• 한국과 국제사회
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.5-38
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• 2019

1987년 민주화운동 이후 한국정치는 김영삼, 김대중, 김종필에 의한 3김정치로 전환기를 맞았다. 한국정치는 3김정치 이전에는 1인에 의한 장기집권에 지속되었으나 3김정치에서는 정당통합과 정당연합을 통해 평화적인 정권교체가 가능하게 하였다. 3김정치에 대한 평가는 긍정적인 측면과 부정적인 측면이 공존한다. 3김정치에 대한 정치적 효과는 정당구도의 다양화와 정권교체의 안정화이다. 3김정치는 한국의 정당구도를 양당체제에서 다당체제로 변화시켰으며, 3당합당과 DJP연합 등 후보단일화를 통해 평화적 정권교체를 가능하게 하였다. 하지만 3김정치에 대한 정치적 왜곡은 정당의 단명화와 정치이념의 편중화이다. 3김정치는 3김의 전략적 판단에 따라 정당해체, 재창당, 정당통합 등으로 정당의 수명이 매우 짧았으며, 보수성향과 진보성향이 3김정치와 결부되어 지역적으로 정치이념의 편중화 현상을 강화하였다. 따라서 3김정치가 한국정치에서 차지하는 비중이 매우 높기 때문에 3김정치로 인한 정치적 왜곡은 한국정치를 위해 극복해야 한다.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.2-12
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• 2017

Research on democratic transitions has relatively ignored the question of why some countries experience a regressive form of political pacts, while others do not. This paper develops a simple game-theoretic model to explain the phenomenon of collusive pacts in the process of democratization. Trasformismo is a term that refers to a system of political exchange based on informal clientelistic politics. The existing studies of the politics of trasformismo have emphasized the timing of industrialization and the tradition of strong state as conditions of the politics of trasformismo. However, not every late industrializers and not every strong states experienced some variants of collusive political pacts in their trajectories of democratization. In this paper, I contend that the politics of trasformismo is rather a generalizable pattern of political elites' behavior under particular circumstances. By developing a simple game theoretic model, this paper suggests the conditions under which political actors are likely to collude to a regressive form of political pacts. The model shows that the likelihood of collusion to a regressive form of political pacts is a function of a set of parameters. First, a higher level of incumbency advantage in electoral competition is likely to be associated with a higher probability of collusive political pacts. Second, a higher degree of the monopoly of political representation of political parties without a close link with a variety of societal forces is likely to induce collusive behavior among politicians. Third, the ruling party leader's expectations about the likelihood of a safe extrication are related to collusive political pacts. This paper then engages in a case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea. The 1990 Korean case is interesting in that the ruling party created a new party after having merged with two opposition parties. This case can be considered a result of political maneuver in a context of democratization. The case study suggests the empirical relevance of the game-theoretic model. As the game of trasformismo and the case study of the 1990 three-party merger in South Korea have shown, the collusive political pact was neither determined by a certain stage of economic development nor by a particular cultural systems. Rather, it was a product of the art of trasformismo based on party leaders' rational calculations of the expected likelihood of taking governing power.

• 중국학논총
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• 제65호
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• pp.215-234
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• 2020

This paper aims to analyze the recent consolidation of Xi Jinping's power in the context of political reform of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and reason out its implications. After Reform and Opening Up, the CCP needed to adapt to the changing society, secure its legitimacy and reinforce its ruling power. Therefore, the CCP has practiced political reform focused on intra-democracy since 16th Party Congress in 2002. Intra-democracy in the CCP's collective leadership consists of two parts: a stable power succession, based on term limits and age limits, and a democratic management system, based on checks and compromises between political factions. Those mechanisms of intra-democracy are still functioning in the Xi Jinping era, which explains that the consolidation of Xi's power is the result of the agreement in the CCP. In other words, it is a short-term change to efficiently deal with challenges the CCP is facing.

• 의정연구
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.5-40
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• 2021

