• Title/Summary/Keyword: Point estimate method

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Uncertainty analysis of containment dose rate for core damage assessment in nuclear power plants

  • Wu, Guohua;Tong, Jiejuan;Gao, Yan;Zhang, Liguo;Zhao, Yunfei
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.673-682
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    • 2018
  • One of the most widely used methods to estimate core damage during a nuclear power plant accident is containment radiation measurement. The evolution of severe accidents is extremely complex, leading to uncertainty in the containment dose rate (CDR). Therefore, it is difficult to accurately determine core damage. This study proposes to conduct uncertainty analysis of CDR for core damage assessment. First, based on source term estimation, the Monte Carlo (MC) and point-kernel integration methods were used to estimate the probability density function of the CDR under different extents of core damage in accident scenarios with late containment failure. Second, the results were verified by comparing the results of both methods. The point-kernel integration method results were more dispersed than the MC results, and the MC method was used for both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Quantitative analysis indicated a linear relationship, rather than the expected proportional relationship, between the CDR and core damage fraction. The CDR distribution obeyed a logarithmic normal distribution in accidents with a small break in containment, but not in accidents with a large break in containment. A possible application of our analysis is a real-time core damage estimation program based on the CDR.

Real-Time Estimation of Missile Debris Predicted Impact Point and Dispersion Using Deep Neural Network (심층 신경망을 이용한 실시간 유도탄 파편 탄착점 및 분산 추정)

  • Kang, Tae Young;Park, Kuk-Kwon;Kim, Jeong-Hun;Ryoo, Chang-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.197-204
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    • 2021
  • If a failure or an abnormal maneuver occurs during the flight test of a missile, the missile is deliberately self-destructed so as not to continue the flight. At this time, debris are produced and it is important to estimate the impact area in real-time whether it is out of the safety area. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the debris dispersion area and falling time in real-time using a Fully-Connected Neural Network (FCNN). We applied the Unscented Transform (UT) to generate a large amount of training data. UT parameters were selected by comparing with Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation to secure reliability. Also, we analyzed the performance of the proposed method by comparing the estimation result of MC.

A Study on In-Process Detection of Chatter Vibration in a Turning Process (선삭가공에 있어서 채터진동의 인프로세스 검출에 관한 연구(II))

  • Koo, Yeon-Yoog;Chung, Eui-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.117-121
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    • 1992
  • There have been many studies on chatter vibration in machining but there seems to be no regulations to decide the commencing point of chatter objectively. The development of an objective method which can estimate and detect chatter commencement is very much in need for automatic manufacturing systems, dynamic performance tests for machine tools, and so on. In this study, an approach for in-process monitoring and for deciding commencing point of the chatter vibration using the frequency band-energy method was proposed. From this method, in-process monitoring system for detection the chatter vibration was developed, and investigated its practical possibility. As a result, it is shown by experiments that the chatter vibtation can be detected accurately. Since the changing pattern of the signal energy in certain frequency band during chattering is seldom affected by the variation of cutting conditions, if adequate pre-measures are taken, this method can be widely used in most machining processes.

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Dynamic Wheel/Rail Contact Force due to Rail Irregularities (레일의 상하방향 불규칙성에 의한 차륜과 레일의 동 접촉력)

  • 이현엽
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.616-622
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    • 1998
  • An analytical method has been developed to estimate the dynamic contact force between wheel and rail when trains are running on rail with vertical irregularities. In this method, the effect of Hertzian deformation at the contact point is considered as a linearized spring and the wheel is considered as an sprung mass. The rail is modelled as a discretely-supported Timoshenko beam, and the periodic structure theory was adopted to obtain the driving-point receptance. As an example, the dynamic contact force for a typical wheel/rail system was analysed by the method developed in this research and the dynamic characteristics of the system was also discussed. It is revealed that discretely-supported Timoshenko beam model should be used instead of the previously used continuously-supported model or discretelysupported Euler beam model, for the frequency range above several hundred hertz.

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Analysis of Transient Features in Speech Signal by Estimating the Short-term Energy and Inflection points (변곡점 및 단구간 에너지평가에 의한 음성의 천이구간 특징분석)

  • Choi, I.H.;Jang, S.K.;Cha, T.H.;Choi, U.S.;Kim, C.S.
    • Speech Sciences
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    • v.3
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    • pp.156-166
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, I would like to propose a dividing method by estimating the inflection points and the average magnitude energy in speech signals. The method proposed in this paper gave not only a satisfactory solution for the problems on dividing method by zero-crossing rate, but could estimate the feature of the transient period after dividing the starting point and transient period in speech signals before steady state. In the results of the experiment carried out with monosyllabic speech, it was found that even through speech samples indicated in D.C. level, the staring and ending point of the speech signals were exactly divided by the method. In addition to the results, I could compare with the features, such as the length of transient period, the short term energy, the frequency characteristics, in each speech signal.

