• Title/Summary/Keyword: Poisson regression

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The relationship between fatal occupational injury rate and socio-economic indicators in Korea (한국의 업무상 사망률과 사회경제적 지표와의 관련성)

  • Lee, Won-Cheol;Kim, Soo-Geun;Ahn, Hong-Yup;Yi, Kwan-Hyung;Lee, Eun-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.168-174
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    • 2010
  • South Korea's industrial injuries are decreasing overall in the last 32 years. Nevertheless, the fatal occupational injury rate is still higher than in developed countries. This study was conducted to help prevention strategies of occupational injuries for the Republic of Korea. Fatal occupational injury rates were obtained from "Industrial Accident Analysis"of the Korean Ministry of Labor. Poisson regression was used to assess time trends. Socioeconomic indicators were obtained from the Korea Labor Institute and the Statistics Korea. Fatal occupational injury rates were adjusted by year, and Pearson correlation analysis was used to assess the relationship between the socio-economic indicators and occupational injuries. In 1975, fatal occupational injury rate was 54.8 per 100,000 workers. With somewhat up and down, it was decreased to 21.0 in 2006. An annual rate of change for the years 1975-2006 was - 1.83%, and for the years 2002-2006 was -5.02%. As economic growth rate, paricipation rate for the age less than 25 and hours of work per week or year increased, fatal occupational injury rate also increased. Conversely, as GDP per capita, paricipation rate or employment rate for female, paricipation rate for the age 25 or more, hourly compensation costs for production workers and services output as percent of GDP increased, fatal occupational injury rate decreased. By the development of safety techniques and the adoption of more legislative constraints, developed economy reduce occupational injuries. Conversely, economic growth may raise occupational injuries. Therefore, prevention strategies are needed to manage both of them. We need to make an effort to prevent occupational injuries due to not only sexual differences, but also job differences between male and female. Preventive strategies are needed to consider the characteristics of younger workers. Addition to wage, other appropriate variables for work condition should be considered together. Extending work hours is need to be regulated with systemic methods.

Changes in Mortality Inequality in Relation to the South Korean Economic Crisis: Use of Area-based Socioeconomic Position (경제위기에 따른 사망률 불평등의 변화: 지역의 사회경제적 위치 지표의 활용)

  • Yun, Sung-Cheol;Hwang, In-A;Lee, Moo-Song;Lee, Sang-Il;Jo, Min-Woo;Lee, Min-Jung;Khang, Young-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.359-365
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    • 2005
  • Objectives : An abrupt economic decline may widen the socioeconomic differences in health between the advantaged and disadvantaged in a society. The aim of this study was to examine whether the South Korean economic crisis of 1997-98 affected the socioeconomic inequality from all-causes and from cause-specific mortality between 1995 and 2001. Methods : Population denominators were obtained from the registration population data, with the number of death (numerators) calculated from raw death certificate data. The indicator used to assess the geographic socioeconomic position was the per capita regional tax revenue. Administrative districts (Si-Gun-Gu) were ranked according to this socioeconomic measure, and divided into equal population size quintiles on the basis of this ranking. The sex- and 5-year age-specific numbers of the population and deaths were used to compute the sex- and age-adjusted mortality rates (via direct standardization method), standardized mortality ratios (via indirect standardization methods) and relative indices of inequality (RII) (via Poisson regression). Results : Geographic inequalities from all-causes of mortality, as measured by RII, did not increase as a result of the economic crisis (from 1998-2001). This was true for both sexes and all age groups. However, the cause-specific analyses showed that socioeconomic inequalities in mortalities from external causes were affected by South Korean economic crisis. For males, the RIIs for mortalities from transport accidents and intentional self-harm increased between 1995 and 2001. For females, the RII for mortality from intentional self-harm increased during the same period. Conclusions : The South Korean economic crisis widened the geographic inequality in mortalities from major external causes. This increased inequality requires social discourse and counter policies with respect to the rising health inequalities in the South Korean society.

