• Title/Summary/Keyword: Point estimation

Search Result 2,102, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Estimation of Precipitable Water from the GMS-5 Split Window Data (GMS-5 Split Window 자료를 이용한 가강수량 산출)

  • 손승희;정효상;김금란;이정환
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.53-68
    • /
    • 1998
  • Observation of hydrometeors' behavior in the atmosphere is important to understand weather and climate. By conventional observations, we can get the distribution of water vapor at limited number of points on the earth. In this study, the precipitable water has been estimated from the split window channel data on GMS-5 based upon the technique developed by Chesters et al.(1983). To retrieve the precipitable water, water vapor absorption parameter depending on filter function of sensor has been derived using the regression analysis between the split window channel data and the radiosonde data observed at Osan, Pohang, Kwangiu and Cheju staions for 4 months. The air temperature of 700 hPa from the Global Spectral Model of Korea Meteorological Administration (GSM/KMA) has been used as mean air temperature for single layer radiation model. The retrieved precipitable water for the period from August 1996 through December 1996 are compared to radiosonde data. It is shown that the root mean square differences between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals range from 0.65 g/$cm^2$ to 1.09 g/$cm^2$ with correlation coefficient of 0.46 on hourly basis. The monthly distribution of precipitable water from GMS-5 shows almost good representation in large scale. Precipitable water is produced 4 times a day at Korea Meteorological Administration in the form of grid point data with 0.5 degree lat./lon. resolution. The data can be used in the objective analysis for numerical weather prediction and to increase the accuracy of humidity analysis especially under clear sky condition. And also, the data is a useful complement to existing data set for climatological research. But it is necessary to get higher correlation between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals for operational applications.

A Study on the Determinants of Land Price in a New Town (신도시 택지개발사업지역에서 토지가격 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Tae Yun
    • Korea Real Estate Review
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.79-90
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate the pricing factors of residential lands in new cities by estimating the pricing model of residential lands. For this purpose, hedonic equations for each quantile of the conditional distribution of land prices were estimated using quantile regression methods and the sale price date of Jangyu New Town in Gimhae. In this study, a quantile regression method that models the relation between a set of explanatory variables and each quantile of land price was adopted. As a result, the differences in the effects of the characteristics by price quantile were confirmed. The number of years that elapsed after the completion of land construction is the quadratic effect in the model because its impact may give rise to a non-linear price pattern. Age appears to decrease the price until certain years after the construction, and increases the price afterward. In the estimation of the quantile regression, land age appears to have a statistically significant impact on land price at the traditional level, and the turning point appears to be shorter for the low quantiles than for the higher quantiles. The positive effects of the use of land for commercial and residential purposes were found to be the biggest. Land demand is preferred if there are more than two roads on the ground. In this case, the amount of sunshine will improve. It appears that the shape of a square wave is preferred to a free-looking land. This is because the square land is favorable for development. The variables of the land used for commercial and residential purposes have a greater impact on low-priced residential lands. This is because such lands tend to be mostly used for rental housing and have different characteristics from residential houses. Residential land prices have different characteristics depending on the price level, and it is necessary to consider this in the evaluation of the collateral value and the drafting of real estate policy.

Phytohydrographic Plankton Studies during the First Half of the 20th Century in Korean Neritic Seas (20세기 전반 한국 근해역 플랑크톤의 식물수문학적 연구)

