generation prediction ESS operation plan(Guide-line) study)

  • 이기현;곽경일;채우리;고진덕;이주연
    • 디지털융복합연구
    • /
    • 제18권12호
    • /
    • pp.267-278
    • /
    • 2020
  • 에너지 패러다임이 격변하는 시점에서 ESS는 전력부족 및 전력수요관리의 해소와 재생에너지의 증진에 필수적인 요건이다. 이에 본 논문에서는 부하 및 태양광 발전 예측량을 통하여 비용효과적인 ESS Peak-Shaving 운영방안을 제안한다. ESS 운영방안을 위해 통계적 척도인 RMS을 통해 부하 및 태양광 발전 예측하였으며 예측된 부하 및 태양광 발전량을 통해 한 시간 단위의 목표 부하 절감량 Guide-line을 설정하였다. 대상 수용가의 1년 실데이터를 활용한 부하 및 태양광 발전 예측 시뮬레이션으로 2019년 5월 6일 ~ 10일의 부하 및 태양광 발전량을 예측 하였으며 시간별 Guide-line을 설정하였다. 부하 예측 평균오차율은 7.12%였으며, 태양광 발전량 예측 평균오차율은 10.57%를 나타냈다. ESS 운영방안을 통한 시간별 Guide-line 제시를 통해 수용가의 Peak-shaving 최대화에 기여하였음을 확인하였다. 본 논문의 결과를 통해 태양광과 연계하여 화석에너지로 발생하는 환경적인 영향을 최소화하며 신재생에너지를 최대 활용하여 에너지 문제를 줄일 수 있다고 기대한다.

80μW/MHz 0.68V Ultra Low-Power Variation-Tolerant Superscalar Dual-Core Application Processor

  • Kwon, Youngsu;Lee, Jae-Jin;Shin, Kyoung-Seon;Han, Jin-Ho;Byun, Kyung-Jin;Eum, Nak-Woong
    • IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
    • /
    • 제4권2호
    • /
    • pp.71-77
    • /
    • 2015
  • Upcoming ground-breaking applications for always-on tiny interconnected devices steadily demand two-fold features of processor cores: aggressively low power consumption and enhanced performance. We propose implementation of a novel superscalar low-power processor core with a low supply voltage. The core implements intra-core low-power microarchitecture with minimal performance degradation in instruction fetch, branch prediction, scheduling, and execution units. The inter-core lockstep not only detects malfunctions during low-voltage operation but also carries out software-based recovery. The chip incorporates a pair of cores, high-speed memory, and peripheral interfaces to be implemented with a 65nm node. The processor core consumes only 24mW at 350MHz and 0.68V, resulting in power efficiency of $80{\mu}W/MHz$. The operating frequency of the core reaches 850MHz at 1.2V.

교육기관 지능형 수배전반의 구성방식과 현황분석 (Construction form and status analysis of intelligent type switching board of educational institution)

  • 최인호
    • 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국조명전기설비학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.393-396
    • /
    • 2007
  • Recently one level higher intelligent switching board than established one by the application of intelligent building and digital system are being constructed. Therefore facility's high efficiency, high degree satisfaction, miniaturaization, standardization through application of communication technology and monitoring and controlling by computer system utilized by web-basis power control system and electric IT are practiced. Especially network must be constructed through unified IBS server that monitors every educational institute's switching boards in real time control system. And I intend to create methods to save energy and raise electricity quality by power demand prediction and remote-controled management and operation. In this thesis I intend to suggest measures of forming unified system through researching educational institute's ways of constructing switching board and status analysis and overcoming technical difficulties in user's side and saving and maintenance expense.

