• Title/Summary/Keyword: Parametric Study

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A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Functional Mapping of the Neural Basis for the Encoding and Retrieval of Human Episodic Memory Using ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET ({H_2}^{15}O$ PET을 이용한 정상인의 삽화기억 부호화 및 인출 중추 뇌기능지도화)

  • Lee, Jae-Sung;Nam, Hyun-Woo;Lee, Dong-Soo;Lee, Sang-Kun;Jang, Myoung-Jin;Ahn, Ji-Young;Park, Kwang-Suk;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: Episodic memory is described as an 'autobiographical' memory responsible for storing a record of the events in our lives. We performed functional brain activation study using ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET to reveal the neural basis of the encoding and the retrieval of episodic memory in human normal volunteers. Materials and Methods: Four repeated ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET scans with two reference and two activation tasks were performed on 6 normal volunteers to activate brain areas engaged in encoding and retrieval with verbal materials. Images from the same subject were spatially registered and normalized using linear and nonlinear transformation. Using the means and variances for every condition which were adjusted with analysis of covariance, t-statistic analysis were performed voxel-wise. Results: Encoding of episodic memory activated the opercular and triangular parts of left inferior frontal gyrus, right prefrontal cortex, medial frontal area, cingulate gyrus, posterior middle and inferior temporal gyri, and cerebellum, and both primary visual and visual association areas. Retrieval of episodic memory activated the triangular part of left inferior frontal gyrus and inferior temporal gyrus, right prefrontal cortex and medial temporal area, and both cerebellum and primary visual and visual association areas. The activations in the opercular part of left inferior frontal gyrus and the right prefrontal cortex meant the essential role of these areas in the encoding and retrieval of episodic memory. Conclusion: We could localize the neural basis of the encoding and retrieval of episodic memory using ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET, which was partly consistent with the hypothesis of hemispheric encoding/retrieval asymmetry.

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Three-Dimensional Limit Equilibrium Stability Analysis of Spile-Reinforced Shallow Tunnel

    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.101-122
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    • 1997
  • A spiting reinforcement system is composed of a series of radially installed reinforcing spites along the perimeter of the tunnel opening ahead of excavation. The reinforcing spill network is extended into the in-situ soil mass both radially and longitudinally The sailing reinforcement system has been successfully used for the construction of underground openings to reinforce weak rock formations on several occasions. The application of this spiting reinforcement system is currently extended to soft ground tunneling in limited occasions because of lack of reliable analysis and design methods. A method of threetimensional limit equilibrium stability analysis of the smile-reinforced shallow tunnel in soft ground is presented. The shape of the potential failure wedge for the case of smile-reinforced shallow tunnel is assumed on the basis of the results of three dimensional finite element analyses. A criterion to differentiate the spill-reinforced shallow tunnel from the smile-reinforced deep tunnel is also formulated, where the tunnel depth, soil type, geometry of the tunnel and reinforcing spites, together with soil arching effects, are considered. To examine the suitability of the proposed method of threedimensional stability analysis in practice, overall stability of the spill-reinforced shallow tunnel at facing is evaluated, and the predicted safety factors are compared with results from twotimensional analyses. Using the proposed method of threetimensional limit equilibrium stability analysis of the smile-reinforced shallow tunnel in soft ground, a parametric study is also made to investigate the effects of various design parameters such as tunnel depth, smile length and wadial spill spacing. With slight modifications the analytical method of threeiimensional stability analysis proposed may also be extended for the analysis and design of steel pipe reinforced multi -step grouting technique frequently used as a supplementary reinforcing method in soft ground tunnel construction.

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Effect of LI4-LI11 Electro-acupuncture on Regional Cerebral Blood Flow in Healthy Human - Evaluated by $^{99m}Tc-ECD$ Brain SPECT - (합곡-곡지 전침치료가 정상인의 뇌혈류에 미치는 영향 - Brain SPECT와 SPM을 이용하여 -)

