• 제목/요약/키워드: Point estimate method

검색결과 773건 처리시간 0.035초

Uncertainty analysis of containment dose rate for core damage assessment in nuclear power plants

  • Wu, Guohua;Tong, Jiejuan;Gao, Yan;Zhang, Liguo;Zhao, Yunfei
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제50권5호
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    • pp.673-682
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    • 2018
  • One of the most widely used methods to estimate core damage during a nuclear power plant accident is containment radiation measurement. The evolution of severe accidents is extremely complex, leading to uncertainty in the containment dose rate (CDR). Therefore, it is difficult to accurately determine core damage. This study proposes to conduct uncertainty analysis of CDR for core damage assessment. First, based on source term estimation, the Monte Carlo (MC) and point-kernel integration methods were used to estimate the probability density function of the CDR under different extents of core damage in accident scenarios with late containment failure. Second, the results were verified by comparing the results of both methods. The point-kernel integration method results were more dispersed than the MC results, and the MC method was used for both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Quantitative analysis indicated a linear relationship, rather than the expected proportional relationship, between the CDR and core damage fraction. The CDR distribution obeyed a logarithmic normal distribution in accidents with a small break in containment, but not in accidents with a large break in containment. A possible application of our analysis is a real-time core damage estimation program based on the CDR.

심층 신경망을 이용한 실시간 유도탄 파편 탄착점 및 분산 추정 (Real-Time Estimation of Missile Debris Predicted Impact Point and Dispersion Using Deep Neural Network)

  • 강태영;박국권;김정훈;유창경
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제49권3호
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    • pp.197-204
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    • 2021
  • 유도탄의 비행 시험 중 고장 또는 비정상적인 기동이 발생하는 경우 비행을 계속하지 않도록 의도적으로 자폭한다. 이때 파편이 발생하며 안전 지역을 벗어났는지 여부를 실시간으로 추정하는 것이 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 Fully-Connected Neural Network(FCNN)를 이용하여 실시간으로 파편의 예상 낙하 영역 및 낙하 시간을 추정하는 방법을 제안한다. 많은 양의 학습 데이터 생성을 위해 Unscented Transform(UT)를 적용하였으며 신뢰도 확보를 위해 Monte-Carlo(MC) 시뮬레이션과 비교하여 파라미터를 선정하였다. 또한 제안한 방법의 추정 결과를 MC와 비교하여 성능을 분석하였다.

선삭가공에 있어서 채터진동의 인프로세스 검출에 관한 연구(II) (A Study on In-Process Detection of Chatter Vibration in a Turning Process)

  • 구연욱;정의식
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.117-121
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    • 1992
  • There have been many studies on chatter vibration in machining but there seems to be no regulations to decide the commencing point of chatter objectively. The development of an objective method which can estimate and detect chatter commencement is very much in need for automatic manufacturing systems, dynamic performance tests for machine tools, and so on. In this study, an approach for in-process monitoring and for deciding commencing point of the chatter vibration using the frequency band-energy method was proposed. From this method, in-process monitoring system for detection the chatter vibration was developed, and investigated its practical possibility. As a result, it is shown by experiments that the chatter vibtation can be detected accurately. Since the changing pattern of the signal energy in certain frequency band during chattering is seldom affected by the variation of cutting conditions, if adequate pre-measures are taken, this method can be widely used in most machining processes.

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레일의 상하방향 불규칙성에 의한 차륜과 레일의 동 접촉력 (Dynamic Wheel/Rail Contact Force due to Rail Irregularities)

  • 이현엽
    • 소음진동
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.616-622
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    • 1998
  • An analytical method has been developed to estimate the dynamic contact force between wheel and rail when trains are running on rail with vertical irregularities. In this method, the effect of Hertzian deformation at the contact point is considered as a linearized spring and the wheel is considered as an sprung mass. The rail is modelled as a discretely-supported Timoshenko beam, and the periodic structure theory was adopted to obtain the driving-point receptance. As an example, the dynamic contact force for a typical wheel/rail system was analysed by the method developed in this research and the dynamic characteristics of the system was also discussed. It is revealed that discretely-supported Timoshenko beam model should be used instead of the previously used continuously-supported model or discretelysupported Euler beam model, for the frequency range above several hundred hertz.

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변곡점 및 단구간 에너지평가에 의한 음성의 천이구간 특징분석 (Analysis of Transient Features in Speech Signal by Estimating the Short-term Energy and Inflection points)

  • 최일홍;장승관;차태호;최웅세;김창석
    • 음성과학
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    • 제3권
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    • pp.156-166
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, I would like to propose a dividing method by estimating the inflection points and the average magnitude energy in speech signals. The method proposed in this paper gave not only a satisfactory solution for the problems on dividing method by zero-crossing rate, but could estimate the feature of the transient period after dividing the starting point and transient period in speech signals before steady state. In the results of the experiment carried out with monosyllabic speech, it was found that even through speech samples indicated in D.C. level, the staring and ending point of the speech signals were exactly divided by the method. In addition to the results, I could compare with the features, such as the length of transient period, the short term energy, the frequency characteristics, in each speech signal.

