• Title/Summary/Keyword: Overestimation

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Comparison of event tree/fault tree and convolution approaches in calculating station blackout risk in a nuclear power plant

  • Man Cheol Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.141-146
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    • 2024
  • Station blackout (SBO) risk is one of the most significant contributors to nuclear power plant risk. In this paper, the sequence probability formulas derived by the convolution approach are compared with those derived by the conventional event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) approach for the SBO situation in which emergency diesel generators fail to start. The comparison identifies what makes the ET/FT approach more conservative and raises the issue regarding the mission time of a turbine-driven auxiliary feedwater pump (TDP), which suggests a possible modeling improvement in the ET/FT approach. Monte Carlo simulations with up-to-date component reliability data validate the convolution approach. The sequence probability of an alternative alternating current diesel generator (AAC DG) failing to start and the TDP failing to operate owing to battery depletion contributes most to the SBO risk. The probability overestimation of the scenario in which the AAC DG fails to run and the TDP fails to operate owing to battery depletion contributes most to the SBO risk overestimation determined by the ET/FT approach. The modification of the TDP mission time renders the sequence probabilities determined by the ET/FT approach more consistent with those determined by the convolution approach.

Development of the Modified Preprocessing Method for Pipe Wall Thinning Data in Nuclear Power Plants (원자력 발전소 배관 감육 측정데이터의 개선된 전처리 방법 개발)

  • Seong-Bin Mun;Sang-Hoon Lee;Young-Jin Oh;Sung-Ryul Kim
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.146-154
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    • 2023
  • In nuclear power plants, ultrasonic test for pipe wall thickness measurement is used during periodic inspections to prevent pipe rupture due to pipe wall thinning. However, when measuring pipe wall thickness using ultrasonic test, a significant amount of measurement error occurs due to the on-site conditions of the nuclear power plant. If the maximum pipe wall thinning rate is decided by the measured pipe wall thickness containing a significant error, the pipe wall thinning rate data have significant uncertainty and systematic overestimation. This study proposes preprocessing of pipe wall thinning measurement data using support vector machine regression algorithm. By using support vector machine, pipe wall thinning measurement data can be smoothened and accordingly uncertainty and systematic overestimation of the estimated pipe wall thinning rate data can be reduced.

Zero-suppressed ternary decision diagram algorithm for solving noncoherent fault trees in probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants

  • Woo Sik Jung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.2092-2098
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    • 2024
  • Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) plays a critical role in ensuring the safe operation of nuclear power plants. In PSA, event trees are developed to identify accident sequences that could lead to core damage. These event trees are then transformed into a core-damage fault tree, wherein the accident sequences are represented by usual and complemented logic gates representing failed and successful operations of safety systems, respectively. The core damage frequency (CDF) is estimated by calculating the minimal cut sets (MCSs) of the core-damage fault tree. Delete-term approximation (DTA) is commonly employed to approximately solve MCSs representing accident sequence logics from noncoherent core-damage fault trees. However, DTA can lead to an overestimation of CDF, particularly when fault trees contain many nonrare events. To address this issue, the present study introduces a new zero-suppressed ternary decision diagram (ZTDD) algorithm that averts the CDF overestimation caused by DTA. This ZTDD algorithm can optionally calculate MCSs with DTA or prime implicants (PIs) without any approximation from the core-damage fault tree. By calculating PIs, accurate CDF can be calculated. The present study provides a comprehensive explanation of the ZTDD structure, formula of the ZTDD algorithm, ZTDD minimization, probability calculation from ZTDD, strength of the ZTDD algorithm, and ZTDD application results. Results reveal that the ZTDD algorithm is a powerful tool that can quickly and accurately calculate CDF and drastically improve the safety of nuclear power plants.

