• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.517-541
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• 2019

According to the OECD (2015) and UN (2017), Korea was classified as an immigration country. The designation as an immigration country means that net migration will remain positive and international migration is likely to affect population growth. KOSTAT (2011) used a model with more than 15 parameters to divide sexes, immigration and emigration based on the Wilson (2010) model, which takes into account population migration factors. Five years later, we assume the average of domestic net migration rate for the last five years and foreign government policy likely quota. However, both of these results were conservative estimates of international migration and provide different results than those used by the OECD and UN to classify an immigration country. In this paper, we proposed a stochastic projection on international migration using nonparametric model (FDM by Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and Coherent FDM by Hyndman et al. (2013)) that uses a functional data model for the international migration data of Korea from 2000-2017, noting the international migration such as immigration, emigration and net migration is non-linear and not linear. According to the result, immigration rate will be 1.098(male), 1.026(female) in 2018 and 1.228(male), 1.152(female) in 2025 per 1000 population, and the emigration rate will be 0.907(male), 0.879(female) in 2018 and 0.987(male), 0.959(female) in 2025 per 1000 population. Thus the net migration is expected to increase to 0.191(male), 0.148(female) in 2018 and 0.241(male), 0.192(female) in 2025 per 1000 population.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.133-155
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to examine the pattern and characteristics of population movement in Kangwon province. The data for this study were drawn from in- out- migration data established by Korea National Statistical Office(KNSO) between 2000 and 2007. Sample survey and depth interview were also used. The results showed that the population of all Si and Gun except Choonchun and Wonju declined. This decline of population in Kangwon province persisted during the last decades. The decline started with the industrialization in the 1960s and 1980s. The decline of population in Kangwon province continued in the 1990s and 2000s with the open agriculture policy rooted in UR and FTA. All Si and Gun can be classified into five groups in terms of population movement in Kangwon province between 2000 and 2007. The first group(Group B) is where in-migration from other Si and Gun and out-migration to Seoul and Kyunggi continues in the period. Choonchun, Wonju, and Sokcho belong to this category. The second group(Group C) is where out-migrarion to Seoul and Kyunggi is larger the in-migration. It includes Cholwon, Taebaek, Donghae, and Samchok. The third group(Group D) is where out-migration to Group B is larger than that of other places. Hwachun, Pyungchang, Hoegsung, Gosung, and Hongchun are included in this group. The fourth group(Group E) is where out-migration to both Group B and Seoul & Kyunggi is large. Youngwol, Gangnung, and Chungsun belong to this category. The fifth group(Group F) is where few population movement occurs. It includes Yangyang, Yanggu, and Injae. The findings also shows that the extent of population movement to Choonchun and Wonju is larger than that of Seoul and Kyunggi in recent period. This finding indicates that the effect of base city like Choonchun and Wonju has become in recent years.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.11 no.3 s.28
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• pp.59-67
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• 2005

According to diverse studies in population migration, there has been a strong age-dependent population distribution in Korea. It is shown that a particular age-group tends to reside in a particular locale or community and the effect possesses usually statistical significance. We quantitatively address this issue: how certain division of age group resides in different region of the country, and investigate possible cause of this migration pattern for different age groups. In this study, population migration trend at age groups of 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s has been analyzed incorporating a spatial econometrics model that accounts for diverse statistical pitfalls such as spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependency. We found that migration trend for different age group corresponds to regional characteristics differently. The study concludes with some policy implications and suggests a need of further study.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.185-195
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• 2020

Background: The flathead grey mullet Mugil cephalus has the widest distribution among mugilid species. Recent studies based on mitochondrial DNA sequences showed that the species comprises at least 14 different groups, three of which occur in the northwest Pacific. We analyzed the otolith microchemistry of M. cephalus at several locations in Korea to improve understanding of migration pattern and population origin. Results: We collected 123 sagittal otoliths from seven locations and determined their concentrations of eight elements (⁷Li, ²⁴Mg, ⁵⁵Mn, ⁵⁷Fe, ⁶⁰Ni, ⁶³Cu, ⁸⁸Sr, and ¹³⁸Ba) using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Mean otolith elemental ratios differed significantly among the locations. The Sr:Ca, Fe:Ca, and Ba:Ca ratios were significantly higher than others, and useful chemical signatures for investigating the habitat use of M. cephalus populations. We identified five diverse and complicated migration patterns using the otolith data that we collected: estuarine resident (type I), freshwater migrant (type II), estuarine migrant (type III), seawater resident (type IV), and seawater migrant (type V). A canonical discriminant analysis plot revealed separation of two groups (type II in the Yellow Sea vs. other types in remaining locations). Two locations on Jeju Island, despite their close proximity, had fish with quite different migration patterns, corroborating previous molecular studies that distinguished two groups of fishes. Conclusion: We successfully showed that the migration patterns of the Korean mullet varied by location. Only fish from the western sector of Jeju had a unique migration pattern, which is likely confined population in this area. Among the eight otolith elements measured, the Sr:Ca ratio was found to be the best indicator of migration pattern and population origin.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.55-68
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• 2018

This paper aims to analyze the changes of the population distribution of metropolitan area by the development of the new town-type innovative city, focusing on the case of the Daegu Innovative City. Using dataset in the survey of population trend and the migration statistics microdata provided by the Statistics Korea, we decomposed population changes of Daegu and surrounding regions into natural increase and social increases(net migration). As a result of the analysis, Dong-gu, where the Daegu Innovation City is located, experienced population growth due to its increase of net migration, whereas the total population in Daegu been decreasing continuously between 2007 and 2016. In particular, the occurrence of high net migration to Dong-gu in 2014 showed a pattern consistent with the completion of the Daegu Innovative City development and the relocation of government institutions from the Seoul metro area. As a result of analyzing the migration to Dong-gu, the population moved from the Seoul metro area was 6.9% of the total, while the population moving from the other 7 gu-gun areas in Daegu (35.8%) and the surrounding regions (8.2%) were significantly high. In particular, the migration to Dong-gu were from neighboring areas, such as Suseong-gu, Buk-gu and Gyeongsan-si. Therefore, the development of the new town-type innovative city could accelerate toward sprawling urban structure.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.9
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• pp.737-744
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• 2016