  • PARK, JONG WOO;KIM, HYUNG SEOP;YIH, WONHO
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
    • /
    • v.24 no.3
    • /
    • pp.483-494
    • /
    • 2019
  • From the cosmopolitan superiority of the as the first world map completed in 1402 with surprisingly detailed images and contents on the Africa Continent it is reasonable to think that the Koreans in early fifteen century were already with highly up-to-date perspectives on the universe and world history and cultures. However, some 490 year later the first phytohydrographic plankton investigation in the neritic seas of Korea was performed by a Japanese company with sampling points covering from Tokyo Bay through Jeju neritic waters to Shanghai estuary, which was in turn preceded by the first oceanographic investigation other than the simple mapping Koreans seas by using two French sailboats. The first phytohydrographic plankton investigation in Korean seas were behind the world first oceanic plankton exploration, the German Plankton Expedition, by 25 years. Starting from the oceanographic investigation including phytohydrographic samplings in the whole Yellow Sea in 1915 the full-scale phytohydrographic plankton studies were tried in Korean seas which is well represented by the 1921 oceanographic investigation on the whole East Sea with 80 sampling stations. In 1932 two separate oceanographic investigations followed, one in the East Sea where 78 stations from Busan to southern Sakhalin Island were simultaneously visited by 50 research vessels for the physical, chemical, and biological oceanographic studies, and the other one in southern coast and western East Sea of Korea where ocean current observation as well as plankton sampling were made in 120 stations to understand the relationship between the ocean current and plankton distribution in the region. In 1933-1934 more intensified investigations on phytohydrography were carried out particularly in the East Sea as an integral part of the basic marine ecosystem studies for the Myeong-Tae (Alaska Pollock) resources estimation. Scientists' attitude for the marine investigation and research activities seemed to be almost unchanging even to the year 1943, which could be reflected by the fact that publication of the results from the investigations performed in 1945 were finally done in 1967 at Tokyo. Some 70 years later from the mid-twenty century we might be standing on the turning-point of "need to be prepared" for the new era of changing paradigm by reviewing, archiving, and analyzing the prior information big data from the previous ocean observation and biohydrographic investigations. At the same time each professional societies for the above mentioned sciences might trigger a continuous project to reorganize and update the records on related bibliography and its history every 30 years.

Comparative Study on the Dancheong(丹靑) of Buddhist Temples in Jeolla Region focused on the Dancheong of the main building of Mihwangsa Buddhist Temple at Haenam(海南) (전라도지역 사찰단청(寺刹丹靑)의 비교 연구 해남 미황사(美黃寺) 대웅전(大雄殿) 단청을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Su Yee
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
    • /
    • v.42 no.4
    • /
    • pp.152-171
    • /
    • 2009
  • The Dancheong(丹靑) of the main building of Mihwangsa Buddhist Temple(美黃寺) in Haenam(海南) is the leading work of the Jeolla Dancheong style, which was created in the 18th century and has been passed down to the early modern days, and boasts its excellence and originality. On the outside, one can only see the traces of the Dancheong due to the colors that fell off and deteriorated severely. On the inside, however, the general Dancheong pattern is accompanied by the painting of 1,000 Buddhas(千佛圖), which is hardly found in other Buddhist temples, and the Arahan painting, which is truly magnificent in technique and can pass as an independent painting. The Dancheong also has unique methodological characteristics that can't be found in other Dancheong works such as the painting and attaching technique. The Dancheong inside is estimated to have been created in 1754 considering the records of "Dalmasan Mihwangsasa Daebeopdang Jungsusangryangmun(達摩山美黃寺大法堂重修上樑文)", the calligraphical writings of "Mudeungsanindanhwakya(無等山人丹?也)"and "Geonryungshipgu(乾隆十九)" left in the Jungryang, and the style characteristics reflected in the Dancheong patterns and the painting of 1,000 Buddhas. The fact that there are no traces of re-Dancheong also supports the estimation that the Dancheong was created in the absolute age of 1754. The absolute age will be the reference of deciding the chronological years of Dancheong patterns and be helpful in examining the characteristics and changes by the periods. There were certain style characteristics in Dancheong by the periods and regions. The Dancheong of Jeolla region also had its own style, which includes the tendency of finishing with two- or three-fold green belts without giving meokdanggi to the meoricho and the huge jar decoration of huigol. Treating the baetbadak of all materials, whether it's Geumdancheong or morodancheong, with lines of certain thickness and colors is another style of Jeolla Dancheong from the 18th to the 20th century. The Dancheong of the Geukrakbojeon(極樂寶殿) of Cheoneunsa Buddhist Temple and Daewoongbojeon(大雄寶殿) of Naesosa Buddhist Temple in Jeolla is especially noteworthy in that it bears similar patterns and techniques to that of the main building of Mihwangsa Buddhist Temple in addition to the characteristics mentioned above. The Dancheong of Mihwangsa Buddhist Temple must have exerted so great influences on that of the two temples that it's called "the style of Mihwangsa Buddhist Temple."When adopting a broader point of view, it can be classified as one of the Dancheong styles of Jeolla. The common icons and techniques found in the Dancheong of Mihwangsa, Cheoneunsa, and Naesosa Buddhist Temple provide some clues about the influential relationships among painters of the days. They may have been created by the painters of the same school or the painters affected by those who created the Dancheong of Mihwangsa Buddhist Temple.

