• Title/Summary/Keyword: Performance Risk

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Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.

China's Government Audit and Governance Efficiency of Companies: Analyses of Listed Companies Controlled By China's Central State-Owned Enterprises (중국의 정부감사와 기업의 관리효율성 : 중국 중앙기업 상장자회사 분석)

  • Choe, Kuk-Hyun;Sun, Quan
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.55-75
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    • 2018
  • In China, different from the private enterprises or the locally-administered state enterprises, central state-owned enterprises generally spread over cornerstone industry which is greatly influenced by the public policy, which results in the objective existence of government influence in their productive activities. As the strategic resource, listed companies controlled by central state-owned enterprises, mostly distributed in the lifeblood and security of key industries. Therefore, listed companies controlled by central state-owned enterprises' governance efficiency play an important role in optimal allocation of state-owned assets, improve capital operation, improve the return on capital, and maintain state-owned assets safety. As the immune systems of national governance, the government audit strengthen the supervision of listed companies controlled by central state-owned enterprises in case of the loss of state-owned assets and significant risk events occur, to ensure that the value of state-owned assets. As an important component of national governance, government audit produced in entrusted with the economic responsibility of public relationship. Government audit can play an important role in maintaining financial security and corruption, and also improve listed company's accounting stability and transparency. While government audit can improve governance efficiency and maintain state-owned assets safety, present literature is scarce. Under the corporate governance theory and the economical responsibility theory, the thesis select data from 2010-2017 to verify the relationship between government audit and listed companies controlled by central state-owned enterprises' corporate performance. Results show that listed companies controlled by central state-owned enterprises are more likely to be audited by government of poor performance. Results also show that the government audit will have a promoting effect on listed companies controlled by central state-owned enterprises, and through to the improvement of the governance efficiency will enhance its companies' value. The results show that China's government audit has appealing role in accomplishing central state-owned enterprises to realize the business objectives and in promoting the governance efficiency.

Recognition and Request for Medical Direction by 119 Emergency Medical Technicians (119 구급대원들이 지각하는 의료지도의 필요성 인식과 요구도)

  • Park, Joo-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2011
  • Purpose : The purpose of emergency medical services(EMS) is to save human lives and assure the completeness of the body in emergency situations. Those who have been qualified on medical practice to perform such treatment as there is the risk of human life and possibility of major physical and mental injuries that could result from the urgency of time and invasiveness inflicted upon the body. In the emergency medical activities, 119 emergency medical technicians mainly perform the task but they are not able to perform such task independently and they are mandatory to receive medical direction. The purpose of this study is to examine the recognition and request for medical direction by 119 emergency medical technicians in order to provide basic information on the development of medical direction program suitable to the characteristics of EMS as well as for the studies on EMS for the sake of efficient operation of pre-hospital EMS. Method : Questionnaire via e-mail was conducted during July 1-31, 2010 for 675 participants who are emergency medical technicians, nurses and other emergency crews in Gyeongbuk. The effective 171 responses were used for the final analysis. In regards to the emergency medical technicians' scope of responsibilities defined in Attached Form 14, Enforcement regulations of EMS, t-test analysis was conducted by using the means and standard deviation of the level of request for medical direction on the scope of responsibilities of Level 1 & Level 2 emergency medical technicians as the scale of medical direction request. The general characteristics, experience result, the reason for necessity, emergency medical technicians & medical director request level, medical direction method, the place of work of the medical director, feedback content and improvement plan request level were analyzed through frequency and percentage. The level of experience in medical direction and necessity were analyzed through ${\chi}^2$ test. Results : In regards to the medical direction experience per qualification, the experience was the highest with 53.3% for Level 1 emergency medical technicians and 80.3% responded that experience was helpful. As for the recognition on the necessity of medical direction, 71.3% responded as "necessary" and it turned out to be the highest of 76.9% in nurses. As for the reason for responding "necessary", the reason for reducing the risk and side-effects from EMS for patients was the largest(75.4%), and the reason of EMS delay due to the request of medical direction was the highest(71.4%) for the reason for responding "not necessary". In regards to the request level of the task scope of emergency medical technicians, injection of certain amount of solution during a state of shock was the highest($3.10{\pm}.96$) for Level 1 emergency rescuers, and the endotracheal intubation was the highest($3.12{\pm}1.03$) for nurses, and the sublingual administration of nitroglycerine(NTG) during chest pain was the highest($2.62{\pm}1.02$) for Level 2 emergency medical technicians, and regulation of heartbeat using AED was the highest($2.76{\pm}.99$) for other emergency crews. For the revitalization of medical direction, the improvement in the capability of EMS(78.9%) was requested from emergency crew, and the ability to evaluate the medical state of patient was the highest(80.1%) in the level of request for medical director. The prehospital and direct medical direction was the highest(60.8%) for medical direction method, and the emergency medical facility was the highest(52.0%) for the placement of medical director, and the evaluation of appropriateness of EMS was the highest(66.1%) for the feedback content, and the reinforcement of emergency crew(emergency medical technicians) personnel was the highest(69.0%) for the improvement plan. Conclusion : The medical direction is an important policy in the prehospital EMS activity because 119 emergency medical technicians agreed the necessity of medical direction and over 80% of those who experienced medical direction said it was helpful. In addition, the simulation training program using algorithm and case study through feedback are necessary in order to enhance the technical capability of ambulance teams on the item of professional EMS with high level of request in the task scope of emergency medical technicians, and recognition of medical direction is the essence of the EMS field. In regards to revitalizing medical direction, the improvement of the task performance capability of 119 emergency medical technicians and medical directors, reinforcement of emergency medical activity personnel, assurance of trust between emergency medical technicians and the emergency physician, and search for professional operation plan of medical direction center are needed to expand the direct medical direction method for possible treatment beforehand through the participation by medical director even at the step in which emergency situation report is received.

