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http://dx.doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.5.141

Application of a Non-stationary Frequency Analysis Method for Estimating Probable Precipitation in Korea  

Kim, Gwang-Seob (경북대학교 건축토목공학부)
Lee, Gi-Chun (경북대학교 건축토목공학부)
Publication Information
Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers / v.54, no.5, 2012 , pp. 141-153 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, we estimated probable precipitation amounts at the target year (2020, 2030, 2040) of 55 weather stations in Korea using the 24 hour annual maximum precipitation data from 1973 through 2009 which should be useful for management of agricultural reservoirs. Not only trend tests but also non-stationary tests were performed and non-stationary frequency analysis were conducted to all of 55 sites. Gumbel distribution was chosen and probability weighted moment method was used to estimate model parameters. The behavior of the mean of extreme precipitation data, scale parameter, and location parameter were analyzed. The probable precipitation amount at the target year was estimated by a non-stationary frequency analysis using the linear regression analysis for the mean of extreme precipitation data, scale parameter, and location parameter. Overall results demonstrated that the probable precipitation amounts using the non-stationary frequency analysis were overestimated. There were large increase of the probable precipitation amounts of middle part of Korea and decrease at several sites in Southern part. The non-stationary frequency analysis using a linear model should be applicable to relatively short projection periods.
Keywords
Non-stationary Frequency Analysis; Probable Precipitation; Linear Regression; Gumbel Distribution; Annual Maximum Precipitation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
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