Estimation of Monthly Dissolved Inorganic Carbon Inventory in the Southeastern Yellow Sea (황해 남동부 해역의 월별 용존무기탄소 재고 추정)

  • KIM, SO-YUN;LEE, TONGSUP
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.194-210
    • /
    • 2022
  • The monthly inventory of dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and its fluxes were simulated using a box-model for the southeastern Yellow Sea, bordering the northern East China Sea. The monthly CT data was constructed by combining the observed data representing four seasons with the data adopted from the recent publications. A 2-box-model of the surface and deep layers was used, assuming that the annual CT inventory was at the steady state and its fluctuations due to the advection in the surface box were negligible. Results of the simulation point out that the monthly CT inventory variation between the surface and deep box was driven primarily by the mixing flux due to the variation of the mixed layer depth, on the scale of -40~35 mol C m-2 month-1. The air to sea CO2 flux was about 2 mol C m-2 yr-1 and was lower than 1/100 of the mixing flux. The biological pump flux estimated magnitude, in the range of 4-5 mol C m-2 yr-1, is about half the in situ measurement value reported. The CT inventory of the water column was maximum in April, when mixing by cooling ceases, and decreases slightly throughout the stratified period. Therefore, the total CT inventory is larger in the stratified period than that of the mixing period. In order to maintain a steady state, 18 mol C m-2 yr-1 (= 216 g C m-2 yr-1), the difference between the maximum and minimum monthly CT inventory, should be transported out to the East China Sea. Extrapolating this flux over the entire southern Yellow Sea boundary yields 4 × 109 g C yr-1. Conceptually this flux is equivalent to the proposed continental shelf pump. Since this flux must go through the vast shelf area of the East China Sea before it joins the open Pacific waters the actual contribution as a continental shelf pump would be significantly lower than reported value. Although errors accompanied the simple box model simulation imposed by the paucity of data and assumptions are considerably large, nevertheless it was possible to constrain the relative contribution among the major fluxes and their range that caused the CT inventory variations, and was able to suggest recommendations for the future studies.

Usefulness of volumetric BMD measurement by using low dose CT image acquired on L-spine Bone SPECT/CT (L-spine Bone SPECT/CT에서 획득된 저선량 CT 영상을 이용한 용적 골밀도 결과의 유용성)

  • Hyunsoo Ko;Soonki Park;Eunhye Kim;Jongsook Choi;Wooyoung Jung;Dongyun Lee
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.99-109
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose: CT scan makes up for the weak point of the nuclear medicine image having a low resolution and also were used for attenuation correction on image reconstruction. Recently, many studies try to make use of CT images additionally, one of them is to measure the bone mineral density(BMD) using Quantitative CT(QCT) software. BMD exams are performed to scan lumbar and femur with DXA(Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry) in order to diagnose bone disease such as osteopenia, osteoporosis. The purpose of this study is to identify the usefulness of QCT_BMD analyzed with low dose CT images on L-spine Bone SPECT/CT comparing with DXA_BMD. Materials and Methods: Fifty five women over 50 years old (mean 66.4 ± 9.1) who took the both examinations(L-spine Bone SPECT/CT with SIEMENS Intevo 16 and DXA scan with GE Lunar prodigy advance) within 90 days from April 2017 to July 2022, BMD, T-score and disease classification were analyzed. Three-dimensional BMD was analyzed with low dose CT images acquired on L-spine Bone SPECT/CT scan on Mindways QCT PROTM software and two-dimensional BMD was analyzed on DXA scan. Basically, Lumbar 1-4 were analyzed and the patients who has lesion or spine implants on L-spine were excluded for this study. Pearson's correlation analysis was performed in BMD and T-score, chi-square test was performed in disease classification between QCT and DXA. Results: On 55 patients, the minimum of QCT_BMD was 18.10, maximum was 166.50, average was 82.71 ± 31.5 mg/cm3. And the minimum of DXA-BMD was 0.540, maximum was 1.302, average was 0.902 ± 0.201 g/cm2, respectively. The result shows a strong statistical correlation between QCT_BMD and DXA_BMD(p<0.001, r=0.76). The minimum of QCT_T-score was -5.7, maximum was -0.1, average was -3.2 ± 1.3 and the minimum of DXA_T-score was -5.0, maximum was 1.7, average was -2.0 ± 1.3, respectively. The result shows a statistical correlation between QCT T-score and DXA T-score (p<0.001, r=0.66). On the disease classification, normal was 5, osteopenia was 25, osteoporosis was 25 in QCT and normal was 10, osteopenia was 25, osteoporosis was 20 in DXA. There was under-estimation of bone decrease relatively on DXA than QCT, but there was no significant differences statistically by chi-square test between QCT and DXA. Conclusion: Through this study, we could identify that the QCT measurement with low dose CT images QCT from L-Spine Bone SPECT/CT was reliable because of a strong statistical correlation between QCT_BMD and DXA_BMD. Bone SPECT/CT scan can provide three-dimensional information also BMD measurement with CT images. In the future, rather than various exams such as CT, BMD, Bone scan are performed, it will be possible to provide multipurpose information via only SPECT/CT scan. In addition, it will be very helpful clinically in the sense that we can provide a diagnosis of potential osteoporosis, especially in middle-aged patients.

