• 제목/요약/키워드: Petroleum Consumption

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Using Different Method for petroleum Consumption Forecasting, Case Study: Tehran

  • Varahrami, Vida
    • 동아시아경상학회지
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.17-21
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: Forecasting of petroleum consumption is useful in planning and management of petroleum production and control of air pollution. Research Design, Data and Methodology: ARMA models, sometimes called Box-Jenkins models after the iterative Box-Jenkins methodology usually used to estimate them, are typically applied to auto correlated time series data. Results: Petroleum consumption modeling plays a role key in big urban air pollution planning and management. In this study three models as, MLFF, MLFF with GARCH (1,1) and ARMA(1,1), have been investigated to model the petroleum consumption forecasts. Certain standard statistical parameters were used to evaluate the performance of the models developed in this study. Based upon the results obtained in this study and the consequent comparative analysis, it has been found that the MLFF with GARCH (1,1) have better forecasting results.. Conclusions: Survey of data reveals that deposit of government policies in recent yeas, petroleum consumption rises in Tehran and unfortunately more petroleum use causes to air pollution and bad environmental problems.

연료물성에 따른 경유 차량의 성능 및 에너지소비효율 연구 (A Study on The Performance and Fuel Economy of Diesel Vehicles According to Change in Fuel Properties)

  • 노경하;이민호;김기호;이정민
    • 한국응용과학기술학회지
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    • 제35권3호
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    • pp.667-675
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    • 2018
  • 점차 강화되는 배출가스 규제와 적은 연료로 많은 거리를 주행할 수 있는 고효율 자동차에 대한 요구로 에너지소비효율에 대한 관심이 점차 늘어나고 있다. 국내의 에너지소비효율은 도심주행모드와 고속도로 모드를 주행하여 복합연비로 산정하고 5-Cycle 보정식을 이용하여 최종 에너지소비효율을 표시하고 있다. 에너지소비효율의 경우 카본발란스법에 의하여 산출되는데 이때 배출가스에 의해 계산이 됨에 따라 연소에 사용되는 연료는 자동차 성능과 에너지소비효율에 매우 중요한 역할을 하게 된다. 자동차 연료의 경우 국내에서는 석유 및 석유대체연료 사업법 품질기준에 따라 국내에 유통되고 있는데 정유사의 정제 방법이나 원유에 따라 품질 기준 내에서 물성 차이를 보일 수 있다. 일정 품질기준을 정하고 있음에 따라 연료별 큰 차이는 나지 않을 것으로 보이나 자동차의 성능에는 영향을 미칠 수 있어 그에 따른 연구가 필요한 실정이다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 시중에서 유통되고 있는 연료 중 여름철에 판매되는 경유를 정유사 직영점을 통해 구매하였으며, 각 시료별 물성을 분석하고 그에 따른 에너지소비효율을 측정하였다. 에너지소 비효율의 경우 현행 경유 자동차의 에너지소비효율 산정식과 휘발유 에너지소비효율에서 사용되는 산출식을 이용하여 물성 적용에 따른 변화를 살펴보았다. 그 결과 시료별 밀도는 최대 약 0.9%의 차이를 보였으며, 순발열량은 1.6%의 차이를 보였으며, 현행 에너지소비효율 산출 결과에서는 도심모드에서 약 1%, 고속모드에서 1.4% 차이를 보였다. 휘발유 산출식을 이용한 산출에서는 현행 에너지소비효율 산출때 보다 약 6%정도 낮은 수치를 보였으며, 각 시료별 에너지소비효율은 최대 도심과 고속에서 최대 약 1.4%의 차이를 보였다.

원유수입과 환율변동성 (Petroleum Imports and Exchange Rate Volatility)

  • 모수원;김창범
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.397-414
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents an empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility, petroleum's import price and industrial production on petroleum imports. The GARCH framework is used to measure the exchange rate volatility. One of the most appealing features of the GARCH model is that it captures the volatility clustering phenomenon. We found one long-run relationship between petroleum imports, import price, industrial production, and exchange rate volatility using Johansen's multivariate cointegration methodology. Since there exists a cointegrating vector, therefore, we employ an error correction model to examine the short-run dynamic linkage, finding that the exchange rate volatility performs a key role in the short-run. This paper also apply impulse-response functions to provide the dynamic responses of energy consumption to the exchange rate volatility. The results show that the response of energy consumption to exchange rate volatility declines at the first month and dies out very quickly.