Characteristics of Geometric Conditions Affecting Freeway Traffic Safety at Nighttime, Sunrise, and Sunset (야간 및 일출몰 시간대 교통안전에 영향을 미치는 고속도로 기하구조 특성분석)

  • Hong, Sung-Min;Kim, Joon-Ki;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2012
  • Driver's capability of identifying the change in freeway alignments and environments is one of important factors associated with traffic safety on freeways. In particular, driver's visibility and recognition capability are highly dependent on the altitude of the sun by sunset, sunrise, and nighttime. The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of geometric conditions affecting crash occurrences at sunset, sunrise, and nighttime. Poisson and negative binomial regressions were adopted to predict freeway crash frequency in this study. Freeway crash data during 2007~2010 were used for developing the crash frequency models. A set of variables representing the characteristics of geometric conditions were identified as significant ones affecting crash occurrences. The results of this study would be useful in deriving effective countermeasures for preventing traffic crashes that mainly occur at sunset, sunrise, and nighttime on freeways.

Usability of a smartphone food picture app for assisting 24-hour dietary recall: a pilot study

  • Hongu, Nobuko;Pope, Benjamin T.;Bilgic, Pelin;Orr, Barron J.;Suzuki, Asuka;Kim, Angela Sarah;Merchant, Nirav C.;Roe, Denise J.
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.207-212
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    • 2015
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Recaller app was developed to help individuals record their food intakes. This pilot study evaluated the usability of this new food picture application (app), which operates on a smartphone with an embedded camera and Internet capability. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Adults aged 19 to 28 years (23 males and 22 females) were assigned to use the Recaller app on six designated, nonconsecutive days in order to capture an image of each meal and snack before and after eating. The images were automatically time-stamped and uploaded by the app to the Recaller website. A trained nutritionist administered a 24-hour dietary recall interview 1 day after food images were taken. Participants' opinions of the Recaller app and its usability were determined by a follow-up survey. As an evaluation indicator of usability, the number of images taken was analyzed and multivariate Poisson regression used to model the factors determining the number of images sent. RESULTS: A total of 3,315 food images were uploaded throughout the study period. The median number of images taken per day was nine for males and 13 for females. The survey showed that the Recaller app was easy to use, and 50% of the participants would consider using the app daily. Predictors of a higher number of images were as follows: greater interval (hours) between the first and last food images sent, weekend, and female. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this pilot study provide valuable information for understanding the usability of the Recaller smartphone food picture app as well as other similarly designed apps. This study provides a model for assisting nutrition educators in their collection of food intake information by using tools available on smartphones. This innovative approach has the potential to improve recall of foods eaten and monitoring of dietary intake in nutritional studies.

Developing the Accurate Method of Test Data Assessment with Changing Reliability Growth Rate and the Effect Evaluation for Complex and Repairable Products

  • So, Young-Kug;Ryu, Byeong-Jin
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.90-100
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    • 2015
  • Reliability growth rate (or reliability growth curve slope) have the two cases of trend as a constant or changing one during the reliability growth testing. The changing case is very common situation. The reasons of reliability growth rate changing are that the failures to follow the NHPP (None-Homogeneous Poisson Process), and the solutions implemented during test to break out other problems or not to take out all of the root cause permanently. If the changing were big, the "Goodness of Fit (GOF)" of reliability growth curve to test data would be very low and then reduce the accuracy of assessing result with test data. In this research, we are using Duane model and AMSAA model for assessing test data and projecting the reliability level of complex and repairable system as like construction equipment and vehicle. In case of no changing in reliability growth rate, it is reasonable for reliability engineer to implement the original Duane model (1964) and Crow-AMSAA model (1975) for the assessment and projection activity. However, in case of reliability growth rate changing, it is necessary to find the method to increase the "GOF" of reliability growth curves to test data. To increase GOF of reliability growth curves, it is necessary to find the proper parameter calculation method of interesting reliability growth models that are applicable to the situation of reliability growth rate changing. Since the Duane and AMSAA models have a characteristic to get more strong influence from the initial test (or failure) data than the latest one, the both models have a limitation to contain the latest test data information that is more important and better to assess test data in view of accuracy, especially when the reliability growth rate changing. The main objective of this research is to find the parameter calculation method to reflect the latest test data in the case of reliability growth rate changing. According to my experience in vehicle and construction equipment developments over 18 years, over the 90% in the total development cases are with such changing during the developing test. The objective of this research was to develop the newly assessing method and the process for GOF level increasing in case of reliability growth rate changing that would contribute to achieve more accurate assessing and projecting result. We also developed the new evaluation method for GOF that are applicable to the both models as Duane and AMSAA, so it is possible to compare it between models and check the effectiveness of new parameter calculation methods in any interesting situation. These research results can reduce the decision error for development process and business control with the accurately assessing and projecting result.