Congruence in Leader and Follower Perceptions of Leader-Member Exchange: Relationships with Organizational Commitment and Perceptions of Organizational Politics (리더-구성원 교환관계에 대한 리더와 구성원 지각의 정합성: 조직정치지각과 정서적 조직몰입의 관계를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jae-Chun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.240-252
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    • 2016
  • The purposes of this paper examines the extant to which congruence in leader and follower rating of LMX quality is related to organizational commitment, and perceptions of organizational politics(POPs). A conceptual model is introduced that identifies four combinations of leader and follower LMX ratings of Cogliser et al.(2009): balanced/low LMX(low leader and follower LMX), balanced/high LMX(high leader and follower LMX), follower overestimation(low leader LMX/high follower LMX), follower underestimation(high leader LMX/low follower LMX). The summary of results based on a sample of 236 matched pairs of leaders and followers in KOREA is as follows: First, balanced/high LMX and follower overestimation were associated with relatively high levels of affective organizational commitment, and perceptions of organizational politics. However, follower underestimation and balanced/low LMX was related to low levels of follower outcomes. In particular, follower underestimation and balanced/low LMX were significantly different from balanced/high LMX and follower overestimation. Second, perceptions of organizational politics was negatively related to affective organizational commitment in the four LMX relationship types. Especially, the negative relationship between POPs and organizational commitment was stronger for people who are low as compared with high in LMX quality. Theoretical and practical implications of our findings as well as directions for future research are provided.

Scenario-Driven Verification Method for Completeness and Consistency Checking of UML Object-Oriented Analysis Model (UML 객체지향 분석모델의 완전성 및 일관성 진단을 위한 시나리오기반 검증기법)

  • Jo, Jin-Hyeong;Bae, Du-Hwan
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.211-223
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    • 2001
  • 본 논문에서 제안하는 시나리오기반 검증기법의 목적은 UML로 작성된 객체지향 분석모델의 완전성 및 일관성을 진단하는 것이다. 검증기법의 전체 절차는 요구분석을 위한 Use Case 모델링 과정에서 생성되는 Use Case 시나리오와 UML 분석모델로부터 역공학적 방법으로 도출된 객체행위 시나리오와의 상호참조과정 및 시나리오 정보트리 추적과정을 이용하여 단계적으로 수행된다. 본 검증절차를 위하여 우선, UML로 작성된 객체지향 분석모델들은 우선 정형명세언어를 사용하여 Use Case 정형명세로 변환하다. 그 다음에, Use Case 정형명세로부터 해당 Use Case 내의 객체의 정적구조를 표현하는 시나리오 정보트리를 구축하고, Use Case 정형명세 내에 포함되어 있는 객체 동적행위 정보인 메시지 순차에 따라 개별 시나리오흐름을 시나리오 정보트리에 표현한다. 마지막으로 시나리오 정보트리 추적과 시나리오 정보 테이블 참조과정을 중심으로 완전성 및 일관성 검증작업을 수행한다. 즉, 검증하고자 하는 해당 Use Case의 시나리오 정보트리를 이용한 시나리오 추적과정을 통해 생성되는 객체행위 시나리오와 요구분석 과정에서 도출되는 Use Case 시나리오와의 일치여부를 조사하여 분석모델과 사용자 요구사양과의 완전성을 검사한다. 그리고, 시나리오 추적과정을 통해 수집되는 시나리오 관련종보들을 가지고 시나리오 정보 테이블을 작성한 후, 분석과정에서 작성된 클래스 관련정보들의 시나리오 포함 여부를 확인하여 분석모델의 일관성을 검사한다. 한편, 본 논문에서 제안하는 검증기법의 효용성을 증명하기 위해 대학의 수강등록시스템 개발을 위해 UML을 이용해 작성된 분석모델을 특정한 사례로써 적용하여 보았다. 프로세싱 오버헤드 및 메모리와 대역폭 요구량 측면에서 MARS 모델보다 유리함을 알 수 있었다.과는 본 논문에서 제안된 프리페칭 기법이 효율적으로 peak bandwidth를 줄일 수 있다는 것을 나타낸다.ore complicate such a prediction. Although these overestimation sources have been attacked in many existing analysis techniques, we cannot find in the literature any description about questions like which one is most important. Thus, in this paper, we quantitatively analyze the impacts of overestimation sources on the accuracy of the worst case timing analysis. Using the results, we can identify dominant overestimation sources that should be analyzed more accurately to get tighter WCET estimations. To make our method independent of any existing analysis techniques, we use simulation based methodology. We have implemented a MIPS R3000 simulator equipped with several switches, each of which determines the accuracy level of the

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Analysis of Hot Forming Process with Flow Softening by Dynamic Recrystallization (동적 재결정에 의한 연화를 고려한 열간성험공정 해석)

  • 방원규;이종수;장영원
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2001
  • The change of flow stress due to dynamic recrystallization during hot forming process is investigated. A series of mechanical tests has been conducted at various temperatures, and constitutive relations and recrystallization kinetics were formulated from the test results. The effect of dynamic recrystallization to the flow stress was implemented to a commercial FEM code by conditioned remapping of state variables. The datum strain of stress compensation was optimized to minimize the overestimation of forming loads. Suggested datum was formulated as an exclusive function of critical strain for recrystallizalion and validated by mechanical tests and microstructural observations.