  • PDF

스털링엔진 태양열 발전시스템의 성능예측(집열기.수열기 및 엔진.발전기 시스템의 조화) (Performance Prediction of a Solar Power System with Stirling Engine (Matching Collector/Receiver with Engine/Generator Systems))

  • 배명환;장형성
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 추계학술대회논문집B
    • /
    • pp.794-799
    • /
    • 2001
  • The simulation analyses of a solar power system with monolithic concentrator by using a stirling engine are carried out to predict the system performance in four test sites. The site has different intensities and distributions of direct solar radiation respectively. Seoul, Pusan and Cheju in Korea, and Naha in Japan are selected as test sites. To accomplish the same demand of a 25 kW output that the power level of a system has, it needs to take the matching of collector/receiver with engine/generator systems. In such a case, also, the size of the collector is sometimes adjusted. In this study, the diameter of the collector is decided by using the solar radiation of design point, which is defined as the sum of average and standard deviation $\sigma$ of maximum direct solar radiation distribution for a day during a year in the respective test site. It is found that the average power output during the system operating time in the case of slope error ${\sigma}_s=2.5$ is within the range of 9 to 13 kW.

  • PDF

8 GHz 대역에서의 마이크로셀용 전파전파 예측 모델 개발 (Development of Microcellular Radio Propagation Prediction Model in the 8 GHz Bands)

  • 송기홍
    • 한국전자파학회논문지
    • /
    • 제17권12호
    • /
    • pp.1212-1223
    • /
    • 2006
  • 마이크로웨이브 대역은 무선 서비스의 수요가 많은 대역이지만 주로 장거리 고정 통신용으로 이용되어 전파 모델에 대한 연구가 VHF/UHF 대역보다 적게 이루어졌으나, 최근 마이크로웨이브 대역을 이용한 이동 통신 서비스가 증가됨에 따라 보다 정확성 있는 전파 예측 모델의 개발이 요구되어 왔다. 이동 전파 환경에서 신뢰성있는 전파 예측 모델을 개발하기 위해서는 다양한 전파 환경에서 신호의 반사, 회절 및 산란에 따른 전파 특성에 대한 측정 및 분석이 필요하다. 제시된 8 GHz 대역용 전파 예측 모델은 가시거리 영역과 비가시거리 영역에 맞는 모델을 구분하여 개발된다. 가시거리 영역용 예측 모델은 직접파, 지면 반사파 및 도로 양쪽 건물 반사파에 의한 해석적 결과에 측정된 경로 손실 지수를 적용하여 신호 세기를 예측하고, 비가시거리 영역용 예측 모델은 회절 후 신호 변화 현상에 대한 분석 결과를 이용하여 수신 전력을 예측한다.

시간단위 전력사용량 시계열 패턴의 군집 및 분류분석 (Clustering and classification to characterize daily electricity demand)

  • 박다인;윤상후
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • 제28권2호
    • /
    • pp.395-406
    • /
    • 2017
  • 전력 공급 시스템의 효율적인 운영을 위해 전력수요예측은 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 군집분석과 분류분석을 이용하여 일 단위 시간별 전력수요량 시계열 패턴의 유형을 살펴보고자 한다. 전력거래소에서 수집된 2008년 1월 1일부터 2012년 12월 31일까지의 일 단위 시간별 전력수요량 데이터를 추세성분, 계절성분, 오차 성분으로 구성된 시계열 자료로 변환하여 사용하였다. 추세성분을 제거한 시계열 자료의 패턴을 구분하기 위한 군집 분석방법은 k-평균 군집분석 (k-means), 가우시안혼합모델 혼합 모델 군집분석 (Gaussian mixture model), 함수적 군집분석 (functional clustering)을 고려하였다. 주성분분석을 통해 24시간 자료를 2개의 요인로 축소한 후 k-평균 군집분석과 가우시안 혼합 모델, 함수적 군집분석을 수행하였다. 군집분석 결과를 토대로 2008년부터 2011년까지 총 4년간 데이터를 4가지 분류분석방법인 의사결정나무, RF (random forest), Naive bayes, SVM (support vector machine)을 통해 훈련시켜 2012년 군집을 예측하였다. 분석 결과 가우시안 혼합 분포기반 군집분석과 RF를 이용한 군집예측 결과의 성능이 가장 우수하였다.