• Title/Summary/Keyword: Portfolio analysis

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Evaluating Economic Feasibility of Solar Power Generation Under the RPS System Using the Real Option Pricing Method: Comparison Between Regulated and Non-regulated Power Providers (실물옵션을 활용한 RPS 실시에 따른 태양광 발전의 경제성 평가: 공급의무 발전사와 일반 발전사와의 비교)

  • Kim, Eun-Man;Kim, Myung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.690-700
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    • 2013
  • This study reviewed how the changes of the government policy on solar power generation projects affected the annual mandatory quotas of the regulated power providers under the RPS (renewable portfolio standard) system and analysed economic feasibility of the investment for meeting their quotas as compared to the case of non-regulated power providers. The analysis results showed that under the discount rate of 7.5%, which was used for the annual national electricity plans for the recent years, both the regulated and non-regulated power providers achieved economic feasibility under both the NPV (net present value) method and the real option pricing method. It was also shown that higher profitability was attained by non-regulated power providers than by their regulated counterparts, which can be attributable to the fact that regulated providers are required to out-source 50% of the total quota. The results of this study are considered to be useful for establishing a meaningful mid term or long term strategy for the future of solar power generation linked to the current RPS system.

Foreign Investors' Abnormal Trading Behavior in the Time of COVID-19

  • KHANTHAVIT, Anya
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.9
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the behavior of foreign investors in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) in the time of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as to whether trading is abnormal, what strategy is followed, whether herd behavior is present, and whether the actions destabilize the market. Foreign investors' trading behavior is measured by net buying volume divided by market capitalization, whereas the stock market behavior is measured by logged return on the SET index portfolio. The data are daily from Tuesday, August 28, 2018, to Monday, May 18, 2020. The study extends the conditional-regression model in an event-study framework and extracts the unobserved abnormal trading behavior using the Kalman filtering technique. It then applies vector autoregressions and impulse responses to test for the investors' chosen strategy, herd behavior, and market destabilization. The results show that foreign investors' abnormal trading volume is negative and significant. An analysis of the abnormal trading volume with stock returns reveals that foreign investors are not positive-feedback investors, but rather, they self-herd. Although foreign investors' abnormal trading does not destabilize the market, it induces stock-return volatility of a similar size to normal trade. The methodology is new; the findings are useful for researchers, local authorities, and investors.

Can the Skewed Student-t Distribution Assumption Provide Accurate Estimates of Value-at-Risk?

  • Kang, Sang-Hoon;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.153-186
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    • 2007
  • It is well known that the distributional properties of financial asset returns exhibit fatter-tails and skewer-mean than the assumption of normal distribution. The correct assumption of return distribution might improve the estimated performance of the Value-at-Risk(VaR) models in financial markets. In this paper, we estimate and compare the VaR performance using the RiskMetrics, GARCH and FIGARCH models based on the normal and skewed-Student-t distributions in two daily returns of the Korean Composite Stock Index(KOSPI) and Korean Won-US Dollar(KRW-USD) exchange rate. We also perform the expected shortfall to assess the size of expected loss in terms of the estimation of the empirical failure rate. From the results of empirical VaR analysis, it is found that the presence of long memory in the volatility of sample returns is not an important in estimating an accurate VaR performance. However, it is more important to consider a model with skewed-Student-t distribution innovation in determining better VaR. In short, the appropriate assumption of return distribution provides more accurate VaR models for the portfolio managers and investors.

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The Effect of Lending Structure Concentration on Credit Risk: The Evidence of Vietnamese Commercial Banks

  • LE, Thi Thu Diem;DIEP, Thanh Tung
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 2020
  • This paper examines whether lending structure can lower credit risk by employing econometric techniques of panel data for the Vietnamese banking system at the bank level used by economic sectors from 2011 to 2016. New light is being shed on assessing the impact of each industry's debt outstanding on credit risk. Adopting findings from previous studies, we assess credit risk from two different sources, including loan loss provision and non-performing loan. Moreover, we also focus on observing lending structure in many different aspects, from concentrative levels to the short-term and long-term stability levels of lending structure. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator was applied to analyze the relationship between concentration and banking risks. In general, the results show that lending concentration may decrease credit risk. It is interesting to observe that the Vietnamese commercial bank lending portfolios have, on average, higher levels of diversity across different sectors. In particular, the increase in hotel and restaurant lending contributes to decrease credit risk while the lending portfolios of banks in agriculture, electricity, gas and water increase credit risk. This study suggests the need for further analysis and research about portfolio risks in lending activities for maintaining efficiency and stability in the commercial banking system.

Brain Preference and Management : An Exploratory Reasoning from the Founders of Samsung and Hyundai Group, Lee and Chung (뇌활용성향과 기업경영 : 이병철회장과 정주영회장을 통한 탐험적 추론)

  • Lee Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.105-128
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    • 2005
  • The Purpose of the current study is to identify the differences between Samsung and Hyundai Group and the causes why the differences occurred. The study focuses on the founders of the two group as a main source of the differences, especially brain preference of the two founders. Two steps were employed to perform the study. Firstly, the two founders' characteristics were analyzed by using archival research. It was implicitly hypothesized that Group founders' characteristics explained the differences of the two Groups. It was found that the founder of Samsung Group, the late president Lee emphasized rationality, analysis, and cause/effect relationship and low risk taking, suggesting that he had left-brain preference. In contrast. the late president Chung, the founder of Hyundai Group, emphasized intuition, wholeness, contextual meaning, and risk taking, showing that he had right-brain preference. Secondly, a comparison between the two groups was performed in terms of business and financial risk in corporate portfolio, and management system. It was found that Hyundai Group was pursuing higher risk than Samsung Group. And it was observed that Samsung Group put more emphasis on formality in decision making and systematic control, and less emphasis on risk taking than Hyundai Group. From the two step research relationship between brian preference and management was reasoned. Research implications and limitations were discussed at the end of the study.