  • Ryu Jong-Man;Kim Young-Suk;Park Sung-Uk;Jung Woo-Sang;Ko Chang-Nam;Cho Ki-Ho;Bae Hyung-Sup;Kim Deok-Yoon;Moon Sang-Kwan
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.27 no.2 s.66
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    • pp.36-43
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    • 2006
  • Objectives : Acupuncture has been widely applied to rehabilitation after stroke by Oriental medical doctors in Korea. It has been reported that acupuncture increased cerebral blood supply and stimulated the functional activity of brain nerve cells. In addition, a correlation between activation of specific areas of brain cortices and corresponding acupuncture stimulation at the therapeutic points had been well illustrated. rill now, however, there were few studies which evaluated a correlation between activation of specific areas of brain and frequently-used acupuncture therapy for stroke, such as LI4-LI11 electro-acupuncture (EA) for paresis after stroke. This study was undertaken to evaluate the effect of LI4-LI11 EA on regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in normal volunteers using Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT). Methods : In the resting state, $^{99m}Tc-ECD$ brain SPECT scans were performed on 10 normal volunteers (8 males, 2 females, mean age $25.6{\pm}2.3$years; age range from 24 to 31 years). 7 days after the resting examination, 15 minutes of electro-acupuncture were applied at LI 4 and LI 11 on the right side of the subjects. Immediately after LI4-LI11 EA, the second SPECT images were obtained in the same manner as the resting state. Significant increases and decreases of regional cerebral blood flow after LI4-LI11 EA were estimated by comparing their SPECT images with those of the resting state using paired t statistics at every voxel, which were analyzed by Statistical parametric mapping with a threshold of p=0.001, uncorrected (extent threshold: k=100 voxels). Results : EA applied at right LI4-LI11 increased rCBF in right frontopolar area (Brodmann area 10) and left middle frontal area (Brodmann area 46). Interestingly, all the areas showing increased rCBF corresponded to the territories of both anterior cerebral arteries. However, LI4-11 EA decreased rCBF in the left occipital lobe (peristriate area, Brodmann area 19). Conclusions : The results demonstrated a correlation between LI4-11 EA and rCBF increase in the frontal lobes. It is also suggested that there may be a correlation between LI meridian and the territory of the anterior cerebral arterties.

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Impacts of R&D and Smallness of Scale on the Total Factor Productivity by Industry (R&D와 규모의 영세성이 산업별 총요소생산성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Dong-Ki;Lee, Bu-Hyung;Joo, Won
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.71-102
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    • 2007
  • There were many comprehensive analyses conducted within the existing research activities wherein factors affecting technology progress including investment in R&D vis-${\Box}$-vis their influences act as the determinants of TFP. Note, however, that there were few comprehensive analysis in the industrial research performed regarding the impact of the economy of scale as it affects TFP; most of these research studies dealt with the analysis of the non -parametric Malmquist productivity index or used the stochastic frontier production function models. No comprehensive analysis on the impacts of individual independent variables affecting TFP was performed. Therefore, this study obtained the TFP increase rate of each industry by analyzing the factors of the existing growth accounting equation and comprehensively analyzed the TFP determinants by constructing a comprehensive analysis model considering the investment in R&D and economy of scale (smallness by industry) as the influencers of TFP by industry. First, for the TFP increase rate of the 15 industries as a whole, the annual average increase rate for 1993${\sim}$ 1997 was approximately 3.8% only; during 1999${\sim}$ 2000 following the foreign exchange crisis, however, the annual increase rate rose to approximately 7.8%. By industry, the annual average increase rate of TFP between 1993 and 2000 stood at 11.6%, the highest in the electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing business and IT manufacturing sector. In contrast, a -0.4% increase rate was recorded in the furniture and other product manufacturing sectors. In the case of the service industry, the TFP increase rate was 7.3% in the transportation, warehousing, and communication sectors. This is much higher than the 2.9% posted in the electricity, water, and gas sectors and -3.7% recorded in the wholesale, food, and hotel businesses. The results of the comprehensive analysis conducted on the determinants of TFP showed that the correlations between R&D and TFP in general were positive (+) correlations whose significance has yet to be validated; in the model where the self-employed and unpaid family workers were used as proxy variables indicating the smallness of industry out of the total number of workers, however, significant negative (-) correlations were noted. On the other hand, the estimation factors of variables surrogating the smallness of scale in each industry showed that a consistently high "smallness of scale" in an industry means a decrease in the increase rate of TFP in the same industry.

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Anatomical Structures of the Aortic Root in Koreans (한국인 대동맥 근부의 해부학적 구조)

  • Kang, Min-Woong;Yu, Jae-Hyeon;Lim, Seung-Pyung;Lee, Young;Kim, Si-Wook;Kim, Su-Il;Chung, In-Hyuk;Na, Myung-Hoon
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.40 no.5 s.274
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    • pp.321-328
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    • 2007
  • Background: It is very important to determine the surgical anatomy of the aortic root when performing spreading aortic root preserving heart surgery. This study focuses on the surgical aspect of the aortic root anatomy by performing dissection of Korean cadavers. Material and Method: The subjects were 62 cadavers. We measured the intercommissural distances, heights of the sinuses and the circumference of the sinotubular junction and the aortic annulus. Result: The mean age of death was 61.3 years. The intercommissural distance for the right coronary sinus was $0.73{\pm}2.23mm$, that for the non coronary sinus was $19.34{\pm}2.03mm$, and that for the left coronary sinus was $18.58{\pm}2.15mm$. The height of sinus was $20.59{\pm}2.48mm$ for the right coronary sinus, $18.61{\pm}2.26mm$ for the non coronary sinus and $17.95{\pm}19mm$ for the left coronary sinus. The circumference of the sinotubular junction was $70.73{\pm}5.94mm$ and that of the aortic annulus was $77.94{\pm}5.63mm$. There is no correlation between age and STJ, aortic annulus and the ratio of STJ of aortic annulus respectively (p=0.920, p=0.111, p=0.073). The tilting angle of the sinotubular junction and aortic annulus is from $2.03^{\circ}$ to $7.77^{\circ}$ $(mean=4.90^{\circ})$. Conclusion: The intercommissural distance and the height of the sinus were largest in the right coronary sinus, and the position of the sinotubular junction to the aortic annulus is obliquely tilted levo-posteriorly.