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Microscopic Overestimation of Heterotrophic Bacteria in Open Waters of China Seas

  • Jiao, Nian-Zhi;Yang, Yan-Hui;Koshikawa, Hiroshi;Harada, Shigeki;Watanabe, Masataka
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.899-901
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    • 2001
  • Comparison of the abundances of heterotrophic bacteria in the East and South China Seas by stanctard epifluorescence was miscounted as heterotrophic bacteria in DAPI stained samples. This could result in 5-31% oversestimations of heterotrophic bacterial abundance in the study areas.

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Study on the Flare Load Estimation of the Deethanizer using Dynamic Simulation (동적 모사를 이용한 에탄 분리탑의 플레어 용량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kyungtae;Won, Wangyun;Shin, Dongil
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.613-619
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    • 2014
  • A flare system is a very important system that crucially affects on the process safety in chemical plants. If a flare system is designed too small, it cannot prevent catastrophic accidents of a chemical plant. On the other hand, if a flare system is designed too large, it will waste resources. Therefore, reasonable relief load estimation has been a crucial issue in the industry. American Petroleum Institute (API) suggests basic guidelines for relief load estimation, and a lot of engineering companies have developed their own relief load estimation methods that use an unbalanced heat and material method. However, these methods have to involve lots of conservative assumptions that lead to an overestimation of relief loads. In this study, the new design procedure for a flare system based on dynamic simulation was proposed in order to avoid the overestimation of relief loads. The relief load of a deethanizer process was tested to verify the performance of the proposed design procedure.

Body image distortion in fifth and sixth grade students may lead to stress, depression, and undesirable dieting behavior

  • Cho, Jin-Hee;Han, Sung-Nim;Kim, Jung-Hee;Lee, Hong-Mie
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.175-181
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    • 2012
  • The widespread pursuit of a thin physique may have a detrimental impact on the wellbeing of preadolescents. The influence of body image distortions on the lifestyles, dieting behaviors, and psychological factors was investigated in 631 fifth and sixth grade children in Kyeonggi-do, Korea. Children were classified into three weight groups (underweight, normal, and overweight) and three perception groups (underestimation, normal, and overestimation). Necessary information was obtained by questionnaire, and each subject's weight status was determined by the Rohrer index calculated from the annual measurement records, which were obtained from the school. According to their current weights, 57.4% of children were normal and 32.2% were overweight or obese, 16.6% of the children overestimated their body weight, and 55.2% had an undistorted body image. Overweight children had desirable lifestyles and dietary habits and presented reasonable weight control behaviors. Compared to those without distortion, the overestimated group had greater interest in weight control ($P$ = 0.003) and dissatisfaction with their body weights ($P$ = 0.011), presented unhealthy reasons to lose weight ($P$ = 0.026), and had higher scores for "feeling sad when comparing own body with others" ($P$ = 0.000) and for "easily getting annoyed and tired" ($P$ = 0.037), even though they had similar obesity indices. More subjects from the overestimation group ($P$ = 0.006) chose drama/movies as their favorite TV programs, suggesting a possible role for the media in body image distortion. These findings suggest that body image distortion can lead preadolescents to develop stress about obesity and unhealthy dieting practices, despite similar obesity indices to those without distorted body images. These results emphasize the importance of having an undistorted body image.

Spectro-Temporal Filtering Based on Soft Decision for Stereophonic Acoustic Echo Suppression (스테레오 음향학적 에코 제거를 위한 Soft Decision 기반 필터 확장 기법)

  • Lee, Chul Min;Bae, Soo Hyun;Kim, Jeung Hun;Kim, Nam Soo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.39C no.12
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    • pp.1346-1351
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    • 2014
  • We propose a novel approach for stereophonic acoustic echo suppression using spectro-temporal filtering based on soft decision. Unlike the conventional approaches estimating the echo pathes directly, the proposed technique can estimate stereo echo spectra without any double-talk detector. In order to improve the estimation of echo spectra, the extended power spectrum density matrix and echo overestimation control matrix are applied on this method. In addition, this echo suppression technique is based on soft decision technique using speech absence probability in STFT domain. Experimental results show that the proposed method improves compared with the conventional approaches.