• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.103-108
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• 1989

PERT formulae for the mean and variance of activity time are near exact only over a short interval of the concentration parameter which is defined as the sum of the two shape parameters of the beta distribution. Aiming a better estimation of the mean and variance of activity time, we propose a method of subjectively estimating this concentration parameter via estimating the probability of completing the activity within a specified time interval.

• 터널과지하공간
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.325-342
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• 2018

${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$광산은 연약한 암반특성에서 2차, 3차 채광을 하기 위한 다양한 방법이 시도되었다. 이러한 채광을 위해서는 패널형태로 채광구획을 나누고 패널채광을 하는 동안 패널이 유지되어야 한다. 본 과업에서는 패널 사이의 채광갱도를 강지보에 의하여 유지하고 확률론적으로 패널의 유지기간을 평가하였다. 패널 유지기간 평가를 위하여 Taylor 식을 이용하고, Pert 분포를 개념적으로 변형하여 적용하였다. 주요 입력자료는 Pert 분포에 의하여 결정하고 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 실시하여 확률분포에 대한 패널의 유지기간을 평가하였다. 그 결과 패널폭 18-25 m일 경우 최소 6.5일에서 최대 20.6일 까지 패널의 자립이 가능한 것으로 분석되었다. 신뢰수준 90%에서 무지보 유지기간은 8.2-15.6일 정도로 분석되었다. 이러한 짧은 패널의 유지기간은 패널채광이 불가능하기 때문에 패널의 유지를 위하여 강지보를 계획하였다. 그 결과 광산별 3년 이내의 채광계획으로 패널유지를 위한 강지보를 적용하면, 90% 신뢰수준 내에서 패널의 유지가 가능한 것으로 분석되었다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.73-79
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• 2005

This paper, introduces a Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS III) developed by the author to predict a project completion probability in a certain time. The system integrates deterministic CPM, probabilistic PERT, and stochastic Discrete Event Simulation (DES) scheduling methods into one system. It implements automated statistical analysis methods for computing the minimum number of simulation runs, the significance of the difference between independent simulations, and the confidence interval for the mean project duration as well as sensitivity analysis method in What-if analyzer component. The SPSS 111 gives the several benefits to researchers in that it (1) complements PERT and Monte Carlo simulation by using stochastic activity durations via a web based JAVA simulation over the Internet, (2) provides a way to model a project network having different probability distribution functions, (3) implements statistical analyses method which enable to produce a reliable prediction of the probability of completing a project in a specified time, and (4) allows researchers to compare the outcome of CPM, PERT and DES under different variability or skewness in the activity duration data.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제20권1_2호
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• pp.119-132
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• 2006

This paper presents an approach for using right-truncated exponentially distributed random variables to model activity times in stochastic activity networks. The advantages of using the right-truncated exponential distribution are discussed. The moments of a project completion time using the proposed distribution are derived and compared with other estimated moments in literature.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.145-157
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• 1991

Thid study intends to pursue behavioral-structure of production behavior through statistical models which are using in PERT and Queueing theory. We can corprehand the orders of human production behavior's characteristics by several related attributes of probablity/statistics. These attributes are poisson, Beta, exponential distributions and P.S Laplace's natural probability. Human production behavior is related and regressed to these attributes in many divisions intermediately. Progressive numerical understanding in many essential human behavior acts on the application of practical behavior standard in production word and operation.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.287-297
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• 2022

The objective of this study was to evaluate the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption. One hundred fifty-six oyster samples were collected to examine the norovirus prevalence. The oyster samples were inoculated with murine norovirus and stored at 4℃-25℃. A plaque assay determined norovirus titers. The norovirus titers were fitted with the Baranyi model to calculate shoulder period (h) and death rate (Log PFU/g/h). These kinetic parameters were fitted to a polynomial model as a function of temperature. Distribution temperature and time were surveyed, and consumption data were surveyed. A dose-response model was also searched through literature. The simulation model was prepared with these data in @RISK to estimate the probability of norovirus foodborne. One sample of 156 samples was norovirus positive. Thus, the initial contamination level was estimated by the Beta distribution (2, 156), and the level was -5.3 Log PFU/g. The developed predictive models showed that the norovirus titers decreased in oysters under the storage conditions simulated with the Uniform distribution (0.325, 1.643) for time and the Pert distribution (10, 18, 25) for temperature. Consumption ratio of raw oyster was 0.98%, and average consumption amount was 1.82 g, calculated by the Pert distribution [Pert {1.8200, 1.8200, 335.30, Truncate (0, 236.8)}]. ₁F₁ hypergeometric dose-response model [1 - (1 + 2.55 × 10^-3 × dose)^-0.086] was appropriate to evaluate dose-response. The simulation showed that the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption was 5.90 × 10^-10 per person per day. The annual socioeconomic cost of consuming raw oysters contaminated with norovirus was not very high.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.1337-1345
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• 2018