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항공분야 온실가스 감축을 위한 바이오항공유 제조기술 (Bio-Jet Fuel Production Technologies for GHG Reduction in Aviation Sector)

  • 김재곤;박조용;임의순;민경일;박천규;하종한
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제26권6호
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    • pp.609-628
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    • 2015
  • Thie study presents the biomass-derived jet (bio-jet) fuel production technologies for greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction in aviation sector. The aviation sector is responsible for the 2% of the world anthropogenic $CO_2$ emissions and the 10% of the fuel consumption: airlines' costs for fuel reach 30% of operating costs. In addition, the aviation traffic is expected to double within 15 years from 2012, while fuel consumption and $CO_2$ emissions should double in 25 years. Biojet fuels have been claimed to be one of the most promising and strategic solutions to mitigate aviation emissions. This jet fuel, additionally, must meet ASTM International specifications and potentially be a100% drop-in replacement for current petroleum jet fuel. In this study, the current technologies for producing renewable jet fuels, categorized by alcohols-to-jet, oil-to-jet, syngas-to-jet, and sugar-to-jet pathways are reviewed for process, economic analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA) on conversion pathways to bio-jet fuel.

디젤차량 연비시험에 있어 시험온도 및 냉각팬 조건이 미치는 영향분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Influence of Test Temperature & Cooling Fan Condition on the Fuel Test of Diesel Vehicle)

  • 김현진;김성우;임재혁;노경하;이정천;김기호;오상기
    • 동력기계공학회지
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.46-55
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    • 2017
  • Due to the arise of natural disasters caused by global warming, consumers have more interest in the fuel efficiency of their vehicles, and fuel efficiency became an important factor in comparing vehicles. In this market situation, methods to measure fuel efficiency has become one of the main interests of vehicle related organizations and laboratories, and the current method to measure fuel efficiency is to follow the notification established by the ministry of trade, industry and energy, ministry of environment, and the ministry of land, infrastructure and transport. In this study, we analyze the influence of vehicle fuel efficiency according to test temperature and cooling fan condition which have the possibility to cause difference in fuel efficiency. The analysis results of the influence of the fuel efficiency according to the test temperature, the difference of the fuel efficiency of the test temperature ($21{\sim}29^{\circ}C$) within the allowable range of the notification showed a maximum difference of 2.9%. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the introduction of a test method that permits only the temperature change based on the reference point as the allowable range even in the test within the allowable range. The analysis of the influence of the fuel efficiency according to the cooling method showed no significant effect, and it seems reasonable to maintain the test method of the current notification.

석유제품의 유통구조와 물류체계 분석 - 경질제품을 대상으로 - (An Analysis of the Distribution Structure and Logistics System of Light Petroleum Products)

  • 이희연;최윤선
    • 한국경제지리학회지
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.5-24
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    • 2002
  • 본 연구는 경질제품의 유통구조와 물류체계를 공간적 관점에서 분석하였다. 석유제품은 정유사, 대리점, 주유소의 유통기관들을 통해서 공급되지만, 제품의 특성과 용도별로 상이한 유통경로를 갖고 있다. 석유제품의 수송은 정유공장에서 주요 소비지역에 입지하고 있는 저유소까지의 1차 수송과 주유소로부터 주유소나 중소수요처까지의 2차 수송으로 이루어진다. 1차 수송에는 유조선, 유조화차, 송유관, 유조차가 이용되고, 대리점이나 수송용역 업체가 담당하는 2차 수송은 대부분 유조차가 수송을 전담하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 SK와 LG 정유사의 저유소 분포와 저유소 유형별 공급권역을 분석하였다. 또한 하나의 저유소가 관할하는 공급권역내에 포함된 인구수와 자동차수, 주유소수를 도출하였고, 이를 바탕으로 하나의 주유소가 공급을 담당하는 최소요구치 수요인 인구수와 자동차수를 산출하였다.