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.19-32
    • /
    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Consumer Responses to Retailer's Location-based Mobile Shopping Service : Focusing on PAD Emotional State Model and Information Relevance (유통업체의 위치기반 모바일 쇼핑서비스 제공에 대한 소비자 반응 : PAD 감정모델과 정보의 상황관련성을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyun-Hwa;Moon, Hee-Kang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.63-92
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study investigated consumer intention to use a location-based mobile shopping service (LBMSS) that integrates cognitive and affective responses. Information relevancy was integrated into pleasure-arousal-dominance (PAD) emotional state model in the present study as a conceptual framework. The results of an online survey of 335 mobile phone users in the U.S. indicated the positive effects of arousal and information relevancy on pleasure. In addition, there was a significant relationship between pleasure and intention to use a LBMSS. However, the relationship between dominance and pleasure was not statistically significant. The results of the present study provides insight to retailers and marketers as to what factors they need to consider to implement location-based mobile shopping services to improve their business performance. Extended Abstract : Location aware technology has expanded the marketer's reach by reducing space and time between a consumer's receipt of advertising and purchase, offering real-time information and coupons to consumers in purchasing situations (Dickenger and Kleijnen, 2008; Malhotra and Malhotra, 2009). LBMSS increases the relevancy of SMS marketing by linking advertisements to a user's location (Bamba and Barnes, 2007; Malhotra and Malhotra, 2009). This study investigated consumer intention to use a location-based mobile shopping service (LBMSS) that integrates cognitive and affective response. The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship among information relevancy and affective variables and their effects on intention to use LBMSS. Thus, information relevancy was integrated into pleasure-arousal-dominance (PAD) model and generated the following hypotheses. Hypothesis 1. There will be a positive influence of arousal concerning LBMSS on pleasure in regard to LBMSS. Hypothesis 2. There will be a positive influence of dominance in LBMSS on pleasure in regard to LBMSS. Hypothesis 3. There will be a positive influence of information relevancy on pleasure in regard to LBMSS. Hypothesis 4. There will be a positive influence of pleasure about LBMSS on intention to use LBMSS. E-mail invitations were sent out to a randomly selected sample of three thousand consumers who are older than 18 years old and mobile phone owners, acquired from an independent marketing research company. An online survey technique was employed utilizing Dillman's (2000) online survey method and follow-ups. A total of 335 valid responses were used for the data analysis in the present study. Before the respondents answer any of the questions, they were told to read a document describing LBMSS. The document included definitions and examples of LBMSS provided by various service providers. After that, they were exposed to a scenario describing the participant as taking a saturday shopping trip to a mall and then receiving a short message from the mall. The short message included new product information and coupons for same day use at participating stores. They then completed a questionnaire containing various questions. To assess arousal, dominance, and pleasure, we adapted and modified scales used in the previous studies in the context of location-based mobile shopping service, each of the five items from Mehrabian and Russell (1974). A total of 15 items were measured on a seven-point bipolar scale. To measure information relevancy, four items were borrowed from Mason et al. (1995). Intention to use LBMSS was captured using two items developed by Blackwell, and Miniard (1995) and one items developed by the authors. Data analyses were conducted using SPSS 