The Impacts of Entrepreneurial Proclivity and Merchandising Strategy on Conventional Market and Its Policy Implications (한국 재래시장상인의 창업가정신과 상품화 전략이 시장이미지와 경영성과에 미치는 영향과 재래시장 정책에 대한 시사점)

  • Suh, Geun-Ha;Yoon, Sung-Wook;Suh, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.71-100
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    • 2009
  • The main purpose of this study is to define relevant factors that influence successful start-ups and management innovations of traditional markets from the point of market structures and relations. To do this, we devide an entrepreneurship of merchant into two factors, risk taking and managerial experience and choose product planning and its implementation to see merchandising of traditional markets. In this study we identify that several factors we chose are contributing to generating management performances through market promotional parameters. Also we confirm that image factors of traditional markets is consist of awareness and value of markets, and that these factors shows some sequential and continual patterns in the course of generating performances. In additions, it is identified that four independent factors have positive effects to star-up success; risk taking 0.29(t 2.61), managerial experience 0.04(t 1.79), merchandising implementation 0.374(t 2.61), market value 0.47(t 5.25), market awareness 0.22(t 2.30). This study can help merchants of traditional markets to make and change their market strategies, restructure their businesses and survive in the field. This also provide some ideas and guidances to relevant government agencies in formulating traditional market policies.

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An Overview of Readjustment Measures Against the Banking Industry's Non-Performing Loans (은행부실채권(銀行不實債權) 정리방안(整理方案)에 대한 고찰(考察))

  • Kim, Joon-kyung
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.35-63
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    • 1991
  • Currently, Korea's banking industry holds a sizable amount of non-performing loans which stem from the government-led bailout of many troubled firms in the 1980s. Although this burden was somewhat relieved with the aid of banks' recapitalization in the booming securities market between 1986-88, the insolvent credits still resulted in low profitability in the banking sector and have been detrimental to the progress of financial liberalization and internationalization. This paper surveys the corporate bailout experiences of major advanced countries and Korea in the past and derives a rationale for readjustment measures against non-performing loans, in which rescue plans depend on the nature of the financial system. Considering the features of Korea's financial system and the banking sector's recent performance, it discusses possible means of liquidation in keeping with the rationale. The conflict of interests among parties involved in non-performing loans is widely known as one of the major constraints in writing off the loans. Specifically, in the case of Korea, the government's excessive intervention in allocating credits has preempted the legitimate role of the banking sector, which now only passively manages its past loans, and has implicitly confused private with public risk. This paper argues that to minimize the incidence of insolvent loan readjustment, the government's role should be reduced and that the correspondent banks should be more active in the liquidation process, through the market mechanism, reflecting their access to detailed information on the troubled firms. One solution is that banks, after classifying the insolvent loans by the lateness or possibility of repayment, would swap the relatively sound loans for preferred stock and gradually write off the bad ones by expanding the banks' retained earnings and revaluing the banks' assets. Specifically, the debt-equity swap can benefit both creditors and debtors in the sense that it raises the liquidity and profitability of bank assets and strengthens the debtor's financial structure by easing the debt service burden. Such a creditor-led or market-led solution improves the financial strength and autonomy of the banking sector, thereby fostering more efficient resource allocation and risk sharing.

