• 제목/요약/키워드: Political risk

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Exploring the Complexities of Dams' Impact on Transboundary Flow: A Meta-Analysis of Climate and Basin Factors

  • Abubaker Omer;Hyungjun Kim
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.177-177
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    • 2023
  • The impacts of dams on transboundary flow are complex and challenging to project and manage, given the potential moderating influence of a broad range of anthropogenic and natural factors. This study presents a global meta-analysis of 168 studies that examines the effect magnitude of dams on downstream seasonal, annual flow, and hydrological extremes risk on 39 hotspot transboundary river basins. The study also evaluates the impact of 13 factors, such as climate, basin characteristics, dams' design and types, level of transboundary cooperation, and socioeconomic indicators, on the heterogeneity of outcomes. The findings reveal that moderators significantly influence the impact of dams on downstream flow, leading to considerable heterogeneity in outcomes. Transboundary cooperation emerges as the key factor that determines the severity of dams' effect on both dry and wet season's flows at a significance level of 0.01 to 0.05, respectively. Specifically, the presence of water-supply and irrigation dams has a significant (0.01) moderating effect on dry-season flow across basins with high transboundary cooperation. In contrast, for wet-season flow, the basin's vulnerability to climate extremes is associated with a large negative effect size. The various moderators have varying degrees of influence on the heterogeneity of outcomes, with the aridity index, population density, GDP, and risk level of hydro-political tension being the most significant factors for dry-season flow, and the risk level of hydro-political tension and basin vulnerability to climate extremes being the most significant for wet-season flow. The results suggest that transboundary cooperation is crucial for managing the impacts of dams on downstream flow, and that various other factors, such as climate, basin characteristics, and socioeconomic indicators, have significant moderating effects on the outcomes. Thus, context-specific approaches are necessary when predicting and managing the impacts of dams on transboundary flow.

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Trend Analysis by Risk Observation: How the German Statutory Accident Insurance Prepares for the Future in Occupational Safety and Health

  • Angelika Hauke;Eva Flaspoler;Ruth Kluser;Ina Neitzner;Dietmar Reinert
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.429-439
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    • 2022
  • Background: The risk observatory (RO) of the German Social Accident Insurance (DGUV) provides strategic support to the German Social Accident Insurance Institutions (GSAII) in proactive prevention. It does so by identifying future challenges and opportunities for occupational safety and health (OSH) resulting from new trends and developments that affect employees as well as children in elementary education, pupils, and students. Methods: The core of the RO is an online survey that relies on a pool of new trends and developments identified via internet and literature research. 865 prevention experts of the GSAII and the DGUV participated in the survey. They rated trends and developments regarding their sector-specific risks and opportunities for OSH in the 5 years to come. Results: Sector-specific and over-all results show that besides well-known OSH risks such as musculoskeletal stress and noise, developments relevant for OSH come to the fore that do not have their origin in work itself, but are strongly influenced by political, social, economic, environmental, or technical developments that accident insurance can only peripherally influence. Shortage of skilled staff was identified as a threat to OSH in almost all sectors. Conclusions: Prevention must find ways to address repercussions of such OSH risks. Cooperation and political awareness are therefore gaining in importance. Also, implementing a prevention culture in society and strengthening individuals' health and safety literacy, e.g., by target-group-specific communication and sensitization, as well as early safety and health education, help to counteract those OSH risks.

THE CAUSES OF BAD PROFIT IN OVERSEAS CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • Seung Heon Han;Du Yon Kim;Sang Hyuk Park
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 1th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.1237-1243
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    • 2005
  • International construction projects are exposed to various and complicated risk factors stemming from different political, economical, social, and cultural backgrounds, which make contractors entering into international construction to experience severe losses. It implies that overseas markets do not necessarily secure the high return, which is typically expected to in the high risky attempts. Accordingly, contractors need to evaluate various risk factors faced with overseas construction projects that can possibly aggravate the profitability. This paper aims at establishing a valid groundwork for further research on developing the integrated risk management model. For this end, it analyzes the long-term trend of profitability on total of 3,487 projects performed by Korean global contractors in world-wide construction markets during the last four decades. Then, it investigates the possible factors/causes of bad profit that have affected the profitability significantly through the structured surveys of 90 real overseas projects based on the project-specific information and experiences of Korean contractors in overseas markets. Furthermore, it analyzes relative importance of these factors/causes and identifies the important features expected for the risk management of international construction projects. Finally, vital distinctions between success and failure projects and lessons learned to improve profitability are then distilled.

