• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population estimates

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A Comparative Study of Small Area Estimation Methods (소지역 추정법에 관한 비교연구)

  • Park, Jong-Tae;Lee, Sang-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2001
  • Usually estimating the means is used for statistical inference. However depending the purpose of survey, sometimes totals will give the better and more meaningful in statistical inference than the means. Here in this study, we dealt with the unemployment population of small areas with using 4 different small area estimation methods: Direct, Synthetic, Composite, Bayes estimation. For all the estimates considered in this study, the average of absolute bias and men square error were obtained in the Monte Carlo Study which was simulated using data from 1998 Economic Active Population Survey in Korea.

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A study on a multi-purpose sampling design involving both a farm population survery and a livestock survey (농업 기본통계 및 가축통계 조사 標本設計에 관한 연구)

  • 박홍래
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.12-20
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    • 1987
  • This paper aims at studing on a multi-purpose sampling design involving both a farm population survey and a livestock survey. Some features of this design are firstly to equalize the sampling errorsamong Shi-Gun (county) estimates, secondly, to make an efforts to increase the precision by introducing a purpose sample into the probability sample. There are two types of purpose samples according to sampling units; one is farm, the otheris enumeration district. A criterion of demarcation for selecting the farm purposesamle was investigated.

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EXISTENCE OF NON-CONSTANT POSITIVE SOLUTION OF A DIFFUSIVE MODIFIED LESLIE-GOWER PREY-PREDATOR SYSTEM WITH PREY INFECTION AND BEDDINGTON DEANGELIS FUNCTIONAL RESPONSE

  • MELESE, DAWIT
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.40 no.3_4
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    • pp.393-407
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, a diffusive predator-prey system with Beddington DeAngelis functional response and the modified Leslie-Gower type predator dynamics when a prey population is infected is considered. The predator is assumed to predate both the susceptible prey and infected prey following the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response and Holling type II functional response, respectively. The predator follows the modified Leslie-Gower predator dynamics. Both the prey, susceptible and infected, and predator are assumed to be distributed in-homogeneous in space. A reaction-diffusion equation with Neumann boundary conditions is considered to capture the dynamics of the prey and predator population. The global attractor and persistence properties of the system are studied. The priori estimates of the non-constant positive steady state of the system are obtained. The existence of non-constant positive steady state of the system is investigated by the use of Leray-Schauder Theorem. The existence of non-constant positive steady state of the system, with large diffusivity, guarantees for the occurrence of interesting Turing patterns.

The Applicability of the Genetic Algorithm on Spatial Distribution of Demographic Characteristics (인구구조 공간분포 특성에 관한 유전자 알고리즘 적용방안)

  • Choei, Nae-Young;Lee, Kyung-Yoon
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2010
  • The Genetic Algorithm is one of the population surface modelling tool in the field of urban and environmental research based on the gridded population data. Taking the East-Hwasung area as the case, this study first builds a gridded population data based on the GIS databases as well as municipal population survey data. The study then constructs the attribute values of the explanatory variables by way of GIS tools. The regression model constructed with the same variables is also run as a comparative purpose at the same time. It is shown that the GenAlg output predicted as much consistent and meaningful coefficient estimates for the explanatory variables as the regression model, indicating that it is a very useful interdisciplinary research tool to find optimal solutions in urban problems.

Implementing the Urban Effect in an Interpolation Scheme for Monthly Normals of Daily Minimum Temperature (도시효과를 고려한 일 최저기온의 월별 평년값 분포 추정)

  • 최재연;윤진일
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.203-212
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to remove the urban heat island effects embedded in the interpolated surfaces of daily minimum temperature in the Korean Peninsula. Fifty six standard weather stations are usually used to generate the gridded temperature surface in South Korea. Since most of the weather stations are located in heavily populated and urbanized areas, the observed minimum temperature data are contaminated with the so-called urban heat island effect. Without an appropriate correction, temperature estimates over rural area or forests might deviate significantly from the actual values. We simulated the spatial pattern of population distribution within any single population reporting district (city or country) by allocating the reported population to the "urban" pixels of a land cover map with a 30 by 30 m spacing. By using this "digital population model" (DPM), we can simulate the horizontal diffusion of urban effect, which is not possible with the spatially discontinuous nature of the population statistics fer each city or county. The temperature estimation error from the existing interpolation scheme, which considers both the distance and the altitude effects, was regressed to the DPMs smoothed at 5 different scales, i.e., the radial extent of 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and 5.0 km. Optimum regression models were used in conjunction with the distance-altitude interpolation to predict monthly normals of daily minimum temperature in South Korea far 1971-2000 period. Cross validation showed around 50% reduction in terms of RMSE and MAE over all months compared with those by the conventional method.conventional method.

A Study on the Population Estimation of Small Areas using Explainable Machine Learning: Focused on the Busan Metropolitan City (해석가능한 기계학습을 적용한 소지역 인구 추정에 관한 연구: 부산광역시를 대상으로)

  • Yu-Hyun KIM;Donghyun KIM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.97-115
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    • 2023
  • In recent years, the structure of the population has been changing rapidly, with a declining birthrate and aging population, and the inequality of population distribution is expanding. At this point, changes in population estimation methods are required, and more accurate estimates are needed at the subregional level. This study aims to estimate the population in 2040 at the 500m grid level by applying an explainable machine learning to Busan in order to respond to this need for a change in population estimation method. Comparing the results of population estimation by applying the explainable machine learning and the cohort component method, we found that the machine learning produces lower errors and is more applicable to estimating areas with large population changes. This is because machine learning can account for a combination of variables that are likely to affect demographic change. Overestimated population values in a declining population period are likely to cause problems in urban planning, such as inefficiency of investment and overinvestment in certain sectors, resulting in a decrease in quality in other sectors. Underestimated population values can also accelerate the shrinkage of cities and reduce the quality of life, so there is a need to develop appropriate population estimation methods and alternatives.

