• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.11
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• pp.7781-7787
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• 2015

The purpose of This paper is to address the development on supply-demand outlook model of aqua-cultured korean Flatfish and introduces a projection of supply-demand and market prices during 2015-2017 using developed model. The supply-demand outlook model is composed as a partial equilibrium model of Korean Flat fish. Each equation in the model is estimated by the econometric techniques. A reviews of the demand-outlook model stability is also carried out by the references based on RMSPE. MAPE, and Theil's inequality coefficients. According to the reference of RMSPE, the error rates of the forecasting values of the aqua culture area, culturing quantity, production quantity, market price show less than 4%, The production quantity and farm price are predicted respectively to be 42,561MT and 10,191KW per kg in 2017.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.629-643
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness and efficiency of a policy by comparing and analyzing the impact of the rice market isolation system and production adjustment system (strategic crops direct payment system that induces the cultivation of other crops instead of rice) on rice supply, rice price, and government's financial expenditure. To achieve this purpose, a rice supply and demand forecasting and policy simulation model was developed in this study using a partial equilibrium model limited to a single item (rice), a dynamic equation model system, and a structural equation system that reflects the casual relationship between variables with economic theory. The rice policy analysis model used a recursive model and not a simultaneous equation model. The policy is distinct from that of previous studies, in which changes in government's policy affected the price of rice during harvest and the lean season before the next harvest, and price changes affected the supply and demand of rice according to the modeling, that is, a more specific policy effect analysis. The analysis showed that the market isolation system increased government's financial expenditure compared to the production adjustment system, suggesting low policy financial efficiency, low policy effectiveness on target, and increased harvest price. In particular, the market isolation system temporarily increased the price during harvest season but decreased the price during the lean season due to an increase in ending stock caused by increased production and government stock. Therefore, a decrease in price during the lean season may decrease annual farm-gate prices, and the reverse seasonal amplitude is expected to intensify.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.51 no.2
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• pp.51-69
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries Outlook" monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.39-50
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• 2020

Purpose: Agriculture, which is heavily influenced by climate conditions, is one of the industries most affected by climate change. In this respect, various studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural market have been conducted. Since climate change is a long-term phenomenon for more than a decade, long-term projections of agricultural prices as well as climate variables are needed to properly analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural market. However, these long-term price projections are often major constraints on studies of climate changes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of climate changes on the Korean onion market using ex-post analysis approach in order to avoid the difficulties of long-term price projections. Research design, data and methodology: This study develops an annual dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean onion market. The behavioral equations of the model were estimated by OLS based on the annual data from 1988 to 2018. The modelling system is first simulated to have actual onion market conditions from 2014 to 2018 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming the climatic conditions under RCP8.5 over the same period. Scenario analyses were simulated by both comparative static and dynamic approach to evaluate the differences between the two approaches. Results: According to the empirical results, if the climate conditions under RCP8.5 were applied from 2014 to 2018, the yield of onion would increase by about 4%, and the price of onion would decrease from 3.7% to 17.4%. In addition, the average price fluctuation rate over the five years under RCP8.5 climate conditions is 56%, which is more volatile than 46% under actual climate conditions. Empirical results also show that the price decreases have been alleviated in dynamic model compared with comparative static model. Conclusions: Empirical results show that climate change is expected to increase onion yields and reduce onion prices. Therefore, the appropriate countermeasures against climate change in Korean onion market should be found in the stabilization of supply and demand for price stabilization rather than technical aspects such as the development of new varieties to increase productivity.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.63-73
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• 1999

It is generally believed that there is a trade-off between economic growth and environmental quality since pollutants are generated in the process of production and consumption of commodities. Several researchers have shown this prevailing belief using the short-term input-output models. The literature, however, shows that there have been few attempts to investigate the relationship using long-term forecasting models. This motivates the current paper. This paper attempts to build a reginal growth model in a partial equilibrium framework taking into consideration the requirements of capital invested for pollutant abatement. Model is largely neoclassical. Labor is assumed to move a region with high utility specified in regional per capita average was income and pollution level while capital is partially mobile to a region with high returns. The regional growth is explored in a phase diagram. The paper shows that there are two stable growth equilibria which a region can converge over time and that the equilibria are distinguished by the initial threshold capital stock that a region holds. If the initial capital stock of a region is over(under) than the threshold size, the region converges to the higher (lower) growth equilibrium over time. Moreover, based on this result an environmental quality enhancing policy is analyzed in the phase diagram. It has revealed that the policy calls for the relocation of growth equilibrium points, specifically speaking, it stimulates an increase in labor stock and a decrease in capital stock. Hence the paper has suggested that the prevailing belief which the environmental policy negatively impacts on a regional economic growth is not always true.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.62 no.4
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• pp.443-453
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• 2017