19.0 and LISREL 8.72. A total of usable 335 data were obtained after deleting the incomplete responses, which results in a response rate of 11.20%. A little over half of the respondents were male (53.9%) and approximately 60% of respondents were married (57.4%). The mean age of the sample was 29.44 years with a range from 19 to 60 years. In terms of the ethnicity there were European Americans (54.5%), Hispanic American (5.3%), African-American (3.6%), and Asian American (2.9%), respectively. The respondents were highly educated; close to 62.5% of participants in the study reported holding a college degree or its equivalent and 14.5% of the participants had graduate degree. The sample represents all income categories: less than $24,999 (10.8%), $25,000-$49,999 (28.34%), $50,000-$74,999 (13.8%), and $75,000 or more (10.23%). The respondents of the study indicated that they were employed in many occupations. Responses came from all 42 states in the U.S. To identify the dimensions of research constructs, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) using a varimax rotation was conducted. As indicated in table 1, these dimensions: arousal, dominance, relevancy, pleasure, and intention to use, suggested by the EFA, explained 82.29% of the total variance with factor loadings ranged from .74 to .89. As a next step, CFA was conducted to validate the dimensions that were identified from the exploratory factor analysis and to further refine the scale. Table 1 exhibits the results of measurement model analysis and revealed a chi-square of 202.13 with degree-of-freedom of 89 (p =.002), GFI of .93, AGFI = .89, CFI of .99, NFI of .98, which indicates of the evidence of a good model fit to the data (Bagozzi and Yi, 1998; Hair et al., 1998). As table 1 shows, reliability was estimated with Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability (CR) for all multi-item scales. All the values met evidence of satisfactory reliability in multi-item measure for alpha (>.91) and CR (>.80). In addition, we tested the convergent validity of the measure using average variance extracted (AVE) by following recommendations from Fornell and Larcker (1981). The AVE values for the model constructs ranged from .74 through .85, which are higher than the threshold suggested by Fornell and Larcker (1981). To examine discriminant validity of the measure, we again followed the recommendations from Fornell and Larcker (1981). The shared variances between constructs were smaller than the AVE of the research constructs and confirm discriminant validity of the measure. The causal model testing was conducted using LISREL 8.72 with a maximum-likelihood estimation method. Table 2 shows the results of the hypotheses testing. The results for the conceptual model revealed good overall fit for the proposed model. Chi-square was 342.00 (df = 92, p =.000), NFI was .97, NNFI was .97, GFI was .89, AGFI was .83, and RMSEA was .08. All paths in the proposed model received significant statistical support except H2. The paths from arousal to pleasure (H1: ${\ss}$=.70; t = 11.44), from information relevancy to intention to use (H3 ${\ss}$ =.12; t = 2.36), from information relevancy to pleasure (H4 ${\ss}$ =.15; t = 2.86), and pleasure to intention to use (H5: ${\ss}$=.54; t = 9.05) were significant. However, the path from dominance to pleasure was not supported. This study investigated consumer intention to use a location-based mobile shopping service (LBMSS) that integrates cognitive and affective responses. Information relevancy was integrated into pleasure-arousal-dominance (PAD) emotional state model as a conceptual framework. The results of the present study support previous studies indicating that emotional responses as well as cognitive responses have a strong impact on accepting new technology. The findings of this study suggest potential marketing strategies to mobile service developers and retailers who are considering the implementation of LBMSS. It would be rewarding to develop location-based mobile services that integrate information relevancy and which cause positive emotional responses.