Quantitative Evaluation of Regional Cerebral Blood Flow by Visual Stimulation in $^{99m}Tc-HMPAO$ Brain SPECT ($^{99m}Tc-HMPAO$ 뇌 SPECT에서 시각자극에 의한 국소 뇌 혈류변화의 정량적 검증)

  • Juh, Ra-Hyeong;Suh, Tae-Suk;Kwark, Chul-Eun;Choe, Bo-Young;Lee, Hyoung-Koo;Chung, Yong-An;Kim, Sung-Hoon;Chung, Soo-Kyo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.166-176
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    • 2002
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of visual activation and quantitative analysis of regional cerebral blood flow. Visual activation was known to increase regional cerebral blood flow in the visual cortex in occipital lobe. We evaluated that change in the distribution of $^{99m}Tc-HMPAO$ (Hexamethyl propylene amine oxime) to reflect in regional cerebral blood flow. Materials and Methods: The six volunteers were injected with 925 MBq (mean ages: 26.75 years, n=6, 3men, 3women) underwent MRI and $^{99m}Tc-HMPAO$ SPECT during a rest state with closed eyes and visual stimulated with 8 Hz LED. We delineate the legion of interest and calculated the mean count per voxel in each of the fifteen slices to quantitative analysis. The ROI to whole brain ratio and regional index was calculated pixel to pixel subtraction visual non-activation image from visual activation image and constructed brain map using a statistical parameter map (SPM99). Results: The mean regional cerebral blood flow was increased due to visual stimulation. The increase rate of the mean regional cerebral blood flow which of the activation region in primary visual cortex of occipital lobe was $32.50{\pm}5.67%$. The significant activation sites using a statistical parameter of brain constructed a rendering image and image fusion with SPECT and MRI. Conclusion: Visual activation was revealed significant increase through quantitative analysis in visual cortex. Activation region was certified in Talairach coordinate and primary visual cortex (Ba17),visual association area (Ba18,19) of Brodmann.

Analysis of $^{99m}Tc-ECD$ Brain SPECT images in Boys and Girls ADHD using Statistical Parametric Mapping(SPM) (통계적 파라미터지도 작성법(SPM)을 이용한 남여별 ADHD환자의 뇌 SPECT 영상비교분석)

  • Park, Soung-Ock;Kwon, Soo-Il
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2004
  • Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)is one of the most common psychiatric disorders in childhood, especially school age children and persisting into adult. ADHD is affected 7.6% in our children, Korea. and persisting into $15{\sim}20%$ in adult. And it is characterized by hyperactivity, inattention and impulsivity. Brain imaging is one of way to diagnosis for ADHD. Brain imaging studies may be provide information two types - structural and functional imaging. Structural and functional images of the brain play an important role in management of neurologic and psyciatric disorders. Brain SPECT, with perfusion imaging radiopharmaceuticals is one of the appropriate test to diagnosis of neurologic and psychiatric diseases. Ther are a few studies about separated analysis between boys and girls ADHD SPECT brain images. Selection of Probability level(P-value) is very important to determind the abnormalities when analysis a data by SPM. SPM is a statistical method used for image analysis and determine statistical different between two groups-normal and ADHD. Commonly used P-value is P<0.05 in statistical analysis. The purpose of this study is to evaluation of blood flow clusters distribution, between boys and girls ADHD. The number of normal boys are 8(6-7y, average : $9.6{\pm}3.9y$) and 51(4-11y, average : $9.0{\pm}2.4$) ADHD patients, and normal girls are 4(6-12y, average : $9{\pm}2.4y$) and 13(2-13y, average $10{\pm}3.5y$) ADHD patiens. Blood flow tracer $^{99m}Tc-ethylcysteinate$ dimer(ECD) injected as rCBF agent and take blood flow images after 30 min. during sleeping by SPECT camera. The anatomical region of hyperperfusion of rCBF in boys ADHD group is posterior cingulate gyrus and hyperperfusion rate is 15.39-15.77% according to p-value. And girls ADHD group appears at posterior cerebellum, Lt. cerbral limbic lobe and Lt. Rt. cerebral temporal lobe. These areas hyperperfusion rate are 24.68-31.25%. Hypoperfusion areas in boys ADHD,s brain are Lt. cerebral insular gyrus, Lt. Rt. frontal lobe and mid-prefrontal lobe, these areas decresed blood flow as 15.21-15.64%. Girls ADHD decreased blood flow regions are Lt. cerebral insular gyrus, Lt. cerebral frontal and temporal lobe, Lt. Rt. lentiform nucleus and Lt. parietal lobe. And hypoperfusion rate is 30.57-30.85% in girls ADHD. The girls ADHD group's perfusion rate is more variable than boys. The studies about rCBF in ADHD, should be separate with boys and girls.

