• 상하수도학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.241-249
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• 2009

It is well known that the trend of water demand in large-size water supply systems has been suddenly changed, and many expansions of water supply facilities become unnecessary. To be cost-effective, thus, politicians as well as many professionals lay stress on the adaptive management of water supply facilities. Failure in adapting to the new trend of demand is sure to be the most critical reason of unnecessary expansions. Hence, we try to develop the model and modeling procedure that do not depend on the old data of demand, and provide engineers with the fast learning process. To forecast water demand of Seoul, the Bayesian parameter estimation was applied, which is a representative method for statistical pattern recognition. It results that we can get a useful time-series model after observing water demand during 6 years, although trend of water demand were suddenly changed.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.123-130
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• 2002

본 논문은 사고관리방안 수행에 있어서 발생되는 인적오류의 정량적 평가방법을 개발하여 공동범람 사고관리방안의 예제문제에 적용한 연구결과를 기술하고있다. PSA에서 사용되었던 기존의 인간오류평가 방법론인 THERP, HCR, SLIM-MAUD 방법의 특징을 검토하여 장단점을 기술하였다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 인간오류평가 방법론은 신뢰도물리모델을 이용하는 새로운 HRA 분석방법이다. 불확실성 분석을 위하여 MAAP 코드와 LHS 코드가 사용되었다. 본 연구를 통하여 제안하는 방법은 매우 유연하여 중대사고관리방안과 관련한 다양한 인간오류행위에 대한 평가에 사용될 수 있음을 보여주었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.41-52
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• 2004

In this study, parameters of long and short term runoff model were optimized using genetic algorithm as a basic research for integrated water management in a watershed. In case of Korea where drought and flood occurr frequently, the integrated water management is necessary to minimize possible damage of drought and flood. Modified TANK model was optimized as a long term runoff model and storage-function model was optimized as a short term runoff model. Besides distinguished parameters were applied to modified TANK model for supplementing defect that the model estimates less runoff in the storm period. As a result of application, simulated long and short term runoff results showed 7% and 5% improvement compared with before optimized on the average. In case of modified TANK model using distinguished parameters, the simulated runoff after optimized showed more interrelationship than before optimized. Therefore, modified TANK model can be applied for the long term water balance as an integrated water management in a watershed. In case of storage-function model, simulated runoff in the storm period showed high interrelationship with observed one. These optimized models can be applied for the runoff analysis of watershed.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.87-110
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• 2006

In a hierarchical road network, all roads can be classified according to their attributes such as speed limit, number of lanes, etc. By splitting the whole road network into the subnetworks of the highlevel and low-level roads, we can reduce the size of the network to be calculated at once, and find a path in the way that drivers usually adopt when searching out a travel route. To exploit the hierarchical property of road networks, we define a convenient path and propose an algorithm for finding convenient paths. We introduce a parameter indicating the driver's tolerance to the difference between the length of a convenient path and that of a shortest convenient path. From this parameter, we can determine how far we have to search for the entering and exiting gateway. We also propose some techniques for reducing the number of pairs of entries and exits to be searched in a road network. A result of the computational experiment on a real road network is given to show the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.87-96
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to determine an optimal production time for economic production quantity model with preventive maintenance and random defective rate as the function of a machinery deteriorates. Methods: If a machinery shifts from "in-control" state to "out-of-control" state, a proportion of defective items being produced increases. It is assumed that time to state shift is a random variable and follows an arbitrary distribution. The elapsed time until process shift decreases stochastically as a production cycle repeats and quasi-renewal process is used to implement for production facilities to deteriorate. Results: When the exponential parameter for exponential distribution increases, the optimal production time increases. When Weibull distribution is considered, the optimal production time is closely affected by the shape parameter of Weibull distribution. Conclusion: A mathematical model is suggested to find optimal production time and optimal number of production cycles and numerical examples are implemented to validate the patterns for changes of optimal times under different parameters assumptions. The real application is implemented using the proposed approach.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
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• 제6권11호
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• pp.3097-3107
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• 1999

