• 아동학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.81-91
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• 1988

The present research studied the relationship between children's social competence and popularity and examined popularity variables for the prediction of children's social competence. The subjects of this study were 80 children, 40 boys and 40 girls at age 5. Children's social competence was measured by the children's teachers with the use of the Social Competence Scale (Kohn & Rossman, 1972). Children's popularity and unpopularity were obtained from the subjects with the use of Moore's (1973) Sociometric Status Test. Teacher's estimate of the popularity of children was obtained with the use of Connolly & Doyle's (1981) Teacher Rankings of Popularity. The analysis of the data was by Pearson's Correlation Coefficient, and Stepwise Multiple Regression. There were significant relationships between children's social competence and popularity (children's popularity, children's unpopularity, teacher's popularity). Teacher's estimate of child's popularity was the best variable with which to predict children's social competence, the second best variable was children's popularity as measured by Moore's Sociometric Test.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.40-51
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• 2012

한국의 온라인 토론게시판은 의견 공유뿐 아니라 여론 형성과 참여를 위한 공간으로 활발히 사용되고 있다. 토론게시판에서 어떤 글은 사회적 정치적 이슈를 몰고 다니기도 하고 어떤 글은 사용자의 관심을 끌지 못하기도 한다. 본 논문에서는 한국의 유명 토론게시판인 다음 아고라와 서프라이즈에서 수집한 글의 통계적 정보를 이용하여 글의 인기를 분석하고 인기글을 예측하기 위한 예측모델을 제안한다. 분석결과 아고라는 87.52%의 글이 게시판에 제출된 후 하루가 지나기 전에 글의 인기가 끝나고 있었지만 서프라이즈는 39%의 글이 4일 이상 인기가 지속되고 있었다. 그렇지만 글의 인기기간과 조회수의 상관관계는 낮았다. 조회수 증가가 오랫동안 지속된다고 해서 최종 조회수가 높다는 것을 의미하지는 않는다. 본 논문에서는 분류와 예측 분야에서 잘 알려진 SVM 모델과 유사매칭 모델, 그리고 새롭게 제안한 예측 모델 '베이스 라인'을 이용하여 인기글을 예측하고 평가하였다. SVM 모델이 F-measure와 정밀도에서 유사매칭과 베이스라인보다 우수하였으며, 베이스라인이 실행시간에서 가장 우수한 성능을 보였다.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.49-55
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 유튜브 먹방 콘텐츠의 인기를 예측하는 모형을 제안하고 사후 분석을 통하여 먹방 콘텐츠의 인기에 영향을 주는 요인들을 식별하였다. 이를 위해 API와 Pretty Scale을 활용하여 구독자수 상위 먹방 채널들로부터 22,223개 콘텐츠의 정보를 수집하고 Random Forest, XGBoost 및 LGBM 등의 머신러닝 알고리즘을 기반으로 조회수와 좋아요수 예측모델을 구축하였다. SHAP 분석 결과 조회수 예측 모형에서는 구독자수가 예측에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 반면, 좋아요수 예측 모형에서는 크리에이터의 매력도가 중요변수로 도출되는 등 콘텐츠 조회와 좋아요 반응에 대한 선행요인이 다름을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 대량의 온라인 콘텐츠를 분석하여 실증 분석을 진행하였다는 점에서 학술적 의의가 있으며 먹방 크리에이터들에게 시청자들의 콘텐츠 소비 경향을 알려주고 상품성 높은 콘텐츠 제작의 가이드를 제공한다는 점에서 실무적인 의의를 지닌다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.418-428
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• 2014

In social network services, such as Facebook, Google+, Twitter, and certain postings attract more people than others. In this paper, we propose a novel method for predicting the lifespan and retweet times of tweets, the latter being a proxy for measuring the popularity of a tweet. We extract information from retweet graphs, such as posting times; and social, local, and content features, so as to construct prediction knowledge bases. Tweets with a similar topic, retweet pattern, and properties are sequentially extracted from the knowledge base and then used to make a prediction. To evaluate the performance of our model, we collected tweets on Twitter from June 2012 to October 2012. We compared our model with conventional models according to the prediction goal. For the lifespan prediction of a tweet, our model can reduce the time tolerance of a tweet lifespan by about four hours, compared with conventional models. In terms of prediction of the retweet times, our model achieved a significantly outstanding precision of about 50%, which is much higher than two of the conventional models showing a precision of around 30% and 20%, respectively.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제9권9호
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• pp.3635-3654
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• 2015

With the rapid development of smart devices and mobile Internet, the video application plays an increasingly important role on mobile devices. Understanding user behavior patterns is critical for optimized operation of mobile live streaming systems. On the other hand, volume based billing models on cloud services make it easier for video service providers to scale their services as well as to reduce the waste from oversized service capacities. In this paper, the watching behaviors of a commercial mobile live streaming system are studied in a content-centric manner. Our analysis captures the intrinsic correlation existing between popularity and watching intensity of programs due to the synchronized watching behaviors with program schedule. The watching pattern is further used to estimate traffic volume generated by the program, which is useful on data volume capacity reservation and billing strategy selection in cloud services. The traffic range of programs is estimated based on a naive popularity prediction. In cross validation, the traffic ranges of around 94% of programs are successfully estimated. In high popularity programs (>20000 viewers), the overestimated traffic is less than 15% of real happened traffic when using upper bound to estimate program traffic.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.1414-1430
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• 2022