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The Influence of Organizational External Factors on Construction Risk Management among Nigerian Construction Companies

  • Adeleke, A.Q.;Bahaudin, A.Y.;Kamaruddeen, A.M.;Bamgbade, J.A.;Salimon, Maruf Gbadebo;Khan, Muhammad Waris Ali;Sorooshian, Shahryar
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2018
  • Background: Substantial empirical research has shown conflicting results regarding the influence of organizational external factors on construction risk management, suggesting the necessity to introduce a moderator into the study. The present research confirmed whether rules and regulations matter on the relationships between organizational external factors and construction risk management. Methods: Based on discouragement and organizational control theory, this research examined the effects of organizational external factors and rules and regulations on construction risk management among 238 employees operating in construction companies in Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria. A personally administered questionnaire was used to acquire the data. The data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. Results: A significant positive relationship between organizational external factors and construction risk management was asserted. This study also found a significant positive relationship between rules and regulations and construction risk management. As anticipated, rules and regulations were found to moderate the relationship between organizational external factors and construction risk management, with a significant positive result. Similarly, a significant interaction effect was also found between rules and regulations and organizational external factors. Implications of the research from a Nigerian point of view have also been discussed. Conclusion: Political, economy, and technology factors helped the construction companies to reduce the chance of risk occurrence during the construction activities. Rules and regulations also helped to lessen the rate of accidents involving construction workers as well as the duration of the projects. Similarly, the influence of the organizational external factors with rules and regulations on construction risk management has proven that most of the construction companies that implement the aforementioned factors have the chance to deliver their projects within the stipulated time, cost, and qualities, which can be used as a yardstick to measure a good project.

사전주의의 원칙은 비과학적인가?: 위험 분석과의 논쟁을 통해 본 사전주의 원칙의 '합리성' (Is the Precautionary Principle Unscientific?: 'Rationality' of the Precautionary Principle and its Conflicts with Risk Analysis Framework)

  • 하대청
    • 과학기술학연구
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.143-174
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    • 2010
  • 과학적 불확실성이 존재하는 상황에서 위험에 대응하는 규제 정책의 정당성을 어떻게 확보할 수 있을까? 이런 중요한 물음과 관련해 70년대 이후 유럽을 중심으로 사전주의의 원칙이 하나의 대안으로 부상해왔고 국제 환경법 분야에서는 주요 원리로 인정받아왔다. 하지만 이 원칙은 그 정의의 모호함 때문에 위험분석 옹호자들로부터 다양한 비판을 받아왔다. 이 논문은 이런 여러 비판들의 적실성과 부당함을 함께 평가하면서 사전주의의 원칙의 정교화작업을 시도할 것이다. 그리고 이런 작업을 통해 얻은 결과를 위험 거버넌스 중 과학적 영역으로 흔히 인정받는 위험평가에 적용해봄으로써 이 원칙의 정책적 활용 가능성을 탐색해볼 것이다. 특히, 사전주의의 원칙은 단지 도덕적 태도이거나 정치적 입장일 뿐이라는 일부 시각을 반박하면서 이 원칙이 실제 과학적 활동 속에서 충분히 적용가능한 실제적 원리임을 강조할 것이다.

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의약품 사건의 리스크 인식에 영향을 주는 요인: 석면 함유 의약품 사건을 중심으로 (Factors Which Affect Risk Perception of Medications Containing Asbestos)

  • 전미숙;정재훈;손애리
    • 한국임상약학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.269-277
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to identify the factors which affect risk perception and attitude on government risk management over medications containing asbestos among parents of elementary school students. Methods: This research design was cross-sectional study using self-administered questionnaire. The survey subjects were parents of elementary school students in Seoul, total of 1,051 subjects. The survey period was from June through July of 2011. The collected data were analyzed using the SPSS 20.0. Results: The subjects perceived high risk regarding medications containing asbestos. About 83.6% of the subjects perceived that the result taking of medications containing asbestos was fatal, 82.8% felt that medications containing asbestos was a very serious social problem, 79.5% agreed that medications containing asbestos was a new type of threat. The risk perception for medications containing asbestos was related to political affiliation, attitudes of dealing medicines, main use of media, and personal communication credibility. Those who did not believe that the current government policy was correct and the government was working toward the public's benefit and not its own had the higher level of negative attitudes towards the government's risk management over the case of medications containing asbestos. Conclusion: In implementing government policy, all information should be efficiently and accurately communicated through a transparent implementation process. Also, the government must have plans for countermeasures in case of an emergency and respond efficiently in order to maintain their credibility. Moreover, this highlights the need for health authorities to exert more effort in increasing public education/awareness, especially those concerning drug and dug-taking behavior, in order to harness positive attitude and trust towards the government's policy. For a more effective risk communication, the media, health experts, government representatives, and related industries should work together.

