• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population demography

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Pure Density Evolution of the Ultraviolet Quasar Luminosity Function at 2 < z < 6

  • Kim, Yongjung;Im, Myungshin
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.53.2-53.2
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    • 2021
  • Quasar luminosity function (QLF) shows the active galactic nucleus (AGN) demography as a result of the combination of the growth and the evolution of black holes, galaxies, and dark matter halos along the cosmic time. The recent wide and deep surveys have improved the census of high-redshift quasars, making it possible to construct reliable ultraviolet (UV) QLFs at 2 < z < 6 down to M1450 = -23 mag. By parameterizing these up-to-date observed UV QLFs that are the most extensive in both luminosity and survey area coverage at a given redshift, we show that the UV QLF has a universal shape, and their evolution can be approximated by a pure density evolution (PDE). In order to explain the observed QLF, we construct a model QLF employing the halo mass function, a number of empirical scaling relations, and the Eddington ratio distribution. We also include the outshining of AGN over its host galaxy, which made it possible to reproduce a moderately flat shape of the faint end of the observed QLF (slope of ~ -1.1). This model successfully explains the observed PDE behavior of UV QLF at z > 2, meaning that the QLF evolution at high redshift can be understood under the framework of halo mass function evolution. The importance of the outshining effect in our model also implies that there could be a hidden population of faint AGNs (M1450 > -24 mag), which are buried under their host galaxy light.

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Predicting Land Use Change Affected by Population Growth by Integrating Logistic Regression, Markov Chain and Cellular Automata Models

  • Nguyen, Van Trung;Le, Thi Thu Ha;La, Phu Hien
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2017
  • Demographic change was considered to be the most major driver of land use change although there were several interacting factors involved, especially in the developing countries. This paper presents an approach to predict the future land use change using a hybrid model. A hybrid model consisting of logistic regression model, Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) was designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. Experiment was conducted in Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh Province, Vietnam. Demography and socio-economic variables dealing with urban sprawl were used to create a probability surface of spatio-temporal states of built-up land use for the years 2009, 2019, and 2029. The predicted land use maps for the years 2019 and 2029 show substantial urban development in the area, much of which are located in areas sensitive to source protections. It also showed that aquacultural land changes substantially in areas where are in the vicinity of estuary or near the sea dike. There was considerable variation between the communes; notably, communes with higher household density and higher proportion of people in working age have larger increases in aquacultural areas. The results of the analysis can provide valuable information for local planners and policy makers, assisting their efforts in constructing alternative sustainable urban development schemes and environmental management strategies.

Betel Quid Chewing and Upper Aerodigestive Tract Cancers: A Prospective Cohort Study in Khon Kaen, Thailand

  • Kampangsri, Wilas;Vatanasapt, Patravoot;Kamsa-ard, Siriporn;Suwanrungruang, Krittika;Promthet, Supannee
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.4335-4338
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    • 2013
  • Background: This study aimed to determine the association between betel quid chewing and the occurrence of upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers. Methods: A cohort of 17,388 subjects, recruited and interviewed over the 1990-2001 period, in Khon Kaen, Thailand, was followed up until 2011. The data were linked to the Khon Kaen Population-Based Cancer Registry. Results: The prevalence of betel quid chewing was 15.9%, with a female predominance (97.7%); the mean age of chewers was 57.7 years (SD 6.6). The overall incidence of UADT cancers from the cohort was 14.7 per 100,000 person-years, whereas the incidence among the chewers was 45.7. Betel nut chewing was the only major risk factor for UADT cancers in this population (HR=5.26, 95%CI=2.51-11.0), while weak associations were found for tobacco smoking and alcohol (HR=1.16, 95%CI=0.45-3.01 and 1.47, 95%CI=0.72-3.03 respectively). Conclusions: We found betel quid chewing to be a main risk factor for UADT cancers, resulting in a higher incidence in females. However, further study is required to explore the potential risk factors among non-chewers, non-smokers, and non-drinkers.

Cross Sectional Survey on Association between Alcohol, Betel-Nut, Cigarette Consumption and Health Promoting Behavior of Industrial Workers in Ghaziabad

  • Arora, Dimple;Marya, Charu Mohan;Menon, Ipseeta;Oberoi, Sukhvinder Singh;Dhingra, Chandan;Anand, Richa
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.139-144
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    • 2015
  • Background: The work force in industries are at risk of developing unduly high rates of health and behaviour related problems including abuse of alcohol, betel nut and cigarette (alcohol, betel nut and cigarette consumption). This study describes the relationships between alcohol, betel nut and cigarette consumption and health promoting behaviour among industrial workers. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional survey was conducted on workers in various industries of Ghaziabad city with concerned authority permission. A sample size of 732 workers was calculated based on pilot study. Through Simple random sampling 732 workers in 20 to 50 years age group with informed consent were interviewed through structured, pretested, validated questionnaire in vernacular language by one calibrated investigator. Data on socio demography, alcohol, betel nut and cigarette consumption pattern and health behaviour were collected. The association between health promoting behaviour and alcohol, betel nut and cigarette consumption was analysed by Logistic regression and Chi-square test through SPSS 16 at p<0.05 and 95%CI as significant. Results: Total prevalence of alcohol, betel nut and cigarette consumption in study population was 88%. The prevalence of individual alcohol, betel nut and cigarette consumption were 82%, 68% and 79% respectively. Combined alcohol, betel nut and cigarette prevalence in study population was 58%. Alcohol and cigarette users were significantly higher (p<0.001) in 30 to 40 years age group with lower level of education having poor attitude towards health promoting behaviour, poor oral hygiene practices and rare indulgence in regular physical exercise. Conclusions: This study stimulate further research on exploring methods to prevent initiation of health risk behaviour and promote healthy behaviour with cessation help for the current alcohol, betel nut and cigarette users.