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Effects for kangaroo care: systematic review & meta analysis (캥거루 케어가 미숙아와 어머니에게 미치는 효과 : 체계적 문헌고찰 및 메타분석)

  • Lim, Junghee;Kim, Gaeun;Shin, Yeonghee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.599-610
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    • 2016
  • This paper reports the results of a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis research to compare the effect of Kangaroo care, targeting mothers and premature infants. A randomized clinical trial study was performed until February 2015. The domestic literature contained the non-randomized clinical trial research without restriction according to the level of the study design. A search of the Ovid-Medline, CINAHL, PubMed and KoreaMed, the National Library of KOREA, the National Assembly Library, NDSL, KISS and RISS. Through the KMbase we searched and combined the main term ((kangaroo OR KC OR skin-to-skin) AND (care OR contact)) AND (infant OR preterm OR Low Birth Weight OR LBW), ((kangaroo OR kangaroo OR kangaroo) AND (care OR nursing care OR management OR skin contact)) was made; these were all combined with a keywords search through the selection process. They were excluded in the final 25 studies (n=3051). A methodology checklist for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) designed by SIGN (Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network) was utilized to assess the risk of bias. The overall risk of bias was regarded as low. In 16 studies that were evaluated as a grade of "++", 9 studies were evaluated as a grade of "+". As a result of meta-analysis, kangaroo care regarding the effects of premature mortality, severe infection/sepsis had an insignificant effect. Hyperthermia incidence, growth and development (height and weight), mother-infant attachment, hypothermia incidence, length of hospital days, breast feeding rate, sleeping, anxiety, confidence, and gratification of mothering role were considered significant. In satisfaction of the role performance, depression and stress presented contradictory research results for individual studies showing overall significant difference. This study has some limitations due to the few RCTs comparing kangaroo care in the country. Therefore, further RCTs comparing kangaroo care should be conducted.

Frequency, Clinical Characteristics and Correlates of Premenstrual Syndrome in High School Students (여고생에서 월경전 증후군의 빈도와 임상적 특징 및 관련요인)

  • Chang, Hyung-Joo;Jeong, Hyun-Ghang;Ko, Young-Hoon;Han, Chang-Su;Joe, Sook-Haeng
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.44-54
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    • 2013
  • Objectives : To investigate the frequency and clinical characteristics of premenstrual syndrome(PMS)/premenstrual dysphoric disorder(PMDD) in high school students, and determine the correlates of PMS/PMDD in association with comorbid depression and anxiety. Methods : A total of 1688 students were recruited from 5 high schools in Seoul, Korea. Subjects completed the questionnaire composed of scales to measure premenstrual symptoms, depression, and anxiety, as well as sociodemographic and reproductive variables. Subjects were categorized into 3 groups by using the Premenstrual Symptom Screening Tool(PSST) to determine the frequency and clinical characteristics of PMS/PMDD. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the correlates of PMS/PMDD. Results : The frequency of moderate to severe PMS and PMDD was 20.1% and 6.4%, respectively. Irritability(78.8%), fatigue(76.4%), and emotional sensitivity(69.8%) were common premenstrual symptoms, and functional impairment in academic performance(67.1%) was dominant. Dysmenorrhea[odd ratio(OR)=3.68, 95% confidence interval(CI) 2.45-5.55], family history of PMS(OR=1.91, 95% CI 1.35-2.71), and use of oral contraceptive (OR=1.85, 95% CI 1.16-2.94) were associated with the increased risk of PMS/PMDD after adjustment for depression and anxiety. Negative attitude to menses(OR=15.60, 95% CI 3.61-67.42) was associated with the increased risk of PMS/PMDD, particularly in subjects without depression and anxiety. Conclusions : PMS was common, as the frequency of PMS more than moderate severity including PMDD exceeded 25%, and disrupted daily functioning in adolescents. PMS is associated with various sociodemographic and menstrual characteristics, and these associations are affected by comorbid depression and anxiety.