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ESTIMATING THE DOMAIN OF ATTRACTION OF HIV-1 SYSTEM BASED ON MOMENT METHOD

  • LI, CHUNJI;YAO, HAN
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.36 no.5_6
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    • pp.349-358
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    • 2018
  • In this article, we discuss the domain of attraction of HIV-1 system by using the moment theory. First, the asymptotic stabilities of the equilibrium point of the system are given, and then we introduce how to use the moment method to estimate domain of attraction. Finally, one simulation shows the effectiveness of moment method.

New Engineering Method for Non-Linear Fracture Mechanics Analysis Enhanced Reference Stress Method (비선형 파괴역학 해석을 위한 새로운 기법: 개선된 참조 응력법)

  • Kim, Yun-Jae;Kim, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2001
  • This paper briefly describes the new engineering method, called the enhanced reference stress method, to estimate J (or $C^*$) for non-linear fracture mechanics analysis of defective components, recently proposed by authors. The proposed method offers significant advantages over existing methods in terms of its accuracy, simplicity and robustness. Examples of application of the proposed method to typical piping integrity problems such as through-wall cracked pipes under combined loading, and surface cracked pipes under internal pressure and bending are given. Excellent agreements between the FE J and $C^*$ results and those of the proposed method provide sufficient confidence in the use of the proposed method. One notable point is that the proposed method can be used to estimate J (or $C^*$) along the crack front of surface cracks. Moreover simplicity of the proposed method makes it easy to extend to more complex problems. Thus the proposed method is attractive to assess the significance of defects under practical situations.

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Motion Analysis of Two Point Moored Oil Tanker (2점 계류된 선박에 대한 운동 해석)

  • Lee, Ho-Young;Lim, Choon-Gyu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.232-236
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    • 2003
  • The anchor is laid on seabed and the main engine is worked to against incident environmental loads in typoon. As the main engine is broken down in the storm, the anchor chain is cutted and the vessel is drifted. Although a ship is moored by two point mooring lines to keep the her position, a ship is crashed into a rock because of typoon and the accident of oil spilling may be occured. In this paper, we studied the position-keeping of a ship which is analyized based on the slow motion maneuvering equations considering wave, current and wind. The direct integration method is employed to estimate wave loads. The current forces are calculated by using mathematical of MMG. The two point mooring forces are quasisatatically evaluated by using the catenary equation. The coefficeints of wind forces are modeled from Isherwood’s emperical data and the variation of wind speed is estimated by wind spectrum. The nonlinear motions of a two point moored ship are simulated considering wave, current, wind load in time domain.

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Nonparametric estimation of hazard rates change-point (위험률의 변화점에 대한 비모수적 추정)

  • 정광모
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.163-175
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    • 1998
  • The change of hazard rates at some unknown time point has been the interest of many statisticians. But it was restricted to the constant hazard rates which correspond to the exponential distribution. In this paper we generalize the change-point model in which any specific functional forms of hazard rates are net assumed. The assumed model includes various types of changes before and after the unknown time point. The Nelson estimator of cumulative hazard function is introduced. We estimate the change-point maximizing slope changes of Nelson estimator. Consistency and asymptotic distribution of bootstrap estimator are obtained using the martingale theory. Through a Monte Carlo study we check the performance of the proposed method. We also explain the proposed method using the Stanford Heart Transplant Data set.

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Drift Motion Analysis on Horizontal Plane of a Two-Point Moored Oil Tanker (2점 계류된 선박에 대한 수평면상 표류운동 해석)

  • 이호영;임춘규
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.8-12
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    • 2004
  • The anchor is laid on the seabed, and the main engine is working against incident environmental loads in a typhoon. As the main engine is broken Mum in the storm, the anchor chain is cut and the vessel drifts. Although a ship is moored by two-point mooring lines to maintain her position, it has crashed into a rock because of a typhoon, resulting in a possible accidental oil spillage. In this paper, we studied maintenance of a ship's position, which is analyzed based on the slow motion maneuvering equations considering wave, current, and wind. To estimate wave loads, the direct integration method is employed. The current forces are calculated, using MMG (Mathematical Modeling Group). Th two-point mooring forces are quasi-statistically evaluated, using the catenary equation. Th coefficients of wind forces are modeled from Isherwood's empirical data, and the variation of wind speed is estimated by wind spectrum. The nonlinear motions of a two-point moored ship are simulated, considering wave, current, and wind load, in specific domain of time.