Procesos de Configuración Regional y Localidades de Uruguay 1900-1960

  • Fernandez, Tabare;Wilkins, Andres
    • Iberoamérica
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.159-206
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    • 2019
  • The objective of the article is to describe the social structure of Uruguay at the beginning of the sixties, presenting the social differences that configured the level of urban centers or localities since the beginning of the 20th century. The willing is to identify what historical processes would have intervened to have institutionalized a highly heterogeneous distribution of welfare in the territory. The sources of information are four: (i) the population censuses of 1908 and 1963; (ii) the agricultural censuses of 1908, 1951, 1956 and 1961; (iii) the work of historical demography; and (iv) the indices published by the General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses in 1971 and 1989. Due to the lack of a dictionary of the localities, the authors matched these sources. The regional configuration processes analyzed here are: the departmentalization of the territory; the agriculturization; the industrialization and the balnearización. In each case, the regional and local impact of the political, economic and social transformation is analyzed. The article dedicate a wide space to describe the changes in the entity, the legal status, the territorial distribution and the wellbeing of the localities, marking especially those under 1500 inhabitants, which make up an important micro-urbanization of the country. The foundation of 70% of the localities occurred during the reformist period that locates that project as a type of "social democratic" State with its "Bismarkian" type traits. The institutionalization of these territories is based on their precarious and very poor character, the inequality in the most elementary welfare enjoyed by the established towns and cities increases. The processes of spatialization that reconfigured the territory during this time, contributed to the urbanization and population relocation, but in a framework in the political project of the "small model country" did not plan on the territory, the state have no special attention to correct the asymmetries in local welfare distribution structures. We finished with the hypothesis that beyond the social advances of the "Battlista" period, the territorial inequality of opportunities has grown between 1908 and 1963 because the lack of a public planification.

Modeling water supply and demand under changing climate and socio-economic growth over Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan using WEAP

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Panda, Manas Ranjan;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.116-116
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    • 2020
  • Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a highly mountainous and remote region covering 45% of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with around 1.8 million population is vulnerable to climate change and socio-economic growth makes water resources management and planning more complex. To understand the water scarcity in the region this study is carried out to project water supply and demand for agricultural and domestic sector under various climate-socio-economic scenarios in five sub catchments of GB i.e., Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok for a period of 2015 to 2050 using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. For climate change scenario ensembled mean of three global climate models (GCMs) was used under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and agricultural Land Development (LD) scenarios were combined with climate scenarios to develop climate-socio-economic scenario. Our results indicate that the climate change and socio-economic growth would create a gap between supply and demand of water in the region, with socio-economic growth (e.g. agricultural and population) as dominant external factor that would reduce food production and increase poverty level in the region. Among five catchments only Astore and Gilgit will face shortfall of water while Shyoke would face shortfall of water only under agricultural growth scenarios. We also observed that the shortfall of water in response to climate-socio-economic scenarios is totally different over two water deficient catchments due to its demography and geography. Finally, to help policy makers in developing regional water resources and management policies we classified five sub catchments of UIB according to its water deficiency level.

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RPSA Gene Mutants Associated with Risk of Colorectal Cancer among the Chinese Population

  • Zhang, Shan-Chun;Jin, Wen;Liu, Hui;Jin, Ming-Juan;Chen, Ze-Xin;Ding, Zhe-Yuan;Zheng, Shuang-Shuang;Wang, Li-Juan;Yu, Yun-Xian;Chen, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.7127-7131
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    • 2013
  • The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ribosomal protein SA (RPSA) gene with colorectal cancer (CRC). A case-control study including 388 controls and 387 patients with CRC was conducted in a Chinese population. Information about socio-demography and living behavior factors was collected by a structured questionnaire. Three SNPs (rs2133579, rs2269349, rs7641291) in RPSA gene were genotyped by Illumina SnapShot method. Multiple logistic regression models were used for assessing the joint effects between tea consumption and SNPs on CRC. The subjects with rs2269349 CC genotype had a decreased risk for CRC (OR=0.60; 95%CI = 0.37-0.99), compared with TT/CT genotype after adjustment for covariates. A similar association of rs2269349 with rectal cancer was observed (OR=0.49; 95%CI=0.24-1.00). Further analyses indicated that this SNP could modify the protective effect of tea drinking on CRC. Among the subjects with rs2269349 TT/CT or rs2133579 AA/GA, there was a marginal significantly lower risk of CRC (OR and 95%CI: 0.63 and 0.39-1.01 for rs2269349; 0.64 and 0.40-1.02 for rs2133579) in tea-drinking subjects in comparison to non-tea-drinking subjects. Mutants in the RPSA gene might be associated with genetic susceptibility to CRC and influence the protective effect of tea consumption in the Chinese population.