The reliability of power transmission and distribution depends up on the consistency of insulation in the high voltage power transformer. In recent times, considering the drawbacks of conventional mineral oils such as poor biodegradability and poor fire safety level, several research works are being carried out on natural ester based nanofluids. Earlier research works show that sunflower oil has similar dielectric characteristics compared with mineral oil. BIOTEMP oil which is now commercially available in the market for transformers is based on sunflower oil. Addition of nanofillers in the base oil improves the dielectric characteristics of liquid insulation. Only few results are available in the literature about the insulation characteristics of nano modified natural esters. Hence understanding the influence of addition of nanofillers in the dielectric properties of sunflower oil and collecting the database is important. Considering these facts, present work contributes to investigate the important characteristics such as partial discharge, lightning impulse, breakdown strength, tandelta, volume resistivity, viscosity and thermal characteristics of $SiO_2$ nano modified sunflower oil with different wt% concentration of nano filler material varied from 0.01wt% to 0.1wt%. From the obtained results, nano modified sunflower oil shows better performance than virgin sunflower oil and hence it may be a suitable candidate for power transformer applications.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.123-133
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• 2010

There are many occasions on which the critical decisions should be made in software projects. Those decisions are basically related to estimating and predicting project parameters such as costs, efforts, and duration. The project managers are looking for methods to make better decisions. The decisions about project parameters are recommended to be performed based on historical data of Similar projects. The measures of the tasks in past projects may have different shapes of distributions. we need to add those measures to get a predicted project measures. To add measures with different shapes of distribution, we need to use Monte Carlo Simulation. In this paper, we suggest applying Monte Carlo Simulation for supporting decision makings in software project. We implemented best-fit case and scheduling estimations with Cristal Ball, a commercial product of Monte Carlo simulation and showed how the suggested approach supports those critical decision makings.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2007년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.327-330
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• 2007

기존의 시뮬레이션 일정기법은 최종공사기간(Project Completion Times: PCTs)이 정규분포를 따른다는 가정을 전제로 한다. 그러나 본 논문에서는 이 가정이 항상 옳은 것이 아니며, 이것이 잘못된 결과를 초래할 수 있다는 것을 검증한다. 이처럼 의문이 제기되지 않고 받아들여져 온 가정이 시뮬레이션 분석 결과에 어떠한 영향을 줄 수 있는지를 밝혀내는 리키스 정량화기법(risk Quantification method)을 MATLAB 알고리즘으로 구현하였으며, 네트워크의 모델링에서부터 시뮬레이션 출력 값들로 구성된 샘플집단들에 대한 분석에 이르기까지 전 단계를 MATLAB 프로그래밍으로 구현된 알고리즘을 사용하여 제기된 의문에 대한 답을 제시하였다. 특정 네트워크를 구성하는 엑티비티 기간 값들을 정의하는 확률분포함수의 종류를 다양하게 변화시켜 시뮬레이션 결과 값들 - 최종공사기간 값들 - 을 생성하고, 이처럼 생성된 시뮬레이션 출력 값들로 구성된 샘플집단들의 확률 통계적 특성을 분석하였다. 본 연구는 시뮬레이션을 기반으로 하는 일정관리기법의 신뢰성을 향상시키며, 일정관련 리시크 분석의 정확성을 향상시키는데 기여할 것이다.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• 제25권9호
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• pp.463-472
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• 2022

In this study, a microbial risk assessment was performed for the bacteria Vibrio parahaemolyticus, which causes a foodborne illness following the consumption of Jeotgal, a fermented seafood in South Korea. The assessment comprised of six stages: product, market, home, consumption, dose-response, and risk. The initial contamination level (IC) was calculated based on the prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus in 90 Jeotgal samples. The kinetic behavior of V. parahaemolyticus was described using predictive models. The data on transportation conditions from manufacturer to market and home were collected through personal communication and from previous studies. Data for the Jeotgal consumption status were obtained, and an appropriate probability distribution was established. The simulation models responding to the scenario were analyzed using the @RISK program. The IC of V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using beta distribution [Beta (1, 91)]. The cell counts during transportation were estimated using Weibull and polynomial models [δ = 1 / (0.0718 - 0.0097 × T + 0.0005 × T²)], while the probability distributions for time and temperature were estimated using Pert, Weibull, Uniform, and LogLogistic distributions. Daily average consumption amounts were assessed using the Pareto distribution [0.60284,1.32,Risk Truncate(0,155)]. The results indicated that the risk of V. parahaemolyticus infection through Jeotgal consumption is low in South Korea.