• Title/Summary/Keyword: Point Estimate Method

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Spatial Data Analysis using the Kriging Method

  • Jang, Jihui;Hong, Taekyong;NamKung, Pyong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.423-432
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    • 2003
  • The data observed at different positions are called the estimate of interested variable at new observation point on the Kriging utilize the space estimate technique, in which case there is correlation spatially. In this paper we provide the estimate for Variogram and Kriging methods as a field of kriging theory and dealt with actually measured data. And at the same time we forecast the amount of ozone that was not measured at this point by Kriging method and compared Ordinary Kriging method with Inverse Distance Kriging method.

A FFP-based Model to Estimate Software Development Cost (소프트웨어 개발비용을 추정하기 위한 FFP 기반 모델)

  • Park, Ju-Seok;Chong, Ki-Won
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.10D no.7
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    • pp.1137-1144
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    • 2003
  • The existing Function Point method to estimate the software size has been utilized frequently with the management information system. Due to the expanding usage of the real-time and embedded system, the Full Function Point method is being proposed. However, despite many research is being carried out relation to the software size, the research on the model to estimate the development cost from the measured software size is inadequate. This paper analyzed the linear regression model and power regression model which estimate the development cost from the software FFP The power model is selected, which shows its estimation is most adequate.

Evaluation of Failure Probability for Planar Failure Using Point Estimate Method (점추정법을 이용한 평면파괴의 파괴확률 신정)

  • Park, Hyuck-Jin
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2002
  • In recent years, the probabilistic analysis has been used in rock slope engineering. This is because uncertainty is pervasive in rock slope engineering and most geometric and geotechnical parameters of discontinuity and rock masses are involved with uncertainty. Whilst the traditional deterministic analysis method fails to properly deal with uncertainty, the probabilistic analysis has advantages quantifying the uncertainty in parameters. As a probabilistic analysis method, the Monte Carlo simulation has been used commonly. However, the Monte Carlo simulation requires many repeated calculations and therefore, needs much effort and time to calculate the probability of failure. In contrast, the point estimate method involves a simple calculation with moments for random variables. In this study the probability of failure in rock slope is evaluated by the point estimate method and the results are compared to the probability of failure obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.

Comparative Study on the Applicability of Point Estimate Methods in Combination with Numerical Analysis for the Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of Underground Structures (수치해석과 연계한 지하구조물의 확률론적 신뢰성 평가를 위한 점추정법의 적용성에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Park, Do-Hyun;Kim, Hyung-Mok;Ryu, Dong-Woo;Choi, Byung-Hee;Han, Kong-Chang
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.86-92
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    • 2012
  • Point estimate method has a less accuracy than Monte Carlo simulation that is usually considered as an exact probabilistic method, but this method still remains popular in probability-based reliability assessment in geotechnical and rock engineering, because it significantly reduce the number of sampling points and produces the statistical moments of a performance function in a reasonable accuracy. In the present study, we investigated the accuracy and applicability of point estimate methods proposed by Rosenblueth and Zhou & Nowak by comparing the results of these two methods with those of Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison was carried out for the problem of a lined circular tunnel in an elastic medium where an closed-form analytical solution is given. The comparison results showed that despite the non-linearity of the analytical solution, the statistical moments calculated by the point estimate methods and the Monte Carlo simulations agreed well with an average error of roughly 1-2%. This average error demonstrates the applicability of the two point estimate methods for the probabilistic reliability assessment of underground structures in combination with numerical analysis.

On-Line Calculation of the Critical Point of Voltage Collapse Based on Multiple Load Flow Solutions (다중조류계산을 이용한 전압붕괴 임계점의 On-Line 계산)

  • Nam, Hae-Kon;Kim, Dong-Jun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1993.07a
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    • pp.134-136
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    • 1993
  • This paper presents a novel and efficient method to calculate the critical point of voltage collapse. Conjugate gradient and modified Newton-Raphson methods are employed to calculate two pairs of multiple load flow solutions for two operating conditions, i.e., both +mode and -mode voltages for two loading conditions respectively. Then these four voltage magnitude-load data sets of the bus which is most susceptible to voltage collapse, are fitted to third order polynomial using Lagrangian interpolation in order to represent approximate nose curve (P-V curve). This nose curve locates first estimate of the critical point of voltage collapse. The procedure described above is repeated near the critical point and the new estimate will be very close to the critical point. The proposed method is tested for the eleven bus Klos-Kerner system, with good accuracy and fast computation time.

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Parameters Estimators for the Generalized Exponential Distribution

  • Abuammoh, A.;Sarhan, A.M.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2007
  • Maximum likelihood method is utilized to estimate the two parameters of generalized exponential distribution based on grouped and censored data. This method does not give closed form for the estimates, thus numerical procedure is used. Reliability measures for the generalized exponential distribution are calculated. Testing the goodness of fit for the exponential distribution against the generalized exponential distribution is discussed. Relevant reliability measures of the generalized exponential distributions are also evaluated. A set of real data is employed to illustrate the results given in this paper.

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A Clamping Force Estimation Method in Electric Parking Brake Systems (전자 제어식 주차브레이크 시스템의 제동력 추정 기법)

  • Jang, Min-Seok;Lee, Young-Ok;Lee, Won-Goo;Lee, Choong-Woo;Son, Young-Sup;Chung, Chung-Choo
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.12
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    • pp.2291-2299
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    • 2008
  • Hall effect force sensors have been used to measure clamping force in conventional Electric Parking Brake(EPB) systems. Estimation of clamping force without the sensors has drawn attentions due to mounting space limitations and cost issues. Removing the sensor requires the estimation of the initial contact point where the clamping force is effectively applied to the brake pads. In this paper, we propose how to estimate the initial contact point finding the relation between the angular velocity of an actuator and the initial contact point. For force estimation a look-up table is used as a function of the displacement of parking cable from the initial contact point. The proposed method is validated by experiments. From the experimental results we observe that the proposed method satisfies the specifications. The designed method is also able to estimate clamping force although parking cables are loosened and brake pads are worn out. Applying the proposed method enables manufacturing of low cost EPB systems.

Selection of Data-adaptive Polynomial Order in Local Polynomial Nonparametric Regression

  • Jo, Jae-Keun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 1997
  • A data-adaptive order selection procedure is proposed for local polynomial nonparametric regression. For each given polynomial order, bias and variance are estimated and the adaptive polynomial order that has the smallest estimated mean squared error is selected locally at each location point. To estimate mean squared error, empirical bias estimate of Ruppert (1995) and local polynomial variance estimate of Ruppert, Wand, Wand, Holst and Hossjer (1995) are used. Since the proposed method does not require fitting polynomial model of order higher than the model order, it is simpler than the order selection method proposed by Fan and Gijbels (1995b).

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A Model of Collision Point to Estimate Impact Force Related to Piston Slap (피스톤 슬랩 충격력 예측을 위한 충돌점 모델)

  • 조성호;안상태
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.474-479
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    • 2000
  • Piston slap is not only one of the major sources of noise and vibration in internal combustion engines but also a cause of the deterioration of engine performance. The basic mechanism associated with the piston slap seems to be quite simple but the phenomenon is in fact complicated with regard to many mechanical elements associated, First of all the impact force of piston slap must be identified to estimate engine block surface vibration, In this paper model of collision point is proposed to calculate the impact force when slap surface vibration. In this paper model of collision point is proposed to calculate the impact force when slap occurs. The parameters of the model are estimated by employing the concept of point mobility, . The predicted and experimentally observed vibration results confirm that the proposed method is practically useful.

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