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시험모드 특성이 전기자동차의 에너지소비효율에 미치는 영향 연구 (The impact study on fuel economy of electric vehicle according to the test mode characteristics)

  • 노경하;임재혁;김성우;김기호;하종한;오상기
    • 동력기계공학회지
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    • 제19권6호
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2015
  • With rising fuel costs and the depletion of fossil fuels, electric vehicles of high efficiency has been increasing interest. although high-performance battery continually is developing, Electric vehicles is not satisfied with the characteristics of the environment. In this study, By using the current fuel economy testing methods(5-cycle test), until the fully discharged battery electric vehicles is evaluated for a variety of environmental and operating conditions. As a result, Electric vehicles showed a low energy consumption efficiency in low temperature and rapid acceleration, deceleration in the operating environment compared with normal temperature.

경유엔진용 윤활유의 성상 및 열화가 배출가스 및 후처리 장치에 미치는 영향 연구 (Effect of the Properties of Diesel Engine Oil and Aging on Exhaust Gases and DPF)

  • 김정환;김기호;이정민
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • 제34권6호
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    • pp.292-299
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this research is to investigate the impact of engine oil aging on PM(Particulate Matter), exhaust gases, and DPF. It is widely known that the specification of a lubricant and its consumption in an ICE considerably influences the release of regulated harmful emissions under normal engine operating conditions. Considering DPF clogging phenomena associated with lubricant-derived soot/ash components, a simulated aging mode is designed for DPF to facilitate engine dynamometer testing. A PM/ash accumulation cycle is developed by considering real-world engine operating conditions for the increment of engine oil consumption and natural DPF regeneration for ash accumulation. The test duration for DPF aging is approximately 300 h with high- and low-SAPs engine oils. Detailed engine lubricant properties of new and aged oils are analyzed to evaluate the effect of engine oil degradation on vehicle mileage. Furthermore, physical and chemical analyses are performed using X-CT, ICP, and TGA/DSC to quantify the engine oil contribution on the PM composition. This is achieved by sampling with various filters using specially designed PM sampling equipment. Using high SAPs engine oil causes more PM/ash accumulation compared with low SAPs engine oils and this could accelerate fouling of the EGR in the engine, which results in an increase in harmful exhaust gas emissions. These test results on engine lubricants under operating conditions will assist in the establishment of regulated and unregulated toxic emissions policies and lubricant quality standards.

축산업의 에너지 소비 및 연료연소에 의한 온실가스 배출 특성 (Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions from Fuel Combustion in Korean Livestock Sector)

  • 심성희;이보혜;박태식;정경화
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.267-276
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    • 2015
  • This study estimates Korea's livestock energy consumption and GHG emissions from Korean livestock sector. The results show that livestock energy consumption in 2013 is 474 thousand TOE, 19.0% of total energy consumption in agriculture sector. It is estimated that GHG emission of fuel combustion from livestock sector is 956 thousand tons of $CO_2$ equivalent while a total of 4,589 thousand tons of $CO_2$ equivalent is emitted from agriculture sector. The livestock GHG emission as a proportion of the total agriculture GHG emissions (20.8%) is higher than the livestock energy consumption as a proportion of agriculture energy consumption (19.0%). This is because coal and petroleum consumption in livestock sector as a proportion of the total livestock energy consumption is higher than that in agriculture sector.

유사휘발유 사용에 의한 BTX 배출량 추정 (Estimation of BTX Emission Using Pseudo-gasoline)

  • 전소영;김정;장영기;정봉진
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제28권5호
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    • pp.527-537
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    • 2012
  • The increasing consumption of pseudo-petroleum products (PPP) has been disturbing the national petroleum market. The use of PPP lead to tax evasion, disturbance of sound trading principles, component corrosion of cars, and explosion accident. Also, PPP have emitted hazardous air pollutants (HAP) including the carcinogenic aromatic hydrocarbons, PAHs and aldehydes more than regular-petroleum products. It thus has potentials to cause many environmental and health care problems. In this study, benzene, toluene and xylene emissions from road transport vehicles due to the use of pseudo-gasoline are estimated for the year 2008. The results of our study provide emission estimates of benzene, toluene and xylene for the year as 405, 1,711, 717 tonne/yr, respectively for regular-gasoline. BTX emissions are calculated as 452~515, 1,882~2,264 and 732~752 tonne/yr when the amount of pseudo-gasoline is estimated to account for 6~13% for regular-gasoline consumption. BTX emissions increased as much as 12~27, 10~32, 2~5% by using pseudo-gasoline. It is found that the pseudo-gasoline should be the key component to produce HAP in urban area.