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ESTIMATING THE DOMAIN OF ATTRACTION OF HIV-1 SYSTEM BASED ON MOMENT METHOD

  • LI, CHUNJI;YAO, HAN
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • 제36권5_6호
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    • pp.349-358
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    • 2018
  • In this article, we discuss the domain of attraction of HIV-1 system by using the moment theory. First, the asymptotic stabilities of the equilibrium point of the system are given, and then we introduce how to use the moment method to estimate domain of attraction. Finally, one simulation shows the effectiveness of moment method.

비선형 파괴역학 해석을 위한 새로운 기법: 개선된 참조 응력법 (New Engineering Method for Non-Linear Fracture Mechanics Analysis Enhanced Reference Stress Method)

  • 김윤재;김영진
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집A
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2001
  • This paper briefly describes the new engineering method, called the enhanced reference stress method, to estimate J (or $C^*$) for non-linear fracture mechanics analysis of defective components, recently proposed by authors. The proposed method offers significant advantages over existing methods in terms of its accuracy, simplicity and robustness. Examples of application of the proposed method to typical piping integrity problems such as through-wall cracked pipes under combined loading, and surface cracked pipes under internal pressure and bending are given. Excellent agreements between the FE J and $C^*$ results and those of the proposed method provide sufficient confidence in the use of the proposed method. One notable point is that the proposed method can be used to estimate J (or $C^*$) along the crack front of surface cracks. Moreover simplicity of the proposed method makes it easy to extend to more complex problems. Thus the proposed method is attractive to assess the significance of defects under practical situations.

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2점 계류된 선박에 대한 운동 해석 (Motion Analysis of Two Point Moored Oil Tanker)

  • 이호영;임춘규
    • 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국해양공학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.232-236
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    • 2003
  • The anchor is laid on seabed and the main engine is worked to against incident environmental loads in typoon. As the main engine is broken down in the storm, the anchor chain is cutted and the vessel is drifted. Although a ship is moored by two point mooring lines to keep the her position, a ship is crashed into a rock because of typoon and the accident of oil spilling may be occured. In this paper, we studied the position-keeping of a ship which is analyized based on the slow motion maneuvering equations considering wave, current and wind. The direct integration method is employed to estimate wave loads. The current forces are calculated by using mathematical of MMG. The two point mooring forces are quasisatatically evaluated by using the catenary equation. The coefficeints of wind forces are modeled from Isherwood’s emperical data and the variation of wind speed is estimated by wind spectrum. The nonlinear motions of a two point moored ship are simulated considering wave, current, wind load in time domain.

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위험률의 변화점에 대한 비모수적 추정 (Nonparametric estimation of hazard rates change-point)

  • 정광모
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.163-175
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    • 1998
  • 위험률 변화점모형에서 특별한 함수형이나 분포함수에 대한 가정을 하지 않는 일반적인 모형을 고려하였다. 이러한 모형은 지금까지 주로 다루어 왔던 상수항 위험률의 변화점모형뿐만 아니라 여러 유형의 변화점모형을 내포한다. 중도절단된 자료하에서 위험률 변화점에 관한 모수적 모형을 가정하지 않고 변화점 이전과 이후의 넬슨(Nelson) 누적위험함수 추정량의 기울기 차를 이용하여 추정량을 제안하고, 그의 점근적 성질을 규명한다. 붓스트랩 추정량의 일치성과 점근분포를 유도하고, 몇가지 분포함수의 경우에 몬테칼로 모의실험을 통해 제안된 방법의 경험적 성질을 살펴보았다. 또한, 심장병 이석환자의 생존시간 자료를 통해 변화점을 추정하고 추정량의 붓스트랩 분포를 구하였다.

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2점 계류된 선박에 대한 수평면상 표류운동 해석 (Drift Motion Analysis on Horizontal Plane of a Two-Point Moored Oil Tanker)

  • 이호영;임춘규
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.8-12
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    • 2004
  • The anchor is laid on the seabed, and the main engine is working against incident environmental loads in a typhoon. As the main engine is broken Mum in the storm, the anchor chain is cut and the vessel drifts. Although a ship is moored by two-point mooring lines to maintain her position, it has crashed into a rock because of a typhoon, resulting in a possible accidental oil spillage. In this paper, we studied maintenance of a ship's position, which is analyzed based on the slow motion maneuvering equations considering wave, current, and wind. To estimate wave loads, the direct integration method is employed. The current forces are calculated, using MMG (Mathematical Modeling Group). Th two-point mooring forces are quasi-statistically evaluated, using the catenary equation. Th coefficients of wind forces are modeled from Isherwood's empirical data, and the variation of wind speed is estimated by wind spectrum. The nonlinear motions of a two-point moored ship are simulated, considering wave, current, and wind load, in specific domain of time.