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A Study on Hepatomegaly and Facial Telangiectasia in a Group of the Insured (간종대(肝腫大)와 안면모세혈관확장(顔面毛細血管擴張)의 보험의학적연구(保險醫學的硏究))

  • Im, Young-Hoon
    • The Journal of the Korean life insurance medical association
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.110-132
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    • 1987
  • A study on hepatomegaly detected by abdominal palpation, and facial telangiectasia in a total of 3,418 insured persons medically examined at the Honam Medical Room of Dong Bang Life Insurance Company Ltd. from February, 1984 to August, 1985 was undertaken. The results were as follows: 1) Hepatomegaly was found in 383 cases(27.5%) among the 1,395 insureds of male and in 163 cases(8.1%) among the 2,023 insureds of female. The difference of incidence of hepatomegaly between all males and females showed statistical significance(p<0.001). In each age group, the incidence of hepatomegaly in :nale was higher than that in female. The incidence of hepatomegaly in each age group in male increased cnosiderably with age; it showed 11.6%,16.2%, 42.6% and 52.9% from second to sixth decade in order, thereafter in seventh decade it decreased to 26.7%, While the incidence of hepatomegaly in female increased slightly in each age group. 2) Facial telangiectasia was found in 318 cases(22.8%) among all males and in 157 cases(7.8%) among all females. The difference of incidence of telangiectasia between all males and females showed statistical significance(p<0.001). In each age group, the incidence of telangiectasia in male was higher than that in female, except of second decade. The incidence of facial telangiectasia in each age group in male increased considerably with age; while it increased slightly in female. 3) Facial telangiectasia accompanied by hepatomegaly was found in 235 cases(61.4%) among 383 cases of hepatomegaly in male and in 69 cases(42.3%) among 163 cases of hepatomegaly in female. The difference of incidence of telangiectasia between males and females show ed statistical significance(p<0.001). 4) Facial telangiectasia without spider angiomata accompanied by hepatomegaly was found in 201 cases(52.5%) among 383 cases of hepatomegaly in all males and in 67 casgs(41.4%) among 163 cases of hepatomegaly in all females; facial spider angiomata accompanied by hepatomegaly was found in 34 cases(8.9%) among 383 cases of hepatomegaly in all males and in 2 cases(1.2%) among 163 cases of hepatomegaly in all females. 5) Abnormal SGOT activity was found in 19 cases(7.9%) among 242 cases of hepatomegaly in all males and in one case(1.5%) among 67 cases of hepatomegaly in all females. The difference of incidence of abnormal SGOT activity showed statistical significance(p<0.001). The incidence of abnormal SGOT activity by the size of hepatomegaly, that is, palpated <1 finger's breadth, <2 fingers' breadth and ${\geqq}2$ fingers' breadth, revealed 2.2%, 6.0% and 60.0% respectively in all males, while abnormal SGOT activity was found only one case in fifth decade among 67 cases of hepatomegaly in all females. 6) In ordinary medical examination(the insured amount is low) abnormal SGOT activity was found in 7 cases(4.8%) among 146 cases of hepatomegaly palpated $1\frac{1}{2}$ fingers' breadth and under, while it was not found in 37 cases of the same sized hepatomegaly in all females. Above mentioned 7 cases are thought to be very significant because 7 cases occupy 35% in 20 cases of abnormal SGOT activity with hepatomegaly. 7) Abnormal SGOT activity was found in 12 cases(4.4%) among 273 cases of hepatomegaly of "not firm" consistency, while it was found in 8 cases(22.2%) among 36 cases of hepatomegaly of "firm" consistency. The difference of incidence of abnormal SGOT activity showed statistical significance(p<0.05). 8) Abnormal SGOT activity was found in 5 cases(17.9%) among 28 cases of spider angiomata with hepatomegaly, while it was found in 10 cases(7.3%) among 166 cases of telangiectasia without spider angiomata with hepatomegaly. Owing to a small number of cases, statistical significance was not recognized, but the incidence of abnormal SGOT activity in spider angiomata cases with hepatomegaly is apt to be higher than that in telangiectasia cases without spider angiomata with hepatomegaly. 9) The incidence of abnormal SGOT activity is apt to be higher with age in male group; abnormal SGOT activity was not found among 4 cases of hepatomegaly in second decade and it was 3.8% in third decade, 4.5% in fourth decade, 9.3% in fifth decade, 17.5% in sixth decade and 33.3% in seventh decade, while the incidence of it was only one case among 67 cases in all females. 10) It is believed that the performance of liver function test to the subjects with hepatomegaly even in ordinary medical examination(the insured amount is low) will give considerable contribution for medical selection of hepatomegaly risk. 11) Age of the insured(young or old), presence of facial telangiectasia or spider angiomata especially and their severity, and consistency of enlarged liver(firm or not) should be considered to increase accuracy in evaluating hepatomegaly risk.