The Estimation of Urbanization Effect in Global Warming over Korea using Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures (최고, 최저기온을 이용한 우리나라 기온변화에서의 도시화효과 분석)

  • Koo, Gyo-Sook;Boo, Kyung-On;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.185-193
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    • 2007
  • This study investigates urbanization effect in warming trend of surface air temperature over Korea. The data used in this study consist of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures during the period of 32 years(1968-1999) from 16 stations of KMA. To calculate magnitude and trend of urbanization effect, stations were classified into urban and rural stations using population statistics. Urban stations were defined as those with population densities greater than 1000 persons per kilometer squared in 1995. The others were defined as rural stations. The urban stations were also subdivided into two groups according to their population totals. For estimates of urban effect magnitude, temperature change was calculated by comparing 16-year mean values between 1968-83 and 1984-99. Then, the difference between each urban station and every rural station was calculated. During the analysis period of 32 years, maximum temperature increase is $1.22^{\circ}C$. In the total temperature increase, urban effect is estimated by 28.7%. For minimum temperature, it becomes larger by about 10% than that in maximum temperature. Therefore, urban effect in an increasing trend of minimum temperature is 38.9% in the change of $1.13^{\circ}C$.

The Outline of Han River Basin Environmental master Plan Project (한강유역 환경보전 종합계획 사업의 개요)

  • 이선환
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.46-50
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    • 1982
  • Following rapid industrial development and urbanization in Korea, there is a need for the Government to implement effective control of pollution and to undertake specific schemes in areas where pollution of the environment is severe. In response to this need, Government of Korea prepare Han River Basin Environmental Master Plan Project for water, air, solid waste to cover environmental protection of the Han River Basin. The Project area is approximately 27,000 sq. Km extending over Seoul, Kyunggi, Kwangwon, Chungbuk Province. The total population of Master Plan Project area is approximately 11.6 million, or one-third of the total population of Korea. There are about 8,000 industries, including those located in 16 industrial complexes, in the project area. The scope of work and terms of reference are the following: (1) A Summary of existing land use and forecasts for changes in land use by the year 2,000. (2) Emission inventories for air, waste water, and solid wastes. (3) Forecasts of future population growth patterns and pollution loadings. (4) Identification of specific projects needs to reduce pollution levels and satisfy the environmental quality standards. (5) A Program of enforcement to include (i) self monitoring, and (ii) governmental inspections and surveillance. (6) A program for quality improvement and quality assurance of environmental measurements. (7) Reports summarizing all data collected analyzed during the study. (8) Conceptual design and feasibility studies, including cost estimates, for needed pollution control projects. (9) A financial plan for future detailed design and construction of public facilities, for financial incentives to industry, and for user charges for industrial use of public treatment of disposal works.

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Characteristics of Soil Groups Basd on the Development of Root Rot of Ginseng Seedlings (인삼 유묘 뿌리썩음병 진전에 따른 토양군별 특성)

  • 박규진;정후섭
    • Korean Journal Plant Pathology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.46-56
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    • 1997
  • Based on the principal component analysis (PCA) of Richards' parameter estimates, ginseng field soils were grouped as the principal component 1 (PC1) and the principal component 2 (PC2). The microflora and physico-chemical characteristics of each soil group were compared to elucidate soil environmental factors affecting the disease development of root rot of ginseng seedling. Among 3 soil groups by PC1, there were differences in the populations of total fungi (TF) and Cylindrocarpon plus Fusarium (C+F), and the population ratio of Cylindrocarpon plus Fusarium to total fungi or total bacteria (C+F/TF, C+F/TB) in rhizoplane of ginseng seedlings, the population of total actinomycetes (TA) and the population ratio of total Fusarium to total actinomycetes (Fus/TA) in soil, and soil chemical properties (EC, NO3-N, K, Mn, ect.). Among 4 soil groups by PC2, there were differences in TF, C+F, TB, C+F/TF and C+F/TB in the rhizoplane, Trichoderma plus Gliocladium (T+G) in soil, and P2O5 content in soil. Especially, EC, NO3-N, K, K/Mg and Mn were positively correlated to PC1, and TA was negatively to PC1; however, TF, C+F, TB, C+F/TF and C+F/TB in the rhizoplane were significantly correlated to PC2 positively. On the other hand, microbes in the rhizoplane were not significantly correlated to the stand-missing rate (SMR), although TA and Fe/Mn were negatively correlated, and pH and Ca were positively correlated to SMR.

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Genetic Diversity in Cultured and Wild Populations of the Ascidian Halocynthia roretzi Inferred from Mitochondrial DNA Analysis

  • Yoon, Moon-Geun;Lee, Joo-Kyung;Jin, Hyung-Joo;Jin, Deuk-Hee
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.44-48
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    • 2009
  • Nucleotide sequences of about 500 bp from the 5' end of mitochondrial (mt) DNA Cytochrome Oxidase I (COI) were analyzed to estimate the genetic variation between wild and cultured populations of the ascidian Halocynthia roretzi from two sites along the coast of Korea. A total of 25 haplotypes were defined by 21 variable nucleotide sites in the examined COI region. Genetic diversity (haplotype diversity and nucleotide divergence) of wild populations was higher than that of the cultured population. These data suggest that reduced genetic variation in the cultured population may have results from bottleneck effect caused by the use of a limited number of parental stock and pooling of gametes for fertilization. Pairwise population $F_{ST}$ estimates inferred that wild and cultured populations were genetically distinct. The combined results suggest that sequence polymorphism in the COI region would be preferable for estimating the genetic diversity of ascidian populations.