  • PDF

Prediction of fertilizer demands up to the year of 2,000 from agronomic view points - Review and Discussion - (농경학적(農耕學的) 입장(立場)에서 본 서기(西紀) 2,000년(年)까지의 비료수요(肥料需要) 전망(展望) - 종합고찰(綜合考察) -)

  • Hong, Chong-Woon;Shin, Yong-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.9 no.3
    • /
    • pp.211-220
    • /
    • 1976
  • The objective of this paper is to summarize and disicuss the results of studies for the prediction of fertilizer demands up to the year of 2000, from the agromic biew points. 1. The approximated demands of fertilizers figured out from the view point of nutrient requirement and fertilizer efficiency of major crops are 1,162,000M/T (N;554,100 M/T, $P_2O_5$; 360,100 M/T and $K_2O$, 247,000 M/T) at 1980, 1,471,400 M/T (N: 694,800 M/T, $P_2O_5$;465,400M/T and $K_2O$ ;311,200 M/T) at 1990 and 1,764,00 M/T (N;812,500 M/T, $P_2O_5$; 592,300 M/T and $K_2O$;359,200 M/T) at 2000${\cdots}{\cdots}$ (Approximation I) 2. Upon the basis of approximation on the yield levels of major crops per unit area and on the expansion of arable land, the demands of fertilizers at the years of 1980, 1990 and 2000 are predicted as 1,149,300 M/T (N;603,700 M/T $P_2O_5$; 305,500 M/T and $K_2O$, 240,100 M/T) 1,551,100 M/T(N:814,700M/T, $P_2O_5$;412,300 M/T and $K_2O$;324,00 M/T) and 2,253,800 M/T (N;1,183,800M/T, $P_2O_5$; 586,400M/T and $K_2O$, 470,900 M/T), respectively${\cdots}{\cdots}$(Approximation II) 3. When the recent relationships between the increases in yeid of major crops and the amounts of fertilizers for those crops per unit area are brought into consideration for the estimation of future demands of fertilizers, the predicted demands at the years of 1980, 1990 and 2000 are 1,287.600 M/T (N;677,100 M/T, $P_2O_5$; 342,000 M/T, and $K_2O$;268,500 M/T), 2,085,600M/T (N;1,096,700 M/T, $P_2O_5$;533,900 M/T, and $K_2O$;435,000 M/T and 3,380,600 M/T (N;1,777,800M/T, $P_2O_5$;897,800M/T and $K_2O$;705,000M/T) respectively (Approximation III) 4. Approximation I will be closer estimate under such condition that only rice will maintain self suficiency and other food crops will be covered by domestic production by around 50 percent, which is not desirable situation. 5. When higher self suficiency leveles of major food crops are sought through the introduction of improved varieties and expansion of cropping area and arable land by increased land utilization and reclamation of hillside land and tidal land, the Approximations II and III will become close to reality, If improved fertilizers and improved method of fertilizer applications are widely applied at the farmers fields to increase the fertilizer efficiency the former will be closer figure, if not, the latter may be better estimates.

  • PDF

On the Bibliographies of Chinese Historical Books - Classifying and cataloguing system of six historical bibliographies - (중국의 사지서목에 대하여 -육사예문$\cdot$경적지의 분류 및 편목체재 비교를 중심으로-)