The Economic and Social Implication of Count Regression Models for Married Women's Completed Fertility in Korea (우리나라 가구의 자녀수 결정요인에 관한 Count 모형 분석 및 경제적 함의)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sook
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.107-135
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    • 2007
  • This paper uses a static Gamma count model, a traditional hurdle model and an endogenous switching Poisson model, respectively for determining married women's completed fertility rates in Korea. This paper analyzes the impact of household income, women's wage and education, and women's job market participation on the number of children of married women above age 40 and on the expected number of children of women aged below 40. The paper shows that a household income significantly increases the number of children for at least women aged above 40, however, this income effect is disappearing for younger generation. The empirical model suggests that women having a job tend to have fewer children for a group 39 years old and below and find that there is an endogeneity problem between child birth and labor force participation, too. The education level of married women gives a positive effect for giving a birth, itself, while it gives a negative impact on the number of children. Based on the empirical results, it concludes that Becker's Quantity-Quality theory works for Korea, too.

Epidemiology of Female Reproductive Cancers in Iran: Results of the Gholestan Population-Based Cancer Registry

  • Taheri, NegarSadat;Fazel, Abdolreza;Mahmoodzadeh, Habibollah;Omranpour, Ramesh;Roshandel, Gholamreza;Gharahjeh, Saeedeh;Sedaghat, Seyed Mehdi;Poorabbasi, Mohammad;Moghaddami, Abbas;Semnani, Shahryar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.20
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    • pp.8779-8782
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    • 2014
  • Background: Malignancies of the female reproductive tract are estimated to be the third most common group of cancers in women. Objectives: We here aimed to present their epidemiological features in Golestan province located in Northeast of Iran. Materials and Methods: Data on primary female reproductive cancers diagnosed between 2004-2010 were obtained from Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). CanReg-4 and SPSS software were used for data entry and analysis. Age standardized incidence rates (ASR) (per 100,000 person-years) were calculated using the world standard population. Poisson regression analysis was used to compare incidence rates. P-values of less than 0.05 were considered as significant. Results: A total of 6,064 cancer cases were registered in Golestan females in the GPCR during 2004-2010, of which 652 cases (11%) were female reproductive cancers. Cancers of the ovary (ASR=6.03) and cervix (ASR=4.97) were the most common. We found significant higher rates in females living in cities than in villages. Our results showed a rapid increase in age specific incidence rates of female reproductive cancers at the age of 30 years. Conclusions: We found significant higher rates of female reproductive cancers among residents of cities than villages. Differences in the prevalence of risk factors including reproductive behavior between the two populations may partly explain such diversity. Our results also showed a rapid increase in incidence rates of these cancers in young age females. Further studies are warranted to determine risk factors of female reproductive cancers in our population.

Potential influence of κ-casein and β-lactoglobulin genes in genetic association studies of milk quality traits