Development of flood hazard and risk maps in Bosnia and Herzegovina, key study of the Zujevina River

  • Emina, Hadzic;Giuseppe Tito, Aronica;Hata, Milisic;Suvada, Suvalija;Slobodanka, Kljucanin;Ammar, Saric;Suada, Sulejmanovic;Fehad, Mujic
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.505-524
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    • 2022
  • Floods represent extreme hydrological phenomena that affect populations, environment, social, political, and ecological systems. After the catastrophic floods that have hit Europe and the World in recent decades, the flood problem has become more current. At the EU level, a legal framework has been put in place with the entry into force of Directive 2007/60/EC on Flood Risk Assessment and Management (Flood Directive). Two years after the entry into force of the Floods Directive, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), has adopted a Regulation on the types and content of water protection plans, which takes key steps and activities under the Floods Directive. The "Methodology for developing flood hazard and risk maps" (Methodology) was developed for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, following the methodology used in the majority of EU member states, but with certain modifications to the country's characteristics. Accordingly, activities for the preparation of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment for each river basin district were completed in 2015 for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Activities on the production of hazard maps and flood risk maps are in progress. The results of probable climate change impact model forecasts should be included in the preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plans, which is the subsequent phase of implementing the Flood Directive. By the foregoing, the paper will give an example of the development of the hydrodynamic model of the Zujevina River, as well as the development of hazard and risk maps. Hazard and risk maps have been prepared for medium probability floods of 1/100 as well as for high probability floods of 1/20. The results of LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) recording were used to create a digital terrain model (DMR). It was noticed that there are big differences between the flood maps obtained by recording LiDAR techniques in relation to the previous flood maps obtained using georeferenced topographic maps. Particular attention is given to explaining the Methodology applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

만성질환 예방을 위한 맞춤형 건강관리 서비스의 접근전략과 발전방향 (Strategies to approach the customized health management service to prevent chronic diseases)

  • 김영복
    • 보건교육건강증진학회지
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: Life style modification leads to decrease health risk and change of health status for person at health risk. This study aimed to suggest essential components and effective strategies for customized health management service to provide individual and risk group in public and private health care organizations. Methods: To systematic review the essential component of health management service, I performed to collect political legislation, research papers, reports, publication and public release for heath management service from 2008 to 2016. Essential components of heath management service were service scope, service design, organizations and applied technology. Results: Service cope was composed of health risk factors, such as smoking, drinking, nutrition, physical activity and weight control. Main strategies were customized health management services, personalized behavior modification programs, evidence-based service protocol, utilization of information and communications technology (ICT), multi-dimension and multi-level approach, and public and private organizations partnership through health policies and health care system. Conclusions: To make the most of the limited resources, it should require a systematic approach that focuses on continuous monitoring and partnership of health management service.

안전문화와 효율적 안전경영 방안 연구 (A Study on the Safety Culture and Effective Management System)

  • 이관형;오지영
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2005
  • Recently in Korean Society, risk and safety has become a central discourse in not only the social and natural science but also political decision making. The efficient organizational management contributes to controlling the risk factors in the workplace. For the management is influenced and improved by the organizational culture, the alternatives more than simply improving the work environment or enforcing the education of safety on each workers are required. This study was the status of safety culture in organizational members(managers and workers, and specialist) including the attitude on the safety atmosphere and risk perception, and experiences, knowledges, motivation etc. For this part, the method of questionnaire and statistical analysis are mobilized. The degree of safety commitment of organization members appears relatively high (3.97 in five scale estimation), but there are variations in this results according to socio-demographic characteristics. At the same time, managers and professionals actively participation in the program related to safety than workers in production/sales. The higher income level and career is the more attention to the safety is. Based on this survey, we make an rough suggestion of several tasks to the policy -makers: improvement of communication on the risk and safety is required and in particular, the workers in the relatively low level in production/sales. The education system about safety which is, with one-side, provided by government or managers turns out to be inefficient. Rather, small group performance of the organizational members which they participate in the communication with interaction in the various discourse are able to provoke the safety mood in workplace.

공급사슬 리스크 관리 연구동향 분석: 네트워크 분석을 중심으로 (Bibliometric Network Analysis on Supply Chain Risk Management Research)

  • 편제범;나진성
    • 한국산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.125-138
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    • 2018
  • 최근 기업은 급속한 기술의 변화, 고객 니즈의 다변화, 경쟁 환경의 심화 등으로 인한 시장요인 뿐만 아니라 천재지변, 테러, 사회 정치적 이해관계 등의 통제 불가능한 불안요인으로 인해 예측이 어렵고 불확실성이 높은 경영 환경에 놓여 있어, 리스크 관리의 중요성이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 최근 들어 관심이 높아지고 있는 리스크 관리의 연구 분야에 대해 공급사슬관리(SCM) 분야를 중심으로 연구 동향을 분석하고, 해당 분야의 핵심 연구를 파악하여 해당 분야의 유용한 학문적 정보를 파악하는 것이다. Scopus 데이터베이스를 활용하여 해외 저명한 저널에 게재된 논문 정보를 수집하여 키워드 네트워크 분석과 인용 및 공저자 정보로 생성되는 네트워크를 분석하였다.