Research on Value Creativity of Taiwan's Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

  • Tien, Shiaw-Wen;Chung, Yi-Chan;Tsai, Chih-Hung;Hsieh, Chia-Hsiang;Chen, Hung-Hsi
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.99-119
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    • 2007
  • This research probes into the execution of small and medium-sized enterprises' value creativities by a difference analysis with different classifications, different capital, different turnover, different employees, and different established years. This study develop a questionnaire about value creativity with five dimensions and thirty-five items according to "Valuation" by McKinsey and Company, Inc. and Copeland et al., such as: "Aspiration and target," "Portfolio management," "Organization design," "Process management," and "Business and individual performance management." The results are as follows: (1) Most small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have executed value creativities; (2) There is a difference in the execution of value creativities between the livelihood industry and the chemical industry; the execution of value creativities by livelihood industry is better than the chemical industry; (3) For value creativities of the execution of different capital and turnover for SMEs, bigger entities are better than smaller ones; (4) For the value creativities of the execution of different numbers of staff in SMEs, those with more staff are better than those with fewer staff; (5) For the value creativities of the execution of different established years for SMEs, those established longer are better than those established shorter.

Value at Risk calculation using sparse vine copula models (성근 바인 코풀라 모형을 이용한 고차원 금융 자료의 VaR 추정)

  • An, Kwangjoon;Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.875-887
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    • 2021
  • Value at Risk (VaR) is the most popular measure for market risk. In this paper, we consider the VaR estimation of portfolio consisting of a variety of assets based on multivariate copula model known as vine copula. In particular, sparse vine copula which penalizes too many parameters is considered. We show in the simulation study that sparsity indeed improves out-of-sample forecasting of VaR. Empirical analysis on 60 KOSPI stocks during the last 5 years also demonstrates that sparse vine copula outperforms regular copula model.

The Impact of Financial Variables on Firm Profitability: An Empirical Study of Commercial Banks in Oman

  • JAYARAMAN, Gopu;AZAD, Imran;AHMED, Hanaa Sid
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.885-896
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    • 2021
  • The general role of commercial banks is to provide financial services to the general public and business, ensuring economic and social stability and sustainable growth of the economy. Commercial banks play an important role in mobilizing and channelizing funds for investment activities. This study analyzes the impact of the key financial variables on the net profit of the selected commercial banks in Oman. The study employs times series panel data - cross-sectional analysis of the key financials of five leading commercial banks for a period of 13 years from 2007 to 2019. The results reveal that the correlation matrix of the selected variables has a positive relationship with net profit, assets, deposits, loans, and interest income. However, the findings also shows a negative relationship between net profit and net loans to total deposits ratio. The study found net loans is the main independent variable that influences the profitability of the banks since the key source of revenue comes from the lending operations. The assets, total capital adequacy ratio have a mixed effect on the profitability of commercial banks. The total deposits and capital adequacy ratio have a negative effect on profitability mainly because excessive liquidity will increase the cost of capital and reduce the return on investment. Focusing on lending operations with a sound credit portfolio will improve profitability.

Post-Crisis Behavior of Banks in Asia: A Case of Chronic Over-Capitalization

  • MOHAMMAD, Khalil Ullah;MUHAMMAD, Affan;MUHAMMAD, Kaleem Ullah
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.517-525
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    • 2021
  • The study investigates the behavior of Asian banks in response to the subprime mortgage crisis and examines how countries that have experimented with a mix of conventional and Islamic banking managed their balance sheet during that period. The study carries out an independent mean t-test comparing the difference of leverage of 464 conventional commercial Asian banks pre- and post-crisis from the largest twenty-five Asian economies based on GDP (2007). The analysis uses 10-year unbalanced panel data of conventional banks and employs the generalized least squares estimation using a dummy variable event window method to capture the response of Asian banks. The study finds evidence of a structural change in the capital structure of Asian commercial banks in response to the financial crisis. Findings suggest that conventional banks increased their capital position more in countries that have both Islamic and conventional banking than those countries without Islamic banking services. By having Islamic banking in their product portfolio, countries can exert market discipline on conventional banks. The study identifies a significant role of global macroeconomic shocks on banks liability structure decision-making. Evidence shows that this increase in capital positioning by banks was a permanent rather than a temporary response.

Ex-ante Evaluation Process for Public R&D: Korean Case and its Implications for Indonesian R&D System

  • Lee, Elly Hyanghee;Jang, Young-Sun;Ariyani, Luthfina;Sari, Karlina;Hardiyati, Ria
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.281-307
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    • 2020
  • A variety of approaches are being applied to improve the existing ex-ante evaluation by expert panels in publicly funded R&D. While the objective evaluation criteria are constantly being improved to screen and select the superior projects, alternative approaches such as random prioritization and logical modeling are also underway to overcome the conservative bias of reviewers and to secure disruptive innovation. This study intends to find critical implications for ex-ante evaluation of public R&D system from the comparison of Indonesia and Korea. For the comparative analysis, literature review and expert in-depth interviews are conducted on the national R&D system and the selection evaluation process. In Korea, the selection criteria of projects are legally promulgated for establishing an objective evaluation system, and at the program level, the major considerations in the planning process are specified by Presidential Decree. On the other hand, while Indonesia conducts R&D in 47 strategic fields largely by public research institutes (PRI) based on the non-competitive government contributions. This study draws out implications of institutionalizing the planning process at the level of program, and of increasing the ratio of contract-based competitive funding at the level of project in the national R&D portfolio.