• 한국IT서비스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국IT서비스학회 2007년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.145-156
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• 2007

In the previous e-government studies, there was no study in which the ambitious problem of assessing the expected performance of an e-government software when it is adopted in other country. This study was motivated to propose a new method to resolve this research question. With using the KIPONet (Korean Intellectual Property Office Net) as a target e-government software, which has been successfully implemented and operated by the Republic of Korea government since Jan 1999 for the purpose of managing the intellectual property rights (IPRs), we propose a Hybrid Qualitative Reasoning (HQR) approach to predicting the expected performance of the KIPONet. The main recipes of the HQR are that the HQR considers causal relationships existing among both qualitative and quantitative variables of the KIPONet, and that uncertainties embedded in some variables are handled by using Monte Carlo mechanism. The application of the proposed HQR to predicting the expected performance of the KIPONet results in statistically significant outcomes with 95% confidence level.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.62-72
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• 2011

최근 건설 환경의 급변화로 인해 건설 프로젝트의 실패 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 이러한 이유로 건설 산업에서는 합리적인 프로젝트 관리전략을 수립하기 위하여 프로젝트의 성과에 영향을 미치는 성공요인에 대한 다각적인 연구가 제시되고 있다. 하지만 프로젝트 성과에 영향을 미치는 요인들의 개선 여부에 따른 혼재로 합리적인 성과관리가 힘든 상황이며, 특히 개선 불가능한 요인인 프로젝트 특성은 성과에 영향을 미치는 독립변수로 성과 도출의 난이도를 결정하게 됨에도 불구하고 이에 대한 연구는 미비한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 성과지표와 특성지표체계를 이용하여 성과와 특성간의 영향관계를 밝혀내고 그 결과를 퍼지이론으로 정량화하여 성과 난이도 지수를 산정하며 특성간의 중요도를 고려하여 최종적으로 성과 난이도를 예측하는 연구과정을 수행하였다. 또한 성과 난이도 예측에 있어서 시간과 노력을 절감하여 효율적인 프로젝트 관리 전략을 수립하기 위해서 시공자가 서로 다른 프로젝트의 특성을 입력함에 따라 프로젝트의 각 성과영역에 어떠한 난이도를 갖는지 미리 예측하고 정량적으로 평가할 수 있는 프로젝트 성과 난이도 예측 시스템을 개발하였다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.145-154
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• 2014

Performance based design(PBD) is the method to make a fire safety design against them after predicting the factors of fire risk in a building. Therefore, predicting fire risk in a building is very important process in PBD. For predicting fire risk of a building, an engineer of PBD must consider various factors such as ignition location, ignition point, ignition source, first ignited item, second ignited item, flash over, the state of door and fire suppression system. But, it is difficult to trust fire safety capacity of the design because the process in Korea' PBD is unprofessional and unreasonable. This paper had surveyed some cases of PBD that had been made in Korea to find the problems of the process to predict fire risk. And it have proposed the improvements of process to predict fire risk of a building.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.45-70
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• 2002

This paper examines the role of distance learning self-efficacy, belief in one's capabilities of using a system in the accomplishment of web-based distance learning, in predicting user intention to use and performance of distance learning system. It used self-efficacy theory and technology acceptance model(TAM) to build a model that predicts relationships between antecedents to students' distance learning self-efficacy assessments and their behavioral and attitudinal consequences. The model was tested using LISREL analysis on the sample of 250 students who have worked with the Distance Learning System. The results indicated partial support for the conceptual model. In accordance with TAM, perceived usefulness had strong direct effects on intention to use and performance, while perceived ease of use had both direct and indirect effects on intention to use, but not performance. Distance learning self-efficacy had only direct effect on perceived ease of use to use. Computer experience was found to have a strong positive effect on distance learning self-efficacy, and computer anxiety had a negative effect on distance learning self-efficacy. Implications of these findings are discussed for researchers and practitioners.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1043-1050
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• 2022