Seoul Metropolitan Area has been changed by fierce internal migration during the last several decades. To determine the regional structure, we analyzed the in-and-out migration pattern and main factors affecting the intense of mobility. The migration within metropolitan city and province shows that in Seoul, Songpa and Dobong Gu gained a large population, in Incheon, Namdong Gu experienced a huge population influx, and in Gyeonggi Province, Hwasung, Yongin and Paju city gained a great population. In Seongnam, Suwon city lost a lot of population. These population gains and losses came from mainly residential redevelopment projects in the metropolitan city and new land development projects in Gyeonggi Province. The main factors affecting the intense of mobility diverse from city characters. In central type cities, house price gets the more population influx. In job-housing balanced cities, total income growth rate, housing supply rate and roads cause in-migration. In bed-town type cities, the increase of housing supply rate and parks increase the population. In suburban type cities, business density, housing supply rate, housing, subway station number and educational facilities increase population from outside the city. So, we have to prepare more detailed urban and housing policy responses.

• Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.83-93
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• 2004

This paper investigated the characteristics of population structure and the determinants of population movement in the south west area of Kyonggi-do by grouping 9 cities in 3 categories and using Panel data of $1995{\sim}2001$. The major findings of this paper were identified as follows : 1) The population structure of regions was different to the stages of urbanization. The ratio of child and elder dependency was high in the rural regions and low in the urbanized regions. It was due to the movement of economically active population of $20{\sim}40$ aged groups, from rural regions to urban regions. This means that more productive segments of the rural population leave the country to the city. In addition. The ratio of male to female was higher in $20{\sim}40$ aged groups for rural regions. This suggested that young females moved from rural regions to urban regions more than young males in the process of industrialization. 2) Based in pooling regression, income was the most significant determinant that could explain the inter-regional and intra-regional movement of population for south west area studied, The next one was educational opportunity variable. The coefficients of income and education were 0.5, 0,7 for intra-regional migration and 0.01, 0.02 for interregional migration indicating that Todaro's hypothesis could be tested well rather than Tiebout' model for this area.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.49 no.5
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• pp.728-746
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the selective migration of young age group and the stage migration which has proceeded through generations, on the transition of fertility and the population growth in the rural and urban in the case of Jeollabuk-do. For this, we use O-D matrix of 20-34 age group, the distribution of that group and women of child bearing age, and vital statistics in 1970-2010. The major findings of this study are as follows. First, the outflows from their birth place are common and dominant features of 20-34 age group in each time. Second, there is the stage migration which preceding generation moved from the rural areas to the cities in Jeollabuk-do and following generation has moved from the cities to Seoul metropolitan area. Third the selective outflow migration of young age group has leaded to reduction of the childbearing population, declining birthrate, aging and natural population decline. Due to the stage migration, these depopulation processes occurred in rural area in the past, and currently it expands to the cities with about 15 years time gap. In fact, there have been the natural population decrease which annual number of deaths exceed that of births from the late 1980s in the most rural areas and in the early 2000s, such a phenomenon has been confirmed also in urban areas. Therefore, this study concludes that the stage migration through generations is one of the crucial factor to the population growth in local cities and also brings out the step-wise population decrease in settlement hierarchies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

Rural decline due to the decrease of the local population is an inevitable phenomenon, and a vicious cycle has been formed between a lack of basic living services and a population decrease in rural areas. Therefore, the study aims to derive the migration decision-making characteristics based on basic living service infrastructure data in rural areas. To do this, the population change over the past 20 years was categorized into six types, and the relationship between the classified population change types and the number of basic living service infrastructures was analyzed using decision tree analysis. Of the total 3,501 regions, 801 regions were the continuous decline type, of which 740 were rural areas. On the other hand, among 569 regions that were the continuous increase type, 401 regions were urban areas, confirming the population imbalance between rural and urban areas. As a result of the decision tree analysis on the relationship between population change types and the distribution of basic living service infrastructure, the number of daycare centers was derived as an important variable to classify the continuous increase type. Hospitals, parks, and public transportation were also found to be major basic living services affecting the classification of population change types.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.51 no.2
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• pp.185-200
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• 2016

The discipline of Geography is broadly concerned with the interconnections between people and the environment. Particularly, this unique human-environment relationship often can be typically reflected from, and well illustrated by, the dynamics of microstates' island environment. While Tuvaluans living on vulnerable, low-lying atolls in the Pacific are not primarily responsible for contributing to climate change, yet they are experiencing its dreadful effects. Population pressure, caused by the differences in population size, distribution, and composition, has been constantly affected by resource unavailability and environmental instability on the islands. It also represents one of our challenges in understanding the complex influence of population dynamics on the living environment. What can be learned from Tuvalu in the context of population geography and environmental geography as well as its relationship with other Pacific island microstates? What are Tuvaluans' migration responses to their atolls' environmental crisis as well as the carrying capacity scenarios related to overpopulation? What are the current living experiences and settlement situations of Tuvaluan internal and external migrants both at home and abroad? This research examines the contemporary migration literature in the context of Tuvalu's population geography, while analyzing Tuvaluan migration patterns, discourses and perspectives in relation to environmental change.