• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population data estimation

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Variance estimation for distribution rate in stratified cluster sampling with missing values

  • Heo, Sunyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.443-449
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    • 2017
  • Estimation of population proportion like the distribution rate of LED TV and the prevalence of a disease are often estimated based on survey sample data. Population proportion is generally considered as a special form of population mean. In complex sampling like stratified multistage sampling with unequal probability sampling, the denominator of mean may be random variable and it is estimated like ratio estimator. In this research, we examined the estimation of distribution rate based on stratified multistage sampling, and determined some numerical outcomes using stratified random sample data with about 25% of missing observations. In the data used for this research, the survey weight was determined by deterministic way. So, the weights are not random variable, and the population distribution rate and its variance estimator can be estimated like population mean estimation. When the weights are not random variable, if one estimates the variance of proportion estimator using ratio method, then the variances may be inflated. Therefore, in estimating variance for population proportion, we need to examine the structure of data and survey design before making any decision for estimation methods.

Development a Estimate Model of Migration Using Cohort-Survival Model (집단 생잔 모형을 이용한 인구이동모델 개발)

  • Han, Yi-Cheol;Lee, Jeong-Jae;Jung, Nam-Su
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.456-460
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a estimation model of migration with only population data using the cohort-survival model which has been used for forecasting future population. The fluctuation of population can be bisected to the natural change which can be occurred by birth and death and the social change which means migration. The factors of the social change are usually very important for establishing rural policies. However, researches using migration data has limitations because the usage of them are restricted. For verifying a estimation model of migration, comparing estimated population in 2000 year and migration quantity between 1996 and 2000 of 25 gu with real values, using population data and death ratio from 1995 to 2000 of the 25 gu in Seoul. Result shows a reliable data that R-square of forecating population model is 0.9755 and migration is 0.9180. So these model are worth to estimate a population and migration quantity to restricted migration data.

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인구 역 추정에 의한 시조의 연대를 추정하는 수리적 방법

  • 유동선;구자흥;이성철
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.97-108
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    • 2004
  • There are so many methods in population estimation such as logistic estimation and compound interest estimation. If we have some pieces of information about population of one tribe, we can estimate progenitor chronology of that tribe used by inverse estimation. In this paper, we describe several theory of population estimation, and develop mathematical method for estimation progenitor chronology from prior general data and statistical estimation theory. Several examples are illustrated.

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Estimation of Denominators- a New Approach for Calculating of Various Rates in Cancer Registries

  • Haroon, A.S.;Gupta, S.M.;Tyagi, B.B.;Farhat, J.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.3229-3232
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    • 2012
  • In this study, cancer incidence data were assessed to provide various rates of five year age groups for a given year, lying between two census years. The individual exponential growth rate method is most useful in both population-based and non-population cased cancer registries in India to estimate the population by five yearly age groups and also find the rates of crude rates, age standard rates and cumulative rates. This method has been shown to endure from bias and often results sacrificing the overall growth rate and correction factor must be needful in five year age group population to maintain it. A second method, the difference distribution method is also able to maintain the overall growth rate and overcome the bias in estimation of five yearly age group populations. From this point of view these methods serving a new technique for population estimation by five yearly age groups for inter census years.

Population Distribution Estimation Using Regression-Kriging Model (Regression-Kriging 모형을 이용한 인구분포 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Byeong-Sun;Ku, Cha-Yong;Choi, Jin-Mu
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.806-819
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    • 2010
  • Population data has been essential and fundamental in spatial analysis and commonly aggregated into political boundaries. A conventional method for population distribution estimation was a regression model with land use data, but the estimation process has limitation because of spatial autocorrelation of the population data. This study aimed to improve the accuracy of population distribution estimation by adopting a Regression-Kriging method, namely RK Model, which combines a regression model with Kriging for the residuals. RK Model was applied to a part of Seoul metropolitan area to estimate population distribution based on the residential zones. Comparative results of regression model and RK model using RMSE, MAE, and G statistics revealed that RK model could substantially improve the accuracy of population distribution. It is expected that RK model could be adopted actively for further population distribution estimation.

Estimation of Flow Population of Seoul Walking Tour Courses Using Telecommunications Data (통신 데이터를 활용한 도보관광코스 유동인구 추정 및 분석)

  • Park, Ye Rim;Kang, Youngok
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.181-195
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to analyze the spatial context by analyzing the flow characteristics of the walking tour course and visualizing effectively using the floating population data constructed through the communication data. The floating population data refinement algorithm was developed for estimation flow population along the road and the floating population data for each walking tour courses was constructed. In order to adopt the algorithm for forming suitable for the analysis of the walking tour courses, the estimation of floating population considering the area of the road and the estimation of floating population considering the value of floating population around the road were compared. As a result, the estimation of floating population considering ambient the values of flow population was adopted, which is more appropriate to apply analysis method due to the relatively consistent data. Then, a datamining algorithm for walking tour course was constructed according to the characteristics of the floating population data, the absence of missing values. Finally, this study analyzed the flow characteristics and spatial patterns of 18 walking trails in Seoul through the floating population data according to walking tour course. To do this, the kernel density analysis and the Getis-Ord $G^*_i$ statistical hotspot analysis were applied to visualize the main characteristics of each walking tour course.

Bayesian estimation for finite population proportion under selection bias via surrogate samples

  • Choi, Seong Mi;Kim, Dal Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.1543-1550
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we study Bayesian estimation for the finite population proportion in binary data under selection bias. We use a Bayesian nonignorable selection model to accommodate the selection mechanism. We compare four possible estimators of the finite population proportions based on data analysis as well as Monte Carlo simulation. It turns out that nonignorable selection model might be useful for weekly biased samples.

A Comparative Study of Small Area Estimation Methods (소지역 추정법에 관한 비교연구)

  • Park, Jong-Tae;Lee, Sang-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2001
  • Usually estimating the means is used for statistical inference. However depending the purpose of survey, sometimes totals will give the better and more meaningful in statistical inference than the means. Here in this study, we dealt with the unemployment population of small areas with using 4 different small area estimation methods: Direct, Synthetic, Composite, Bayes estimation. For all the estimates considered in this study, the average of absolute bias and men square error were obtained in the Monte Carlo Study which was simulated using data from 1998 Economic Active Population Survey in Korea.

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Effect of Grid Cell Size on the Accuracy of Dasymetric Population Estimation (격자크기가 밀도구분적 인구추정의 정확성에 미치는 영향)

  • JUN, Byong-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.127-143
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    • 2016
  • This study explored the variability in the accuracy of dasymetric population estimation with different grid cell sizes. Dasymetric population maps for Fulton County, Georgia in the US were generated from 30m to 420m at intervals of 30m using an automated intelligent dasymetric mapping technique, population data, and original and simulated land use and cover data. The accuracies of dasymetric population maps were evaluated using RMSE and adjusted RMSE statistics. Lumped fractal dimension values were calculated for the dasymetric population maps generated from resolutions of 30m to 420m using the triangular prism surface area (TPSA) method. The results show that a grid cell size of 210m or smaller is required to estimate population more accurately in terms of thematic accuracy, but a grid cell size of 30m is required to meet an acceptable spatial accuracy of dasymetric population estimation in the study area. The fractal analysis also indicates that a grid cell size of 120m is the optimal resolution for dasymetric population estimation in the study area.