• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
• /
• v.12 no.6
• /
• pp.251-258
• /
• 2023

It is necessary to predict peak load accurately in order to supply electric power and operate the power system stably. Especially, it is more important to predict peak load accurately in winter and summer because peak load is higher than other seasons. If peak load is predicted to be higher than actual peak load, the start-up costs of power plants would increase. It causes economic loss to the company. On the other hand, if the peak load is predicted to be lower than the actual peak load, blackout may occur due to a lack of power plants capable of generating electricity. Economic losses and blackouts can be prevented by minimizing the prediction error of the peak load. In this paper, the latest deep learning model such as TCN is used to minimize the prediction error of peak load. Even if the same deep learning model is used, there is a difference in performance depending on the hyper-parameters. So, I propose methods for optimizing hyper-parameters of TCN for predicting the peak load. Data from 2006 to 2021 were input into the model and trained, and prediction error was tested using data in 2022. It was confirmed that the performance of the deep learning model optimized by the methods proposed in this study is superior to other deep learning models.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.67 no.1
• /
• pp.96-102
• /
• 2018

For efficient operating strategy of electric power system, forecasting of daily peak electric load is an important but difficult problem. Therefore a daily peak electric load forecasting system using a neural network and fuzzy system is presented in this paper. First, original peak load data is interpolated in order to overcome the shortage of data for effective prediction. Next, the prediction of peak load using these interpolated data as input is performed in parallel by a neural network predictor and a fuzzy predictor. The neural network predictor shows better performance at drastic change of peak load, while the fuzzy predictor yields better prediction results in gradual changes. Finally, the superior one of two predictors is selected by the rules based on rough sets at every prediction time. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, the computer simulation is performed on peak load data in 2015 provided by KPX.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.39-49
• /
• 2013

This paper presents a method of improving the performance of a day-ahead 24-h load curve and peak load forecasting. The next-day load curve is forecasted using radial basis function (RBF) neural network models built using the best design parameters. To improve the forecasting accuracy, the load curve forecasted using the RBF network models is corrected by the weighted sum of both the error of the current prediction and the change in the errors between the current and the previous prediction. The optimal weights (called "gains" in the error correction) are identified by differential evolution. The peak load forecasted by the RBF network models is also corrected by combining the load curve outputs of the RBF models by linear addition with 24 coefficients. The optimal coefficients for reducing both the forecasting mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and the sum of errors are also identified using differential evolution. The proposed models are trained and tested using four years of hourly load data obtained from the Korea Power Exchange. Simulation results reveal satisfactory forecasts: 1.230% MAPE for daily peak load and 1.128% MAPE for daily load curve.

• Journal of IKEEE
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.388-398
• /
• 2021

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based peak shaving scheme using energy storage system (ESS) for electricity tariff reduction. The proposed scheme compares the actual load with the estimated load consumption, calculates the additional output power that the ESS needs to discharge additionally to reduce peak load, and adds the input. In addition, in order to compensate for the additional power, the process of allocating power to the determined point is performed, and an optimization that minimizes the average of the load expected at the active power allocations using PSO so that the allocated value does not affect the peak load. To investigated the performance of the proposed scheme, case study of small and large load prediction errors was conducted by reflecting actual load data and load prediction algorithm. As a result, when the proposed scheme is performed with the ESS charge and discharge control to reduce electricity tariff, even when the load prediction error is large, the peak load is successfully reduced, and the peak load reduction effect of 17.8% and electricity tariff reduction effect of 6.02% is shown.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2002.07a
• /
• pp.530-532
• /
• 2002

The contracted electric power and the demand factor of customers are used to predict the peak load in distribution transformers. The conventional demand factor was determined more than ten years ago. The contracted electric power and power demand have been increased. Therefore, we need to prepare the novel demand factor that appropriates at present. In this paper, we modify the demand factor to improve the peak load prediction of distribution transformers. To modify the demand factor, we utilize the 169 data acquisition devices for sample distribution transformers. The peak load currents were measured by the case studies using the actual load data, through which we verified that the proposed demand factors were correct than the conventional factors. A newly demand factor will be used to predict the peak load of distribution transformers.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
• /
• v.53 no.2
• /
• pp.87-96
• /
• 2004

This paper summarizes the research results of the load management for pole transformers done in 1997-1998 and 2000-2002. The purpose of the research is to enhance the accuracy of peak load estimation in pole transformers. We concentrated our effort on the acquisition of massive actual load data for modifying the load regression coefficients, which related to the peak load estimation of lamp-use customers, and adjusting the demand-factor coefficients, which used for the peak load prediction of motor-use customers. To enhance the load regression equations, the 264 load data acquisition devices are equipped to the sample pole transformers. For the modification of demand factor coefficients, the peak load currents are measured in each customer and pole transformer for 13 KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) distribution branch offices. Case studies for 50 sample pole transformers show that the proposed coefficients could reduce estimating error of the peak load for pole transformers, compared with the conventional one.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2011.06a
• /
• pp.1445-1446
• /
• 2011

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2002.11b
• /
• pp.41-43
• /
• 2002

The contracted electric power and the demand factor of customers are used to predict the peak load in distribution transformers. The conventional demand factor was determined more than ten years ago. The contracted electric power and power demand have been increased. Therefore, we need to prepare the novel demand factor that appropriates at present. In this paper, we modify the demand factor to improve the peak load prediction of distribution transformers. To modify the demand factor, we utilize the 169 data acquisition devices for sample distribution transformers in winter, spring summer. And, the peak load currents were measured by the case studies using the actual load data, through which we verified that the proposed demand factors were correct than the conventional factors. A newly demand factor will be used to predict the peak load of distribution transformers.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.16 no.3
• /
• pp.163-172
• /
• 2016

Electric load forecasting is essential for effective power system planning and operation. Complex and nonlinear relationships exist between the electric loads and their exogenous factors. In addition, time-series load data has non-stationary characteristics, such as trend, seasonality and anomalous day effects, making it difficult to predict the future loads. This paper proposes a locally-weighted polynomial neural network (LWPNN), which is a combination of a polynomial neural network (PNN) and locally-weighted regression (LWR) for daily shortterm peak load forecasting. Model over-fitting problems can be prevented effectively because PNN has an automatic structure identification mechanism for nonlinear system modeling. LWR applied to optimize the regression coefficients of LWPNN only uses the locally-weighted learning data points located in the neighborhood of the current query point instead of using all data points. LWPNN is very effective and suitable for predicting an electric load series with nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. To confirm the effectiveness, the proposed LWPNN, standard PNN, support vector regression and artificial neural network are applied to a real world daily peak load dataset in Korea. The proposed LWPNN shows significantly good prediction accuracy compared to the other methods.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
• /
• v.51 no.3
• /
• pp.109-117
• /
• 2002

High accuracy of the load forecasting for power systems improves the security of the power system and generation cost. However, the forecasting problem is difficult to handle due to the nonlinear and the random-like behavior of system loads as well as weather conditions and variation of economical environments. So far. many studies on the problem have been made to improve the prediction accuracy using deterministic, stochastic, knowledge based and artificial neural net(ANN) method. In the conventional load forecasting method, the load forecasting maximum error occurred for the holidays on Saturday and Monday. In order to reduce the load forecasting error of the daily peak load for the holidays on Saturday and Monday, fuzzy concept and linear regression theory have been adopted into the load forecasting problem. The proposed algorithm shows its good accuracy that the average percentage errors are 2.11% in 1996 and 2.84% in 1997.