2021년 4.7 재보궐 선거에서 여당인 더불어민주당은 최근의 선거에서 확인된 탈 중간평가적 성격의 흐름을 깨고 기록적인 참패를 당했다. 왜 더불어민주당은 최근 선거의 흐름과 달리 큰 점수 차의 패배를 당한 것일까? 본 연구는 이러한 물음에 대한 답을 찾기 위해 4.7 재보궐 선거 이후 실시한 유권자 의식 조사 자료를 바탕으로 개별 유권자의 투표행태를 분석하는 한편으로 그와 같은 유권자 선택을 초래한 배경과 원인이 무엇인지를 살펴본다. 연구 결과, 4.7 재보궐 선거에서는 선행연구에서 확인된 바와 마찬가지로 정부여당에 대한 심판 여론이 강하게 나타났으며, 네거티브 선거가 전개되었다. 그러나 이번 재보궐 선거의 과정과 결과를 보다 구체적으로 살펴보면 일반적인 재보궐 선거와는 다른 모습이 확인된다. 과거 재보궐 선거에서 정권심판은 정치적 비중이 낮은 선거에서 여당 성향 유권자의 소극적인 참여나 정치적 부담이 덜한 상황에서 더욱 극대화되어 나타나는 적극적인 심판 심리에 기인했다. 그러나 이번 재보궐 선거에서는 이와는 반대로 정치적 비중이 높은 선거에서 더불어민주당 성향 유권자와 무당파 유권자의 적극적인 심판 심리가 선거의 중간평가적 성격을 강화하는 쪽으로 영향을 미쳤다. 아울러 야당을 지지하는 보수 성향 유권자의 결집 역시 선거의 중간평가적 성격 강화에 강한 영향을 미쳤음을 알 수 있다.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.169-196
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• 2024

카자흐스탄 하원에서 어떤 의원은 여러 차례 재당선되는 반면에, 어떤 의원은 초선에 그치는가? 카자흐스탄 정치 엘리트에 관한 기존연구들은 주로 출신 씨족이 엘리트의 임명/교체에 미치는 영향을 논의해왔다. 이러한 연구는 카자흐스탄의 후견주의 정치 구조의 특징을 설명하는데 기여했으나, 출신 씨족 이외에 정치적 배경과 엘리트 임명/교체의 관계에 대한 분석은 매우 빈약한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구의 목적은 카자흐스탄 제4대~제8대 하원을 중심으로 어떤 특성을 가진 의원이 연속성을 가지는지를 분석하는데 있다. 분석결과, 제4대, 제6대, 제7대 하원에서 소비에트 공산당 활동 경력을 가진 의원이 그렇지 않은 의원보다 평균 선수가 더 높았다. 그리고 제4대와 제5대 하원에서 누르오탄 소속 의원이 그렇지 않은 의원보다 평균 선수가 더 높았다. 반면에, 지역 정치 경력 여부에 따른 평균 선수의 차이는 발견되지 않았고, 엘리트 유형별 평균 선수의 차이는 제6대 하원에서만 일부 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 권위주의 국가인 카자흐스탄에서 의회가 체제를 공고히 하는 수단으로 활용된다는 점에서, 대통령의 의회 지배 전략이 반영된 산물이라고 할 수 있다. 본 연구의 의의는 최초로 카자흐스탄 하원에서 누가 정치적 생존을 지속하는지를 경험적으로 증명했다는데 있다.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제57권
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• pp.3-34
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• 2013

In the international sales contract, long-term contracts often face hardship in fulfilling the original contract terms by relevant parties due to rapid change and uncertainty of political and economic circumstance. In this case, party who faces hardship of fulfillment terminates contract or demands adaptation to contract condition but if opponent doesn't accept this, it proceeds to commercial dispute needing legal interpretation. Generally it is wise to set forth governing law in contract between parties in the case of international contract, for legal stability. One of universal governing law which relevant parties select by agreement to solve economical hardship of fulfillment is PICC. PICC defines the hardship in detail for renegotiation on following hardship of fulfillment unexpected. In the case of failing renegotiation, Court(arbitral tribunal) conducts termination to contract or adaptation to contract condition through arbitration or mediation. In conclusion, when signing international long-term contract, it is desirous to handle dispute effectively by inserting provisions which can deal with economical hardship in contract or defining PICC as governing law in the case of hardship incurred. It is because it is realistic to handle dispute smoothly to the extent that both parties can be satisfied in the case of hardship incurred, though international contract should be fulfilled.

• 한일민족문제연구
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• 제35호
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• pp.107-144
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• 2018

This paper summarizes the genealogy of post-war Zainichi magazines in Japan until 1959 and examines their meaning in the context of magazine history in Japan. The purpose of this paper is to prepare the framework to view characteristics of Zainichi magazines in Japan after the war until the present from a continuous and comprehensive perspective. Zainichi, who were left behind in Japan after the war began to project diverse aspects of their lives onto magazines. Despite the poor publishing environment, censorship of GHQ, shortage of writers and financial limitations, the Zainichi society did not give up the public sphere of magazines. The confusion in this time period acted as an element to expose limitations of Zainichi magazines in Japan. Most of magazines published in 1940s and 50s had to focus on political propaganda within the political frame, and many of such magazines were only published for a short term. In other words, it is ambiguous to define the majority of them as 'magazines' and a considerable number of them cannot even confirm the existence, making it difficult to examine the whole picture of magazines from this period. However, recently excavated materials indicate that most of Zainichi magazines in Japan attempted to reflect the reality of the Zainichi society in various ways, though they were confined in the political frame. The process in which language of magazines was changed from Korean language to Japanese and then again to Korean language suggests that Zainichi magazines in Japan tried to consistently express their existence in 'ethnicity,' 'homeland' and beyond, mediated by 'politics' and 'culture.' Moreover, the experience of seeking for the possibility of Zainichi culture in Japan from the flow of cultural movements in Japan during 1950s is an experience of seeking for a popular 'expression' that overcomes the political conflict of homeland. This reveals the diversity the Zainichi society to occur afterwards. A more precise study on individual magazines published during this period would be necessary in the future.