  • Kang Soon-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
    • /
    • v.24
    • /
    • pp.289-332
    • /
    • 1993
  • In china, six bibliographies of offical historical books are evaluated at the most important things among the systematically-editing bibliographies. These bibliographies would be usful to study the orign of classical sciences and their development, bibliographic research of Chinese classics, bibliographic judgement on genuine books, titles, authors, volumes. They could be refered to research into graving, correcting, and existence of ancient books. therefore, these bibliographies would be applied to estimation the phase of scientific and cultural development. The study of these bibliographies has been not yet made in Korea. This thesis lays its importance on the background of their appearance, their classification norms, organizing system of their catalogue, and comparison between their difference. 1. Editing and compiling of Chilyak (칠약) by Liu Chin (유흠) and official histories played an important role of entering an apperance of historical book's bibliographies. Chilyak has been lost. However, its classification and compiling system of classical books would be traced by Hansoyemunji(한서예문지) of which basic system is similar to Chilyak. It classified books according to their scientific characteristic. If a few books didn't have their own categories, they were combined by the circles parallel to the books' characteristic. With the books classified under the same scientific characteristic, they were again divided into the scientific schools or structures. It also arranged the same kinds of books according to the chronology. The some books wi th duplicate subjects were classified multiplely by their duplicate subject. 2. Ssu-ma Chon's (사마천) The Historical Records (Saki, 사기) and Pan Ku's (반고) The History of the Former Han Dynasty (Hanso, 한서) has also took effects on appearance of historical books' bibliographies. Covering overall history, Saki was structured by the five parts: The basic annals(본기), the chronological tables (표), the documents (서), the hereditary houses (세가), biographies (열전). The basic annals dealt with kings and courts' affairs according to the chronology. The chronological tables was the records of the annals. The documents described overall the social and cultural systems. The hereditary houses recorded courts' meritorious officials and public figures. The biographies showed exemplars of seventy peoples selected by their social status. Pan Ku(반구)'s The History of the Former Han Dynasty(한서) deserved to be called the prototype for the offical histories after Saki's (사기; The Historical Records) apperance. Although it modelled on Saki, it had set up its own cataloguing system. It was organized by four parts; the basic annals (본기), the chronological tables (표), treatises(지), biographies (열전). The documents in the Hanso(한서) was converted into treatises(지). The hereditary houses and biographies were merged. For the first time, the treatise with The Yemunji could operate function for historical bibliographies. 3. There were six historical bibliographies: Hansoyemunji(한서예문지), Susokyongjeokji (수서경적지), Kudangsokyongjeokji(구당서경적지), Shindangsoyemunji (신당서예문지), Songsayemunji (송사예문지), Myongsayemunji (명사예문지). 1) Modelling on Liu Chin's Chilyak except Chipryak(집략), Hansoyemunji divided the characteristic of the books and documents into six parts: Yukrye(육예), Cheja(제자), Shibu(시부), Pyongsoh(병서), Susul(수술), Pangki(방기). Under six parts, there were thirty eight orders in Hansoyemunji. To its own classification, Hansoyemunji applied the Chilyak's theory of classification that the books or documents were managed according to characteristic of sciences, the difference of schools, the organization of sentences. However the overlapped subjects were deleted and unified into one. The books included into an unsuitable subject were corrected and converted into another. The Hansoyemunji consisted of main preface (Taesoh 대서), minor preface (Sosoh 소서) , the general preface (Chongso 총서). It also recorded the introduction of books and documents, the origin of sciences, the outline of subjects, and the establishment of orders. The books classified by the subject had title, author, and volumes. They were rearranged by titles and the chronological publication year. Sometimes author was the first access point to catalogue the books. If it was necessary for the books to take footnotes, detail notes were formed. The Volume number written consecutively to order and subject could clarify the quantity of books. 2) Refering to Classfication System by Seven Norms (칠분법) and Classification System by Four Norms(사분법), Susokyongjeokji(수서경적지) had accomplished the classification by four norms. In fact, its classification largely imitated Wanhyosoh(완효서)'s Chilrok(칠록), Susokyongjeokji's system of classification consisted of four parts-Kyung(경), Sa(사), Cha(자), Chip(칩). The four parts were divided into 40 orders. Its appendix was again divided into two parts, Buddihism and Taiosm. Under the two parts there were fifteen orders. Totally Susokyongjeokji was made of six parts and fifty five orders. In comparison with Hansoyemunji(한서예문지), it clearly showed the conception of Kyung, Sa, Cha, Chip. Especially it deserved to be paid attention that Hansoyemunji laied history off Chunchu(춘추) and removed history to Sabu(사부). However Chabu(사부) put many contrary subjects such as Cheja(제자), Kiye(기예), Sulsu(술수), Sosol(소설) into the same boundary, which committed errors insufficient theoretical basis. Anothor demerit of Susokyongjeokji was that it dealt with Taiosm scriptures and Buddism scriptures at the appendix because they were considered as quasi-religion. Its compilation of bibliographical facts consisted of main preface(Taesoh 대서), minor preface(Sosoh 소서), general preface (Chongsoh 총서), postscript (Husoh 후서). Its bibliological facts mainly focused on the titles. Its recorded authors' birth date and their position. It wrote the lost and existence of books consecutive to total number of books, which revealed total of the lost books in Su Dynasty. 