Association between Smoking and Mortality: Khon Kaen Cohort Study, Thailand

  • Kamsa-ard, Siriporn;Promthet, Supannee;Lewington, Sarah;Burrett, Julie Ann;Sherliker, Paul;Kamsa-ard, Supot;Wiangnon, Surapon;Parkin, Donald Maxwell
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.2643-2647
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    • 2013
  • Background: Despite anti-smoking campaigns, smoking prevalence among Thai males aged 30 or older is high, at around 50%. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between smoking and mortality in a rural Thai community. Materials and Methods: Subjects enrolled into the Khon Kaen cohort study between 1990 and 2001 were followed up for their vital status until $16^{th}$ March 2012. The death resource was from the Bureau of Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Interior, Thailand. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyse the association between smoking and death, controlling for age, education level and alcohol drinking, and confidence intervals were calculated using the floating risk method. Results: The study recruited 5,962 male subjects, of whom 1,396 died during a median 13.5 years of follow-up. Current smokers were more likely to die than never smokers after controlling for age, education level and alcohol drinking (HR, 95%CI: 1.41, 1.32-1.51), and the excess mortality was greatest for lung cancer (HR, 95%CI: 3.51, 2.65-4.66). However, there was no increased risk with increasing dose of tobacco, and no difference in risk between smokers of yamuan (hand-rolled cigarettes) and manufactured tobacco. Conclusion: Mortality from cancer, particularly lung cancer, and from all causes combined is dependent on smoking status among men in rural Thailand, but the relative risks are lower than have been reported from studies in high income countries, where the tobacco epidemic is more established.

Quality Evaluation for Census and Vital Statistics of Korea Using Demographic Analysis (인구통계학적 분석을 이용한 우리나라의 센서스 및 동태자료에 대한 질적 평가)

  • Jeon, Sae-Bom;Kim, Seong-Yong;Park, You-Sung
    • Survey Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2012
  • Demographic Analysis(DA) as well as Post Enumeration Survey(PES) are typical methods for evaluating completeness of census and vital statistics. In spite of its popularity, DA has never been attempted in Korea, while other international journals of demography have pointed out the backwardness of death registration in Korea in terms of DA approach. This paper introduces various DA methods and modifies them to be adequate for Korea census and vital statistics. Our method are also applied to reconstruct year-age-sex specific population and estimate their omission rates for year and age. Empirical analysis of census and vital statistics of Korea from 1985 to 2010 demonstrates high completeness of death registration in Korea, contrary to existing literatures. We also investigates abnormal patterns in census by comparing with reconstruction data in view of cohort, sex ratio and age ratio.

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Demographic Risk Factors, Affected Anatomical Sites and Clinicopathological Profile for Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a North Indian Population

  • Krishna, Akhilesh;Singh, R.K.;Singh, Shraddha;Verma, Pratima;Pal, U.S.;Tiwari, Sunita
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.16
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    • pp.6755-6760
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    • 2014
  • Background: Oral cancer is a common form of cancer in India, particularly among men. About 95% are squamous cell carcinomas. Tobacco along with alcohol are regarded as the major risk factors. Objectives: (i) To determine associations of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) with respect to gender, age group, socioeconomic status and risk habits; (ii) To observe the distribution of affected oral anatomical sites and clinico-pathological profile in OSCC patients. Materials and Methods: This is an unmatched case-control study during period January 2012 to December 2013. Total of 471 confirmed OSCC patients and 556 control subjects were enrolled. Data on socio-demography, risk habits with duration and medical history were recorded. Results: There were significant associations between OSCC with middle age (41-50years; unadjusted OR=1.63, 95%CI=1.05-2.52, p=0.02) (51-60 years; unadjusted OR=1.79, 95%CI=1.15-2.79, p=0.009) and male subjects (unadjusted OR=2.49, 95%CI=1.89-3.27, p=0.0001). Cases with both habits of tobacco chewing and smoking were at a higher risk for OSCC than tobacco chewing alone (unadjusted OR=0.52, 95%CI=0.38-0.72, p=0.0001), duration of risk habits also emerged as a responsible factor for the development of carcinoma. The majority of patients were presented in well-differentiated carcinomas (39.9%). Prevalence of advance stages (TNM stage III, IV) was 23.4% and 18.3% respectively. The buccal mucosa was the most common (35.5%) affected oral site. Conclusions: In most Asian countries, especially India, there is an important need to initiate the national level public awareness programs to control and prevent oral cancer by screening for early diagnosis and support a tobacco free environment.