• 정보관리학회지
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.1-22
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• 2020

공동발의 네트워크는 법안 공동발의로 형성되는 국회의원 간의 관계를 통해 국회 입법과정을 보여준다. 본 연구는 제19대 국회 임기기간 중 발의된 도서관법안을 중심으로 공동발의 네트워크 분석과 국회의원 액터의 중심성 분석 및 키워드 중심 네트워크의 서브그룹 분석을 실시하였다. 연구결과, 도서관법안 공동발의 네트워크는 정당에 따라 분절된 모습을 보였으며, 다른 소속 정당 의원과 근접한 거리에 위치하면서 매개적 역할을 수행하는 의원들이 네트워크에서 중요한 영향력을 미치고 있었다. 키워드중심 네트워크로 재구조화할 경우, 다른 정당 소속 의원들이 동일한 키워드를 공유하면서 서브그룹을 형성함에 따라 정당으로 분절된 네트워크 구조가 개선되는 모습을 보였다. 연구결과를 토대로, 도서관계 입법활동 활성화를 위해서는 정당 간 매개적 역할을 하는 의원들을 중심으로 도서관 법안이 아닌 주요 키워드를 중심으로 정책이슈를 확산하고 공유하는 전략이 필요하다는 점을 제시하였다.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.111-141
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• 2018

By the middle of 2018 there are signs of China's entry into a new period of development, characterized by a change in the old model: "market reforms-inner-party democratization - moderate foreign policy" to another: "market reforms - Xi Jinping personality cult - offensive foreign policy." This model contains the risks of arising of the contradiction between economic freedom and political-ideological rigidity which can lead to destabilization of the political life. However, in the current positive economic dynamics, these risks may come out, rather, in the medium and long term. Today, the political situation in China remains stable - despite growing dissatisfaction in scientific expert and educational circles due to increased control over the intellectual sphere by the authorities. The need for a new redistribution of power between central and provincial authorities could potentially disrupt political stability in the medium term, but, at the moment, is not a critical negative factor. The economic situation is positive-stable. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in China's GDP in 2018 at 6.5%. At the same time, there are negative expectations in connection with the Sino-US and potentially Sino-European "trade war". In the Chinese foreign policy, as a response to Western pressure, China increasingly uses the Russian direction of its diplomacy in the expanded version of Russia + SCO. The nuance here is seen in China's adjusted approach to the SCO: first of all, not as a mechanism for cooperation with Russia, but as an organization that allows using Russia's potential for pressure on the US in the Sino-US strategic rivalry. In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy will continue to develop steadily, albeit with unresolved traditional problems (debts of provinces and state-owned enterprises, ineffective state sector, risks on the financial and real estate market). In politics, discontent with the cult of Xi will accumulate, but without real threats to its power. Weakening in economic opposition between China and the United States is possible due to Beijing's search for compromises on tariffs, intellectual property, trade deficit. To find such trade-offs, Xi will use the so-called. "Personal diplomacy" of direct contacts with Trump.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.223-258
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• 2022

The 2018 local elections completely upended the composition of Busan's city council, with the council membership changing from being solidly and consistently conservative to being over 80% liberal. What explains this anomalous outcome? While existing literature suggests the outcome of the 2018 city council elections was the consequence of a combination of structural and strategic factors, such as the decline of regional voting, we argue that the individual-level evaluation of President Moon Jae-in is one of the primary factors driving this result. Although coattails effects are commonly considered in concurrent national legislative elections, the Presidentialized and nationalized politics of Korea makes it possible for Presidential elections to affect local elections as well. We assess our explanation through an analysis of repeated cross-sectional survey data collected just before the 2018 local elections. The results of the analysis show that support for the Democratic Party is very strongly predicted by individual-level evaluation of President Moon. When considered in the context of the timing of presidential and local elections, the results suggest that Presidential coattail effects are capable of destabilizing established political patterns, such as regional voting, if perhaps only in a sporadic and idiosyncratic fashion, depending on whether or not local elections are held early on in a President's term.