Recently many studies have been done on the Random Early Detection(RED) algorithm as an active queue management and congestion avoidance scheme in the Internet. In this paper we first overview the characteristics of RED and the modified RED algorithms in order to understand the current status of these studies. Then we analyze the RED dynamics by investigating how RED parameters affect router queue behavior. We show the cases when RED fails since it cannot react to queue state changes aggressively due to the deterministic use of its parameters. Based on the RED parameter analysis, we propose a self-adaptive algorithm to cope with this RED weakness. In this algorithm we make two parameters be adjusted themselves depending on the queue states. One parameter is the maximum probability to drop or mark the packet at the congestion state. This parameter can be adjusted to react the long burst of traffic, consequently reducing the congestion disaster. The other parameter is the queue weight which is also adjusted aggressively in order for the average queue size to catch up with the current queue size when the queue moves from the congestion state to the stable state.

• International Journal of Quality Innovation
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.109-118
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• 2005

The parameter design is the most emphasized measure by researchers for a new products development. It is critical for makers to achieve simultaneously in both the time-to-market production and the quality enhancement. However, there are difficulties in practical application, such as (1) complexity and nonlinear relationships co-existed among the system's inputs, outputs and control parameters, (2) interactions occurred among parameters, (3) where the adjustment factors of Taguchi's two-phase optimization procedure cannot be sure to exist in practice, and (4) for some reasons, the data became lost or were never available. For these incomplete data, the Taguchi methods cannot treat them well. Neural networks have a learning capability of fault tolerance and model free characteristics. These characteristics support the neural networks as a competitive tool in processing multivariable input-output implementation. The successful fields include diagnostics, robotics, scheduling, decision-making, prediction, etc. This research is a case study of spherical annealing model. In the beginning, an original model is used to pre-fix a model of parameter design. Then neural networks are introduced to achieve another model. Study results showed both of them could perform the highest spherical level of quality.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.345-353
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• 2008

In order to design storage-based non-point source management facilities, the aspect of statistical features of the entire precipitation time series should be considered since non-point source pollutions are delivered by continuous rainfall runoffs. The 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function instead of traditional single-parameter exponential probability density function is applied to represent the probabilistic features of long-term precipitation time series and model urban stormwater runoff. Finally, probability density functions of water quality control basin overflow are derived under two extreme intial conditions. The 31-year continuous precipitation time series recorded in Busan are analyzed to show that the 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function gives better resolution.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.141-153
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• 2012

In this study, we estimated probable precipitation amounts at the target year (2020, 2030, 2040) of 55 weather stations in Korea using the 24 hour annual maximum precipitation data from 1973 through 2009 which should be useful for management of agricultural reservoirs. Not only trend tests but also non-stationary tests were performed and non-stationary frequency analysis were conducted to all of 55 sites. Gumbel distribution was chosen and probability weighted moment method was used to estimate model parameters. The behavior of the mean of extreme precipitation data, scale parameter, and location parameter were analyzed. The probable precipitation amount at the target year was estimated by a non-stationary frequency analysis using the linear regression analysis for the mean of extreme precipitation data, scale parameter, and location parameter. Overall results demonstrated that the probable precipitation amounts using the non-stationary frequency analysis were overestimated. There were large increase of the probable precipitation amounts of middle part of Korea and decrease at several sites in Southern part. The non-stationary frequency analysis using a linear model should be applicable to relatively short projection periods.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.115-122
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• 2018

Software reliability has the greatest impact on computer system reliability and software quality. For this software reliability analysis, In this study, we compare and analyze the trends of the properties affecting the reliability according to the shape parameters of Erlang distribution based on the finite fault NHPP. Software failure time data were used to analyze software failure phenomena, the maximum likelihood estimation method was used for parameter estimation. As a result, it can be seen that the intensity function is effective because it shows a tendency to decrease with time when the shape parameters a = 1 and a = 3. However, the pattern of the mean value function showed an underestimation pattern for the true values when the shape parameters a = 1 and a = 2, but it was found to be more efficient when a = 3 because the error width from the true value was small. Also, in the reliability evaluation of the future mission time, the stable and high trend was shown when the shape parameters a = 1 and a = 3, but on the contrary, when a = 2, the reliability decreased with the failure time. Through this study, the property of finite fault NHPP Erlang model according to the change of shape parameter without existing research case was newly analyzed, and new research information that software developers can use as basic guideline was presented.