The performance of bolted side-plated (BSP) beams is affected by the degree of transverse partial interaction, which is a result of the interfacial slip caused by transverse shear transfer between the bolted steel plates and the reinforced concrete beams. However, explicit formulae for the transverse shear transfer profile have yet to be derived. In this paper, a simplified piecewise linear shear transfer model was proposed based on force superposition principle and simplification of shear transfer profiles derived from a previous numerical study. The magnitude of shear transfer was determined by force equilibrium and displacement compatibility condition. A set of design formulae for BSP beams under several basic load cases was also derived. Then the model was verified by test results. A worked example was also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed design formulae. This paper sheds some light on the shear force transfer mechanism of anchor bolts in BSP beams, and offers a practical method to evaluate the influence of transverse partial interaction in strengthening design.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.253-259
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• 2013

Investment scenarios in the transportation network design problem usually contain installation or expansion of multi-mode transportation links. When one applies the mode choice analysis and traffic assignment sequentially for each investment scenario, it is possible that the travel impedance used in the mode choice analysis is different from the user equilibrium cost of the traffic assignment step. Therefore, to estimate the travel impedance and mode choice accurately, one needs to develop a combined model for the mode choice and traffic assignment. In this paper, we derive the inverse demand and the excess demand functions for the multi-mode multinomial logit mode choice function and develop a combined model for the multi-mode variable demand traffic assignment problem. Using data from the regional O/D and network data provided by the KTDB, we compared the performance of the partial linearization algorithm with the Frank-Wolfe algorithm applied to the excess demand model and with the sequential heuristic procedures.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.103 no.3
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• pp.462-472
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• 2014

This study is aimed at developing a supply-demand model of wood products, and outlook for mid-term and long-term supply and demand for each products. The main wood products include sawnwood, plywood, particle board, fiberboard (MDF), and pulp. The partial equilibrium model is composed of supply function, import demand function, demand function, price relation function. With given parameters the outlook for year 2050 says that sawnwood, plywood, and fiberboard for domestic productions and imports are decreased. This may result from the increase of log prices from the inside and outside of the country because of the propensity for environment protection and the resource nationalism. On the other hand the supply of particle board and pulp will increase because they are made from wasted wood and chips.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.393-430
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• 2009

This study uses a computable partial-equilibrium model of the U.S. energy industry to evaluate sulfur dioxide concentrations under two environmental policies. The policies, generator-level emission caps and tradable allowances, are selected to yield identical aggregate emissions. Regional concentrations are found to vary across the two policies significantly. These variations translate into different losses for individual states, and, nationwide, to differences of hundreds of millions of dollars in aggregate health damages. Emission caps outperform allowances by $452 million. Caps favor the southwestern, south-central and southeastern states, where they deliver $840 million lower damages than the other policies, while they deliver $390 million higher damages In northern and northeastern states.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.135-149
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• 2017

The prediction of the actual ultimate capacity of confined concrete columns requires partial confinement utilization under eccentric loading. This is attributed to the reduction in compression zone compared to columns under pure axial compression. Modern codes and standards are introducing the need to perform extreme event analysis under static loads. There has been a number of studies that focused on the analysis and testing of concentric columns. On the other hand, the augmentation of compressive strength due to partial confinement has not been treated before. The higher eccentricity causes smaller confined concrete region in compression yielding smaller increase in strength of concrete. Accordingly, the ultimate eccentric confined strength is gradually reduced from the fully confined value $f_{cc}$ (at zero eccentricity) to the unconfined value $f^{\prime}_c$ (at infinite eccentricity) as a function of the ratio of compression area to total area of each eccentricity. This approach is used to implement an adaptive Mander model for analyzing eccentrically loaded columns. Generalization of the 3D moment of area approach is implemented based on proportional loading, fiber model and the secant stiffness approach, in an incremental-iterative numerical procedure to achieve the equilibrium path of $P-{\varepsilon}$ and $M-{\varphi}$ response up to failure. This numerical analysis is adapted to assess the confining effect in rectangular columns confined with conventional lateral steel. This analysis is validated against experimental data found in the literature showing good correlation to the partial confinement model while rendering the full confinement treatment unsafe.