Markov chains and Monte Carlo Simulation were applied to account for the probabilistic nature of pavement deterioration over time using data collected in the field. The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate pavement network performance of Western Australia (WA) by applying the existing pavement management tools relevant to WA road construction networks. Two approaches were used to analyze the pavement networks: evaluating current pavement performance data to assess WA State Road networks and predicting the future states using past and current pavement data. The Markov chains process and Monte Carlo Simulation methods were used to predicting future conditions. The results indicated that Markov chains and Monte Carlo Simulation prediction models perform well compared to pavement performance data from the last four decades. The results also revealed the impact of design, traffic demand, and climate and construction standards on urban pavement performance. This study recommends an appropriate and effective pavement engineering management system for proper pavement design and analysis, preliminary planning, future pavement maintenance and rehabilitation, service life, and sustainable pavement construction functionality.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• 제17권3E호
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• pp.22-26
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• 1998

This paper proposes a simple method to measure system's performance in target tracking problems. Essentially employing the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) on tracking accuracy, an algorithm of predicting system's performance under various scenarios is developed. The input data is a collection of measurements over tim from sensors embedded in Gaussian noise. The target of interest may not maneuver over the processing time interval while the own ship observing platform may maneuver in an arbitrary fashion. The proposed approach is demonstrated and discussed through simulation results.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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• pp.581-586
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• 2004

This paper presents Newtonian formulation of the dynamics of plates treated fully with Active Constrained Layer Damping (ACLD). The developed equations of the plate/ACLD system provide analytical models far predicting the dynamic of laminated plates subjected to passive and active vibration damping controls. Numerical solutions of the analytical models are presented fir simply-supported plates in order to study the performance of the plate/ACLD system for different control strategies. The developed models present invaluable means for designing and predicting the performance of the smart laminated plates that can be used in many critical engineering applications.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 1998년도 하계종합학술대회논문집
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• pp.635-638
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• 1998

This paper proposes a simple method to measure system's performance in target tracking problems. Essentially employing the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) on trakcing accuracy, an algorithm of predicting system's performance under various scenarios is developed. The input data is a collection of measurements over time fromsensors embedded in gaussian noise. The target of interest may not maneuver over the processing time interval while the own ship observing platform may maneuver in an arbitrary fashion. Th eproposed approach is demonstrated and discussed through simulation results.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 1999년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.209-217
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• 1999

A catenary system should be designed to be an uniform elasticity over a span in order to maintain the lowest possible loss of contact between a pantograph and a contact wire. A elasticity disuniformity of a catenary can be regarded as a important design factor used for predicting the current collection performance for a catenary. There are a couple of formulas to calculate elasticity disuniformity of a catenary according to the literature survey, The effectiveness of these formulas is reviewed by performing catenary elasticity and loss of contact analysis for 5 different configurations of catenary systems using a beam element based FEM program, KRRI developed program, and the loss of contact by GASENDO, RTRI developed program, respective]y. The results reveals that these formulas are not suitable to predict the current collection performance for a catenary. Therefore, a new formula based on the standard deviation of the elasticity over a span is proposed in this study. The analysis results show that the new formula for an elasticity disuniformity of a catenary is very effective in predicting the current collection performance for a catenary.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.103-108
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• 2007

This paper presents the conceptual framework for estimating and predicting system's susceptibility to failure as function of condition parameter value which is representing the current status of performance measure using on-line performance reliability. The performance of such system depends on one parameter with a probability distribution that degrades with time gracefully. Performance reliability represents the probability that physical performance will remain satisfactory over a finite period of time or usage cycles in the future. An empirical physical performance function is constructed to incorporate explanatory variables (operating and environmental conditions) over a time or usage dimension. This function enables one to model device performance and the associated classical reliability measures simultaneously, in the performance domain and time domain. The conditional performance reliability structure developed represents a tool to predict system performance over time or usage for next usage period. By enabling such a framework, it can bring us more efficient planning and execution in system's operation control as well as maintenance to reduce costs and/or increase profits.