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Effect of Acupuncture on Regional Cerebral Blood Flow at Acupoints GV 20, GV. 26, LI. 4, ST. 36, SP. 6 Evaluated by Tc-99m ECD Brain SPECT (Tc-99m ECD 뇌혈류 SPECT를 이용한 백회, 인중, 합곡, 족삼리, 삼음교에서 체침의 뇌혈류에 대한 효과)

  • Song, Ho-Chun;Bom, Hee-Seung;Kang, Hwa-Jeong;Ahn, Soo-Gi;Kim, Seong-Min;Jeong, Hwan-Jeong;Kim, Ji-Yeul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.456-464
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: To evaluate the effect of acupuncture on regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) at acupoints suggested by oriental medicine to be related to the treatment of cerebrovascular diseases. Materials and Methods: Rest/acupuncture-stimulation Tc-99m ECD brain SPECT using a same-dose subtraction method was performed on 54 normal volunteers (34 males, 20 females, age range from 18 to 62 years) using six paradigms: acupuncture at acupoints GV. 20, GV. 26, LI. 4, ST. 36 and SP. 6. In the control study, needle location was chosen on a non-meridian focus 1 cm posterior to the right fibular head. All images were spatially normalized, and the differences between rest and acupuncture stimulation were statistically analyzed using SPM$^{(R)}$ for Windows$^{(R)}$. Results: Acupuncture applied at acupoint GV. 20 increased rCBF in both the anterior frontal lobes, the right frontotemporal lobes, and the left anterior temporal lobe and the left cerebellar hemisphere. Acupuncture at GV 26 increased rCBF in the left prefrontal cortex. Acupuncture at LI. 4 increased rCBF in the left prefrontal and both the inferior frontal lobes, and the left anterior temporal lobe and the left cerebellar hemisphere. Acupuncture at ST. 36 increased rCBF in the left anterior temporal lobe, the right inferior frontal lobes, and the left cerebellum. Acupuncture at SP. 6 increased rCBF in the left inferior frontal and anterior temporal lobes. In the control stimulation, no significant rCBF increase was observed. Conclusion: The results demonstrated a correlation between stimulation at each acupoint with increase in rCBF to the corresponding brain areas.

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Functional Brain Mapping Using $H_2^{15}O$ Positron Emission Tomography ( II ): Mapping of Human Working Memory ($H_2^{15}O$ 양전자단층촬영술을 이용한 뇌기능 지도 작성(II): 작업 기억의 지도 작성)

  • Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Dong-Soo;Lee, Sang-Kun;Nam, Hyun-Woo;Kim, Seok-Ki;Park, Kwang-Suk;Jeong, Jae-Min;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.238-249
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: To localize and compare the neural basis of verbal and visual human working memory, we performed functional activation study using $H_2^{15}O$ PET. Materials and Methods: Repeated $H_2^{15}O$ PET scans with one control and three different activation tasks were performed on six right-handed normal volunteers. Each activation task was composed of 13 match-ing trials. On each trial, four targets, a fixation dot and a probe were presented sequentially and subject's task was to press a response button to indicate whether or not the probe was one of the previous targets. Short meaningful Korean words, simple drawings and monochromic pictures of human faces were used as matching objects for verbal or visual memory. All the images were spatially normalized and the differences between control and activation states were statistically analyzed using SPM96. Results: Statistical analysis of verbal memory activation with short words showed activation in the left Broca's area, promoter cortex, cerebellum and right cingulate gyrus. In verbal memory with simple drawings, activation was shown in the larger regions including where activated with short words and left superior temporal cortex, basal ganglia, thalamus, prefrontal cortex, anterior portion of right superior temporal gyrus and right infero-lateral frontal cortex. On the other hand, the visual memory task activated predominantly right-sided structures, especially inferior frontal cortex, supplementary motor cortex and superior parietal cortex. Conclusion: The results are consistent with the hypothesis of the laterality and dissociation of the verbal and visual working memory from the invasive electrophysiological studies and emphasize the pivotal role of frontal cortex and cingulate gyrus in working memory system.

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