  • Zepeda-Batista, Jose Luis;Saavedra-Jimenez, Luis Antonio;Ruiz-Flores, Agustin;Nunez-Dominguez, Rafael;Ramirez-Valverde, Rodolfo
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.1684-1688
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    • 2017
  • Objective: From a review of published information on genetic association studies, a meta-analysis was conducted to determine the influence of the genes ${\kappa}-casein$ (CSN3) and ${\beta}-lactoglobulin$ (LGB) on milk yield traits in Holstein, Jersey, Brown Swiss, and Fleckvieh. Methods: The GLIMMIX procedure was used to analyze milk production and percentage of protein and fat in milk. Models included the main effects and all their possible two-way interactions; not estimable effects and non-significant (p>0.05) two-way interactions were dropped from the models. The three traits analyzed used Poisson distribution and a log link function and were determined with the Interactive Data Analysis of SAS software. Least square means and multiple mean comparisons were obtained and performed for significant main effects and their interactions (p<0.0255). Results: Interaction of breed by gene showed that Holstein and Fleckvieh were the breeds on which CSN3 ($6.01%{\pm}0.19%$ and $5.98%{\pm}0.22%$), and LGB ($6.02%{\pm}0.19%$ and $5.70%{\pm}0.22%$) have the greatest influence. Interaction of breed by genotype nested in the analyzed gene indicated that Holstein and Jersey showed greater influence of the CSN3 AA genotype, $6.04%{\pm}0.22%$ and $5.59%{\pm}0.31%$ than the other genotypes, while LGB AA genotype had the largest influence on the traits analyzed, $6.05%{\pm}0.20%$ and $5.60%{\pm}0.19%$, respectively. Furthermore, interaction of type of statistical model by genotype nested in the analyzed gene indicated that CSN3 and LGB genes had similar behavior, maintaining a difference of more than 7% across analyzed genotypes. These results could indicate that both Holstein and Jersey have had lower substitution allele effect in selection programs that include CSN3 and LGB genes than Brown Swiss and Fleckvieh. Conclusion: Breed determined which genotypes had the greatest association with analyzed traits. The mixed model based in Bayesian or Ridge Regression was the best alternative to analyze CSN3 and LGB gene effects on milk yield and protein and fat percentages.

Development of the Expected Safety Performance Models for Rural Highway Segments (지방부 국도의 사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Ju-Taek;Kim, Do-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Min
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.131-143
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    • 2012
  • The past researches on roadway segment safety estimation focused on intersections, which are the primary traffic accident regions. The past researches on roadway segments, However, analyzed the effects of certain factors on the traffic accident occurrence rate by organizing the individual geometric structures of the roads, and there is still a dearth of researches on the development of a traffic accident estimation model for rural roadway segments. Therefore, this research focused on rural two-lane and multilane roadway segments and developed traffic accident estimation models through the application of statistical techniques. This is required to explain such high frequency of zero counts in the traffic accident data. In this research, it was found that the Hurdle model is more suitable than the Poisson or negative binomial-regression model for explaining the excess zeros case. In addition, main variables were chosen to estimate their effects on traffic accident occurrence at rural roadway segments, and the safety at such rural roadway segments was estimated. In this research, it was assumed that there are different factors that affect the safety at two-way lane and multilane roadway segments, and a traffic accident estimation model was developed by dividing the two-way lane and multilane roadway segments.

Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Models Considering Variations of the Future Volume in Urban Areas (신설 도시부 도로의 장래 교통량 변화를 반영한 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Soo-Beom;Hong, Da-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2005
  • The current traffic accident reduction procedure in economic feasibility study does not consider the characteristics of road and V/C ratio. For solving this problem, this paper suggests methods to be able to evaluate safety of each road in construction and improvement through developing accident Prediction model in reflecting V/C ratio Per road types and traffic characters. In this paper as primary process, model is made by tke object of urban roads. Most of all, factor effecting on accident relying on road types is selected. At this point, selecting criteria chooses data obtained from road planning procedure, traffic volume, existence or non-existence of median barrier, and the number of crossing point, of connecting road. and of traffic signals. As a result of analyzing between each factor and accident. all appear to have relatives at a significant level of statistics. In this research, models are classified as 4-categorized classes according to roads and V/C ratio and each of models draws accident predicting model through Poisson regression along with verifying real situation data. The results of verifying models come out relatively satisfactory estimation against real traffic data. In this paper, traffic accident prediction is possible caused by road's physical characters by developing accident predicting model per road types resulted in V/C ratio and this result is inferred to be used on predicting accident cost when road construction and improvement are performed. Because data using this paper are limited in only province of Jeollabuk-Do, this paper has a limitation of revealing standards of all regions (nation).