Due to the Internet of Things popularity, many agricultural data are collected by sensors automatically. The abundance of agricultural data makes precise prediction of rice yield possible. Because the climate factors have an essential effect on the rice yield, we considered the climate factors in the prediction model. Accordingly, this paper proposes a machine learning model for rice yield prediction in Taiwan, including the genetic algorithm and support vector regression model. The dataset of this study includes the meteorological data from the Central Weather Bureau and rice yield of Taiwan from 2003 to 2019. The experimental results show the performance of the proposed model is nearly 30% better than MARS, RF, ANN, and SVR models. The most important climate factors affecting the rice yield are the total sunshine hours, the number of rainfall days, and the temperature.The proposed model also offers three advantages: (a) the proposed model can be used in different geographical regions with high prediction accuracies; (b) the proposed model has a high explanatory ability because it could select the important climate factors which affect rice yield; (c) the proposed model is more suitable for predicting rice yield because it provides higher reliability and stability for predicting. The proposed model can assist the government in making sustainable agricultural policies.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.441-457
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• 2024

Semicontinuous data are characterized by a mixture of a point probability mass at zero and a continuous distribution of positive values. This type of data is often modeled using a two-part model where the first part models the probability of dichotomous outcomes -zero or positive- and the second part models the distribution of positive values. Despite the two-part model's popularity, variable selection in this model has not been fully addressed, especially, in high dimensional data. The objective of this study is to investigate variable selection and prediction performance of penalized regression methods in two-part models. The performance of the selected techniques in the two-part model is evaluated via simulation studies. Our findings show that LASSO and ENET tend to select more predictors in the model than SCAD and MCP. Consequently, MCP and SCAD outperform LASSO and ENET for β-specificity, and LASSO and ENET perform better than MCP and SCAD with respect to the mean squared error. We find similar results when applying the penalized regression methods to the prediction of crime incidents using community-based data.

• 서비스연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.27-43
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• 2024

중고차 시장에서 온라인 플랫폼 서비스의 시장 점유율은 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 또한 중고차 온라인 플랫폼 서비스는 서비스 이용자에게 차량의 제원, 사고 이력, 점검 내역, 세부 옵션, 그리고 중고차의 가격 등을 공개하고 있다. 2023년 현재 국내 자동차 시장에서 SUV 차종의 신차 점유율은 50% 이상으로 확대되었으며, 하이브리드 차종은 신차 판매량이 지난해에 비해 두 배 이상 증가하였다. 이에 따라 이들 차종은 국내 중고차 시장에서도 인기를 끌고 있다. 기존 연구는 전체 차량 또는 브랜드별 차량을 대상으로 머신러닝 모델을 실행하여 중고차 가격 예측 모델을 제안하였다. 반면 국내 자동차 시장에서 SUV와 하이브리드 차종의 인기는 매년 상승하고 있으나, 이들 차종을 대상으로 중고차 가격 예측 모델을 제안한 연구는 찾기 어려웠다. 본 연구는 국내 시장에서 자국 브랜드가 생산한 세단, SUV, 그리고 하이브리드 차종을 대상으로 차량 제원과 옵션, 총 72개의 특성을 활용하여 이들 차종별 가장 우수한 중고차 가격 예측 모델을 선정하였다. 이를 위해 특성 선택으로 Lasso 회귀 모델을 활용하여 특성을 선별한 후 동일 샘플링으로 앙상블 모델을 실행하였다. 그 결과 모든 차종에서 최우수 모델은 CBR 모델로 선정되었으며, 차종별 최우수 모델을 대상으로 Tree SHAP Value의 시각화를 실행하여 특성의 기여도 및 방향성을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 시사점으로 온라인 플랫폼 서비스를 이용하는 매매관계자에게 차종별 중고차 가격 예측 모델을 제안하고 특성의 기여 수준과 방향성을 확인함으로써 이들 간 정보의 비대칭으로 야기된 문제 해결에 지원이 될 것으로 기대한다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권7호
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• pp.306-312
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• 2006

Support Vector Machine(SVM), of which the foundations have been developed by Vapnik (1995), is gaining popularity thanks to many attractive features and promising empirical performance. In this paper, we propose a new short-term load forecasting technique based on SVM. We discuss the input vector selection of SVM for load forecasting and analyze the prediction performance for various SVM parameters such as kernel function, cost coefficient C, and $\varepsilon$ (the width of 8 $\varepsilon-tube$). The computer simulation shows that the prediction performance of the proposed method is superior to that of the conventional neural networks.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.215-220
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• 2022

Emotion recognition is one of the most important and challenging areas of computer vision. Nowadays, many studies on emotion recognition were conducted and the performance of models is also improving. but, more research is needed on emotion recognition and sentiment analysis of video viewers. In this paper, we propose an emotion analysis system the includes a sentiment analysis model and an interest prediction model. We analyzed the emotional patterns of people watching popular and unpopular videos and predicted the level of interest using the emotion analysis system. Experimental results showed that certain emotions were strongly related to the popularity of videos and the interest prediction model had high accuracy in predicting the level of interest.