3) Modelling on the basis of Kokumsorok(고분서록) and Naewaekyongrok(내외경록), Kudangsokyongjeokji(구당서경적지) had four parts and fourty five orders. It was estimated as the important role of establishing basic frame of classification by four norms in classification theory's history. However it had also its own limit. Editing and compling orders of Kudangsokyongjeokji had been not progressively changed. Its orders imitated by and large Susokyongjeokji. In Its system of organizing catalogue, with its minor preface and general preface deleting, Kudangsokyongjeokji by titles after orders sometimes broke out confusion because of unclear boundaries between orders. 4) Shindangsoyemunji(신당서예문지), adding 28,469 books to Kudangsokyongjeokji, recorded 82,384 books which were divided by four parts and fourty four orders. In comparison with Kudangkyongjeokj, Sindangsoyemunji corrected unclear order's norm. It merged the analogical norms four orders (for instance, Kohun 고훈 and Sohakryu 소학류) and seperated the different norms four orders (for example, Hyokyong 효경 and Noneuhryu 논어류, Chamwi 참위 and Kyonghaeryu 경해류, Pyonryon 편년 and Wisaryu 위사류). Recording kings' behaviors and speeches (Kikochuryu 기거주류) in the historical parts induced the concept of specfication category. For the first time, part of Chipbu (집부) set up the order of classification norm for historical and literatural books and documents (Munsaryu 문사류). Its editing and compiling had been more simplified than Kudangsokyongjeokji. Introduction was written at first part of bibliographies. Appendants except bibliographic items such subject, author, title, volume number, total were omitted. 5) Songsayemunji(송사예문지) were edited in the basis of combining Puksong(북송) and Namsong(남송), depending on Sabukuksayemunji(사부국사예문지). Generally Songsayemunji had lost a lot of bibliographical facts of many books. They were duplicated and wrongly classified books because it committed an error of the incorrectly annalistic editing. Particularly Namsong showed more open these defaults. Songsayemunji didin't include the books published since the king Youngchong(영종). Its system of classification was more better controlled. Chamwiryu(참위류) in the part of Kyongbu(경부) was omitted. In the part of history(Sabu 사부), recordings of kings' behaviors and speeches more merged in the annals. Historical abstract documents (Sachoryu 사초류) were seperately arranged. In the part of Chabu(자부), Myongdangkyongmaekryu(명당경맥류) and Euisulryu(의술류) were combined. Ohangryu(오행류) were laied off Shikuryu(시구류). In the part of Chipbu(집부), historical and literatural books (Munsaryu 문사류) were independentely arranged. There were the renamed orders; from Wisa(위사) to Paesa(패사), Chapsa (잡사) to Pyolsa(열사), Chapchonki(잡전기) to Chonki(전기), Ryusoh(류서) to Ryusa(류서). Introduction had only main preface. The books of each subject catalogued by title, the volume number, and author and arranged mainly by authors. Annotations were written consecutively after title and the volume number. In the afternote the number of not-treated books were revealed. Difference from Singdangsohyemunji(신당서예문지) were that the concept and boundary of orders became more clearer. It also wrote the number of books consecutive to main subject. 6) Modelling on Chonkyongdangsomok (경당서목), Myongsayemunji(명사예문지) was compiled in the basis of books and documents published in the Ming Danasty. In classification system, Myongsayemunji partly merged and the seperated some orders for it. It also deleted and renamed some of orders. In case of necessity, combining of orders' norm was occured particulary in the part of Sabu(사부) and Chabu(자부). Therefore these merging of orders norm didn't offer sufficient theretical background. For example, such demerits were seen in the case that historical books edited by annals were combined with offical historical ones which were differently compiled and edited from the former. In the part of Chabu(자부), it broke out another confusion that Pubga(법가), Meongga(명가), Mukga(묵가), Chonghweongka's(종횡가) thoughts were classified in the Chapka(잡가). Scriptures of Taiosim and Buddhism were seperated from each other. There were some deleted books such as Mokrokryu(목록류), Paesaryu(패사류) in the part of history (Sabu 사부) and Chosaryu(초사류) in the part of Chipbu(집부). The some in the each orders had been renamed. Imitating compiling system of Songsayemunji(송사예문지), with reffering to its differ-ence, Myongsayemunji(명사예문지) wrote the review and the change of the books by author. The number of not-treated books didn't appear at the total. It also deleted the total following main subject.

  • PDF