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A Study on EC Acceptance of Virtual Community Users (가상 공동체 사용자의 전자상거래 수용에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyoung-Yong;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 2009
  • Virtual community(VC) will increasingly be organized as commercial enterprises, with the objective of earning an attractive financial return by providing members with valuable resources and environment. For example, Cyworld.com in Korea uses several community services to enable customers of Cyworld to take control of their own value as potential purchasers of products and services. Although initial adoption is important for online network service success, it does not necessarily result in the desired managerial performance unless the initial usage is continuously related to the continuous usage and purchase. Particularly, the customer who receives relevant online services and is well equipped with online network services, will trust the online service provider and perceive less risk and experience more activities such as continuous usage and purchase. Thus, how to promote continued online service usage or, alternatively, how to prevent discontinuance is a critical issue for VC service providers to consider. By aggregating a wide range of information and online environments for customers and providing trust to its members, the service providers of virtual communities help to reduce the perceived risk of continuous usage and purchase. Drill down, online service managers realize that achieving strong and sustained customers who continuously use online service and purchase on it is crucial. Therefore, the research into this online service continuance will identify the relationship between the initial usage and the continuous usage and purchase. The research of continuous usage or post adoption has recently emerged as an important issue in the IS literature. Individuals' information systems(IS) continuous usage decisions are congruent with consumers' repeat purchase decisions. The TAM(Technology Acceptance Model) paradigm has been strongly confirmed across a wide range from product purchase on EC to online service usage contexts. The analysis of IS usage based on TAM has proven to be successful across almost online service contexts. However, most of previous studies have focused on only an area (i.e., VC or EC). Just little research has tried to analyze the relationship between VC and EC. The effect of some factors on user intention, captured through several theories such as TAM, has been demonstrated. Yet, few studies have explored the salient relationships of VC users' EC acceptance. To fill this gap between VC and EC research, this paper attempts to develop a research model that extends the TAM perspective in view of the additional contributions of trust in the service provider and trust in members on some factors that affect EC and VC adoption. In this extension, we applied the TAM-to-TAM(T2T) model, and analyzed the transfer effect of trust between these two TAMs. The research model was empirically tested on the context of a social network service. The model was to extend TAM with the trust concept for the virtual community environment from the perspective of tasks. By building an extended model of TAM and examining the relationships between trust and the existing variables of TAM, it is aimed to explain a user's continuous intention to use VC and purchase on EC. The unit of analysis in this paper is an individual user of a virtual community. The population of interest is the individual with the experiences in virtual community. The data for this paper was made available via a Web survey of VC users. In total, 281 cases were gathered for about one week, but there were some missing values in the sample and there were some inappropriate cases. Thus, only 248 cases were finally analyzed. We chose the structural equation analysis to test the hypotheses and it is better suited for explaining complex relationships than the other methods. In this test, AMOS was used to test the Structural Equation Model (SEM). Noticeable results have been found in the T2T model regarding the factors affecting the intention to use of virtual community and loyalty. Our result showed that trust transfer plays a key role in forming the two adoption beliefs. Overall, this study preliminarily confirms the salience of trust transfer in online service.

Factors Predicting the Development of Radiation Pneumonitis in the Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy for Lung Cancer (방사선 치료를 시행 받은 폐암 환자에서 방사선 폐렴의 발생에 관한 예측 인자)

  • An, Jin Yong;Lee, Yun Sun;Kwon, Sun Jung;Park, Hee Sun;Jung, Sung Soo;Kim, Jin whan;Kim, Ju Ock;Jo, Moon Jun;Kim, Sun Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2004
  • Background : Radiation pneumonitis(RP) is the major serious complication of thoracic irradiation treatment. In this study, we attempted to retrospectively evaluate the long-term prognosis of patients who experienced acute RP and to identify factor that might allow prediction of RP. Methods : Of the 114 lung cancer patients who underwent thoracic radiotherapy between December 2000 and December 2002, We performed analysis using a database of 90 patients who were capable of being evaluated. Results : Of the 44 patients(48.9%) who experienced clinical RP in this study, the RP was mild in 33(36.6%) and severe in 11(12.3%). All of severe RP were treated with corticosteroids. The median starting corticosteroids dose was 34 mg(30~40) and median treatment duration was 68 days(8~97). The median survival time of the 11 patients who experienced severe RP was significantly poorer than the mild RP group. (p=0.046) The higher total radiation dose(${\geq}60Gy$) was significantly associated with developing in RP.(p=0.001) The incidence of RP did not correlate with any of the ECOG performance, pulmonary function test, age, cell type, history of smoking, radiotherapy combined with chemotherapy, once-daily radiotherapy dose fraction. Also, serum albumin level, uric acid level at onset of RP did not influence the risk of severe RP in our study. Conclusion : Only the higher total radiation dose(${\geq}60Gy$) was a significant risk factor predictive of RP. Also severe RP was an adverse prognostic factor.